Vote Choice Research Articles

Basic personal values and vote choice in 20 European countries

Employing European Social Survey data (ESS Round 7) from 20 countries ( N = 20,464), we tested several pre-registered hypotheses regarding the associations between basic personal values—as conceptualized by Schwartz’ Values Theory—and vote choice in national elections. To operationalize vote choice, we relied on the Chapel Hill Experts Survey for expert ratings of party positioning on ideology, policy, and populism. Personal values, and particularly universalism, were associated with the cultural gal-tan (green-alternative-liberal vs. traditional-authoritarian-nationalist) dimension (8% shared variance) and the economic left-right dimension (4% shared variance). The associations with gal-tan were even stronger when the dimension was salient in the party agenda. Associations between specific policy positions (e.g., multiculturalism, redistribution) and values were very similar to those between values and ideology. Voting populist was weakly associated with lower universalism and higher security (1% shared variance). The associations were generally stronger among the more educated and in western European countries. Our results suggest that Universalism values could help explain why the “left” and the “gal” poles tend to go together and are also more generally consistent with accounts of political conflict and cleavage centered around cultural issues and rooted in values.

Dimensions of Participation and Populism in Times of Discontent: A Theory- and Data-Driven Approach

We know that populism influences turnout and vote choice. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how populism drives broader participation patterns. In this study, we argue that populist citizens are more likely to participate in politics beyond the electoral arena because they hold specific political grievances. Extant literature highlights the multidimensionality of participation but remains ambiguous about how many or what dimensions it entails. We rely on an unprecedented 16-item participation battery from a comparative survey in nine European countries to design distinct theoretical and empirical lenses through which to examine the relationship between populist attitudes and political participation. The former relies on operationalisations from the literature that are confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis, while the latter relies on latent class analysis. Both frameworks return similar results, highlighting that populist citizens are effectively more likely to participate across the board, regardless of the form or classification of political participation.

Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Survey Overestimation of Voter Turnout

Abstract Research has consistently demonstrated that Black respondents are more likely than their White counterparts to overstate their plans or previous decisions to vote. We propose that by using a single question regarding turnout intention and candidate preference (rather than the typical approach of using two separate questions), survey researchers can reduce these racial asymmetries. The reason, we suggest, is that doing so encourages Black respondents to consider the turnout question through the lens of candidates and parties, rather than as a civic responsibility they have toward other Black Americans, which therefore mitigates the social desirability bias that leads to overestimation. We evaluate this argument using a survey experiment that randomly asks a control group of survey respondents to answer two voting questions—one about turnout and one about vote choice—and asks the other half of the sample, the treatment group, a single question that combines the two. Using original data from a nationally representative survey, we find that using the single turnout/preference question reduces the racial asymmetry in turnout overestimation substantially. We further observe that the decrease is concentrated among respondents with relatively high levels of campaign indifference and especially racial civic consciousness, a condition that is much more common among Black respondents than among White respondents. We believe these findings are particularly relevant to election scholars and campaign professionals, given their focus on understanding the thought processes of survey respondents and prospective voters, as well as improving the validity of self-reports in survey research.

The politics of teachers' union endorsements

AbstractSchool board candidates supported by local teachers' unions overwhelmingly win, and we examine the causes and consequences of the “teachers' union premium” in these elections. First, we show that union endorsement information increases voter support. Although the magnitude of this effect varies across ideological and partisan subgroups, an endorsement rarely hurts a candidate's prospects with the electorate. Second, we benchmark the size of the endorsement premium to other well‐known determinants of vote choice in local elections. Perhaps surprisingly, we show the effect can be as large as the impact of shared partisanship, and substantially larger than the boost from endorsements provided by other stakeholders. Finally, examining real‐world endorsement decisions, we find that union support for incumbents hinges on self‐interested pecuniary considerations and is unaffected by performance in improving student academic outcomes. The divergence between what endorsements mean and how voters interpret them has troubling normative democratic implications.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

Communicative Democracy and Voter Choice: Evidence From a Conjoint Analysis in Taiwan

While prior scholarship has dedicated substantial attention to theoretically discussing communicative democracy, there has been a notable dearth of empirical research examining its political implications. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by exploring the impact of prioritizing communicative democracy in policy-making on electoral support. Through a conjoint experiment conducted in Taiwan, this study finds that candidates who emphasize communicative democracy, characterized by transparent communication, active engagement, and meaningful dialogue, are more likely to be chosen by voters over those who focus on majority rule. This preference highlights a broader desire for inclusivity and policies reflecting diverse viewpoints. As the first empirical investigation, the findings contribute to our understanding of voter values around communication and inclusivity in democracy, indicating a shift toward valuing collaborative policy development.

Conditional single-issue political entrepreneurship: The impact of education and attitudinal predictors on support for the Finns Party

This study explores support for the populist far-right Finns Party in the 2023 Finnish parliamentary election. In the 2023 election, the Finns Party obtained their largest historical vote share, which led to the party's inclusion in the current coalition government. Utilizing an original, nationally representative survey, we find that Finns Party support can mainly be explained by political entrepreneurship and the attraction of voters holding anti-immigrant sentiment. While we find that other attitudes had some relationship with Finns Party support, the substantive impact of these attitudes is far less substantial than are attitudes towards immigrants. Further, we find that the impact of attitudes towards immigrants and Finns Party vote choice intention is conditional on education level. Attitudes towards immigrants have a more limited impact on Finns Party support for respondents at higher education levels when compared with those at lower levels. The findings hold significance for the broader literature on populist parties, demonstrating that education can significantly diminish the translation of anti-immigration attitudes into support for far-right parties.

Overlooked de- and realignment? Cohort differences in consideration sets

While it is established that core values and voting behaviour persistently differ between birth cohorts, less is known about the consideration set stage that lies between those two points of the electoral decision. However, studying cohort differences in the consideration stage can help even better to detect underlying cohort-driven transformations of the electoral decision than the final vote choice. This article thus studies this ‘overlooked’ stage: Do newer cohorts consider voting for more parties than earlier cohorts? And how does the composition of the consideration sets differ? These questions are analysed by using data from the European Election Studies, covering thirty years and fifteen countries. APC-mixed-regressions show that newer cohorts are more likely to include more parties in their consideration sets. Furthermore, cohort differences exist regarding which parties are represented in consideration sets. Those results have important implications for understanding cohort-driven de- and realignment, as well as increasing trends of volatility.

Negative Campaigning and Vote Choice: Rationale, Trends, and Future Research

Negative campaigning is a worldwide phenomenon. As a strategy for mobilizing support, it affects the electorate and democracy. However, its effectiveness varies across space and time. While some studies assert that negativity depresses voter turnout, thereby delegitimizing the electoral process, others provide conflicting results that such campaigns mobilize voters since they supply information critical for their participation. There are three nuanced outcomes resulting from negative campaigning: the target electoral support diminishes; the attacker in a negative campaign experiences a backlash; or, when multiple candidates or parties compete, a negative effect on the target of the attack, coupled with a backlash effect on the attacker, may benefit the other candidates, who refrained from going negative. This article reviews the state of the scholarship on negative campaigning and its impact on democracy. It sheds light on a rapidly evolving field of political science and communication research.

When everyone is corrupt, no one is? Examining the effects of widespread corruption on electoral behavior*

ABSTRACT Corruption scandals can be costly for elected officials seeking re-election. But what happens when the other candidate alternatives are also known to be corrupt? Do voters downplay the importance of corruption in their vote decision when corruption is widespread? Also, how does it affect their engagement with the electoral process? Are voters more likely to abstain or cast null or blank votes when presented with corrupt candidates? In this paper, we contribute to a flourishing literature that focuses on the importance of clean electoral alternatives to tackle these questions. We do so by adopting an innovative vignette experiment that we apply to a large sample of adult Brazilians where we manipulate the availability of candidate alternatives in a mock election. We find that as the availability of honest candidate alternatives decreases, the lower the electoral engagement and the importance given to corruption on vote choice.

Why do majoritarian systems benefit the right? Income groups and vote choice across different electoral systems – ERRATUM

Why do majoritarian systems benefit the right? Income groups and vote choice across different electoral systems – ERRATUM

Did voters" evaluations of the major parties" nominees influence their vote choice?

Did voters" evaluations of the major parties" nominees influence their vote choice?

Individual Electoral Competitiveness: Undecided voters, complex choice environments and lower turnout

The number of citizens that are undecided in their vote choice has risen in Western democracies. Polling in Britain shows that a significant proportion of the population do not know who they will vote for. Against a backdrop of partisan dealignment and party system fragmentation, there are more parties on the ballot and more citizens ‘free to choose’. Partisanship continues to be important for voting and lacking an identity is a predictor of aggregate voter volatility. A growing literature conceptualises this availability of voters as individual-level electoral competitiveness, stating that undecided citizens are subject to high levels of competition for their vote. I use this framework and apply theory from the decisionmaking literature to offer why these conditions may depress turnout. I construct a measure of undecided voters who are ‘in competition’ and show that this accounts for 40% of the British Election Study Internet Panel respondents. I demonstrate that those who are in competition are less likely to vote. They are more often those without a partisan identity and those who pay less attention to politics, but being in competition is not related to constituency marginality. The results help explain a key determinant of abstention in British elections and suggest low levels of participation may be due to complex choice environments and citizen indecision. However, they provide a positive outlook for pluralistic democracy as voters do deliberate between the party perspectives on offer.

Whitewashing Women Voters: Intersectionality and Partisan Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Whitewashing Women Voters: Intersectionality and Partisan Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

West Lothians in the European Parliament? Diverging Vote Choices in Cases of Differentiated Integration

West Lothians in the European Parliament? Diverging Vote Choices in Cases of Differentiated Integration

Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections

Abstract Presidential elections are arguably the most consequential recurring political event in the United States. Understanding the factors that determine their outcomes, therefore, is of substantial importance. One proposed factor pertains to presidential candidates' incumbency status, yet its nature is complex and difficult to study with observational data. In particular, the individual-level mechanisms underlying incumbency effects remain unclear. This study proposes many citizens generally believe that, ceteris paribus, presidents should be afforded two terms. Crucially, such a norm implies that incumbency status possesses an inherent effect, operating independent of other mechanisms that may stem from incumbency. A large, pre-registered survey experiment was therefore employed to isolate the effect of incumbency status on presidential vote choice. The experiment finds strong evidence that one-term incumbent candidates have an inherent advantage against their non-incumbent opponents. The results also clarify that the two-term disadvantage present in observational data is not inherent, and is perhaps better understood simply as the absence of the one-term advantage. The study thus points toward a micro-foundational mechanism underlying incumbent-party performance in presidential elections. Finally, analyses of panel data explore which voters may be systematically inclined to vote based upon the incumbency status of presidential candidates.

Political Effects of Exposure to Evidence about Racial Discrimination

ABSTRACT Evidence of discrimination against African Americans, based on high-quality field experiments, has become clearer, easier to communicate, and harder to counterargue. In two experimental studies, we use this development to empirically evaluate two effects of evidence about discrimination. First, we test whether exposure to this evidence about discrimination against African Americans influences Whites’ belief in discrimination and racial resentment, contributing to the scholarship on interventions to reduce prejudice. Second, we provide an experimental test to further explore observational studies showing that denial or downplaying of discrimination against African Americans influences vote choice in recent elections.

Cost misperception and voting for public goods

AbstractPublic good provision is often determined through referendums by voters, who weigh benefits against costs. However, perceptions of benefits and costs may be incorrect, which could in turn lead to voter error and misallocation of public goods. Using real‐world referendums, we evaluate voter perceptions of the private costs of providing public goods by conducting three exit polls of New England voters and an online survey of California voters. By comparing cost perceptions to actual tax incidence, we find pervasive evidence that voters misperceive costs. Fewer than 20% of voters in our samples reported perceived costs within 25% of estimated actual costs. These findings are unsurprising given the ubiquity of opaque language explaining the financial consequences of public good referendums. In addition, our analysis suggests that actual costs have no statistical bearing on voter choice, but at least in the New England sample, voter approval is affected by perceived costs. Thus, a substantial proportion of voters are making decisions based in part on inaccurate costs, which in some cases lead to people voting against their preferences and potential misallocation of public funds. Further, researchers who match voter approval with estimated actual cost are unlikely to obtain accurate cost responsiveness or valuation estimates.

Anonymous voting using distributed ledger-assisted secure multi-party computation

High voter turnout in elections and referendums is desirable to ensure a robust democracy. Secure electronic voting is a vision for the future of elections and referendums. Such a system can counteract factors hindering strong voter turnout such as the requirement of physical presence during limited hours at polling stations. However, this vision brings transparency and confidentiality requirements that render the design of such solutions challenging. Specifically, the counting implementation must support reproducibility, and the choice of individual voters must remain confidential. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a novel referendum protocol that ensures transparency, confidentiality, and integrity, in trustless networks. The protocol is built by combining secure multi-party computation and distributed ledger technology, e.g., a Blockchain. The persistence and immutability of the protocol communication allow verifiability of the referendum outcome by any participant. Voters therefore do not need to trust third parties. We provide a formal description and conduct a thorough security evaluation of our proposal.

A tale of two cities: spillover effects of electoral shocks in non-democratic regimes

ABSTRACT Electoral shocks have spillover effects in democracies, as they can change citizens’ political attitudes and political behaviour across national borders. Yet, electoral shocks also exist in non-democratic regimes. Do electoral shocks likewise lead to spillover within a non-democratic regime? To explore this question, I build on Lohmann’s idea of information cascade and study the spillover of the 2019 Hong Kong local election, in which the opposition won a landslide victory. Using a survey fielded in Macau during this event, I find liberalizing effects among middle-class citizens: after the electoral shock, their democratic commitment increases while their perceived electoral fairness decreases. Conversely, lower-class citizens experience backlash effects as they assess the electoral system more positively and briefly consider democracy as less important. However, these changes in political attitudes do not translate into changes in expressed vote choice and other types of political participation. Regarding the mechanism of the attitudinal change, I suggest such polarized reactions are related to the different information consumption among the two classes. I discuss how these findings contribute to the literature on non-democratic regimes, electoral shocks, and class politics.