China Exports Research Articles

The impact of intellectual property articles on the quality of export products: Based on text analysis of China's trade agreements

In late 2019, Article 24 of the China State Council's Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-quality Trade Development emphasized protection and construction of intellectual property rights and international cooperation and active participation in establishing relevant international rules. This study examined the influence of intellectual property field in regional trade agreements on the quality of China's export products by constructing theoretical and empirical model. By calculating the “Agreement Coverage Rate” and “Legal Commitment Rate” of intellectual property articles, the relationship between the articles of intellectual property and the quality of China's export products is tested based on the OLS regression of fixed effects model using panel data of export trade from China to 15 treaty partners. The robustness of the empirical results is tested using instrumental variable and other methods. The study found that intellectual property articles in bilateral agreement significantly improved the quality of export products, the promotion effect of Agreement Coverage Rate is often greater than that of Legal Commitment Rate, and this effect is realized through the R&D effect of importing countries.

Study on the Impact of the Development of Digital Economy in RCEP Member Countries on China's Export Trade

With the rise of the global wave of digitisation, the digital economy has become an important driver of international trade. This study aims to deeply explore the impact of the development of digital economy in RCEP member countries on China's trade. On the basis of the panel model which comprehensively analyses three kinds of digital economy development status measurement indicators such as digital economy development status, digital information industry and digital cultural resources input of RCEP countries, it assigns values to the digital economy development status of each country by means of the fixed effect model and empirically proves the relationship between the digital economy development level of member countries and the development of China's export trade. The results show that the digital economy development capacity of RCEP member countries will have a positive promotion effect on the overall improvement of China's foreign trade and export volume, and the conclusions drawn from the empirical results provide suggestions and countermeasures for the high-quality development of China's digital economy to promote foreign trade and export.

A Review on China's Exports and Crowding-Out Effects

Export-led growth strategies have become the main paradigm for developing countries seeking to achieve higher economic growth. While exports are key to generating income, there are concerns regarding limitations in external demand. Specifically, China’s remarkable export performance has been at the center of debates that revolve around possible export displacement effects on other countries. This study reviews this literature on export-led growth and crowding-out effects induced by China’s growing exports on various countries and regions. Moreover, reflecting dynamic changes in export structure, lists of key products for Chinese exports are provided. While using the 4-digit level Harmonized System (HS) classification, the selection of the products is based on improvements in revealed comparative advantage (RCA) over the period from 2009 to 2018 and is specific to China’s top three sectors with the largest global market shares: textile, electronics and machinery. Additionally, lists of competitor, potential competitor and potential loser countries are identified in the markets for these specified key products. The findings demonstrate increased competitive pressures on more advanced countries in connection with the increased sophistication of Chinese exports.

Analysis of the impact of China's OFDI on China's export trade

This article aims to analyze the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on China's export trade. In theoretical analysis, the motives behind China's OFDI were explored, including seeking resources, expanding the market, enhancing technology and management capabilities, and promoting enterprise internationalization. In terms of positive impact, the positive impact of OFDI on expanding export markets, enhancing product competitiveness, and optimizing industrial structure was discussed. However, it also pointed out negative impacts such as backflow effects and trade protectionism. By taking Huawei's investment in the African market as a case study, this paper analyzes its impact on expanding export markets, upgrading technology, increasing export added value, and driving the development of related industries. In the analysis of influencing factors, multiple factors such as policies, markets, and industries were mentioned. Finally, policy recommendations for the development of OFDI from the perspectives of government, enterprises, and industry were proposed.

Topic: Digital Economy, China International Trade Potential, Industries of BRI countries: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

The article investigates the impact of digital trade on China’s trade efficiency, trade potential, and the possible influence factors of China to BRI nations under stochastic frontier gravity methodology framework. In this article, it follows previous studies and employ stochastic frontier gravity model to explore possible influence of digital trade and trade barriers on China’s foreign trade potential at country-level. It evaluates the influence factor of China export potential to BRI countries via the aspect of digital commerce. Moreover, this article enriches the BRI literatures by employing stochastics frontier gravity model to examine the impact of digital trade on China trade potential and trade efficiency to BRI countries. The results of the study support the important role of BRI in facilitating digital trade among BRI countries and China. In addition to revealing the factors affecting digital trade (e.g., GDP and distance, bordering issue), the results highlight the importance of considering non-efficiency factors, in our case, the negative impact of digital trade restrictions on trade efficiency. The findings may provide some insight for policy makers (in China and BRI countries) into loosening the digital trade restrictions and improve trade efficacy along the BRI.

International friendship cities, spatial spillover effect and urban export growth: Evidence from China

AbstractUsing a spatial econometric model, this study investigates the impact of international friendship cities on urban exports in China at the city level. The results demonstrate a significant spatial spillover effect of international friendship cities on China's urban exports, benefiting not only the local area but also the neighbouring cities. Mechanism tests indicate that international friendship cities foster export growth in both local and adjacent cities by accumulating international social capital. Additionally, we identify a spatial spillover interval (within 700 km) and a siphonic interval (beyond 800 km) in the effect of international friendship cities on the urban exports of surrounding cities. This study sheds light on the role of international friendship cities in driving urban export growth in China.

Internet Search and the Ternary Margin of China's Export Trade

Internet Search and the Ternary Margin of China's Export Trade

CHANGES IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES' WAGES AS A RESULT OF CHINA'S TRADE LIBERALIZATION

The rapid expansion of China's economy and the subsequent liberalization of its commerce have far-reaching implications for the world's LICs. Focusing on the implications for labor markets and income distribution, this research analyzes how China's trade liberalization has affected salaries in LICs. This study aims to shed light on how China's trade policies have affected wage dynamics and societal shifts by reviewing the relevant literature.China's exports have increased as the country liberalized its trade policies and opened up to international markets. The flood of Chinese imports has affected wages in LICs, both positively and negatively. Cheap Chinese imports have especially hard-hit wages in businesses that heavily rely on human labor. Because of this, low-skilled employees in LICs face more competition and less bargaining leverage, both of which contribute to wage stagnation or decline. The rise of China's exports, however, has opened new doorways for economic development and increased employment in LICs. Increased demand from China has fueled employment growth and pay inflation in LICs' comparative advantage sectors, including natural resources and specialized manufacturing. Chinese investment in low- and middle-income countries (LICs) has boosted local economies by creating jobs and raising salaries in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. The overall effect of China's trade liberalization on LICs' salaries is nuanced and sector-specific. Economic diversification, trade patterns, and the structure of LIC economies all play a role in determining the size and direction of these impacts.

Impact Of the Economic Embargo Imposed by The United States on China on The Chinese Economy

Amidst an increasingly tense global landscape, the ongoing power struggle between two major players, China and the United States, persists unabated. Notably, the economic sanctions that the U.S. levied against China have wielded substantial influence over China's economic trajectory. This research sets its focus on the intricate dynamics of these sanctions, dissecting their methods, intentions, and the resultant toll on China's economic well-being. Moreover, it examines the realm of U.S.-China trade, scrutinizing the extent of U.S. influence over China's exports, imports, and trade mechanisms. Drawing from a comprehensive lens, the study scrutinizes China's strategic responses to these sanctions, unveiling the multifaceted strategies it has employed to navigate these challenging circumstances. Through insightful analysis, the paper not only outlines the repercussions faced by China but also lays bare the implications for global trade and diplomacy. Within this context, the paper envisions a forward-looking trajectory for U.S.-China relations. By fostering a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between economic sanctions, global trade, and diplomatic strategies, the study proposes a more constructive and cooperative path for the future. As the international arena continues to evolve, the pursuit of mutual benefit and sustainable coexistence emerges as a promising proposition for both nations to navigate the complex web of global dynamics with greater harmony and shared prosperity.

Influence of digital finance on export green-sophistication.

The export green-sophistication (EGS) is not only an important engine for the high-quality development of China's economy but also the external embodiment of the core international competitiveness and the key to resisting external competition and realizing the upgrade of the value chain. Using the database of China's digital finance development, China's A-share listed enterprises, and the China Customs database, we test the relationship between digital finance (DF) and the EGS of enterprises. It shows that DF significantly promotes listed enterprises' EGS, and compared to the depth of use of DF and digitization degree of DF, the promotion effect of coverage breadth of DF is the most significant. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect is more conspicuous for promoting the EGS in private enterprises, general trade enterprises, central and western regions' enterprises, and enterprises exporting to developed countries. The mechanism test finds that alleviating financing constraints and promoting green technological innovation are the two channels for DF to promote the enterprises' EGS. This study not only advances the understanding of the economic effects of DF but also implies the green transformation of China's exports.

Digital Economy, China International Trade Potential, Industries of BRI countries: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

The article investigates the impact of digital trade on China’s trade efficiency, trade potential, and the possible influence factors of China to BRI nations under stochastic frontier gravity methodology framework. In this article, it follows previous studies and employ stochastic frontier gravity model to explore possible influence of digital trade and trade barriers on China’s foreign trade potential at country-level. It evaluates the influence factor of China export potential to BRI countries via the aspect of digital commerce. Moreover, this article enriches the BRI literatures by employing stochastics frontier gravity model to examine the impact of digital trade on China trade potential and trade efficiency to BRI countries. The results of the study support the important role of BRI in facilitating digital trade among BRI countries and China. In addition to revealing the factors affecting digital trade (e.g., GDP and distance, bordering issue), the results highlight the importance of considering non-efficiency factors, in our case, the negative impact of digital trade restrictions on trade efficiency. The findings may provide some insight for policy makers (in China and BRI countries) into loosening the digital trade restrictions and improve trade efficacy along the BRI.

US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective

Since the US initiated the trade war and sought the decoupling of trade between China and the US, the US economic and financial situation has taken a sharp turn and inflation has remained high. So, this article studied the inflation analysis of the United States from the perspective of Sino-US trade and made a forecast. This paper constructs an ARIMAX model to empirically analyze the relationship between US-China trade and US inflation. The study shows that there is a significant positive correlation between China's export price index and the US CPI, which shows that China and the US are important stakeholders of each other. Because the United States is one of the largest economies, its economic development is of great significance to the world economic pattern and affects the whole world. Through the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States, the inflation rate of the United States will be reduced, and the economic growth of the United States will be promoted.

Can the digital economy accelerates China's export technology upgrading? Based on the perspective of export technology complexity

At present, the global division of labor system has entered a period of accelerated reconstruction. How to use the new generation of digital technology to achieve high-quality development of China's export trade has become the key to promoting the new development pattern of dual circulation at home and abroad. Based on the export technical complexity of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2020, this paper uses entropy weight TOPSIS to measure the development level of provincial digital economy, and deeply analyzes the impact and internal mechanism of digital economy on China's export technical complexity. The study found that the digital economy has significantly promoted the upgrading of China's export technology, and this improvement effect is most obvious in the eastern region. But the export quality of the western region has a negative inhibitory effect. From the perspective of the impact mechanism, the digital economy can achieve export technology upgrading by promoting knowledge spillover and accelerating the marketization process. From the perspective of industrial transformation and upgrading, the development of the digital economy accelerates the technological upgrading of export products through the upgrading of industrial structure, but it has no obvious impact on the rationalization of industrial structure. Further tests show that the effect of digital economy on the upgrading of export product quality is more prominent in low-tech industries. The conclusions of this paper provide data support and analysis perspective for exploring the innovative development of trade led by digital economy and enhancing the international competitiveness of China's foreign trade. It provides new ideas for improving the quality of China's high-quality external circulation development under the background of digital economy, and provides policy reference for the organic combination of digital economy development strategy and foreign power strategy.

Research on India-China agriculture trade dynamics: A comparative advantage analysis.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agriculture trade dynamic between India and China from 2002-2021. It employed the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices and various statistical analyses to assess the trade performance and provide an enhanced comprehension of the specialization pattern. The study has selected 45 agricultural commodities, categorized into seven sections according to the HS Nomenclature 2017. The findings revealed that India boasts a more diversified export portfolio compared to China, with a more significant number of agriculture chapters demonstrating a comparative advantage. Conversely, China's export basket is more concentrated, featuring fewer chapters with a comparative advantage but higher values of RCA and RSCA. The paper also identified the prospective areas for agriculture-trade cooperation and collaboration between the two countries and put forward recommendations. This research aims to offer valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and traders to enhance bilateral ties and mutual benefits in the agriculture sector.

Re-examining the trade competitiveness between USA and China: Empirical evidence from prominent international trade measures

The study re-examined the pattern of bilateral trade and extent of trade competitiveness between USA and China. Since both countries seem to be the largest bilateral trading partners in the world and the two largest economies in terms of gross domestic product, it is imperative to re-examine the bilateral trade relationship between them empirically. Previous studies have employed non econometric approaches to examine the effects of trade competitiveness on the volume and structure of bilateral exports between USA and China. However, this study adopts prominent international trade measures such as Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, Export Similarity Index and an econometric technique, the Gravity-Autoregressive Distributive Lag model to empirically analyze data spanning from 1992 to 2020 sourced from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database. The results revealed that USA and China export similar but differentiated products and it is the product differentiation that explains the huge volume of trade between them despite export similarity. Furthermore, the study discovered that there exists a moderate trade competitive but great trade complementary relationship between USA and China. Meanwhile, the study also found that a decrease in the extent of trade competitiveness between China and USA will significantly lead to an increase in the volume of bilateral exports between USA and China while an increase in the extent of trade competitiveness between China and USA will significantly lead to a decrease in the volume of bilateral exports between USA and China. Therefore, both countries will substantially benefit from trade if they cooperate rather than compete.

Exports of intermediate goods and innovation: Evidence from China’s firms

Based on the experience of developed countries, the production and export of intermediate goods have been observed to foster innovation within firms. This study investigates whether China's export of intermediate products has significantly enhanced the independent innovation capability of China’s firms. Using microdata and patent applications as a measure of innovation, we adopt the staggered PSM-DID method to explore the influence of China’s intermediate exports on firm innovation. We find that China's export of intermediate goods positively influences firm innovation, particularly utility patents. Domestic firms benefit more from this effect than foreign firms, and medium-high technology industries experience the most significant innovation impact. The export of intermediate goods stimulates innovation through the following channels: scale economies and employment structure optimization. These findings shed light on China's evolving innovation landscape.

The international spill over effect of American economy on China's macro-economy based on MCMC-Gibbs sampling algorithm.

China's export benefits from the significant fiscal stimulus in the United States. This paper analyzes the global spillover effect of the American economy on China's macro-economy using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Gibbs sampling approach, with the goal of improving the ability of China's financial system to protect against foreign threats. This paper examines the theories of the consequences of uncertainty on macroeconomics first. Then, using medium-sized economic and financial data, the uncertainty index of the American and Chinese economies is built. In order to complete the test and analysis of the dynamic relationship between American economic uncertainty and China's macro-economy, a Time Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Autoregression (TVP- VAR) model with random volatility is constructed. The model is estimated using the Gibbs sampling method based on MCMC. For the empirical analysis, samples of China's and the United States' economic data from January 2001 to January 2022 were taken from the WIND database and the FRED database, respectively. The data reveal that there are typically fewer than 5 erroneous components in the most estimated parameters of the MCMC model, which suggests that the model's sampling results are good. China's pricing level reacted to the consequences of the unpredictability of the American economy by steadily declining, reaching its lowest point during the financial crisis in 2009, and then gradually diminishing. After 2012, the greatest probability density range of 68% is extremely wide and contains 0, indicating that the impact of economic uncertainty in the United States on China's pricing level is no longer significant. China should therefore focus on creating a community of destiny by working with nations that have economic cooperation to lower systemic financial risks and guarantee the stability of the capital market.

China's lithium supply chains: Network evolution and resilience assessment

As the world's largest consumer of lithium resources, China faces a substantial demand-supply gap and challenges in securing its lithium supply chain. This study aims to examine the evolution of China's lithium supply chain networks from 2017 to 2021 and employs an attack model to reveal network resilience. A lithium supply chain network is constructed across the entire industry, offering a novel perspective for examining the resilience of lithium resource trade networks. Simulated disturbances are executed via attack models, analysing not only trade nodes but also specific trade relationships while differentiating between import and export subnetworks, thus providing an in-depth examination of structural evolution and resilience characteristics. Our findings highlight the rapid decrease in total lithium throughflows and stable network efficiency from 2017 to 2021. A decline is also observed regarding the network's resilience. Among the different forms of simulated disruptions, node attacks exert the most substantial impact on resilience. The effects of node and edge attacks are notably less severe in China's export subnetwork than in its import subnetwork. In the import subnetwork, the influence of Asian and European nodes diminishes, while South America and Oceania show an increasing influence trend. For exports, the Asian node remains influential, followed by Europe, with Eastern Europe surpassing Western Europe. Upon closer examination of specific products' trade impacts under edge attacks, the results indicate that most trade relationships have minimal impacts on network resilience. There is a persistent increase in the influence of key upstream products in the import sector. Similarly, the influence of key downstream products in the export sector is also on the rise, underscoring China's global leadership in both mid- and downstream products and illustrating its expanding production capacity. The structural changes of complex networks and simultaneous targeted attacks provide new insights for enhancing resilience given the different disruptions of nodes and edges, and outline important policy implications for China's lithium supply security.

The impact of Chinese cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade

With the rise of trade protectionism, the growth rate of China's export trade has slowed down, but cross-border e-commerce exports have emerged as a "new engine" for China's foreign trade growth. The country has also begun to pay more attention to the development of cross-border e-commerce, introducing a series of policies and establishing many comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones. Against this background, Studying the impact of the development level of cross-border e-commerce on export trade can provide a basis for formulating policies related to cross-border e-commerce, promote the development of cross-border e-commerce in various regions, and drive China's export growth, thereby empowering China's foreign trade industry transformation and upgrading. This article selects the number of online shopping users in each city as a proxy variable for the development level of cross-border e-commerce. Through regression analysis, it can be concluded that the development level of cross-border e-commerce can significantly positively affect export trade, and the heterogeneity analysis results show that there are regional differences in the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade. Finally, policy recommendations were provided based on the research findings.

Impact of third-party online payment systems on trade, export, import, and internet retailing

<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">This study estimates the impact of third-party online payment systems on trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. Also, the study examines the financial development mechanism via which third-party payment affects trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. By employing a sample of 31 provinces in China covering 2011 to 2018, the findings indicate that, third-party payment drives China’s trade (0.43%), export (0.42%), import (0.47%), and Internet retailing (0.24%). The study also finds that third-party payment complements financial development to positively affect trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. The study recommends policymakers promote third-party payment development in China to boost trade, export, import, and Internet retailing.</span></p>