Abstract
BackgroundCancer has become a global health problem. China still suffers continuous increasing cancer mortality. To study the trend of cancer mortality in rural China, this paper established an Age-Period-Cohort model to discuss the age effect, period effect and cohort effect on cancer mortality in rural China.MethodsThe data were collected from the “China Health Statistical Yearbook” from 1990 to 2010. Collected data were analyzed by Age-Period-Cohort model and Intrinsic Estimation method.ResultsThe age effect on the total cancer mortality represented a V trend. Compared with Group 0–4, Group 5–9 showed 71.87% lower cancer mortality risk. Compared with Group 5–9, Group 75–79 showed 38 times higher cancer mortality risk. The period effect on the total cancer mortality risk weakened firstly but then increased. It increased by 35.70% from 1990 to 2010, showing an annual average growth of 1.79%. The cohort effect on the total cancer mortality risk weakened by totally 84.94% from 1906–1910 to 2005–2010. Three “deterioration periods” and three “improvement periods” were witnessed during this period. The malignant cancer mortality varied similarly with the total cancer mortality, while benign cancer mortality and other cancer mortality represented different variation laws.ConclusionsAlthough the total cancer mortality risk is increasing at an accelerated rate, cancer mortality risk in recent born year is decreasing, indicating very important impact of social change on the cancer mortality in rural China.
Highlights
Cancer mortality is increasing continuously, and becomes the second leading cause of death in developed countries and third leading cause of death in developing countries [1]
The total cancer mortality risk increased with age
Before 20 years old, the cancer mortality risk was lower without obvious change (Figure 1)
Summary
The benign cancer mortality risk decreased from Group 0–9 and its broken line became close to the X-axis It increased significantly after 35 years old and showed a wave growth after 65 years old. The coefficient of estimation of period effect on other cancer mortality changed significantly, which increased firstly and decreased. The age effect on the total cancer mortality decreased firstly and increased, reaching the bottom at Group 5–9. The coefficient of estimation of other cancer mortality fluctuated more violently, especially at younger groups It decreased significantly after 70–74 years old. The estimation coefficient of benign cancer mortality fluctuated at younger groups and increased continuously after 20–24 years old. The. velocity of increase and decrease of benign cancer mortality varied in different birth years, resulting in no strong variation law
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