Changes In Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Differential Economic Impacts of Chinese and American Trade Policies on Developed Versus Developing Nations

The trade conflict between the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, has considerable implications for global economic stability and growth. This topic has been selected due to the necessity of understanding how these trade disputes impact other countries, particularly those heavily dependent on exporting goods to these major economies. The analysis aims to investigate the varied effects of the trade war on both industrialized and developing nations. An analysis is conducted to examine the differential effects of the trade war on industrialized and developing nations by studying the changes in GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and balance of trade trends. This study examines the distinct economic effects of the China-US trade war on Germany, Canada, and Mexico, which serve as representative examples of developed and developing nations. The results emphasize the significance of customized policy measures to tackle the distinct difficulties and prospects encountered by various economies. Developed countries should prioritize efforts to reduce sluggish economic development and address unemployment in specific sectors. On the other hand, developing nations should take advantage of trade diversion benefits and strengthen their economic resilience. This study enhances the awareness of global trade dynamics and offers vital perspectives for policymakers seeking to negotiate the intricacies of international trade wars.

ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND HUMAN CAPITAL : EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING THREE STAGE LEAST SQUARE IN INDONESIA

The pace of globalization is increasing rapidly and dynamically as time goes by. Indonesia, located takes advantage of globalization to encourage economic growth. However, over the last decade, from 2000 to 2019, Indonesia's economic globalization index has tended to decline along with the increase in the global economic globalization index. Indonesia's economic growth has been relatively stagnant. Human capital, as the primary input in Indonesia's economic system, is suspected to be suboptimal. In the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) for 2020-2024, economic growth and human capital are the main focus in achieving national prosperity. Human capital in this study uses health indicators as a proxy for assessing productivity and educational investment approaches. Data is transformed to meet the stationarity requirements of time series data. The study employs the Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) simultaneous equation method to examine total and direct effects. The estimation results show that changes in globalization growth are directly influenced by changes in economic growth, exchange rate growth, and inflation. Changes in economic growth are directly influenced by changes in exchange rate growth, globalization index growth, and inflation. Human capital is directly influenced by changes in globalization index growth, changes in economic growth, inflation, previous-year inflation, and changes in unemployment rates

Employment creator or disrupter? Novel evidence for German import energy

ABSTRACT This paper uses the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test to investigate the relationship between energy import price (EIP) and unemployment rate (UR) in Germany. The finding reveals positive and negative influences of EIP on UR. The positive impact implies that the unexpected rise in EIP could strike the German employment market, which is supported by the real business cycle theory. However, this view cannot be confirmed by the negative influences owing to various reasons, including the fiscal and monetary policies adopted by the government to stimulate the economy. In addition, the influence of UR on EIP indicates that the change of UR is a vital indicator to forecast the EIP. Therefore, our findings prove the existence of a mutual connection between import energy and the domestic labor market. Since the German economy relies heavily on imported energy and resource-intensive industries, the detailed understanding derived from the relationship between EIP and UR will help policymakers optimize the domestic labor market and forecast the energy cost.

Analyzing the Impact: The Role of MSME Growth in Reducing Unemployment Amidst High Levels of Poverty

This study employs a quantitative research method to examine the impact of the number of MSMEs and poverty rates on unemployment rates in Indonesia from 2011 to 2022, utilizing data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS Indonesia) and Bank Indonesia. The analysis reveals a significant relationship between the increase in MSMEs, poverty index fluctuations, and unemployment rate changes during this period. The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between the growth of MSMEs and a reduction in unemployment, whereas the relationship between poverty levels and unemployment rates is weak. This suggests that the expansion of MSMEs is an effective strategy for reducing unemployment and improving economic conditions. The study aims to enhance understanding of the factors influencing unemployment and the challenges policymakers face, providing valuable insights for efforts to combat unemployment. Additionally, the dataset used may benefit other studies addressing unemployment issues in Indonesia and similar regions. The results confirm the crucial role of MSME development in lowering unemployment rates, highlighting its potential as a viable policy approach for economic improvement.

Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss

SummaryWe collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices (“WARN layoffs”) leads state‐level initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rate (UR) and private employment changes. WARN layoffs comove with aggregate layoffs from Mass Layoff Statistics and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey but are timelier and cover a longer sample. In a vector autoregression, changes in WARN layoffs lead UR changes and job separations. Finally, they improve pseudo real‐time forecasts of the UR and private employment changes.

How Real Interest Rate Influences Real GDP, CPI and Unemployment Rate in EU countries

The article aims to use linear regression model to analyze quantitative correlation of real interest rate and three economic indices, namely real GDP, CPI and unemployment rate based on data of France, Germany and Italy. When the government tries to control the economic condition by adjusting interest rate, a clear quantitative correlation between interest rate and some important economic indices can make the consequence more controllable. A research based on real data can also help avoid mistake due to inconsistency between theoretical model and real life. As a result, the final model reveals that real GDP is negatively correlated with real interest rate, while CPI and unemployment rate are both positively correlated with real interest rate in short term, which is opposite to the initial expectation of CPI and unemployment rate. Such consequence may suggest the government to consider the possible opposite result in short term when they try to adjust the price level by altering real interest rate, as well as the unexpected change in unemployment rate.

Digital transformation and the relationship with economic growth

bject: The main purpose of this article is to identify and assess the impact of digital transformation indicators on economic growth in Kazakhstan. Methods: For this study, we used methods of statistical multiple correlation and regression analysis based on the software package “Data Analysis” offered by MS Excel. We used data from the official website of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the RK at stat.gov.kz. Findings: The primary selection of statistical indicators was carried out and a group of factors (and corresponding indicators) was determined hypothetically influencing economic growth for the period 2007-2020. There are 14 factors that have a significant impact on gross value added. Based on the selection of the most significant factors, a regression equation is constructed that demonstrates the degree of influence on the resulting GVA. The obtained regression model was evaluated. The found regression equation is significant according to the Fisher criterion, all its parameters, including the free term, are significant according to the Student's criterion with a maximum error of 0.07. The multiple correlation coefficient is 0.99. The obtained results can be useful in planning GDP and GVA, both at the regional and national level. Conclusions: In the system of gross value added indicators, an important place is occupied by the indicators of the number of organizations using the Internet, the unemployment rate and computer literacy of the population. The analysis demonstrates a strong relationship between these indicators. As a result, we saw that the relationship between these indicators can be explained by a linear equation with an average accuracy of 97%. At the same time, for a more adequate analysis of the situation, it is also necessary to take into account the inverse relationship between changes in unemployment rates in the Republic of Kazakhstan and added gross value. The negative correlation between these indicators confirms the vulnerability and instability of the economy from changes in the unemployment rate.

The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland

While unemployment benefits constitute a significant share of welfare transfers in developed countries, the computable general equilibrium (CGE) literature ignores the impact of unemployment rate changes on these transfers. This paper investigates the impacts of alternative welfare transfer determination rules by using a dynamic CGE model for Ireland. We find that indexing the nominal welfare transfer budget to the consumer price index (CPI) and the aggregate unemployment rate is superior to the CPI alone. Although both specifications generate similar macroeconomic outcomes, our novel specification improves household welfare as well as income distribution across households. We argue that it is more in line with the behaviour of governments and that the literature ignores the progressivity elements embedded in the welfare system, which will reduce the welfare cost of carbon taxation. The results can be generalised in analysing the impacts of tax reform in countries where unemployment benefits are essential elements of welfare transfers.

Does growth of Gross State Domestic Product can manage unemployment in India? A State-level Analysis

Unemployment and Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is a complex and critical aspect of economic research, with a particular focus on the impact of GSDP on unemployment from 2017 to 2022. In summary, this research paper examines the intricate interplay between these two variables, aiming to understand how changes in GSDP impact unemployment rates in different states of India and growth of the said variables. Growth rate of the variables has been calculated using year over year growth rate (YOY), compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and relationship between the variables find out using correlation and Granger causality test. It investigates the potential causal links, cyclical patterns, and policy implications, shedding light on the dynamic nature of employment and economic growth at the state level. The findings of the study suggest that growth of the variables are fluctuative in nature and there is a negative relationship between GSDP and unemployment rate in the states as well as there is a existence of unidirectional or bidirectional causality.

Association between Socioeconomic Factors and the Risk of Gastric Cancer Incidence: Results from an Ecological Study.

Gastric cancer (GC), one of the most common cancer worldwide, remains the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality. The etiology of GC may arise from genetic and environmental factors. This study aimed to determine the association between GC incidence and socioeconomic status in Iran. An ecological study was designed to investigate the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the risk of GC incidence. The data of socioeconomic variables such as income changes, unemployment rate, urbanization ratio, inflation rate, and air pollution changes in 31 provinces were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran, and the data of GC of 31 provinces were provided from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR). Data from 2014 to 2017 was analyzed using panel data analysis, the fixed effects model by EViews software. Panel data model was suitable for the present study. Results showed that there was a positive and significant relationship between GC incidence and socioeconomic factors including income changes (P≤ 0.001), unemployment rate (P≤0.01), inflation rate (P≤ 0.05), and air pollution changes (P≤ 0.001). The urbanization ratio showed a negative relationship and was not statistically associated with GC incidence (P> 0.05). Our findings suggest a positive and significant association between socioeconomic status and GC incidence, proposing a GC risk factor. The key public health policies and welfare policies' priority should therefore be to schedule for the GC management.

Does employment protection legislation affect employment and unemployment?

The article analyses the impact of employment protection legislation (EPL) on labour market outcomes. Despite widespread reforms that have reduced employment protection, the evidence on the effects of such reforms is inconclusive. Using data from sixteen European countries over the period 1985–2019, we analyse the impact of EPL on the dynamics of employment, employees and unemployment rates. In contrast to existing studies, we analyse both the existence of a linear relationship between EPL and labour market outcomes and the existence of a non-linear relationship, as well as interaction effects between EPL and economic growth. Our results show that employment protection does not explain the changes in employment, employees and unemployment rates. Therefore, labour reforms that have reduced employment protection by reducing dismissal costs and facilitating the use of temporary contracts have not had the presumed positive effects on employment and unemployment rates.

About The Unemployment Economic Welfare Strategy Based On The Economic Crisis Under The Pandemic

With the development of the world economy, people's quality of life has improved. The economic welfare of various countries is also constantly improving. Economic welfare can not only help unemployed residents to alleviate their living difficulties and solve the basic survival problems of residents, but also help enterprises in difficulty to relieve the economic pressure. For countries under the pandemic, economic growth is slow or even negative. Many countries have severe inflation. Higher inflation leads workers to demand higher wages, and producers can only make profits by laying off workers or raising prices. This leads to the increase of many residents without living pressure, the number of poverty and unemployment greatly increased. It is economic welfare that can alleviate such problems, as will be mentioned in this article if economic welfare policies are implemented more rationally. We will start by analyzing the changes in economic growth and unemployment rates in different countries under the pandemic. There will also be a focus on economic welfare practices in relation to countries with different economic growth rates and their unemployment rates

Education, innovations and development of local markets in CEE countries: problems and perspectives

This paper presents brief results of the analysis of educational potential dynamics and its relation with development of regional labour markets. The educational potential is described by the structure of the economically active population with different levels of education. The aim of the research was to study the impact of the educational potential of the economically active population on the development of regional markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Authors used for research the Eurostat data for the NUTS2 regions of the following CEE countries: Austria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Analysis of the distribution of educational potential of the economically active population of these CEE countries at the regional level was carried out using the methods of spatial econometrics and statistics. Research results demonstrated: insufficient response of local markets to changes in the structure of educational potential and the level of investment in fixed assets; strong state regulation of the unemployment rate in the former post-socialist countries (Czechia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia); complex relationships between labour productivity growth rates, average wages, changes in educational potential and unemployment rates; significant influence of the surrounding regional environment on the socio-economic processes taking place in certain regions.

Impact of corporate social responsibility activities related to the costs of employee training and qualification development on changes in unemployment rate in eu countries

Impact of corporate social responsibility activities related to the costs of employee training and qualification development on changes in unemployment rate in eu countries

Préparation estimée et vulnérabilité des pays face à la pandémie de COVID-19: Elaboration et approbation de l'Index global

La pandémie de COVID-19 et ses conséquences socio-économiques ont provoqué une augmentation notable du rôle de l'estimation de la préparation et la vulnérabilité des pays. Cela s'ajoute aux investigations existantes dans le cadre des ont internationales et des classements multidimensionnels, et présente des résultats d'évaluation complexe au niveau national de la préparation et la vulnérabilité face à la pandémie, à partir des index multidimensionnels proposés par les auteurs. L'objectif de cette recherche était d'estimer le niveau de préparation national et la vulnérabilité d'un point de vue complexe. Un index multidimensionnel global a été calculé et utilisé pour donner un classement des pays à partir de cette méthodologie. L'index a permis aux auteurs de conclure qu'il y a une différence importante dans le niveau de préparation face à une pandémie et une disproportion entre certains éléments du système pour chaque pays. L'analyse des données, les sources et les rapports ont souligné le besoin d'étendre la liste des indicateurs pour évaluer le niveau de vulnérabilité. L'opportunité d'utiliser cet index est prouvée par l'analyse corrélative statistique entre les sous-index et le niveau de morbidité et mortalité due au COVID-19. L'index est utilisé pour former des groupes multidimensionnels et le partitionnement de données permet d'estimer les conséquences économiques de la pandémie. Les résultats du partitionnement de données ont permis de former quatre groupes de pays : (1) très vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (2) vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (3) vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation ; (4) peu vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation. L'analyse comparative des conséquences économiques (changement annuel PIB en 2020-2019 par rapport à PIB en 2019-2017), taux de chômage et changement de l'inflation ont montré des disproportions de l'influence de la pandémie par groupes de pays.

Unemployment Rate Convergence in the Case of Turkey: A Regional Analysis within the Scope of Dollarization and Real Wage

The unemployment rate is a fundamental variable in the socioeconomic comparison between regions. Hence, it is included in the focus of regional economic policies. Regional policy sets are frequently used to eliminate regional unemployment differences. This situation raises discussions about the efficiency of the employment policies and questions whether regional unemployment rates tend to converge to national averages. Especially in economies with regional development differences and the labor market does not exhibit a homogeneous structure, the regional analysis of unemployment rates is becoming more critical. This paper analyses the convergence of unemployment rates with the panel data set, which includes 26 regions of Turkey and the period 2004-2020. It is investigated if regional macroeconomic interactions in Turkey make the labor market homogeneous. Besides, the effects of dollarization and real wage on the unemployment rate change are questioned. The study's findings indicate the presence of deterministic and stochastic β convergence. According to the unconditional and conditional β convergence analysis, the change in the unemployment rate depends on the initial value of the unemployment rate. The findings also show that if dollarization and real wage growth increase, unemployment rate growth also increases. σ convergence analysis also confirms the presence of unemployment rate convergence.

IS THERE A CONNECTION BETWEEN GHANA'S INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES? AN EVIDENCE FROM PHILLIPS CURVE REPRESENTATION USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Purpose: The study provides answers to queries about how Ghana's unemployment rate is affected by inflation as well as effective strategies Ghana's government can use to address challenges in the current economy Methodology: In order to forecast future results, this study examined the changes in Ghana's unemployment and inflation rates between 1991 and 2021. Annual time series statistics for these attributes were compiled using data from secondary sources Findings: The Phillips curve shows how the unemployment and inflation rates are related. The ADF test revealed stationary inflation and unemployment rates at the initial variation, while the Johansen cointegration test revealed a single cointegrating equation at a 10 level of significance. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model at lag 3, the short- and long-term interactions between Ghana's inflation and unemployment rates were investigated. Practical Implications: The findings indicate that Ghana's unemployment rate and inflation rate have a long-term positive association, which defies the Phillips curve. The estimate of 0. 2035 for the Equilibrium Error Correction Coefficient (ECM) is significant and has the appropriate sign. This means that after a shock, everything will quickly return to normal. Originality/value: The research analysis significantly adds to the body of knowledge on Ghana's projected future returns between inflation and unemployment rates. An economy depending on the nation's unemployment problems and the current state of the economy. The outcome demonstrated a long-term, positive link relating to rates of unemployment and price increases. As a result, the government should create an economic plan to permanently reduce the rate of unemployment and inflation. Keywords: Phillips Curve; Stationary; Cointegration; Inflation; Unemployment; Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Paper type: Research paper

Examining SNAP and TANF caseload trends, responsiveness, and policies during the COVID‐19 pandemic

AbstractTemporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cases increased by 3.3 million between March and June 2020, their largest quarterly increase ever. During the pandemic, many states adopted a wide set of policies and procedures to facilitate program enrollment, retention, and eligibility. I track these policies and create a pandemic policy index measuring state generosity. States that adopted more generous policies experienced larger TANF and SNAP caseload growth, especially eligibility policies such as exempting TANF work requirements or SNAP P‐EBT availability. Analyzing the caseload relationship to labor markets, caseloads were less responsive to unemployment rate changes during the pandemic relative to the pre‐pandemic period.

A Case Study of the Crime Rate in Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong

A series of studies have explored the relationship between crime rates and socioeconomic factors. Few researchers, however, have made an empirical analysis of the crime rate in China over the past 30 years. In terms of the data spanning 30 years involving five probable factors: Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, employment rate, divorce rate and educational rate, I find that the change in crime rates is mainly correlated with the change in education level and unemployment rate in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. But the growth of the gross domestic product, which is a macroeconomic indicator, may not be as important as one might think in the change in crime rate. In particular, I also look at the impact of major events on crime rates -- the return of Hong Kong and the promulgation of the Criminal Law Amendment in 1997 and found that the Criminal Law Amendment had a positive impact on the crime rate in the Chinese mainland. This paper conducts an empirical modelling analysis of panel data from 1990 to 2020 in Chines mainland and Hong Kong from different social systems, measures the impact of different factors on the crime rate, and tries to find the most effective way to reduce the crime rate for China. Through the analysis, it can be found that in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, the most effective way to reduce the crime rate is not to develop the economy but to improve the overall level of education.

Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19.

There were almost 700,000 excess deaths in the US from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, resulting from two often counterbalancing mechanisms: those predicted by changes in unemployment rates occurring during this period, referred to here as the "recession effect," and those predicted by the "pandemic effect," which reflects direct consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19, accompanying impacts on health and medical care, and other changes in mortality not caused by greater joblessness. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study decomposed total mortality in this period into pandemic and recession effects, with additional estimates by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and fourteen causes. Although the pandemic effect increased many types of mortality, the recession effect reduced most types of mortality. Without the recession effect, there would have been nearly 40,000 more deaths than actually occurred. However, there were disparate impacts, particularly for external causes. Vehicular and alcohol-related fatalities and homicides rose because of strong pandemic effects. In contrast, the recession effect accounted for a greater share of the rise in drug mortality. Offsetting pandemic and recession effects resulted in a decrease in the number of suicides. Understanding these diverse impacts provides useful lessons for policy efforts to mitigate the current and future health pandemics.