Vote Choice Research Articles

The Activation of Anti-Asian Attitudes on Vote Choice

AbstractPolitical science research has assessed how racial attitudes influence political behavior. However, less is known about the political effects of anti-Asian views, even as anti-Asian sentiment resurfaced during the pandemic. We theorize that the linkage of COVID-19 to Asian Americans by political elites activated anti-Asian animosity and shaped vote choice during the 2020 election. Using cross-sectional over time and panel data from the American National Election Studies, we find that holding more anti-Asian attitudes was not associated with Republican vote choice between 2008–2016, including when Donald Trump first ran. However, anti-Asian views became strongly related to voting for Trump in 2020. Further panel analysis demonstrates evidence that anti-Asian views measured prior in 2016 increased the likelihood of vote switching to the Republican Party in 2020. We conclude by discussing the potentially persisting political effects of anti-Asian attitudes in an environment continuously characterized by anti-Asian hate and especially during future election cycles that may feature increasingly diverse candidates of Asian heritage, running for elective office across various levels of government—including for the presidency. This study contributes to research on how and when racial attitudes influence political behavior and suggests, again, the centrality of race and ethnicity in American Politics.

The dual process of prejudice: racism, nationalism, and sexism in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

IntroductionModern racism, nationalism, and sexism have been proposed as major influences on contemporary U.S. politics. However, most work has not examined these interrelated factors together. Thus, it is unclear to what extent each form of prejudice uniquely contributes to political behavior. Furthermore, the potential motivations underlying the link between prejudice and politics have not been well elucidated. We sought to (1) determine the extent to which racism, sexism, and nationalism were uniquely associated with political outcomes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election and (2) use the dual-process motivational model to examine whether social dominance orientation (SDO) and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) were potential motivations underlying the link between prejudice and political attitudes and behavior.MethodsA national sample of U.S. adults (N = 531) completed online questionnaires before and after the 2020 U.S. election. Structural equation modeling was used to test mediational models in which SDO and RWA prospectively predicted presidential candidate evaluations and vote choice indirectly through racism, sexism, and nationalism.ResultsWhen examined in conjunction, modern racism (not sexism or nationalism) was consistently associated with evaluations of both candidates and vote choice. Furthermore, SDO and RWA both exerted indirect effects on candidate evaluations and vote choice through modern racism.DiscussionThese results are aligned with previous findings indicating that racism plays a unique role in U.S. politics and may be motivated by status threat experienced by some majority group members.

The Politics of Social Welfare: The BJP and the Discerning Voter

Voting studies tell us that voters reward incumbents who take care of the economic self-interest of voters. However, is the relationship between services and votes simple and straightforward? Are there conditions when welfare provisioning does not convert into votes for the incumbent? Data from the National Election Studies 2024 appears to suggest that voters are discerning and concerned about access issues when it comes to welfare delivery. Voters do not cast their votes only on whether they received private (welfare) benefits but also consider factors such as their experience and well-being while accessing those goods and services. Examining the relationship between welfare services and voting, the article demonstrates that individual-level processes are politically significant enough to influence vote choices between the benefits and the votes. These findings could inform scholarly studies and policy debates on social service delivery and vote choice.

Not in the mood for party: Symptoms of depression reduce the weight of partisanship on vote choice

Not in the mood for party: Symptoms of depression reduce the weight of partisanship on vote choice

Is Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht A New Alternative for Populist Voters?

Abstract In just five months, Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) progressed from its foundation to winning six seats in the European Parliament. Research has indicated that the party has significant potential, particularly among voters of Germany’s two populist parties: Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Die Linke. Since BSW is also classified as a populist party, this article explores the extent to which populist attitudes influence the vote choice preference for BSW. The analysis employs a three-dimensional populism scale, using data from a VAA-like website. The results reveal that voters intending to vote for BSW exhibit strong anti-elitist and people-centric views, but do not hold Manichean outlooks. This positions BSW voters ideologically between Die Linke and AfD voters in terms of populist ideation – albeit closer to the AfD, reflecting the party-level populism of BSW. Additionally, populist attitudes, particularly anti-elitism, are significant predictors of vote-switching from other parties to BSW.

Bayesian approach and demo ethical foundations for sustainability: Reassessing the role of democracy in achieving equitable social transformation and sustainable development goals

This article is devoted to studying the principles of the relationship between democracy and demo ethics as tools for transforming the sustainable development of society. The study is based on the assumption that the effective functioning of democracy is associated with such social phenomena as elections and electoral behavior. The study examined electoral behavior and surveyed members of society about the qualities of candidates to which they pay special attention. An analysis of qualitative and quantitative data demonstrating the democratic foundations of elections of members of society was conducted, and an analysis of the choice of voters in the extraordinary elections of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan by region was conducted. In this study, Bayesian network modeling is experimentally applied to formalize the problem of identifying and analyzing the behavior of virtuous personality traits. A sociological survey of public opinion was conducted using the questionnaire method with the participation of 826 people from all regions of Kazakhstan from May to June 2023. A questionnaire was used to collect data, the main purpose of which was to compare attitudes and find out what values are considered important for people, what norms of behavior are considered acceptable, and to understand what values and norms prevail in society. It is concluded that the concept of demo ethics promotes a positive transformation of humanity and helps to form a new leader of virtue, a ruler of the city, capable of making ethical rational decisions that can ensure a balance between the economic, social, and environmental needs of humanity.

Exposure to Partisan News and Its Impact on Social Polarization and Vote Choice: Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Elections

Studies have found limited evidence consistent with the theory that partisan and like-minded online news exposure have demonstrable effects on political outcomes. Most of this prior research, however, has focused on the particular case of the United States even as concern elsewhere in the world has grown about political parallelism in media content online, which has sometimes been blamed for heightened social divisiveness. This article investigates the impact of online partisan news consumption on voting behavior and social polarization during the 2022 elections in Brazil, a country where the public’s ties to political parties have historically been more limited or nonexistent but where ideologically aligned news content online has markedly increased in recent years. Drawing on a unique dataset linking behavioral web-tracking data of 2,200 internet users in Brazil and 4 survey waves with the same respondents, conducted before, during, and after the 2022 presidential elections, we find no significant relationship between the use of partisan media on either vote choice or social polarization overall; however, we do find some weak and inconsistent effects of trust in news moderating the impact of partisan media on social polarization.

The Effects of Personality Traits, Environmental Attitudes, and Demographic Factors on Green Party Support in Canada

Abstract By appealing to public concern over environmental issues, Green parties have emerged to gain secure positions in several party systems. However, in Canada, we know very little about why people support the Green Party. This research note draws upon the Canadian Election Study (CES) to explore the ways in which demographic factors, personality traits and individual environmentalism impact vote choice. Theorizing Green Party support as a form of pro-environmental behaviour, we build a model that tests the impact of demographic factors and personality traits as mediated through environmental attitudes. It finds that, while pro-environmental policy attitudes are the strongest predictor of Green Party support, several demographic factors and personality traits—specifically conscientiousness, openness to experience, agreeableness and extraversion—have an effect.

The Great Transition Towards Populism in Indian Politics: Populist Attitudes and Populist Radical Right (PRR) Voting in the 2019 Indian General Election

While extant research has identified several determinants of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s unprecedented victory in the 2019 general election, they have overlooked the party’s populist radical right (PRR) nature, particularly under the leadership of Narendra Modi. Based on the demand side of PRR voting, this article examines the effect of Indian voters’ populist attitudes on their voting choices for the BJP during the 2019 election. Using binary logistic regression (BLR) and conducting a robustness check, this article identifies that the variable of individuals’ populist attitudes does indeed exert a significant effect on their vote choices for the BJP during the 2019 election. In addition to this main variable, a number of controls that were included in the analysis were also found to be significantly correlated with the dependent variable. In light of the findings, the article proposes some theoretical implications.

Did sexist voters bring Italy its first female Prime Minister?

We examined the role of hostile sexism in vote at the 2022 general election in Italy, where the largest among center-right parties was led by a woman, Giorgia Meloni. We analyzed data from a sample of 1635 voters who participated in the 2022 ITANES survey. Hostile sexism was associated with male gender, lower education, higher religiosity, and right-wing orientation. As to vote choice, hostile sexism was positively associated with vote for Brothers of Italy and the other center-right parties. However, such association was significantly moderated by the evaluation of Giorgia Meloni, and disappeared among voters with a positive evaluation of her. Discussion focusses on the interplay between gender-related attitudes and candidate-based heuristics in vote choice.

How attitudes towards independence reshaped Scottish elections: A longitudinal analysis (1999–2021)

AbstractBritish and Scottish politics are undergoing a period of tumultuous change, leading to what some scholars have labelled ‘electoral shocks’, which have altered the relative importance of the main issues explaining citizens' political behaviour. The conventional wisdom now posits that attitudes towards Scottish independence play an increasing role in structuring citizens' vote choice in Scotland. However, a longitudinal assessment of this claim is lacking. In this research, we seek to fill this gap by making use of data from 1999 to 2021, which covers every Scottish election since devolution, and providing the first‐ever systematic assessment of the strength of attitudes towards Scottish independence in explaining electoral behaviour over time. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in the importance of attitudes towards independence, which we can quantify throughout the 1999–2021 period. We conclude by discussing the implications of this for British and Scottish politics.

Populist votes, orientations, and the COVID‐19 pandemic in Italy: A latent growth study

AbstractObjectiveWe aimed to predict the trend of populist orientations and votes in Italy before and during the COVID‐19 pandemic.MethodUsing the Consequences of COVID‐19 (COCO) data set (quota sample of the Italian adult population), we conducted a 3.5‐year, seven‐wave longitudinal study, with one wave before the pandemic (June 2019) and six waves during the pandemic (April and October 2020, April and October 2021, and April and October 2022).ResultsTwo latent growth analyses have shown that in the period we considered the degree of populism of the party chosen for the vote decreased linearly; this change was positively associated with the anxiety of the participants. Conversely, populist orientations remained stable.ConclusionThe COVID‐19 pandemic plausibly contributed to a superficial and temporary halt to the long populist wave that hit Italy in the last decades, as demonstrated by the decrease in populist vote choices concomitant with a persistent substrate of populist orientations.

Vote choice in the context of lethal police violence: A research note

Do police-caused deaths predict presidential vote choice in the US? This study explores the relationship between lethal police violence and vote choice in the 2020 presidential election using individual-level data from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study (CES), which has been linked with aggregate-level data on police killings, civilian homicide rates, and socioeconomic, political, and public health characteristics. Consistent with the issue ownership theory of voting, this study finds that voters living in areas characterized by lethal police violence are significantly more likely to vote for the Democratic Party above and beyond their individual-level attributes and other contextual conditions. These findings and supplemental analyses raise critical questions concerning the political salience of fatal force in presidential races in the post-2020 era. Findings also support the need for further criminological inquiry into the effects of different forms of violence on American political behavior.

The Role of Misogyny in the 2022 Korean Presidential Election: Understanding the Backlash against Feminism in Industrialized Democracies

Abstract Despite increasing scholarly attention to backlash against feminism, little is known about anti-feminist movements in East Asia. This study examines the 2022 South Korean presidential election campaign, in which the political parties sought to capitalize on political resistance to the perceived advance of feminism. This embrace of male grievance as a political force was arguably led by former People Power Party (PPP) chairman Lee Jun-seok, leading commenters to argue that support for Lee is rooted in misogyny. We examine this claim empirically by drawing on a novel survey to estimate the association between misogynistic attitudes, measured through devaluation, perception of women as manipulative, and distrust, and support for Lee. We find that misogynistic attitudes are positively correlated with support for Lee, but not with presidential vote choice. We interpret this as suggesting that the association between misogyny and support for Lee is a manifestation of the desire for symbolic representation. We discuss the implications of how this association can further influence the gender divide, both in Korea and beyond, and conclude with recommendations for further research.

Basic personal values and vote choice in 20 European countries

Employing European Social Survey data (ESS Round 7) from 20 countries ( N = 20,464), we tested several pre-registered hypotheses regarding the associations between basic personal values—as conceptualized by Schwartz’ Values Theory—and vote choice in national elections. To operationalize vote choice, we relied on the Chapel Hill Experts Survey for expert ratings of party positioning on ideology, policy, and populism. Personal values, and particularly universalism, were associated with the cultural gal-tan (green-alternative-liberal vs. traditional-authoritarian-nationalist) dimension (8% shared variance) and the economic left-right dimension (4% shared variance). The associations with gal-tan were even stronger when the dimension was salient in the party agenda. Associations between specific policy positions (e.g., multiculturalism, redistribution) and values were very similar to those between values and ideology. Voting populist was weakly associated with lower universalism and higher security (1% shared variance). The associations were generally stronger among the more educated and in western European countries. Our results suggest that Universalism values could help explain why the “left” and the “gal” poles tend to go together and are also more generally consistent with accounts of political conflict and cleavage centered around cultural issues and rooted in values.

Dimensions of Participation and Populism in Times of Discontent: A Theory- and Data-Driven Approach

We know that populism influences turnout and vote choice. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how populism drives broader participation patterns. In this study, we argue that populist citizens are more likely to participate in politics beyond the electoral arena because they hold specific political grievances. Extant literature highlights the multidimensionality of participation but remains ambiguous about how many or what dimensions it entails. We rely on an unprecedented 16-item participation battery from a comparative survey in nine European countries to design distinct theoretical and empirical lenses through which to examine the relationship between populist attitudes and political participation. The former relies on operationalisations from the literature that are confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis, while the latter relies on latent class analysis. Both frameworks return similar results, highlighting that populist citizens are effectively more likely to participate across the board, regardless of the form or classification of political participation.

Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Survey Overestimation of Voter Turnout

Abstract Research has consistently demonstrated that Black respondents are more likely than their White counterparts to overstate their plans or previous decisions to vote. We propose that by using a single question regarding turnout intention and candidate preference (rather than the typical approach of using two separate questions), survey researchers can reduce these racial asymmetries. The reason, we suggest, is that doing so encourages Black respondents to consider the turnout question through the lens of candidates and parties, rather than as a civic responsibility they have toward other Black Americans, which therefore mitigates the social desirability bias that leads to overestimation. We evaluate this argument using a survey experiment that randomly asks a control group of survey respondents to answer two voting questions—one about turnout and one about vote choice—and asks the other half of the sample, the treatment group, a single question that combines the two. Using original data from a nationally representative survey, we find that using the single turnout/preference question reduces the racial asymmetry in turnout overestimation substantially. We further observe that the decrease is concentrated among respondents with relatively high levels of campaign indifference and especially racial civic consciousness, a condition that is much more common among Black respondents than among White respondents. We believe these findings are particularly relevant to election scholars and campaign professionals, given their focus on understanding the thought processes of survey respondents and prospective voters, as well as improving the validity of self-reports in survey research.

The politics of teachers' union endorsements

AbstractSchool board candidates supported by local teachers' unions overwhelmingly win, and we examine the causes and consequences of the “teachers' union premium” in these elections. First, we show that union endorsement information increases voter support. Although the magnitude of this effect varies across ideological and partisan subgroups, an endorsement rarely hurts a candidate's prospects with the electorate. Second, we benchmark the size of the endorsement premium to other well‐known determinants of vote choice in local elections. Perhaps surprisingly, we show the effect can be as large as the impact of shared partisanship, and substantially larger than the boost from endorsements provided by other stakeholders. Finally, examining real‐world endorsement decisions, we find that union support for incumbents hinges on self‐interested pecuniary considerations and is unaffected by performance in improving student academic outcomes. The divergence between what endorsements mean and how voters interpret them has troubling normative democratic implications.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

Communicative Democracy and Voter Choice: Evidence From a Conjoint Analysis in Taiwan

While prior scholarship has dedicated substantial attention to theoretically discussing communicative democracy, there has been a notable dearth of empirical research examining its political implications. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by exploring the impact of prioritizing communicative democracy in policy-making on electoral support. Through a conjoint experiment conducted in Taiwan, this study finds that candidates who emphasize communicative democracy, characterized by transparent communication, active engagement, and meaningful dialogue, are more likely to be chosen by voters over those who focus on majority rule. This preference highlights a broader desire for inclusivity and policies reflecting diverse viewpoints. As the first empirical investigation, the findings contribute to our understanding of voter values around communication and inclusivity in democracy, indicating a shift toward valuing collaborative policy development.