Policy Choices Research Articles

Диверсификация экономики как фактор устойчивого развития региона в современных условиях

In the context of a high degree of uncertainty in the modern global economic space, the search for ways that can ensure long-term stable development of the economy of the country’s regions becomes relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify the strength of relationship between the level of development of an economic entity and the degree of diversification of its economy, which will allow the regions of the Russian Federation to justify the choice of diversification or specialization policy. The level of diversification was determined by such methods as analysis of the structure of the regional economy, highlighting the sectors of the national economy that make the greatest contribution to the gross regional product; study of the distribution of employees by types of economic activity; calculation of indicators characterizing the concentration of production in territories – the Herfindahl–Hirschman index, dispersion indicator, entropy coefficient. The study identified that more than 12 % of regions have a low diversification level, mainly associated with mining operations. The author calculated the correlation coefficient between the Herfindahl–Hirschman index and the indicators of the gross regional product of the Russian Federation constituents, which allowed concluding on the absence of connection between these indicators. The author believes that diversification of the region’s economy does not guarantee an increase in its efficiency. Constituents with a low diversification level often have high indicators of socio-economic development; therefore, the focus on diversification is not always an economically sound strategy for the development of the region. Thus, increasing the diversification level does not have a direct connection confirmed by calculations with the level of development of the region; however, additional research on the structure of manufacturing industries and determining their impact on the economic system are necessary.

Does Left- and Right-wing cleavage explain the choices of public policies for higher education in Brazil?

RESUMO Introdução: Existem padrões partidários e ideológicos nas escolhas de políticas públicas para a educação superior? A partir de um modelo adaptado da teoria dos governos partidários, utilizado para explicar o caso dos países desenvolvidos, o artigo verifica se a clivagem esquerda-direita se aplica também ao caso brasileiro. Materiais e métodos: Para testar empiricamente a teoria, utilizaram-se dados de acesso à graduação e informações documentais sobre as políticas públicas adotadas para o ensino superior pelos ocupantes do governo federal, de diferentes inclinações ideológicas, ao longo de quase trinta anos (1990-2018). Resultados: O artigo conclui que a clivagem direita-esquerda explica as escolhas dos governos federais no Brasil para a educação superior, mas que os cálculos dos partidos são diferentes para esse nível de ensino: ampliar o acesso pode ocorrer tanto em governos de direita quanto de esquerda. Quando o nível de acesso ainda era elitizado, governos de centro-direita no Brasil expandiram as vagas, com o cálculo de que os beneficiados de tal política seriam seus potenciais eleitores no futuro. Os governos de esquerda também adotaram a expansão de vagas e incluíram o crescimento privado e a adoção de ações afirmativas com o cálculo de que essa forma de expansão produziria uma inclusão mais rápida de seus potenciais eleitores no futuro, mesmo em um cenário em que o acesso ao ensino superior não estava massificado. Discussão: Quatro governos (FHC 2, Lula 1 e 2 e Dilma 1) foram responsáveis por mais de 80% do incremento de novas matrículas no ensino superior em quase três décadas, indicando que a expansão não foi exclusiva de governos liderados por partidos de esquerda. A principal diferença está na adoção de critérios redistributivos: governos de esquerda adotaram medidas para reduzir a dependência da renda para o ingresso com ações afirmativas e outros instrumentos, promovendo inclusão social e racial. Essa forma de expansão não foi adotada, nem iniciada, por governos de direita ou de centro-direita. O texto contribui para entender quem foi incluído ou excluído no ensino superior brasileiro como resultado de escolhas políticas ideologicamente orientadas pelos diferentes ocupantes do Executivo federal desde a redemocratização.

The Mobility-Democracy Nexus Betrayed: When the European Commission’s Talks Fall Apart in the Mediterranean

In the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, the European Union’s (EU) relations with the Southern neighbour countries (SNCs) have been reframed in the light of a new élan of democracy promotion. The underlying logic of this approach was to leverage the building and consolidation of democracy and rule of law through enhanced cooperation in terms of more ‘markets, money and mobility’. A sort of mobility-democracy nexus has been assumed by the European Commission as a crucial dimension of the EU’s external relations with SNCs. Within this strategy, Mobility Partnerships (MPs) with SNCs have been identified as a key policy tool for EU democracy promotion. Via original qualitative analysis of European Commission’s documents, MPs, and other migration and mobility agreements that the EU has negotiated with SNCs since 2011, this paper explores how the mobility-democracy nexus has been defined in the Commission’s talks. We critically discuss the effectiveness of this nexus and demonstrate the inefficacy of MPs as a tool to promote democracy by fostering more mobility and regular migration flows. Looking at the content of MPs with three SNCs (Tunisia, Morocco, and Jordan) allows to trace the transformation of EU external relations with SNCs from a principled approach into selective issue-oriented cooperation based on more specific and sectorial policy choices. European Union, Southern neighbourhood, EU external policies, post-Arab uprisings, mobility partnerships, democracy promotion, migration, content analysis

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of air pollutants during COVID-19 over Korba district, Chhattisgarh (India) using Google Earth Engine

Air pollution is a significant public health concern and impacts a country’s well-being. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have provided researchers with a unique opportunity to examine the impact of human activities and industries on air pollution. The annual mean PM2.5 grids were validated by comparing them with collocated surface in situ PM2.5 measurements and were then used for trend analyses. Using ground in-situ data validated in 2020–21 showed a good correlation (R2 = 0.90, 0.81 & 0.99) with Satellite-derived for summer, monsoon, and winter seasons, respectively. Among these pollutants, human and industrial activities are a significant source of Sulfur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Formaldehyde (HCHO), and Ozone (O3). This study examined how these pollutants changed between February 2019 to January 2022 in Korba District, Chhattisgarh (India). The Google Earth Engine (GEE) is based on the cloud platform time series from the Sentinel-5P TROPOMI satellite data sets. The findings show that the annual average concentration of (SO2: R2 = 0.90, 0.97, and 0.97), (NO2: R2 = 0.97, 0.94, and 0.94), (HCHO: R2 = 0.99, 0.99, and 0.99), and (O3: R2 = 0.99, 0.94, and 0.94) and also increased monsoon, summer, and winter in ascending order for 2019–20, 2020–21, and 2021–22 respectively, due to topology, meteorology, and anthropogenic activities. These results are essential guidelines for future industrial, transportation, and traffic management as sustainable development legislation and programs. Additionally, by applying the COVID-19 scenario, it is now feasible to research how industrial activities, transportation, and biomass burning are, compounded by the region’s topography, affecting air quality using free satellite-derived data sets. These findings also benefit future policy choices on dealing with viral proliferation and reducing its negative societal and economic repercussions.

High Medical Costs and Homelessness Vulnerability Among Older Adults in Washington, DC: A Policy Analysis

The increasing risk of homelessness among older adults in Washington, DC, fueled predominantly by soaring medical expenses, represents a pressing societal concern. Despite notable reductions in overall homelessness rates, the number of older adults experiencing homelessness remains unchanged. As the demographic of older adults grows, the urgency to address this issue escalates. This article examines the complex nexus of high medical costs, poverty, and homelessness among the elderly community in Washington, DC. The article proposes, evaluates, and recommends five policy alternatives geared toward addressing this multifaceted predicament. After employing a rigorous policy analysis approach, alternative two, which focuses on expanding Medicare coverage by lowering eligibility criteria from 65 to 63 years of age, is the recommended policy choice. This proposed recommendation not only aims to ameliorate immediate financial vulnerabilities but also endeavors to democratize access to indispensable healthcare services. Through a blend of empirical analyses, this measure best mitigates the risk of homelessness among the elderly populace in the nation's capital. In synthesizing empirical insights, theoretical perspectives, and policy pragmatism, this article seeks to catalyze informed dialogue and efficacious action toward safeguarding the dignity and security of older adults in Washington, DC, and beyond.

Rare Disaster, Liquidity Provision, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Choices

Rare Disaster, Liquidity Provision, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Choices

Formulating tobacco control policies: How can local governments contribute?

Due to a continuing international trend of decentralization of public health policies, local governments are given an increasingly important role in tobacco control. The process of developing local-level tobacco control policies is an underexplored topic. This study uses grant applications as a data source to gain insight into the planning, development and proposed implementation of local tobacco control policies by regional public health departments in the Netherlands. Grant applications of 24 regional public health departments were analyzed using the second stage of the rational policy cycle, a four-stages policy model about the decisions made by local policy makers during the policy process. We coded the applications with open and axial coding. Public health departments formulated four main goals for tobacco control: adding tobacco control policies to existing local policy documents, creating smoke-free (child) environments, developing and improving access to smoking cessation care, and participating in media campaigns. Public health departments often specify tobacco control aims and involve partners in reaching these aims. However, the grant applications lacked information about implementing these tobacco control policies. The information on implementation strategies and process evaluation, as well as the (evidence-based) legitimation for the policy choices, needs improvement. Under the current conditions, which include the brief explanation the departments received, an unclear mandate, insufficient funding, and local restricting factors such as time and knowledge, significant contributions to tobacco control policy cannot be expected from local governments.

Achieving True Strict Product Liability (But Not For Plaintiffs With Fault)

Under modern tort law, the “strict” product liability cause of action does not impose true strict liability (liability without fault). This Article suggests that this counterintuitive development is not the byproduct of a policy choice. Instead, an unresolved doctrinal difficulty is responsible for the modern requirement that a plaintiff prove fault before winning on a “strict” product liability claim. The doctrinal difficulty is this: How can tort law impose liability on faultless product manufacturers while simultaneously preventing plaintiffs with fault from being able to recover under a true strict liability standard? This Article posits that both results are desirable—true strict product liability, but not for plaintiffs with fault—but that it is analytically difficult to assemble tort doctrine to get both results. Without a doctrinal solution that allows for both results, courts have (mostly) retreated from a true strict product liability standard. This Article offers a simple solution to this analytical/doctrinal riddle: Restoring the strict product liability cause of action such that it truly imposes liability without fault, while allowing defendants a contributory negligence (flat-bar) defense to this strict liability claim. Under this doctrinal change, plaintiffs without fault would be able to recover from manufacturers on a true strict product liability claim. Plaintiffs with fault, however, would be forced to pursue a negligence claim, meaning that their ability to recover would require them to show that the defendant also had fault. This doctrinal fix uses tools and concepts already familiar to modern tort law and is thus easily achievable. In fact, all that is necessary to effectuate this result is a simple, minor change to the current comparative fault jury instructions used in most jurisdictions.

Should the Commonwealth of Virginia Privatize Liquor Sales?

Privatization is an effective policy choice for governments to reduce public debt, improve the financial health of the private sector, and improve the firm’s economic efficiency. However, beyond the economic and financial factors, there are several political implications of privatization policies that are important to consider. Although many economic benefits are presumed to occur due to privatization, the unique position of the Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control Authority (VA ABC) makes it, unlike most public firms that have been considered for privatization. Privatizing this firm would result in the Commonwealth of Virginia losing over $250 million from its General Fund annually and would negatively impact the state’s labor market. This policy brief examines the economic, financial, and political motivations to privatize state-owned enterprises and discusses the implications that privatizing the VA ABC would have on the Commonwealth.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar’s Quest for Power in the Arab Gulf: Role of Ideational Factors and Economic Rivalry in Diverging Foreign Policy Choices

In a quest to emerge as the Arab Gulf’s ‘Top Gun’, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are striving to maintain a balance of power while simultaneously making concerted efforts at curbing Qatar’s political and strategic outreach in the region. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, two major Arab powers, often depict synchronicity in their foreign policies but Saudi’s reluctance to relinquish its status of dominance and the underlying quest for an influential political and economic position have turned Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, into rival allies, opting for diverging foreign policy choices in the Middle East and abroad. Pursuing a bold and unconventional foreign policy in the region, Qatar’s linkages with regional militias, its close proximity to Turkey, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood are the significant drivers of its approach to regional politics. The contrasting policies of Abu Dhabi and Doha towards the Muslim Brotherhood, the role of political Islam and cross-culturalism in the Arab World have long served as the bone of contention. However, depicting a pacifist stance towards political Islam, the Saudi-Qatar rivalry is mostly strategic in nature. This paper adopts a comparative approach to understand the foreign policy choices, influencing the behavioral patterns of the three contending actors in the Gulf. Drawing upon the role of ideational factors, strategic aspirations and the role of external actors namely the U.S., Turkey, and Iran, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the persisting security dilemma and the quest for relative gains among Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha driven by the notion of security and survival in an anarchic international system.

Kautilya’s Ideas for Diplomacy and its reflection in India’s Foreign Policy

Kautilya (also known as Chanakya), was India’s political strategic thinker and philosopher of the 4th century B.C., during Chandragupta Maurya’s reign. While, Arthashastra received wider recognition across the world for his state-building theories, in terms of Kautilya’s contribution to the strategic thought in realpolitik, Kautilya’s work has long been neglected not only by Western scholars but even sometimes by the Indian intellectual community. India, for a long, was recognized as the land of spirituality with a lack of rationality, and the discovery of Arthashastra made those perceptions irrelevant. While, there are other factors such as technological developments with nuclear deterrence and factors of globalization in cross-border trade and commerce, India’s foreign policy outlook has considered the realm of international affairs based on Arthashastra, which will be deciphered in this paper. Stressing the notion of ‘state’ and a comparative analysis of Kautilya’s state with that of the Western scholars and the current interpretation of ‘state’, the article will delve deeper into the doctrine of elements of the state, and their role in dealing with foreign policy. Analyzing the concept of ‘Vijigishu’ or central kingdom propagates in Kautilya’s ‘Mandala theory, and what is ‘enemy’ in foreign relations, the article will try to understand how the classic scripture is still relevant in India’s foreign policy choices. Contextually, the article will put appropriate examples to establish the fact that Kautilya’s Arthashastra has significantly influenced the decision-making in Indian diplomacy.

Historical institutionalism in action: Incremental prevalence of Transit-Oriented Development in Tokyo 1945-1982

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) increasingly refers to global practices integrating land-use planning, urban development, and transit today, but their historical experiences have received little attention from the discussion, not to mention any theoretical elaboration with institutional thinking. The literature identifies Tokyo as a global exemplar of TOD as a new term for enduring practice. However, why and how Tokyo’s practice uniquely relies on private railway conglomerates remains underexplored. This article elaborates on a historical institutionalist approach using an inductive process tracing technique to understand Tokyo’s postwar history from 1945 to 1982, emphasizing incremental changes induced by endogenous forces. The exploration takes precedent insights into the private railway conglomerate-led TOD practice as an informal institution of “standard operating practice” and refines them with postwar history and supplementary prewar episodes. It finds that contingent policy choices allowed conglomerates to dismantle their geographical and financial constraints from prewar regulations. The actions reinforced their institutional privilege in public affairs as a foundation for subversive railway privatization reforms from 1982 onward. The finding thus identifies a socio-political dimension of TOD shaped by agents across sectors, developing the current methodology in planning studies and contributing to the debates on defining TOD.

Integrating health across the Sustainable Development Goals in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Assessment of Voluntary National Reviews from 18 countries.

Voluntary National Reviews are the formal mechanism for countries to report on progress and share lessons learned on SDG implementation. We assessed the Voluntary National Reviews submitted by countries in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region to note the reported progress on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation, the review preparation process and how health is positioned and framed to identify priorities for accelerating progress on the health-related SDGs. We extracted quantitative and qualitative data from 26 Voluntary National Reviews from 18 countries submitted during the period 2016 to January 2022. We focused on three areas: SDG implementation, the review preparation process and the positioning of health in the reviews. Three assessors conducted the data extraction based on the agreed framework according to their language of expertise (Arabic, English and French). One assessor supervised the whole process for consistency. If there was a doubt in interpretation, it was discussed and agreed among the assessors. Countries have established a mechanism for SDG implementation under high-level leadership, engaged in multistakeholder consultations, aligned and mainstreamed SDGs to national plans, and created a monitoring and review mechanism. Countries reported use of national participatory approach for the report preparation. The prioritization of both health and well-being (SDG3) and economic growth (SDG8) in the reports is unique compared to other regional and global assessments. Health was often framed around disease and health care provision without linkages to societal inequities and structural challenges. The reports indicated good progress in SDG implementation. Addressing upstream issues and the determinants of health requires the health sector to take a more strategic approach in advocating for health and well-being. Further research is needed to demonstrate how to address synergies and trade-offs of policy choices and identify the co-benefits of addressing health in the context of fiscal instability and widening inequities in the region.

THE DETERMINANTS OF MALUS ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK IN INDONESIA

Abstract— This study is based on the Indonesian Financial Service Authority since 2015 regulates that banks must have a policy to defer, or to clawback, or combination of both the variable compensation paid to bank’s executive. Since the Indonesian Financial Authority allows banks to choose their compensation scheme, this study is to investigate the factors that influence the choice of the policy. Our study is among few studies that investigate this area because the regulation was enacted in 2017. Data are collected from Regional Development Bank in Indonesia that report their compensation policy since 2017 to 2019. We test financial and nonfinancial factors that may determine the choice of compensation policy. Banks with lower net interest margin tend not to choose malus. The similar conclusion is also given by the variable board of commissioner’s tenure. However, commissioner’s remuneration suggests a positive relationship with the propensity to choose malus other than other type of compensation policies. We find that net interest margin, board of commissioners tenure, and remuneration of executives are related to choice of clawback or malus. Future researchers may focus on the effect of corporate governance related to local governments-owned banks and remuneration provisions.
 Keywords: Clawback; Compensation; Corporate Governance; Holdback; Malus

FINANCIALISATON OF SAVINGS: THE SUBTLE POWER OF NUDGES IN SHAPING PERSONAL FINANCE

The Indian financial services landscape has evolved and transformed in the last decade . The use of technology and policy push has catalysed the evolution. In the evolving landscape of personal finance, the shift from traditional saving methods to financialized saving strategies represents a significant behavioural and economic transition . This paper examines how the application of nudge theory has been instrumental in steering this transformation. As individuals increasingly move from conventional savings like bank deposits to more complex financial vehicles such as stocks, mutual funds, and retirement accounts, understanding the role of behavioural nudges in this shift becomes crucial. The study explores the application of nudge theory as proposed by Thaler and Sunstein(2008), exploring its practical implementation in personal finance. The study explores the awareness level of college students for financial inclusion schemes.. Employing a qualitative approach also compiles the inputs of experts and stakeholders to understand the impact of these nudges on personal saving habits. The papers explores how subtle modifications in choice architecture and policy design, such as automatic enrolment in pension plans, default fund options in investment schemes, and simplification of financial choices, effectively nudge individuals. It conclusively underline the need for Nudging for broadening the investor base with the balance of informed decision making to safeguard financial stability and financial wellbeing.

Shifting the paradigm for securing efficient management of exchange rate in Nigeria: A GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH analysis

The influence of foreign exchange on all spheres of any economy is germane to determining its extent of development. Most developing countries have been subjected to managing the integrity of the exchange rate arising from their disadvantageous position in world trade. Nigeria is not an exemption either; this is due to its constant interventions in the foreign exchange market from time to time and by the policy of the existing government in power. However, the interventionist policy framework has been more harmful to Naira as the currency depreciates unabatedly. The pertinent question is whether monetary policy should be the only approach to effective exchange rate management or be combined with fiscal and income policies. Irrespective of the policy choice, the aim, target, and instrument must be complementary without unnecessary disruptions midway, as usually experienced in Nigeria. These inconsistencies have come to bear enormously on the country's exchange rate management. Rather than focusing on the impact of exchange rate volatility on industrial development that could warrant foreign exchange inflows, this paper considers industrialization as an approach to effectively managing exchange rates in Nigeria. This analysis employs a univariate GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH model, using high-frequency monthly time series data from 2000 to 2019, to examine the volatility transmission between the foreign exchange market and the industrial sector. The model estimation uses the Conditional Maximum Likelihood Technique (CMLT). It was discovered that industrial development positively influenced the official market exchange rate compared to the parallel market exchange rate, reducing its volatility. The study thus suggests the vigorous pursuit of foreign exchange earnings and usage policy by earning entities, floating Diaspora bonds, enhancing and encouraging remittances and repatriation of illicit financial outflows to enhance industrialization. This will discourage arbitraging, increasing foreign exchange inflows and stabilizing the economy.

The political economy of inequality, mobility and redistribution

How does the interaction between inequality and social mobility affect the choice of fiscal policy? I analyze this question in a model of democratic politics with imperfect tax enforcement, where the ability of individuals to evade taxes limits the amount of redistribution in the economy. Social mobility creates an insurance motive that increases voluntary compliance, favoring the tax enforcement process. In such an environment, redistributive pressures brought about by an increase in inequality are only implementable in highly mobile societies. On the contrary, when mobility is low, higher inequality reduces tax rates and does not translate into higher redistribution. Descriptive evidence based on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1980–2015 shows correlations among inequality, mobility and redistribution in line with the predictions of the model.

Short-term policy choices will worsen long-term outcomes: on public health funding in England.

Short-term policy choices will worsen long-term outcomes: on public health funding in England.

The Evolving Impact of the Post-Pandemic Federal Funds Rate Hikes on the Dollar Index

On March 17th, 2022, the Federal Reserve issued its first federal funds rate hike to address elevated inflation rates and consumer prices amidst the post-pandemic period. By July 2023, the Fed had raised the rate eleven times, increasing it from 0.25% to 5.50%. These monetary policies not only played a role in stabilizing prices and containing inflation but also contributed to strengthening the U.S. dollar index. This research analyzes the quantifiable impact of these rate hikes on the dollar index by implementing time series models and creating visualizations of daily, weekly, and monthly index trends. Specifically, leveraging data from 2010 to 2023 and utilizing ARIMA modeling, the goal is to provide an understanding of the relationship between the Feds monetary policy choices and the standing of the U.S. dollar in global financial markets. A key finding is that there is a positive increase in the dollar index change after the rate hikes compared to no action by the Fed. The daily data is less convincing than the monthly data in reaching this conclusion.

Political Info Channels for West Java Governor Election Policy Prospective

This research intends to analyze the use of communication channels by the West Java Governor candidates in 2018 to convey prospective policy choice political information to the voter segmentation in 27 regencies or cities. This research uses a qualitative method with a case study approach. The results showed that the communication channels used by West Java Governor Candidates through social media to disseminate prospective policy choice political information to the millennial generation segmentation in urban areas and through Islamic Boarding Schools reach Kiai, students, and the public in rural areas. It shows the importance of utilizing communication channels through social media. The other hand also shows the importance of professional organization channels through Islamic Boarding Schools and interpersonal communication to approach Kiai as an opinion leader to gain voters in the election for West Java Governor. Thus, this research benefits gubernatorial candidates in choosing communication channels to provide political information that must adjust to geographical and demographic conditions and to voters about how to obtain political information to gain knowledge of the regional head candidates. This research is still relevant as a study to make a sample of policy in the next election in 2024.