China Health Statistics Yearbook Research Articles

Efficiency performance of China's health care delivery system.

Improving efficiency performance of the health care delivery system has been on the agenda for the health system reform that China initiated in 2009. This study examines the changes in efficiency performance and determinants of efficiency after the reform to provide evidence to assess the progress of the reform from the perspective of efficiency. Descriptive analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis, the Malmquist Index, and multilevel regressions are used with data from multiple sources, including the World Bank, the China Health Statistical Yearbook, and routine reports. The results indicate that over the last decade, health outcomes compared with health investment were relatively higher in China than in most other countries worldwide, and the trend was stable. The overall efficiency and total factor productivity increased after the reform, indicating that the reform was likely to have had a positive impact on the efficiency performance of the health care delivery system. However, the health care delivery structure showed low system efficiency, mainly attributed to the weakened primary health care system. Strengthening the primary health care system is central to enhancing the future performance of China's health care delivery system.

A cost-benefit analysis of occupational disease reporting in China

Objective: To perform a cost-benefit analysis of the occupational disease reporting system in China, and to provide a basis for effective resource allocation. Methods: The data on the cost of occupational diseases were collected from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2013, the estimated benefit data were collected from published articles in China and foreign countries, and the probability data were collected from the occupational diseasereports published by health and family planning administrative departments. Adecision-making tree was used for the cost-benefit analysis. Results: The estimated cost of occupational disease reporting was about 102.47 million yuan/year, consisting of a cost of reporting in national medical institutions of 1.25 million yuan/year, a management cost of 30.35 million yuan/year, a management cost in local public health institutions of 69.80 million yuan/year, a management cost in national public health institutions of 370 thousand yuan/year, and a cost of construction and maintenance of reporting system of 700 thousand yuan/year. The results of the decision tree analysis showed that when an occupational disease monitoring system was established, the incremental input for occupational disease monitoring and prevention/control was 2.1 billion yuan/year, the output was 6.5 billion yuan/year, and the benefit of occupational disease reporting system was 4.4 billion yuan/year. Conclusion: The benefit of occupational disease reporting system depends on the cost-benefit of occupational disease prevention and control measures, and proper prevention and control measures are extremely important for improving the benefit of occupational disease reporting system.

Effect of health insurance on direct hospitalisation costs for in-patients with ischaemic stroke in China

Objectives The aim of the present study was to determine the direct medical costs of hospitalisations for ischaemic stroke (IS) in-patients with different types of health insurance in China and to analyse the demographic characteristics of hospitalised patients, based on data supplied by the China Health Insurance Research Association (CHIRA). Methods A nationwide and cross-sectional sample of IS in-patients with International Classifications of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) Code I63 who were ensured under either the Basic Medical Insurance Scheme for Employees (BMISE) or the Basic Medical Insurance Scheme for Urban Residents (BMISUR) was extracted from the CHIRA claims database. A retrospective analysis was used with regard to patient demographics, total hospital charges and costs. Results Of the 49588 hospitalised patients who had been diagnosed with IS in the CHIRA claims database, 28850 (58.2%) were men (mean age 67.34 years) and 20738 (41.8%) were women (mean age 69.75 years). Of all patients, 40347 (81.4%) were insured by the BMISE, whereas 8724 (17.6%) were insured by the BMISUR; the mean age of these groups was 68.55 and 67.62 years respectively. For BMISE-insured in-patients, the cost per hospitalisation was RMB10131 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10014-10258), the cost per hospital day was RMB787 (95% CI 766-808), the out-of-pocket costs per patient were RMB2346 (95% CI 2303-2388) and the reimbursement rate was 74.61% (95% CI 74.48-74.73%). For BMISUR-insured in-patients the cost per hospitalisation was RMB7662 (95% CI 7473-7852), the cost per hospital day was RMB744 (95% CI 706-781), the out-of-pocket costs per patient were RMB3356 (95% CI 3258-3454) and the reimbursement rate was 56.46% (95% CI 56.08-56.84%). Conclusions Costs per hospitalisation, costs per hospital day and the reimbursement rate were higher for BMISE- than BMISUR-insured in-patients, but BMISE-insured patients had lower out-of-pocket costs. The financial burden was higher for BMISUR- than BMISE-insured in-patients. For BMISUR-insured in-patients, the out-of-pocket payment was 43.54% of total expenses, which means the government should increase the financial investment, raise reimbursement rates and set up differential reimbursements to meet the health needs of in-patients with different income levels. What is known about the topic? Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are major non-communicable diseases affecting the health of the Chinese population. The China Health Statistics Yearbook (2013) reported that across all in-patients, 195million (5.82%) had been discharged with a diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease. Of these, 118million had IS, accounting for 60.51% of all in-patients with cerebrovascular disease and 54.97% of hospitalisation costs for all cerebrovascular disease in-patients. After the two basic insurance systems, namely the BMISE and BMISUR, had been established, the out-of-pocket expenses for patients were reduced. However, to date there have been no studies investigating how the different types of health insurance (i.e. the BMISE and the BMISUR) affected the costs of treatment of IS in-patients in China. What does this paper add? This paper reports the direct costs for patients diagnosed with IS based on data supplied by the CHIRA. Direct hospitalisation costs depending on the type of insurance cover, age and gender were also evaluated. What are the implications for practitioners? The present study found that the personal financial burden of disease treatment was higher for in-patients insured under the BMISUR than BMISE. For in-patients insured under the BMISUR, the out-of-pocket payment was 43.54% of total expenses, which means the government should increase the financial investment, raise reimbursement rates and set up differential reimbursement rates to meet the health needs of patients with different incomes.

Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis on Selection Behavior of Trans-Regional Hospitals and Patients in Telemedicine System

This study applies the game theory to the discussion and analysis of trans-regional Telemedicine System, builds the game model of the selection strategies of trans-regional hospitals and patients and analyzes evolving paths, equilibrium states and influencing factors of the three parties. It is derived that medical insurance reimbursement proportion of specialized hospitals, government support for general hospitals and medical expenses in specialized hospitals, operating costs of general hospitals are the influential factors in the Telemedicine System. Finally, a numerical stimulation is conducted with Matlapb based on the data from China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2015.

Influencing factors of inpatient expenditure pattern for cancer in China, 2015.

ObjectiveWe analyzed the proportion of cancer-caused hospitalization expenses in total hospitalization expenses from national authoritative data and explored influencing factors of the proportion so as to provide effective data information for more rational utilization of health resources.MethodsTwo-level lineal regression model was used to explore influencing factors of ratios of the cancer inpatient expenditure over the total inpatient expenditure of hospitals in China in 2015. A total of 40.76 million inpatient medical records were used to generate the outcome variables, while the explanatory variables were from hospital information database and China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook and literatures.ResultsInpatient expenditure pattern for cancer (IEPC) varied largely across provinces, ranging from 3.03% to 19.61%. The major sources of variability were from the differences of hospital level and number of beds. There was homogeneity within a province, while heterogeneity between the provinces. Rising one level of the hospital led to the increase of 0.475 natural logarithm units of IEPC averagely. The number of beds increasing 1,000 each made the natural logarithm of IEPC increase one unit averagely.ConclusionsOur study showed that a considerable proportion of IEPC variation could be explained by the differences of hospital level and number of beds. It implied that it is possible to estimate disease-specific ratio of inpatient expense taking into account key influencing factors in China. Furthermore, this study is an input to economic and financial analyses and provides evidence for future study on the national economic burden of cancer.

Disease burden of famale breast cancer in China

To analyze the data on burden of female breast cancer in China. The data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report 2012, three national death cause surveys in China, Disease Surveillance Points system(DSP), China Health Statistics Yearbook, GLOBOCAN 2012, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents(CI5), WHO Mortality Database and Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2013 were used to extract the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of female breast cancer and analyze related trends in China. The data from three national death cause surveys showed that the crude mortality of breast cancer doubled from year 1973-1975 to year 2004-2005, the increase was higher in urban area(127.4%)than in rural area(75.2%). WHO Mortality Database showed that average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer crude mortality increased by 3.1%(P<0.05)from 1987 to 2000, and China Health Statistics Yearbook showed that the AAPC in urban females increased by 2.7% from 2002 to 2013(P<0.05), whereas the AAPC in rural females showed no significant change(P>0.05). It was estimated by GLOBOCAN 2012 that in 2012 the age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality of breast cancer in China was 22.1 per 100 000 and 5.4 per 100 000, respectively. The age-specific incidence began to increase obviously at age of 40 years and peaked at age 45-59 years(GLOBOCAN 2012). Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report 2012 showed that breast cancer incidence and mortality were 2-fold and 1.5-fold higher in urban females than in rural females in 2009. It was estimated that the breast cancer case number and death number in females in China would increase to 251 600 and 75 900, respectively, more increose in age group ≥65 years. Only GBD 2013 reported DALY, the DALY caused by breast cancer in China was 1 666.0 thousand in 2013, accounting for 12.7% of global DALY, and increased by 56.7% from 1990(1 062.6 thousand), the peak age-specific DALY rate was at 50 to 59 years, and national average ratio of years lived with disability(YLD)was 8.7%(ranging from 8.1% to 9.0% at provincial level). Burden of disease caused by female breast cancer is becoming increasingly severe in China, especially in urban areas. It is necessary to strengthen the population-based prevention and control programs and further studies may focus on DALY.

An investigation Into Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospitals in China: Development Trend and Medical Service Innovation.

Background: This paper aims to investigate the development trend of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals in China and explore their medical service innovations, with special reference to the changing co-existence with western medicine (WM) at TCM hospitals. Methods: Quantitative data at macro level was collected from official databases of China Health Statistical Yearbook and Extracts of Traditional Chinese Medicine Statistics. Qualitative data at micro level was gathered through interviews and second-hand material collection at two of the top-level TCM hospitals. Results: In both outpatient and inpatient sectors of TCM hospitals, drug fees accounted for the biggest part of hospital revenue. Application of WM medical exanimation increased in both outpatient and inpatient services. Even though the demand for WM drugs was much higher in inpatient care, TCM drugs was the winner in the outpatient. Also qualitative evidence showed that TCM dominated the outpatient hospital service with WM incorporated in the assisting role. However, it was in the inpatient medical care that WM prevailed over TCM which was mostly applied to the rehabilitation of patients. Conclusion: By drawing on WM while keeping it active in supporting and strengthening the TCM operation in the TCM hospital, the current system accommodates the overriding objective which is for TCM to evolve into a fully informed and more viable medical field.

National equity of health resource allocation in China: data from 2009 to 2013.

BackgroundThe inequitable allocation of health resources is a worldwide problem, and it is also one of the obstacles facing for health services utilization in China. A new round of health care reform which contains the important aspect of improving the equity in health resource allocation was released by Chinese government in 2009. The aim of this study is to understand the changes of equity in health resource allocation from 2009 to 2013, and make a further inquiry of the main factors which influence the equity conditions in China.MethodsData resources are the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2014) and the China Statistical Yearbook (2014). Four indicators were chosen to measure the trends in equity of health resource allocation. Data were disaggregated by three geographical regions: west, central, and east. Theil index was used to calculate the degree of unfairness.ResultsThe total amount of health care resources in China had been increasing in recent years. However, the per 10, 000 km2 number of health resources showed a huge gap in different regions, and per 10, 000 capita health resources ownership showed a relatively small disparities at the same time. The index of health resources showed an overall downward trend, in which health financial investment the most unfair from 2009 to 2012 and the number of health institutions the most unfair in 2013. The equity of health resources allocation in eastern regions was the worst except for the aspect of health technical personnel allocation. The regional contribution rates were lower than that of the inter-regional contribution rates which were all beyond 60 %.ConclusionThe equity of health resource allocation improved gradually from 2009 to 2013. However, the internal differences within the eastern region still have a huge impact on the overall equity in health resource allocation. The tough issues of inequitable in health resource allocation should be resolved by comprehensive measures from a multidisciplinary perspective.

Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

BackgroundAlthough a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously.MethodsInfectious disease mortality rates (1990–2010) of urban and rural residents (5–84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE).ResultsInfectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5–9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10–19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906–1910 to the 1941–1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.ConclusionsWith the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

Inequality trends of health workforce in different stages of medical system reform (1985-2011) in China.

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to identify whether policies in different stages of medical system reform had been effective in decreasing inequalities and increasing the density of health workers in rural areas in China between 1985 and 2011.MethodsWith data from China Health Statistics Yearbooks from 2004 to 2012, we measured the Gini coefficient and the Theil L index across the urban and rural areas from 1985 to 2011 to investigate changes in inequalities in the distributions of health workers, doctors, and nurses by states, regions, and urban-rural stratum and account for the sources of inequalities.ResultsWe found that the overall inequalities in the distribution of health workers decreased to the lowest in 2000, then increased gently until 2011. Nurses were the most unequally distributed between urban-rural districts among health workers. Most of the overall inequalities in the distribution of health workers across regions were due to inequalities within the rural-urban stratum.Discussions and conclusionsDifferent policies and interventions in different stages would result in important changes in inequality in the distribution of the health workforce. It was also influenced by other system reforms, like the urbanization, education, and employment reforms in China. The results are useful for the Chinese government to decide how to narrow the gap of the health workforce and meet its citizens’ health needs to the maximum extent.

Abstract 14615: The Preventable Causes of Cardiovascular Diseases in China: Comparative Risk Assessment of Dietary, Lifestyle, and Metabolic Risk Factors

Background: fuelled by rapid urbanization and changes in dietary and lifestyle choices, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as the leading cause of death in China. Purposes: to estimate the CVD events that potentially contributed to 9 modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors in China. Methods: We used data on risk factor exposures in the Chinese population from nationally representative health surveys and CVD morbidity and mortality statistics from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and the National Population Census. We obtained the etiological effects of risk factors on CVD risk, by age, from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. We estimated the number of CVD events attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factor exposure, by urban/rural, age and sex. Results: Based on the exposure distribution estimated by 2009 China Health Nutrition Survey, the population attributable risk (PAR) on CVD events was 47.3% for high blood pressure, 23.2%, for physical inactivity, 18.5% for smoking, 13.5 for high BMI, 13.0% for high LDL cholesterol, 11.8% for high blood glucose, 11.1% for low dietary intakes of fruit and vegetable, 7.1% for high sodium intake and 3.5% for low PUFA intake, which was 78.0%, 18.8%, 20.9%, 21.9%, 8.2%, 16.1%, 12.0%, 20.3% and 2.0%, respectively, based on exposure distribution of 2002 China National Nutrition and Health Survey. In 2009, high blood pressure was responsible for 3.9 million CVD events, including 1.4 million CHD, 1.5 million ischemic strokes and 1 million hemorrhagic strokes. Large gender difference was found for PAR% of smoking (male 27.8%/female 6.5%). Conclusions: High blood pressure, smoking and physical inactivity, which all have effective interventions, are responsible for the largest number of CVD events in China. Other dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors for chronic diseases also cause a substantial number of CVD morbidity and mortality in China.

The old age health security in rural China: where to go?

IntroductionThe huge number of rural elders and the deepening health problems (e.g. growing threats of infectious diseases and chronic diseases etc.) place enormous pressure on old age health security in rural China. This study aims to provide information for policy-makers to develop effective measures for promoting rural elders’ health care service access by examining the current developments and challenges confronted by the old age health security in rural China.MethodsSearch resources are electronic databases, web pages of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China on the internet, China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook, China Civil Affairs’ Statistical Yearbook and China Health Statistics Yearbooks etc. Articles were identified from Elsevier, Wiley, EBSCO, EMBASE, PubMed, SCI Expanded, ProQuest, and National Knowledge Infrastructure of China (CNKI) which is the most informative database in Chinese. Search terms were “rural”, “China”, “health security”, “cooperative medical scheme”, “social medical assistance”, “medical insurance” or “community based medical insurance”, “old”, or “elder”, “elderly”, or “aged”, “aging”. Google scholar was searched with the same combination of keywords.ResultsThe results showed that old age health security in rural China had expanded to all rural elders and substantially improved health care service utilization among rural elders. Increasing chronic disease prevalence rates, pressing public health issues, inefficient rural health care service provision system and lack of sufficient financing challenged the old age health security in rural China.ConclusionsIncreasing funds from the central and regional governments for old age health security in rural China will contribute to reducing urban–rural disparities in provision of old age health security and increasing health equity among rural elders between different regions. Meanwhile, initiating provider payment reform may contribute to improving the efficiency of rural health care service provision system and promoting health care service access among rural elders.

Health-system determinants of declines in maternal mortality in China between 1996 and 2013: a provincial econometric analysis

BackgroundMaternal mortality in China has decreased strikingly over the past 20 years, and China is one of the few countries achieving Millennium Development Goal 5. Between 1996 and 2013, China substantially strengthened the maternal-health sector: a large number of funds were invested in maternal health, maternal health facilities were substantially improved, and maternal-health professionals received increased training. China also made substantial investments in the overall health-systems reform, including increases in overall health expenditure, universal health insurance coverage, and the number of health professionals per person. All of these health-systems improvements are thought to have contributed to reductions in maternal mortality in China, but which improvements carried the greatest weight were not known. The aim of this study was to examine health-systems determinates of declines in maternal mortality in China. MethodsWe used a panel dataset of 31 provinces from China between 1996 and 2013 to examine the effects of health-systems factors on maternal mortality. Our data on health systems were obtained from China Statistical Yearbooks, China Health Statistical Yearbooks, and other national and provincial publications. Data on maternal mortality were obtained from the Annual Report of Maternal and Child Health information. We ran fixed-effects regressions using the logarithm of maternal mortality as the dependent variable. The health-system determinants studied were health expenditure, number of hospital beds, human resources, and length of highways. We controlled for income, female literacy, birth rate, and local tax revenue capacity. All data used were publicly available, aggregate secondary data; therefore, this study was exempt from ethics approval. No individual patient data were used, so no informed consent from patients was necessary. FindingsMaternal mortality fell from 66 to 14 deaths per 100 000 livebirths between 1996 and 2013 (32 to 8 deaths per 100 000 livebirths in eastern region, 52 to 13 deaths per 100 000 livebirths in central region, and 109 to 23 deaths per 100 000 in western region). Hospital beds per 1000 population (elasticity –0·78 [p=0·023]) and length of highways (–0·31 [p=0·010]) were significantly associated with maternal mortality. Health expenditure and the density of health workers had no effect on maternal mortality.” InterpretationAccess to health care is important in accounting for variation in maternal mortality between provinces and over time in China. Hospital infrastructure, in particular, might have been a key driver of the reduction in maternal mortality in the past two decades. FundingUS Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, and Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

China's three-year health reform program and equity in sanitation improvement: a panel analysis.

BackgroundAccessible improved sanitation is critical to child health, and inequities in improved sanitation can be interpreted as health inequities across socio-economic groups. From 2009 to 2011, the Chinese government invested 4.448 billion yuan for rural sanitation improvement through a 3-year health reform program. This study assesses the inequity of sanitation improvement in rural China from 2003 to 2011 and examines whether the 3-year health reform program promoted equity in sanitation improvement.MethodsData from the China Health Statistics Yearbooks of 2004 to 2012 and the National Bureau of Statistics of China were used to create the concentration curve (CC), concentration index (CI), and absolute concentration index (ACI) of improved sanitation. Data of central investment for sanitation improvement in each province of China for 2009, 2010, and 2011 was gained through correspondence and used to create the CC and CI for investment.ResultsAlthough the CIs of improved sanitation are lower than the CIs of the net income of rural residents, the latter have an obvious downtrend. The CIs of improved sanitation increased from 2003 until 2008 and started to drop in 2009. As a result, by 2011, the CIs of improved sanitation had reached their 2003 levels. The ACI of improved sanitation decreased slightly from 2003 to 2008, but declined sharply from 2009 to 2011. The CIs of central investment for 2009, 2010, and 2011 are negative and the CCs of central investment are above the line of absolute equality, indicating that investments had been concentrated more on poorer provinces and regions.ConclusionsThe equality of rural residents’ net income has been improving each year, whereas equity in sanitation improvement deteriorated from 2003 to 2008. However, equity in sanitation improvement has increased since 2009 due to central investment in sanitation improvement during the 3-year health reform program that benefits low-income areas more. It is clear that the 3-year health reform program played an important role in promoting the level and equity of sanitation improvement.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1364-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Have health human resources become more equal between rural and urban areas after the new reform?

The lack of health human resources is a global issue. China also faces the same issue, in addition to the equity of human resources allocation. With the launch of new healthcare reform of China in 2009, have the issues been improved? Relevant data from China Health Statistical Yearbook and a qualitative study show that the unequal allocation of health human resources is getting worse than before.

Epidemiology and microbiology of sepsis in mainland China in the first decade of the 21st century

This study describes the epidemiological and microbiological profile of sepsis during the first decade of the 21(st) century in mainland China. The sepsis-related mortality data from 2003 and 2007 were retrieved from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. The microbiology data were retrieved and selected from a literature search of the China Academic Journal Database between 2001 and 2009. A meta-analysis was performed to synthesize the available data on the proportion of positive blood cultures in septic patients and the microorganism distribution. The sepsis mortality in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas declined obviously over time. The mortality of the subpopulations aged 1-54 years tended to be lower than the national averages. In contrast, the sepsis mortality among neonates and the elderly (≥75 years) was obviously higher than national averages. While the mortality in the elderly declined between 2003 and 2007, the neonate sepsis mortality increased dramatically, especially among male neonates. The overall positivity of blood culture were 17.0%, 13.3% and 10.6% among neonatal, pediatric and adult patients with suspected sepsis, respectively; this proportion tended to decrease over time. Among identified microorganisms, the proportions of Gram (+) and (-) bacteria were similar (47.2% vs. 44.5%) among adult patients, while Gram (+) bacteria was predominant among neonatal (77.4%) and pediatric (73.2%) patients and increased in prevalence over time. The positivity of blood cultures and proportions of microorganisms varied by geographical region across mainland China. Sepsis with fungus was rare but was more prevalent in adult sepsis patients (6.4%) than in neonatal patients (0.8%). The difference in sepsis mortality between urban and rural areas decreased over time. Males, the elderly, and neonates were found to be high-risk subpopulations. Gram (+) bacteria were predominant among neonates with sepsis, but the proportion of patients with Gram (+) or Gram (-) bacteria was similar among adults with sepsis.

Age-period-cohort analysis on the cancer mortality in rural China: 1990–2010

BackgroundCancer has become a global health problem. China still suffers continuous increasing cancer mortality. To study the trend of cancer mortality in rural China, this paper established an Age-Period-Cohort model to discuss the age effect, period effect and cohort effect on cancer mortality in rural China.MethodsThe data were collected from the “China Health Statistical Yearbook” from 1990 to 2010. Collected data were analyzed by Age-Period-Cohort model and Intrinsic Estimation method.ResultsThe age effect on the total cancer mortality represented a V trend. Compared with Group 0–4, Group 5–9 showed 71.87% lower cancer mortality risk. Compared with Group 5–9, Group 75–79 showed 38 times higher cancer mortality risk. The period effect on the total cancer mortality risk weakened firstly but then increased. It increased by 35.70% from 1990 to 2010, showing an annual average growth of 1.79%. The cohort effect on the total cancer mortality risk weakened by totally 84.94% from 1906–1910 to 2005–2010. Three “deterioration periods” and three “improvement periods” were witnessed during this period. The malignant cancer mortality varied similarly with the total cancer mortality, while benign cancer mortality and other cancer mortality represented different variation laws.ConclusionsAlthough the total cancer mortality risk is increasing at an accelerated rate, cancer mortality risk in recent born year is decreasing, indicating very important impact of social change on the cancer mortality in rural China.

For-profit medical institutions in China: current status analysis and comparison with non-profit ones

Objectives For-profit medical institutions were officially allowed to enter the Chinese medical market since 2000, which raised a lot of debate about positioning of for-profit medical institutions. The objective of this study was to compare non-profit and for-profit medical institutions in terms of market scale, medical quality and service efficiency, and to investigate the market potential for for-profit medical institutions in China. Methods Data were collected from multiple sources, including China Health Statistical Yearbook, National Health Services Survey and China Statistical Yearbook. We assessed the performance of the two types of medical institutions from three aspects: market scale, medical quality and service efficiency. Key findings The result showed that for-profit medical institutions increased obviously in the cities of China. Compared with non-profit medical institutions, for-profit medical institutions have less market scale. However, medical quality and service efficiency of for-profit medical institutions are mostly the same as those of non-profit medical institutions. Besides, for-profit medical institutions have great market potential in top medical service market in the coming future. Conclusion For-profit medical institutions have realized great development in China. A quite large potential market still exists for for-profit medical institutions because of the increasing medical service demand and the improving insurance system in China. However, the long-term development of for-profit medical institutions depends on policy design in establishing and implementing fair systems of medical evaluation, technology accreditation and talent assessment.

The Application of the Grey Disaster Model to Forecast Epidemic Peaks of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in China

ObjectiveThe objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases.MethodsAccording to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. Model fitting accuracy test was used to evaluate the performance of these two models. Then, the next catastrophe date was predicted by the better model.ResultsThe simulation results showed that DGM model was better than GM(1,1) model in our data set. Using the DGM model, we predicted the next epidemic peak time will occur between 2023 to 2025.ConclusionThe grey disaster model can predict the typhoid and paratyphoid fever epidemic time precisely, which may provide valuable information for disease prevention and control.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis between Amlodipine and Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers in Stroke and Myocardial Infarction Prevention among Hypertension Patients in China

ObjectiveUncontrolled hypertension (HTN) results in strokes, myocardial infarction (MI), and other complications, which are the leading cause of disability, death, and severe economic consequence. We conducted an economic evaluation to determine the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with amlodipine (Norvasc) and the angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) in preventing stroke and MI among Chinese HTN patients. MethodsA cost-utility analysis was conducted from the third-party payer perspective. A Markov model was constructed to estimate 5-year costs and health consequences of amlodipine and valsartan. Effectiveness data were based on a published meta-analysis. Utility data were retrieved from the published literature. Costs of MI were retrieved from China Health Statistics Yearbook. Costs of stroke were obtained from retrospective chart review and follow-up interviews in Chinese tertiary hospitals. Costs included costs of drugs, direct medical costs of HTN management, stroke/MI treatment, and follow-up management. Discounting rate used for costs and QALYs was 3%. ResultsTotal direct medical and drug costs of amlodipine and valsartan (ARB) users were ¥111,731,716 and ¥132,058,611, respectively; total QALYs of amlodipine and valsartan users were 30,648.5 and 30,520.8, respectively. Amlodipine is dominant with lower costs and higher QALYs. This demonstrated that compared with valsartan, amlodipine is a cost-saving therapy with better QALY outcome. When irbesartan data were used in the comparison, the magnitude of cost saving changed but the overall conclusion remained the same. ConclusionAmlodipine is a cost-saving therapy compared with ARBs in preventing stroke and MI for Chinese HTN patients.