Vote Choice Research Articles

Election symbols and vote choice: evidence from India

Abstract A large literature has shown that ballot order and ballot structure can influence vote choice. We focus on another behavioral cue for voting, the symbols that are assigned to candidates in many democracies. We take advantage of a naturally occurring experiment in India, where independent candidates can choose from a list of free symbols and conflicting choices are resolved by a drawing of lots. We find that winning the draw has a substantial positive effect on vote share. We also find some evidence that candidates attempt to choose their symbols strategically, for instance choosing household goods common in their constituencies.

How important are family issues politically? Public opinion in the context of economic and cultural political cleavages

ABSTRACT How politically important are family issues to voters overall and in the context of economic and cultural political opinion cleavages? We use data from the 2014 New Zealand Election Study to answer these questions. More than 60% of respondents claim that family issues – generally defined – were ‘somewhat’ or ‘very important’ when deciding whom to vote for in the 2014 elections, suggesting that family issues are viewed as politically significant. Many respondents have clear political issues in mind when it comes to family and there is a strong connection between believing family issues are important and holding more economic left-wing attitudes and cultural authoritarian attitudes. Qualitatively, there is strong agreement on the main family issues of importance among those who argue that their vote was influenced by family issues, with education and healthcare defined as the most important. However, crucial differences in the most commonly listed family issues occur between citizens depending on their positions on the economic and cultural left-right dimensions. Arguably, the relative importance of family issues opens a unique cross-cutting view into the socioeconomics of vote choice.

The effect of crime on South Africans’ voting behaviour

ABSTRACT What effect does crime have on South Africans' electoral behaviour? Do crime victims and citizens who fear crime enter or exit the electoral arena? If they do vote, do they sanction the ruling African National Congress (ANC)? We use two rounds of Afrobarometer data to provide answers. We corroborate earlier findings that crime victimisation does not appear to shape electoral behaviour. Further, we find that sociotropic perceptions of crime do influence vote choice, although not always in the predicted direction. We explore who tend to be South African crime victims to cast light on these results. We find that opposition parties, specifically the Democratic Alliance (DA), have benefitted electorally from citizens' crime perceptions. We contend that the party's significant focus on crime help account for their ownership of the issue. Lastly, relative to other government performance evaluations, crime does matter, and its salience and importance have increased over time.

Rethinking the Role of Issue-Voting in Referenda: Conjoint and Vote Choice Analyses of Preferences for Constitutional Change in Chile

What determines the vote in referenda: issue-preferences or second-order considerations? Scholars suggest issue-voting is stronger in salient elections. Based on survey data collected during Chile's constitutional referendum, the article challenges this argument. An innovative conjoint experiment allows us to estimate if different elements of the constitution sunk the proposal. Coupled with vote choice models, results indicate that second-order considerations played a more important role than the literature predicts. We argue this is because studies mostly study referenda on European integration in parliamentary systems. Unlike European integration, the constitutional proposal was not a cross-cutting "issue," but one tied to the incumbent. Presidentialism exacerbated government/opposition dynamics, such that the incumbent's popularity significantly affected vote choice. We discuss why this is similar to what transpired in other Latin American countries and draw lessons for participatory democracy.

Using MI-LASSO to study populist radical right voting in times of pandemic

As immigration issues waned in salience during the COVID-19 pandemic, populist radical right (PRR) parties repositioned themselves by politicizing various pandemic policies. In light of this changing political landscape, scholars have analyzed what factors are associated with PRR voting. Yet, most studies focus on small sets of covariates that could easily ignore other key determinants. To address this limitation, we use MI-LASSO logistic regression, which is a more inductive data-driven approach that can incorporate a huge number of covariates. Our research analyzes the key determinants of voting for the People’s Party of Canada—a PRR party that rose rapidly during the pandemic. Using the 2021 Canadian Election Study dataset ( N = 14,841), we confirm that PRR voters in the pandemic were both protest and policy-oriented voters. They were protest voters since anti-establishment attitudes consistently correlate with their vote choice. On the other hand, PRR voters’ policy concern was about pandemic policies rather than immigration, as nativist attitudes never emerge as key determinants. Additionally, we uncover that the ideological placement of the mainstream right party and the defense of hate speech are strong correlates, while conventional variables like sociodemographics are not. These findings enrich our understanding of PRR voting during the pandemic.

The Rise or Decline of Social Acceptance? Perspective from U.S. Presidential Elections, 2012 to 2020

Recent acts of racial violence, the growing visibility of nationalized white power movements, and a drift toward a number of more restrictive laws and Supreme Court rulings have raised troubling questions about the significance and influence of social acceptance in the United States. Focusing on voters and elections, an important strain of scholarship has argued that declining acceptance of minority groups and marginalized communities contributed to the political rise of Donald Trump and his 2016 election to the presidency. However, the argument that low levels of social acceptance benefited Republican candidates is premised on a basic yet untested assumption: that social acceptance has decreased over the time period covered by the past several elections. In this study, we offer a new and systematic evaluation of this assumption through an analysis of change in the level of social acceptance within the American electorate and its political influence from the 2012 through 2020 elections. The analysis focuses on key target groups that include racial minorities, women, immigrants, and gay and lesbian individuals. We find that voters adopted more supportive and inclusive positions toward these marginalized social groups, resulting in a substantial increase in social acceptance over time. Contrasting further with much of the commentary regarding the rise of Donald Trump, our analysis indicates that these trends in social acceptance served to hurt Trump and to help his Democratic opponents. Supplemental analyses find little evidence that social desirability influences the measures of social acceptance or their estimated influence on voter choice.

Voting Behaviour among Rural Communities During the 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria: A Study of Select Local Governments in Katsina State

Nigeria’s presidential elections are profound reflections of the socio-economic, ethno-religious, socio-cultural, and political pulse of the nation since democratization in 1999. Essentially, this situation raises questions around the sociological and political factors shaping the voting behaviour of the electorates during presidential elections in the country. Were the considerations and factors that informed voters’ choices and behaviour in rural communities, during the elections ideological, economic, or primordial that have characterized Nigeria’s identity politics? This article interrogates this question and seeks answer to the motivations, incentives, and influences that determined voting behaviour during the 2023 presidential election in rural communities in Nigeria. Methodologically, the article relied on quantitative and qualitative data obtained conveniently from diverse sample size distributed across three local government areas (LGAs) of Katsina State. These were Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa. Their choice was informed by several considerations including representativeness, convenience, and accessibility. To ground the investigation theoretically, the funnel of causality model was employed with its emphasis on long-term, intermediate, and immediate factors influencing voting choices and behaviours, notably among rural communities. Findings from our investigation showed that voting behaviour in rural communities during the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria was shaped by a complex interplay of socio-economic conditions, traditional leadership, and localized concerns. Additionally, we showed that the election underscored the importance of personal interaction between candidates and voters, with many rural voters prioritizing candidates they had direct relationships with over party affiliations, ethno-religious affinity, and even ideological considerations.

Government Spending and Voting Behavior

abstract: Does government spending on public goods affect the vote choice of citizens? On one hand, prior research has characterized voters as fiscal conservatives who may turn toward conservative parties when government spending goes up. On the other hand, increased spending may signal that the economy is doing well, which makes progressive parties a more viable option. To adjudicate between both hypotheses, this article draws on a natural experiment, which created exogenous variation in government spending. A discontinuity in the 2011 German census meant that some municipalities saw an unforeseen increase in budgets. Using a regression discontinuity design, the authors show that the increase in budgets and subsequent spending on public goods benefited left-leaning parties but had no detectable effect on incumbent support. To parse out the causal channel, the authors rely on panel evidence and demonstrate that treated residents viewed their economic situation more favorably than did untreated residents, which led the former to espouse progressive parties.

The Voter Next Door: Stigma Effects on Advance Voting for Radical Right Parties

Despite the influence of stigmatization on vote choices, little attention has been given to the impact of social stigma on voters’ selection of voting procedures. To bridge this gap, our study focuses on Sweden, where the open-display ballot system at polling stations potentially compromises vote secrecy. Using survey data from the Swedish National Election Studies in 2014 and 2018, we examine the relationship between citizens’ voting procedure choices and their support for a highly stigmatized radical right party, the Sweden Democrats. Our findings reveal that voters of the Sweden Democrats are more inclined to vote in advance, particularly in districts with low general party support, indicating a high level of stigma. We argue that advance voting can be seen as a strategy to safeguard vote secrecy when voting for stigmatized parties within an institutional context featuring public displays of ballots. In addition, our research sheds light on the importance of electoral integrity in maintaining the confidentiality of voters’ choices.

Perceived technological threat and vote choice: evidence from 15 European democracies

The political consequences of workplace technological adoption have become a focus of recent party politics research. This article contributes to this literature by directly examining how the perceived threat of technological change relates to support for populist and non-populist left and right parties. It does so in two ways: first, by examining subjective rather than objective automation exposure, and second by distinguishing between personal and collective threat perceptions. Using vote choice data from 15 European countries, this article shows that subjective perception of personal automation exposure relates to increased support for left parties and decreased support for populist-right parties, while concern over collective risk relates to increased support for the populist right. These patterns suggest that fear of workplace technological change elicits both material and status concerns. The article concludes with counterfactual analyses demonstrating that both non-populist and populist left-wing parties could benefit by mobilizing voters who feel personally threatened by automation.

Marginalization by Proxy: Voter Evaluations at the Intersection of Candidate Identity and Community Ties

AbstractWe apply an intersectional framework to explore how connections to marginalized communities interact with candidate demographics to shape vote choice in U.S. politics. In an original experiment manipulating candidates’ race, gender, sexuality, and endorsements, we show that endorsements by organizations advocating for marginalized communities shape voter evaluations to the same, if not greater, degree as candidate demographics. Moreover, the effects are particularly pronounced for candidates receiving an endorsement from an LGBT advocacy organization. Attitudes toward marginalized communities are mapped onto candidates with ties to those communities, whether the candidate is a member or not; we call this process associational affect. Identity has a complex role in shaping vote choice, and, absent an investigation of power and interlocking social hierarchies, it alone is insufficient to explain vote choice.

Sexual orientation and vote choice: how race affects support of openly-gay candidates

ABSTRACT The increasing number of Black LGBTQ candidates and elected officials suggests that voters are being asked to evaluate their candidacies more often. These scenarios raise the question about how voters—particularly white voters—respond to these candidates, including in non-partisan races such as primaries. In this study, we test how sharing information about a candidate’s racial and sexual identity affects support from white and Black voters. Data come from an original online survey experiment conducted at 14 college campuses. We find that students use race and sexual orientation as vote-guiding heuristics, using stereotypes to fill in for knowledge gaps to try to make choices consistent with their partisan affiliations. We also find, contrary to concerns in some circles that openly-LGBTQ candidates are at an electoral disadvantage, that college students are more supportive of candidates that are identified as openly gay.

A Impact Analysis of Digitalized Voting System on Voting Behavior and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Election results in most African countries are hardly transmitted using digitalized devices. This has created room for suspicion and discrediting of electoral integrity in part of Africa. Citizens’ suspicion of the electoral process has not only made many African voters believe that votes hardly count, but it has significantly provoked tendencies of political apathy and indifference during elections in some African countries. Political apathy and indifference are partly responsible for the recruitment of mediocre persons to elective political offices, which in the long run, amount to bad governance. While the occupation of elective public offices by mediocre persons is antithetical to democratic consolidation, Africa’s electoral integrity largely depends on, and can only be sustained if election results are digitalized or transmitted in real time electronically. Although studies have extensively examined and identified factors such as competency, integrity, proven track records, vision, ideology, manifesto, and inducements, among others, as factors influencing voting choice or behavior, evidence is very little on how a digitalized transmission of election results, impacts on voting behavior and consolidates Africa’s democracy, using the elite theory. This article thus expanded knowledge on how a digitalized voting method influences voters’ decisions or choices using the qualitative method. Results indicated that a digitalized voting system could enhance vote count, public trust in election results, and the deepening of democracy in Africa. It concluded that a digitalized voting system has the potential to increase citizens trust in the electioneering process in Nigeria. This is a contribution to the general body of knowledge in e-voting and election administration. Keywords: Behavior, Consolidation Democracy, Digitalize, Voting System

Changing affective alignments between parties and voters

Populist parties are held to be the drivers of unprecedented emotionalisation in electoral politics. Advancing theories of realignment and detachment, this article studies the temporal development in the affective alignments between voters and parties. In particular, it analyses the relationship between social structure, voters’ affective orientations towards political parties, and vote choice over time by drawing on 625 representative population surveys from Germany over 44 years. The results show that voters’ affective orientations are indeed becoming more important to vote choice. However, this reflects a return to the close link that already existed at the heyday of the original cleavages rather than something novel. What seems to have changed is the degree to which affective orientations are rooted in social structure. This not only qualifies overly myopic interpretations of populist success but has more general implications for the contemporary linkages between parties and voters.

The «Situational Nationalism»: A New Age of Nation and State Building in Montenegro?

For a long time, the political development of Montenegro has been determined by the peculiarities of historical development and the legacy of the former Yugoslavia. The divisions between groups of citizens identifying themselves as Serbs or Montenegrins, as well as contradictions between the state and the church, have determined the configuration of political forces. The fear of national minorities of Serbian national policy and the skillful maneuvering of M. Djukanovic contributed to their support for his regime. However, the problems of economic development, Djukanovic’s miscalculations regarding the Orthodox Church, as well as the lack of serious progress on the way to the EU, led to an increase in opposition sentiment and the defeat of Djukanovic in 2023 presidential elections, and the DPS in the parliamentary ones. Representatives of the younger generation of politicians came to power in Montenegro, relying to a lesser extent on traditional ethno-confessional divisions for Montenegro and aimed at solving economic problems and accelerating the process of the country’s accession to the EU. The article concludes that the end of a long period of dominance of one political force does not mean the end of the process of democratization. The unresolved issues of national and state building, the influence of external centers, the lack of effective institutions for the achievement of compromise and the protection of the interests of minorities make political life unstable and complicate the adoption of effective political decisions. Despite the victory of a new generation of politicians in the last national elections, the country’s traditional divisions still determine the choice of many voters and may again become relevant under the influence of market circumstances.

Candidate Ideology and Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

A prominent literature argues that moderate candidates perform better in general elections, but a competing literature that emphasizes partisan loyalties contests this. The 2020 Democratic presidential primary represented an opportunity to speak to these debates due to high voter information about multiple moderate and extreme candidates running in the same election. We present results from two national surveys (total n = 102, 425) that asked how respondents would choose in an election between one of the Democratic candidates and Republican Donald Trump. Our evidence is consistent with moderates having an electoral advantage: more moderate Democratic candidates receive more support against Trump than do more extreme candidates. Providing information through plausible attacks did not change these results. Notably, Sanders had the highest support after the moderates, but this was due to an implausibly large increase in intended turnout among young voters. Inconsistent with theories emphasizing the strength of partisan loyalties, Republican voters explain much of this effect.

Voter habituation and opinion activation in misreporting voting behavior in the 2020 presidential election

ABSTRACT Pre-election surveys are commonly used to predict turnout and vote choice, but anticipating who votes is challenging. Often survey respondents do not truthfully report their behavior and specifically overreport socially desirable actions like voting. In this study, we analyze factors influencing misreporting voting and vote method in a pre-election web survey of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election. More specifically, we test how voter habits (administrative data from the Florida voter file) and contextual factors (elite messaging, COVID-19 infection rates, and competitiveness) have impacted the likelihood of misreporting voting and vote method in the 2020 presidential election. We find that voter habits regarding voting and vote method significantly reduce the likelihood of misreporting such behaviors. Finally, in speaking to opinion activation, we demonstrate with our Florida survey and the 2020 Cooperative Election Study, that Trump supporters were significantly and substantially, more inclined to disclaim voting by mail when in fact they did.

Media Exposure and Vote Choice in India, 1996–2019

This article examines the relationship between media consumption and voting choices in India in the context of increasing exposure to media, both traditional and new. Using media exposure-related data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’ (CSDS) national election surveys since 1996, it makes a few key assertions. Historically, there has been a positive relationship between traditional news media exposure and voting for the BJP, i.e., the greater the voters’ TV and newspaper consumption, the higher their support for the BJP. With respect to the Congress party, the tendency has generally been the opposite. This pattern now extends to social media exposure as well. However, this impact of media exposure on voting preferences that’s visible at the broad level weakens considerably when slicing the data further by socio-demographic factors. It has been found that the trend of the BJP’s vote share rising with increasing exposure to media is not consistent across the categories of age, education, and caste during many elections. If there is one election, however, that bucked this trend, it was the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The article argues that the BJP was successful in recognizing this and capitalized on it through an extensive media and communications campaign in 2014.

Peran Badan Kesatuan Bangsa Dan Politik Dalam Meningkatkan Partisipasi Politik Pemilih Perempuan Melalui Pendidikan Politik Di Kabupaten Sukoharjo

This research aims to analyze the role of Bakesbangpol in increasing the political participation of female voters and determine the factors that influence the political participation of female voters in Sukoharjo Regency. This research uses a qualitative approach. Data sources in the research include informants, namely heads of departments and staff members of domestic politics and community organizations as well as female voters participating in political education programs, events implementing political education programs at the Graha Satya Praja pavilion, as well as the Sukoharjo Regency Bakesbangpol strategic plan document for 2021-2026. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The data collection techniques used were observation, direct in-depth interviews, and document analysis. The validity test technique uses triangulation of sources and methods. The data analysis technique used is an interactive analysis model which consists of four components including data collection, data reduction, data presentation and drawing conclusions. The research results are as follows. 1) Bakesbangpol Sukoharjo Regency has carried out its role as a facilitator by providing facilities and infrastructure, providing political education assistance, and having a focus on discussions related to political participation. Political education is carried out in the form of political socialization. 2) factors that influence the political participation of female voters in Sukoharjo Regency, namely a) political knowledge, female voters who have political knowledge will have the awareness to participate in political activities. b) family, family members, especially the husband, are factors that can influence a wife's choice. c) political stimulation, political education organized by Bakesbangpol is able to increase the knowledge of female voters and social media is able to influence the choices of female voters. d) work that is formed because of similarities is able to encourage individuals to adapt to behavior in the group.

Geographic Distribution of Voter Turnout, Ethnic Turnout and Vote Choices in Johor State Election

Geographic Distribution of Voter Turnout, Ethnic Turnout and Vote Choices in Johor State Election