Vote Changes Research Articles

How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption

Are identities fungible? How do people come to identify with specific groups? This paper proposes a revealed preference approach, using food consumption to uncover ethnic and religious identity choices in India. We first show that consumption of identity goods (e.g. beef and pork) responds to forces suggested by social-identity research: group status and group salience, with the latter proxied by inter-group conflict. Moreover, identity choices respond to the cost of following the group’s prescribed behaviors. We propose and estimate a modified demand system to quantify the identity changes that followed India’s 1991 economic reforms. Notably, our estimated identity changes correlate with changes in vote shares for ethnic and religious parties. While social-identity research has focused on status and salience, our results suggest that economic costs also play an important role.

The impact of indoor environment quality (IEQ) on school children's overall comfort in the UK; a regression approach

Indoor Environment Quality (IEQ) is grouped into four main categories: thermal comfort, indoor air quality (IAQ), visual and acoustic comfort. Individual aspects of IEQ are investigated to examine their impact on children's overall comfort in primary schools in the UK. This study has surveyed 805 children in 32 naturally ventilated classrooms during non-heating and heating seasons. This study has calculated the proportion of comfort votes by individual aspects of IEQ, predicted comfort votes by multilinear regression model and estimated the probability of having uncomfortable votes by binary logistic regression.Results of this study highlight that the proportion of uncomfortable votes should be kept below 10%. The developed multilinear model suggests that for a unit change in Air Sensation Votes (ASVs) and operative temperatures (Top), comfort votes change by 0.28 and 0.12, respectively. Developed multilinear and logistic regression models show that ASVs have a more significant impact on overall comfort than Top. To achieve acceptable comfortable votes and keep the probability of having uncomfortable votes below 10%, ASVs and Top should be kept within these limits: [ASV = very fresh and Top = 19–27 °C], [ASV = fresh and Top = 19–24 °C], and [ASV = OK and Top = 19–22 °C]. The ranges suggest that better perception of IAQ makes up for higher temperatures. It is advised to maintain individual aspects of IEQ, however, dissatisfaction with one aspect of IEQ does not necessarily result in overall discomfort unless that aspect is extremely unacceptable. Investigating the most influential factors on occupants’ comfort suggests which building controls should be prioritized for designers.

Malaysia’s 14th General Election: dissecting the ‘Malaysian tsunami’—measuring the impacts of ethnicity and urban development on electoral outcomes

ABSTRACT The 14th Malaysian general elections (GE14) resulted in a regime change not experienced since independence. While ethnicity has been an overriding factor in determining electoral outcomes, urbanization has recently been considered a competing factor that might weaken the effects of ethnicity. Using a new methodology to model the compositional effects of ethnicity, we analyse the effects of both factors on the GE14 in our regression models. The findings show that both ethnicity and urban development do affect electoral outcomes, with ethnicity being the more dominant factor. Additionally, multivariate results show that neither malapportionment nor redelineation explains electoral outcomes. We provide a dissection of the ‘Malaysian tsunami’ examining vote change patterns between GE13 and GE14 using an ethnic and rural-urban continuum. The analysis reveals that effects of the tsunami are not evenly spread across ethnic groups and geographical regions, with the Malay majority and ethnically mixed seats displaying contrasting voting patterns.

Ethno-religious voting in Nigeria: interrogating voting patterns in the 2019 presidential election

ABSTRACT This article analyses voting patterns in Nigeria’s 2019 presidential election. Its main objective is to gauge continuity or change in ethnic, regional and religious voting in Nigeria’s elections. The paper takes a historical approach in examining voting patterns in the past elections as a background to the examination of the 2019 presidential election. It was discovered that ethnic, regional and religious sentiments were still major factors that shaped voting choice in the election.

Economic performance and electoral volatility: Testing the economic voting hypothesis on Indian states, 1957–2013

The consequences of variations in economic growth for vote volatility are analyzed on a panel of 14 Indian states between 1957 and 2013. Two measures of volatility are used: changes in party vote shares at the assembly level and changes in the state average of vote volatilities constructed at the constituency level. While the results find that both vary inversely with income growth rates, volatility at the constituency level is found to be more sensitive to growth rates. Examination of the periodicity of income growth’s impact finds that growth in the final year of governance has a stronger effect on volatility than does the average growth rate arising over the incumbent’s tenure. We confirm for Indian states that vote volatility responds more to negative changes than positive changes in the growth rate and, by decomposing volatility we find, contrary to most studies, that growth rates affect internal vote shifting more than shifting between exiting parties and newcomers. The responsiveness of volatility to economic and political characteristics of the state reinforces the hypothesis that theories of economic voting have an important role to play in understanding electoral volatility and may provide a more insightful way of approaching the political business cycle.

Experimental study of the changes in thermal expectation during simulated flights in a civil aircraft cabin mockup

Aircraft cabin thermal environment is a key issue on flight selection by passengers, especially for long-haul flights. Currently, there have been some studies on the passengers’ thermal comfort in civil aircraft cabins. However, information is still limited on the changes in passenger thermal expectation with flight time. In this study, an aircraft cabin mockup was built, and three experiments involving human subjects were carried out in order to study the in-flight thermal environment in winter, summer and autumn, respectively. The cabin temperatures during the experiments were controlled according to the thermal neutral temperature model derived from our previous study on actual flights. The thermal neutral temperature model was checked by experimental results. The changes in thermal expectation were investigated based on physical measurement and questionnaire survey. In each experiment, the changes in the mean thermal sensation votes of passengers were less than 1, while the cabin temperature increased by 2.8°C, 1.8°C and 2°C from the beginning to the end during the three experiments, respectively. With the increase in the simulated flight time, passengers gradually expected a slightly higher cabin temperature. This trend would become very obvious when the simulated flight time was longer than 2 h.

How Parties React to Voter Transitions

This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties’ policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties’ policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individual parties. However, parties do not know only whether they have won or lost in an election; they also have detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost votes to. We make two arguments about how voter transitions should affect the strategic policy choices of political parties. First, when a party has lost votes to another party it will adapt its policy positions toward that party. Second, parties that have overall lost more votes become more likely to adapt their positions. Making use of a data set on individual voter transitions and party positions we can demonstrate that voter transitions indeed affect parties’ competitive behavior.

Effects of signalling tax evasion on redistribution and voting preferences: Evidence from the Panama Papers.

This paper provides empirical evidence that individuals substantially revise their stated wealth redistribution preferences after fiscal scandals. The 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealed top-income tax evasion behaviour simultaneously worldwide. The empirical investigation exploits this event as a quasi-natural experiment. I rely on two original datasets, a UK household longitudinal dataset and a survey conducted in 22 European countries. I use a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pro-redistribution statements increased between 2% and 3.3% after the scandal. Responses are heterogeneous and larger for right-wing individuals and low-income individuals. This change in wealth redistribution preferences is likely to have been translated into a slight change in votes. The results suggest an increase in stated voting intentions for the left and a decrease for the right. Complementary estimations reveal that more media coverage and more individuals involved by country increase the magnitude of the response.

The Covid-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. Our paper contributes to the literature of retrospective voting and demonstrates that voters hold leaders accountable for their (mis-)handling of negative shocks.

Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?

Over the last decade, the erosion of trust in public institutions and traditional media sources have been proceeding in parallel. As recent developments in media consumption have led to a proliferation of politically charged online misinformation, it is no wonder that many have been questioning whether the spread of fake news has affected the results of recent elections, contributing to the growth of populist party platforms. In this work, we aim to quantify this impact by focusing on the causal effect of the spread of misinformation over electoral outcomes in the 2018 Italian General elections. We exploit the presence of Italian and German linguistic groups in the Trento and Bolzano/Bozen autonomous provinces as an exogenous source of variation, assigning individuals into distinct filter bubbles each differently exposed to misinformation. To do so, we introduce a novel index based on text mining techniques to measure populism. Using this approach, we analyse the social media content of each party and their leaders over the course of the electoral campaign for the 2013 and 2018 elections. We then collect electoral and socio-demographic data from the region and, after constructing a proxy for exposition to misinformation, we measure the change in populist vote across the two groups in-between the two general elections, using a combination of difference-in-difference and two-stagesleast- squares inference methods. Our results indicate that misinformation had a negligible and non-significant effect on populist vote in Trentino and South Tyrol during the Italian 2018 general elections.

Dry mist systems and its impact on thermal comfort for the tropics

Tropical countries, like Singapore, are hot and humid throughout the year. Coupled with the Urban Heat Island effect from rapid urbanisation, Singapore has seen a long-term increase in annual average temperatures over the years. One solution is the use of misting systems that tap on the principle of latent heat of vaporisation to provide cooling. This paper specifically addresses the use of air-assisted "Dry Mist" systems, where the sprays are of ultra-fine droplet size, measured using PIV system in this study, and do not cause a wet sensation upon contact. This study has found that suitable operation conditions are during hot afternoons where Relative Humidity is lower, between 50–65%. Through both objective and subjective measurements, it was found that wind velocities above 0.58 m/s and Solar Irradiances above 571 W/m2 are the limits for operation. The subjective measurements also found majority of the participants feeling colder from the system, and despite a slight increase in skin wetness, there is also increase in wet feeling pleasantness. A statistical analysis also found that changes in Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV) is most significantly captured by changes in skin temperatures and wet feeling pleasantness vote, while changes in Thermal Comfort Vote (TCV) is most significantly captured by changes in Tmrt and Air Humidity Vote.

Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?

Over the last decade, the erosion of trust in public institutions and traditional media sources have been proceeding in parallel. As recent developments in media consumption have led to a proliferation of politically charged online misinformation, it is no wonder that many have been questioning whether the spread of fake news has affected the results of recent elections, contributing to the growth of populist party platforms. In this work, we aim to quantify this impact by focusing on the causal effect of the spread of misinformation over electoral outcomes in the 2018 Italian General elections. We exploit the presence of Italian and German linguistic groups in the Trento and Bolzano/Bozen autonomous provinces as an exogenous source of variation, assigning individuals into distinct filter bubbles each differently exposed to misinformation. To do so, we introduce a novel index based on text mining techniques to measure populism. Using this approach, we analyse the social media content of each party and their leaders over the course of the electoral campaign for the 2013 and 2018 elections. We then collect electoral and socio- demographic data from the region and, after constructing a proxy for exposition to misinformation, we measure the change in populist vote across the two groups in-between the two general elections, using a combination of difference-in-difference and two-stages-least-squares inference methods. Our results indicate that misinformation had a negligible and non-significant effect on populist vote in Trentino and South Tyrol during the Italian 2018 general elections.

Physiological and thermal response to real-life transient conditions during winter in severe cold area

Transient changes of thermal environment cause significant thermal stress in extreme climates. This study explores human physiological and thermal responses in severe cold area during winter. A questionnaire survey and a series of experiments were conducted in Harbin, a city that is situated in a part of China known for severe cold climatic conditions in some seasons. The survey was a preliminary part investigating human clothing habits during winter. Subsequent experiments were designed to reveal the effect of exposed body parts on physiological and thermal responses. When hands are exposed, symptoms appear earlier and more frequently. Hand exposure causes more local thermal sensation vote (TSV) changes, raises the TSV value corresponding to the most comfortable state, and intensifies discomfort in cold and uncomfortable environment. However, direct cooling of facial region induces effective thermoregulatory processes more easily indicated by nasal discharge, sneezing, and shivering. The overall TSV is closest to that of the coldest parts in the outdoor environment during winter. Overall thermal sensation is warmer under warm stimulation than cold stimulation at identical mean skin temperatures (MST). Dynamic thermal sensation are estimated by MST, MST change rate and temperature difference between hand and forearm, respectively. Our results confirm the importance of considering human local exposure in scientifically evaluating thermal comfort in severe cold climates, since different local exposure induces different levels of physiological and thermal response.

Evaluation of Four Models for Predicting Thermal Sensation in Chinese Residential Kitchen

Thermal environment in residential kitchen in China is transient and non-uniform and with strong radiation asymmetry from gas stove. Due to the complexity of kitchen thermal environment, it is not sure if previous thermal comfort models can accurately predict the thermal comfort in residential kitchens. In order to evaluate if existing thermal comfort models can be applied for Chinese kitchens, this investigation conducted human subject tests for 20 cooks when preparing dishes in a kitchen. The study measured skin temperatures of the cooks and environmental parameters and used questionnaires to obtain their thermal sensation votes at the same time. The actual thermal sensation votes were compared with the predicted ones by four thermal comfort models: predicted mean vote (PMV) model, dynamic thermal sensation (DTS) model, the University of California at Berkeley (UCB) model, and the transient outdoor thermal comfort model from Lai et al. The results showed that all the models could predict the trend of the thermal sensations but with errors. The PMV model overpredicted the thermal sensations. The UCB and Lai’s models showed a slower change in thermal sensation votes (TSV) after turning on the stove. The DTS model was more accurate than the others in predicting the mean thermal sensation, but with a large variation in predicting individual thermal sensation votes. A better thermal comfort model should be developed for Chinese residential kitchens.

How local personal vote-earning attributes affect the aggregate party vote share: Evidence from the Belgian flexible-list PR system (2003–2014)

This article investigates the effect of candidates exhibiting local personal vote-earning attributes (PVEA) on the aggregate party vote share at the district level. Previous research has often assumed that packing ballot lists with localized candidates increases the aggregate party vote and seat shares. We present a strict empirical test of this argument by analysing the relative electoral swing of ballot lists at the district level, a measure of change in party vote shares which controls for the national party trend and previous party results in the district. The analysis is based on data of 7527 candidacies during six Belgian regional and federal election cycles between 2003 and 2014, which is aggregated to an original data set of 223 ballot lists. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models do not show a significant effect of candidates exhibiting local PVEA on relative electoral swing of ballot lists. However, the results suggest that ballot lists do benefit electorally if candidates with local PVEA are geographically distributed over different municipalities in the district.

Independent Relationship of Changes in Death Rates with Changes in US Presidential Voting

BackgroundThe outcome of the 2016 presidential election is commonly attributed to socioeconomic and ethnic/racial issues, but health issues, including “deaths of despair,” may also have contributed.ObjectiveTo assess whether changes in age-adjusted death rates were independently associated with changes in presidential election voting in 2016 vs. 2008.DesignWe used publicly available data in each of 3112 US counties to correlate changes in a county’s presidential voting in 2016 compared with 2008 with recent changes in its age-adjusted death rate, after controlling for population and rural-urban status, median age, race/ethnicity, income, education, unemployment rate, and health insurance rate.Design SettingCross-sectional analysis of county-specific data.Setting/ParticipantsAll 3112 US counties.Main MeasuresThe independent correlation of a county’s change in age-adjusted death rate between 2000 and 2015 with its net percentage Republican gain or loss in the presidential election of 2016 vs. 2008.Key ResultsIn 2016, President Trump increased the Republican presidential vote percentage in 83.8% of counties compared with Senator McCain in 2008. Counties with an increased Republican vote percentage in 2016 vs. 2008 had a 15% higher 2015 age-adjusted death rate than counties with an increased Democratic vote percentage. Since 2000, overall death rates declined by less than half as much, and death rates from drugs, alcohol, and suicide increased 2.5 times as much in counties with Republican gains compared with counties with Democratic gains. In multivariable analyses, Republican net presidential gain in 2016 vs. 2008 was independently correlated with slower reductions in a county’s age-adjusted death rate. Although correlation cannot infer causality, modest reductions in death rates might theoretically have shifted Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to Secretary Clinton.ConclusionsLess of a reduction in age-adjusted death rates was an independent correlate of an increased Republican percentage vote in 2016 vs. 2008. Death rates may be markers of dissatisfactions and fears that influenced the 2016 Presidential election outcomes.

Early Voting Changes and Voter Turnout: North Carolina in the 2016 General Election

North Carolina offers its residents the opportunity to cast early in-person (EIP) ballots prior to Election Day, a practice known locally as “One-Stop” voting. Following a successful legal challenge to the state’s controversial 2013 Voter Information and Verification Act, North Carolina’s 100 counties were given wide discretion over the hours and locations of EIP voting for the 2016 General Election. This discretion yielded a patchwork of election practices across the state, providing us with a set of natural experiments to study the effect of changes in early voting hours on voter turnout. Drawing on individual-level voting records from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, our research design matches voters on race, party, and geography. We find little evidence that changes to early opportunities in North Carolina had uniform effects on voter turnout. Nonetheless, we do identify areas in the presidential battleground state where voters appear to have reacted to local changes in early voting availability, albeit not always in directions consistent with the existing literature. We suspect that effects of changes to early voting rules are conditional on local conditions, and future research on the effects of election law changes on turnout should explore these conditions in detail.

Political Geography of the South: A Spatial Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Election

The region identified as the "South" arguably has been and continues to be the most politically interesting and analyzed region in the United States. Using election results and county maps of the eleven southern states, this study provides a spatial analysis of the counties in this region. Through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this study analyzes the 2008 presidential election using counties as the unit of analysis within these states. This exploratory study will provide data as to which candidate won each county as well as a "landslide" county map that denotes counties that supported a candidate by a margin of twenty percent or more. This study will also investigate the difference in county-level voting between the 2004 and 2008 election to see how the preferences of the electorates changed. Finally, a contextual analysis, using data gathered from the United States Census Bureau will identify county population demographics that help explain voting behavior as well as the change in vote between 2004 and 2008.

Effects of issue and poll news on electoral volatility: conversion or crystallization?

In the last decades, electoral volatility has been on the rise in Western democracies. Scholars have proposed several explanations for this phenomenon of floating voters. Exposure to media coverage as a short-term explanation for electoral volatility has of yet been understudied. This study examines the effect of media content (issue news and poll news) on two different types of vote change: conversion, switching from one party to another, and crystallization, switching from being undecided to casting a vote for a party. We use a national panel survey (N = 765) and link this to a content analysis of campaign news on television and in newspapers during national Dutch elections. Findings reveal that exposure to issue news increases the chance of crystallization, whereas it decreases the chance of conversion. Conversely, exposure to poll news increases the chance of conversion, whereas it decreases the chance of crystallization.

Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making

This paper uses data from the Gothenburg District Court in Sweden and a research design that exploits the random assignment of politically appointed jurors (termed nämndemän) to make three contributions to the literature on jury decision-making: (i) an assessment of whether systematic biases exist in the Swedish nämndemän system, (ii) causal evidence on the impact of juror political party on verdicts, and (iii) an empirical examination of the role of peer effects in jury decision-making. The results reveal a number of systematic biases: convictions for young defendants and those with distinctly Arabic names increase substantially when they are randomly assigned jurors from the far-right (nationalist) Swedish Democrat party, whereas convictions in cases with a female victim increase markedly when they are assigned jurors from the far-left (feminist) Vänster party. An analysis of peer effects implies that jurors from the far-left and far-right parties influence the votes of nämndemän from centrist parties in a way that is consistent with their respective party platforms. This analysis also suggests that at least some of these peer effects result in genuine changes of opinions (affecting trial outcomes), rather than vote changes motivated solely to reach unanimous decisions.