Changes In Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Fast Rises, Slow Declines: Asymmetric Unemployment Dynamics with Matching Frictions

AbstractI argue that the textbook search‐and‐matching model cannot generate the observed cyclical asymmetry in the unemployment rate. In the United States, the unemployment rate rises quickly and abruptly at the onset of recessions and declines slowly and gradually during expansions. This pattern produces positive skewness in the distribution of unemployment rate changes, while the model generates a counterfactually negative skewness. Moreover, I show that the model's inability to replicate the cyclical asymmetry in the data stands regardless of its ability to generate realistic volatility in unemployment rate fluctuations.

Economic Hardship and Violence: A Comparison of County-Level Economic Measures in the Prediction of Violence-Related Injury.

Economic hardship may lead to a wide range of negative outcomes, including violence. However, existing literature on economic hardship and violence is limited by reliance on official reports of violence and conflation of different measures of economic hardship. The goals of this study are to measure how violence-related injuries are associated with five measures of county-level economic shocks: unemployment rate, male mass layoffs, female mass layoffs, foreclosure rate, and unemployment rate change, measured cross-sectionally and by a 1-year lag. This study measures three subtypes of violence outcomes (child abuse, elder abuse, and intimate partner violence). Yearly county-level data were obtained on violence-related injuries and economic measures from 2005 to 2012 for all 87 counties in Minnesota. Negative binomial models were run regressing the case counts of each violence outcome at the county-year level on each economic indicator modeled individually, with population denominator offsets to yield incidence rate ratios. Crude models were run first, then county-level socio-demographic variables and year were added to each model, and finally fully-adjusted models were run including all socio-demographic variables plus all economic indicators simultaneously. In the fully-adjusted models, a county's higher foreclosure rate is the strongest and most consistently associated with an increase in all violence subtypes. Unemployment rate is the second strongest and most consistent economic risk factor for all violence subtypes. Lastly, there appears to be an impact of gender specific to economic impacts on child abuse; specifically, male mass-lay-offs were associated with increased rates while female mass-lay-offs were associated with decreased rates. Understanding the associations of different types of economic hardship with a range of violence outcomes can aid in developing more holistic prevention and intervention efforts.

The importance for tuberculosis of mitigating economic crises

The importance for tuberculosis of mitigating economic crises

Rates of self-reported postpartum depressive symptoms in the United States before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundThis study aimed to determine the relationship between the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in postpartum depressive symptoms (PDS) in individuals in the United States. Further analyses explored how these changes related to state-level measures of pandemic severity, economic hardship, and social isolation. MethodsData were collected from users of the Flo mobile health application who completed a survey about their mood within 90 days of giving birth. Analyses assessed changes in national and state-level self-reported PDS from a pre-pandemic period (N = 159,478) to a pandemic period (N = 118,622). Linear regression determined which state-level pandemic severity or economic factors were associated with changes in PDS. ResultsNational rates of PDS increased from 6.5% (pre-pandemic) to 6.9% (pandemic). There was a significant increase in PDS over the course of the pandemic timeframe. Linear regressions revealed a negative association between percent change in PDS across states and COVID-19 deaths per 100 K residents as well as 2020 women's unemployment rate. There was no association between change in PDS and COVID-19 cases per 100 K residents, percent job loss, percent change in women's unemployment rate, or percentage of population staying at home. ConclusionsThere was a national increase in PDS that worsened over the course of a year following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. States with a greater increase in PDS tended to show overall fewer deaths from COVID-19 and lower women's unemployment rates. Further work is needed to identify what individual-level factors may be driving these differences.

Labor Migration and the Future Work in India

This paper aims to have a deep study related to Labor Migration in India. This paper covers all the aspects which give rise to Labor migration in India. The Impact of Pandemic Covid 19 on Labor migration and the Migration of Labor across Rural areas and urban areas has been elaborated on. Under the Methodology, the Net migration rate and its growth rate in India have been evaluated and analyzed. The Unemployment rate and annual change in India have also been analyzed and computed, and the Pandemic impact on Unemployment has also been represented. The reason for representing the unemployment rate is that only labor migrates across rural areas and urban areas due to unemployment. In the case of Net Migration rate, it has been found that The growth rate is dropping year by year; for example, in 2018, India's net migration rate was -0.396 per 1000 people, with a -0.383 migration decrease in 2019 due to COVID-19 epidemic has resulted in a significant decrease in migration and growth rates. In the case of the Unemployment rate, in 2020, there will be a significant change in the unemployment rate. Before COVID, the unemployment rate dropped, but a fundamental change occurred. The unemployment rate in 2019 was 5.27 percent per 1000 population, an increase of 1.84 percent over the previous year. The strategies related to Employment, social protection, and health can be implemented to manage the future of Labor migration better.

Economic Downturn, Change in Unemployment, and the Midwest: A Quantile Regression Approach

Although every area of the U.S. was hit by the Great Recession, the change in unemployment rates varied widely across locations. We use a quantile regression approach to examine the tails of the distribution of change in unemployment rates between 2006 and 2009 across all counties in the Midwest. We find consistent evidence that manufacturing was the largest contributor to the change in unemployment across the three conditional distributions examined, with the impact increasing as we move from the 25th quantile to the mean (OLS) and 75th quantile. Likewise, local labor mobility has amplifying effects on the change in unemployment rates, while educational attainment has a moderating effect. Our results suggest that human capital and location-and industry-targeted policies are important in promoting recession-resilient local economies.

Моделирование влияния цифровых технологий на уровень безработицы в России

The paper examines labor market patterns in the light of digital economy development. The aim is to analyze labor market conjuncture in terms of registered unemployment dynamics. The degree of digital economy development is assessed through three indicators: the share of organizations using (1) the Internet, (2) local area networks, (3) number of personal computers per 100 employees. In addition to technological development indicators, the article also makes account of certain demographic factors. Since early 2000s, the degree of Internet penetration in organizations has doubled, while the number of computers increased threefold. The share of elderly population and life expectancy rate have increased by 5 percent and 7 years respectively. Drawing on econometric panel data models regarding federal districts in Russia for 2003–2019, the author provides the following findings. First, the proliferation of technological advances reduces unemployment rate. Second, an increase in the proportion of population above working age and life expectancy entails the reduction in unemployment rate. Third, combined effect of technological and demographic factors increases unemployment rate. The magnitude of the reduction exceeds the degree of increase in the unemployment rate due to technological advances. Thus, technological unemployment is more likely a theoretical possibility. Fourth, the determinants taken into consideration explain from 38 to 43 percent of unemployment rate change. The proposed approach can be applied in designing regulatory policies regarding employment with regard to the implementation of digital technologies in organizations and population aging in Russia’s regions.

The Global Crisis of 2008 and Investigation of the Reaction of Other Macroeconomic Factors to A Shock on the Unemployment Factor of the Countries: An Application Developed and Developing Countries

All countries of the world were affected by the global mortgage crisis that took place in 2008. It is referred to as the new generation financial crisis type. Underdeveloped countries were more affected by the crises experienced in the past, whereas the 2008 crisis affected the developed economies more deeply. 31 countries were selected in this study. In the study, 18 developed countries and 13 developing countries were included. The changes in unemployment rates of countries in the post-crisis period are discussed. Then, it is aimed to investigate the reactions of other macroeconomic factors to a shock in the unemployment factor of countries with VAR analysis.

Influence of UTCP on the employment of female workers and the supply of labor force.

In recent years, China has introduced the Universal Two-Child Policy (UTCP), which means that a couple can have two children. The implementation of this policy may affect female employment. Based on this background, this work aims to the impact of UTCP on the number and employment of Chinese women workers, and find out the countermeasures for the adverse impact of the policy. Firstly, the role of the Propensity Score Matching-Differences in Differences model is introduced, and the average and dynamic effects of UTCP on women’s employment are discussed by using the Propensity Score Matching model. Secondly, the survey data on issues related to female employment after the implementation of UTCP from 2016 to 2020 is analyzed. Finally, a conclusion is drawn according to the survey data. The results demonstrate that the implementation of UTCP widens the income gap between men and women. Meanwhile, the younger the couple, the greater the income gap. Besides, the unemployment rate changes slightly after the introduction of the policy. As the growth rate of female income is significantly lower than that of men of the same age, UTCP has little impact on the employment of Chinese female workers, but has a great impact on the quality of employment. Among all the respondents, the proportion of employed men is higher than employed women, which is about 64% ~ 65%. However, it is still unknown whether age, education, family characteristics, nationality, occupations, and economic development of the province have a certain impact on female income, which is worth noting by follow-up research. On the whole, the full liberalization of the second child has little impact on the employment of female workers in China, but has a great impact on the quality of employment. The present work lays a foundation for the study of the impact of UTCT on female employment in future, and offers a certain reference for the further study of the impact of the policy on employment in the future.

Regional borders, local unemployment, and life satisfaction

AbstractIn this paper, we provide novel evidence on the effect of local unemployment rate on life satisfaction. With this, we contribute to the expanding literature that aims to understand the role of the local labor market's conditions for individual well‐being. This information can be used to only analyze the impact of regional economic policies, as well as to understand individuals' behavior and reactions to policy changes. In concrete, we investigate how changes in local unemployment rate affect subjective well‐being in Germany, allowing for the presence of spatial spillovers and considering the role played by regional borders. The results indicate that higher unemployment in the own local area of residence has a negative effect on satisfaction. Similarly, individuals' happiness negatively correlates with the unemployment rate in contiguous local areas, but only if these areas are located in the same Federal State as the one where the individual lives. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these negative effects of local unemployment rate are larger for individuals with stronger ties to the job market and less secure jobs.

Changes in Unemployment Affect Sickness Absence and Disability Retirement Rates: A Municipality-Level Panel Study.

To enhance understanding of the interplay between unemployment and sickness absence and disability retirement, the aim of this study was to examine how changes in area-level unemployment rates are associated with changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates in a longitudinal setting. Municipality-level time-series data were collected on unemployment, sickness absence, disability retirement and covariates from databases for Finnish municipalities for years 2003–2017 (n = 4425 municipality–year observations). Fixed effects panel regression models were used to analyse how changes in unemployment rates predict changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates when comparing consecutive years. The results showed that when examining yearly cross-sections, a higher level of unemployment in the municipality was associated with higher sickness absence and disability retirement rates. However, longitudinal assessment of consecutive years with panel regression models showed that a one percentage point increase in the municipality-level unemployment rate was associated with a decrease both in the sickness absence rate (−1.3%, p < 0.001) and in the disability retirement rate (−2.1%, p = 0.011), adjusted for simultaneous changes in demographic and socio-economic covariates, morbidity and economic situation of the municipality. The results indicate that unemployment and disability benefits partly act as substitutes for each other. Unemployment and disability rates should be assessed together to reach a more complete understanding of the level of non-employment overall and in different areas.

تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر وأثره على البطالة في العراق للمدة (2004-2017) دراسة تحليلية باستخدام التكامل المشترك المتزامن

This research aims to show the impact of foreign investment inflows into Iraq on changes in unemployment after 2004, in light of the emergence of ideas of globalization in various aspects and the convergence of distances between countries due to the development of knowledge and scientific means of communication and by the policies of economic liberalization and international trade. A long - term equilibrium relationship between foreign investment flows and unemployment, and that changes in unemployment rates explain the change in FDI flows.

Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions

Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions.

Are they willing to participate? A review on behavioral economics approach to voters turnout

This article investigates the fundamental factors influencing the rate and manner of Electoral participation with an economic model-based approach. In this study, the structural parameters affecting people's decision making are divided into two categories. The first category includes general topics such as economic and livelihood status, cultural factors and, also, psychological variables. In this section, given that voters are analyzed within the context of consumer behavior theory, inflation and unemployment are considered as the most important economic factors. The second group of factors focuses more on the type of voting, with emphasis on government performance. Since the incumbent government and its supportive voters are in a game with two Nash equilibrium, and also because the voters in most cases are retrospect, the government seeks to keep its position by a deliberate change in economic factors, especially inflation and unemployment rates. Finally, to better understand the issue, a hypothetical example is presented and analyzed in a developing country in the form of a state-owned populist employment plan. Keywords. Voters turnout, Behavioral economics, Bandwagon effect, Economic voters, Hyperbolic memory discount. JEL. A13, C70, D11.

State Variation in TANF Expenditures: Implications for Social Work and Social Policy.

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program is a federal block grant to the states, with a required state contribution. Although often viewed as a cash assistance program with work requirements and services targeted at extremely low-income families with children, only about one-quarter of all state and federal TANF funds are now used for traditional cash aid. Uses of funds vary widely by state, and alternatives range from refundable tax credits to support of state child welfare systems. In this article, the author examines the relationship between state categorical TANF spending and key social, political, and economic characteristics using data from 2015 to 2017 and multilevel linear models. Racial and ethnic demographics of the cash assistance caseload are associated with differences in spending, with states with larger proportions of the caseload composed of people of color devoting a lower percentage of effort to traditional benefits and more to alternative cash transfers. Changes in unemployment rate within states are associated with greater spending on basic assistance and reduced spending on alternative transfers. These findings indicate that, although TANF cash benefits spending may be economically responsive within the program's overall flexible structure, spending patterns raise issues of equity for disadvantaged families.

Does the macroeconomy matter to market volatility? Evidence from US industries

The paper employs a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and US stock market volatility at the industry level, with three main findings. First, some macroeconomic factors, such as the term spread, the housing starts, the National Activity Index, the change in unemployment rate, and the default rate, have noticeable effects on industry volatility. Second, out-of-sample test results show that the GARCH-MIDAS model with macroeconomic series helps improve forecasting performance mainly in the consumer staples sector, but its performance is comparable to that of the GJR-GARCH(1,1) model in other sectors. Finally, on average, the term spread contributes the most to fluctuations during expansions, whereas the default rate assumes the most significant role during recessions. As for quantitative easing, although it seems to reduce the scale of stock volatility and to cause the volatilities across sectors associated with macroeconomic series to reach the values observed in expansions, the volatility attributed to the default rate is approaching its average level in recession periods.

Unemployment and intimate partner violence: A Cultural approach

This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and intimate partner violence (IPV). I argue that local social predominance of different family structures (stem vs nuclear) in the past shaped distinct present cultural norms regarding the appropriate role of men and women, and that as a result IPV responds differently to changes in relative unemployment rates of men vs women. Coresidence of younger couples with in-laws in stem families in the past reduced the burden of household work, allowing a higher contribution of the younger wife to nondomestic work. In nuclear families, conversely, wives’ activities were more confined to the domestic sphere. I construct an exogenous measure of unemployment and find heterogeneous impacts: for individuals living in territories with a nuclear-family tradition, a decrease in female unemployment relative to male unemployment increases IPV, potentially because men feel their traditional breadwinner role threatened. These effects are offset for individuals living in provinces where the stem family was socially predominant in the past. I discuss different potential mechanisms for these results and propose a new gender-identity explanation for IPV in which violence is a way to reinstate the loss of utility generated by what men from certain social context perceive as a menace.

Trade Layoffs and Hate in the United States

ObjectiveRecent events (e.g., Brexit) have highlighted how globalization may foster hostility toward out‐groups in developed democracies. Is trade competition systematically related to hate in the United States?MethodsI conduct a county‐level statistical analysis using data from the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, the FBI's Hate Crime Statistics database, and the Southern Poverty Law Center's hate group map over the period of 2003–2017.ResultsCounties with more trade‐related layoffs tend to have more hate groups, though not hate crimes, even after accounting for changes in unemployment rates. The relationship between trade layoffs and hate groups is strongest in counties that have recently experienced larger decreases in the share of the white population.ConclusionsAlthough existing studies on diffuse economic vulnerability and hate find a weak connection between economic factors and hate, trade layoffs can explain some variation in local hate group activity.

Effectiveness of Augmented Dollar-Cost Averaging

Dollar-Cost Averaging investment strategy has been widely criticized by academics for decades. This article proposes an Augmented Dollar-Cost Averaging (ADCA) strategy that conditions investment strategy to the prevailing market environment. The ADCA investment strategy is more aggressive if the economy is expanding and more conservative if the economy is contracting. Changes in market volatility, unemployment rate and capacity utilization were used to determine whether the economy was expanding or contracting. Using the Sharpe ratio, coupled with first-order and second-order stochastic dominance criteria, this study shows the risk-reducing benefits of ADCA in the U.S. stock market between 1967 and 2018.

The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries over 439 months between 1985 and 2021 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals’ fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and their own household financial situation. Fear of unemployment predicts subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. Individuals’ perceptions of the economic situation in the country and their own household finances also predict unemployment 12 months later. Business sentiment (industry fear of unemployment) is also predictive of unemployment 12 months later. The findings underscore the importance of the “economics of walking about”. The implication is that these social survey data are informative in predicting economic downturns and should be used more extensively in forecasting. We also generate a 29 country-level annual panel on life satisfaction from 1985-2020 from the World Database of Happiness and show that the consumer level fear of unemployment variable lowers well-being over and above the negative impact of the unemployment rate itself. Qualitative survey metrics were able to predict the Great Recession and the economic slowdown in Europe just prior to the COVID19 pandemic.