Rural Land Use Change Research Articles

Assessment of future scenarios of climate and land-use changes in the IMPRINTS test-bed areas

Abstract The main objective of this work is to identify and evaluate the potential impacts produced by climate and land-use changes in six European test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d’Anduze, Linth, Verzasca and Sambuco). Data to build future scenarios that can modify the different basins’ flash flood and debris flow risk level has been analyzed in this paper. High resolution climate scenarios have been obtained from several European projects and/or National initiatives, depending on each case. Climatic variables have been widely analyzed, with a special focus on extreme precipitation. Typical generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions have been fitted to observed and projected rainfall data to assess impacts in the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall up to 2100. Regarding climate, the main conclusion is the importance of using data at the maximum spatial and temporal resolution applying downscaling methodologies adapted to basin scale (test-bed areas ranging from approx 200 to 5000 km 2 ) and oriented to obtain extreme rainfall values. In general, high variability has been detected, obtaining very different results for the different models and scenarios. Data corrections may lead to better representations of present situations and, therefore, more reliable future projections, but currently some of them are not suitable for extreme precipitation assessment. Regarding land-use changes, a cellular automata-based model has been used (MOLAND) to simulate the 2000–2040 period taking the CORINE land-use dataset as input data. Llobregat, Guadalhorce and Gardon d’Anduze basins have been identified as potentially interesting for simulating urban land-use dynamics due to the existence of important urban areas within their limits. The assessment of the rural land-use changes has been carried out using the results from the EURURALIS project (2000–2030 period), available for all the basins. The results of this paper are framed in the FP7 project IMPRINTS that has the aim of analyzing impacts of future changes to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures and, in general, to improve the application of the EC Flood Risk Management Directive.

Integrating the diversity of farmers’ decisions into studies of rural land-use change

Although there is a large body of research into complex land-use/cover change (LUCC), the mechanisms that underlie land transformation are still poorly understood. To a large extent this results from the limited attention that has been paid to the human dimension in LUCC studies. While environmental processes are described by detailed and sophisticated frameworks, human behaviour has often been theorised in oversimplified ways. This paper presents a novel approach to the analysis of rural LUCC that integrates agent-based models (ABMs) with a multi-phase social survey. Findings from the application of the latter to a farming area in Switzerland are used as an illustrative example to support the argument for the need to obtain insights into human decision-making processes and their complex interactions with the locale-specific environment in order to successfully simulate LUCC.

The Roles of Precipitation Increases and Rural Land-Use Changes in Streamflow Trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Abstract Recent trends in precipitation and streamflow in the United States have become a particular focus of hydroclimatic research. The U.S. Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) has proven to be especially useful for the analysis of long-term streamflow trends. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists selected sites for inclusion in the HCDN from the USGS stream-gauge network on the basis of streamflows being relatively free of nonclimatic anthropogenic influences. Consequently, most previous analyses of flow trends at those sites have either implicitly or explicitly attributed the trends to climate change and variability. In this paper, trends in seasonal and annual precipitation, and annual 7-day low, mean, and peak flows are examined for 48 medium-sized HCDN streams in the upper Mississippi (UM) water-resource region over 1939–2008. Using the concept of precipitation elasticity of flow, it is shown that the observed magnitudes of statistically significant increases in mean and low flows were up to a factor of 3 greater than expected from observed precipitation increases alone. Peak flows increased less than expected, and in the case of the Driftless Area at the center of the UM basin, decreased despite increased precipitation. It is proposed that the differences between expected and observed changes in streamflow can be explained by rural land-use changes in this principally agricultural region.

A framework for the assessment of ecosystem goods and services; a case study on lowland floodplains in England

The rural space is increasingly valued for the multiple ecosystem services that it can deliver. For example, priorities in many lowland floodplains in England have changed in recent years from a focus on agricultural production towards environmental quality and the management of flood risk, in part linked to climate change. Recent concerns about food security, however, may reinstate the importance of agricultural production in these fertile areas. This paper explores changes in rural land use in floodplains by measuring the range of ecosystem services provided under different management scenarios. Generic land use scenarios consider management options that focus on single objectives, such as maximising agricultural production, maximising biodiversity and maximising flood storage capacity. Indicators are developed to value the ecosystem services provided by floodplains under each scenario, identifying potential synergy and conflict. This integrated ecosystems approach can help to inform future policy and practice for floodplain management, hopefully in ways that appeal to key stakeholders.

The New Chicago: A Social and Cultural Analysis, edited by John P. Koval, Larry Bennett, Michael I. J. Bennett, Fassil Demissie, Roberta Garner, and Kiljoong Kim

CONTENTS The New Chicago: A Social and Cultural Analysis, edited by John P. Koval, Larry Bennett, Michael I. J. Bennett, Fassil Demissie, Roberta Garner, and Kiljoong Kim. Review by Joseph Persky 656 Reining in the Competition for Capital, edited by Ann Markusen. Review by Edward Coulson 658 Labor Movement: How Migration Regulates Labor Markets, by Harald Bauder. Review by Oded Stark 660 Supply Chain Network Economics: Dynamics of Prices, Flows and Profits, by Anna Nagurney. Review by Terry L. Friesz 663 The Economic Geography of Innovation, edited by Karen R. Polenske. Review by Todd Gabe 664 Economics of Rural Land-Use Change, edited by Kathleen P. Bell, Kevin J. Boyle, and Jonathan Rubin. Review by John F. McDonald ........ 666 Rebuilding Urban Places After Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, edited by Eugenie L. Birch and Susan M. Wachter. Review by Susan L. Cutter 667 Women and Change at the U.S.-Mexico Border: Mobility, Labor, and Activism, edited by Doreen J. Mattingly and Ellen R. Hansen. Review by Chang-Hee Christine Bae 670 Welfare Reform in Persistent Rural Poverty: Dreams, Disenchantments, and Diversity, by Kathleen Pickering, Mark H. Harvey, Gene F. Summers, and David Mishinski. Review by Alexander Marre 671 Economic Turbulence: Is a Volatile Economy Good for America?, by Clair Brown, John Haltiwanger, and Julia Lane. Review by Mitch Renkow 673 Social Capital in the Knowledge Economy: Theory and Empirics, by Hans Westlund. Review by Howard Stafford and Risto Laulajainen... 675 Living Standards and the Wealth of Nations: Successes and Failures in Real Convergence, edited by Leszek Balcerowicz and Stanley Fischer. Review by Miguel D. Ramirez 677 Saving Puget Sound: A Conservation Strategy for the 21st Century, by John Lombard. Review by Kai N. Lee 681 Building Knowledge Regions in North America: Emerging Technology Innovation Poles, by Leonel Corona, Jerome Doutriaux, and Sarfraz A. Milan. Review by Peter L. Stenberg 683 Visualizing the Invisible: Towards an Urban Space, edited by Stephen Read and Camilo Panilla. Review by Ted Rutland 685

Economics of Rural Land-Use Change, edited by Kathleen P. Bell, Kevin J. Boyle, and Jonathan Rubin

Economics of Rural Land-Use Change, edited by Kathleen P. Bell, Kevin J. Boyle, and Jonathan Rubin

Determinants of Rural Land-use Change in Prasae Watershed Area of Thailand

Determinants of Rural Land-use Change in Prasae Watershed Area of Thailand

Economics of Rural Land-Use Change

This book analyses land use in the US. Far-reaching changes have affected rural areas over the last half century with the spread of cities and the growth in recreational and environmental uses of land. These changes have been effected mostly through the land market. The many failures of that market have led the authorities to intervene increasingly out of concern for the environment. This book meets the need for an overview of the subject by drawing on economic theories and modern econometric methods. Thirteen US economists from among the leading specialists have contributed to the 16 chapters of Economics of Rural Land-Use Change. The result is both a handbook, summarising the state of knowledge, and a presentation of (as yet unpublished) empirical studies illustrating and expanding on these issues. It is aimed at academic economists and students as well as public-sector decision-makers and managers, with the authors providing straightforward and didactic explanations of what are often complex matters without sacrificing scientific rigour and precision.

Development of a remotely sensed, historical land-cover change database for rural Chihuahua, Mexico

The purpose of this article is to describe the development of a remotely sensed, historical land-cover change database for the northwestern quarter of Chihuahua, Mexico, The database consists of multi-temporal land-cover classifications and change detection images. The database is developed to facilitate future investigations that examine urban–rural linkages as possible drivers of rural land-use and land-cover changes. To develop the needed land-cover change database, this study uses the North American Landsat Characterization (NALC) MSS triplicates because of their temporal depth and spatial breadth. Challenges exist, however, to effective classification and change detection using the NALC triplicates, including illumination differences across multiple scenes and periods caused by topographic and solar variations and the lack of ground reference data for historic periods. Therefore, creation of the database is a four step process. First, extensive pre-processing is performed to enhance comparability of multi-date images. Pre-processing includes topographic correction, mosaic creation and multi-date radiance normalization. Second, ancillary sources of land-cover data are combined with visual interpretations of enhanced images to define reference pixels used to classify the images using the maximum likelihood algorithm. Third, classification accuracy is assessed. Fourth, post-classification change detection is performed. Results indicate significant image improvements after pre-processing that permit very good overall classification (86.26% classified correctly) and change detection. To conclude, findings are presented that indicate significant changes to arid grasslands/shrublands and forest resources in mountainous regions.

An assessment of the impact of upland afforestation on lowland river reaches: the Afon Trannon, mid-Wales

Upland afforestation in the UK was the largest rural land-use change last century. As a consequence, the bed load yields of upland catchments increased substantially. Circumstantial evidence suggests that, when this increased load reaches the lowland catchment, it is deposited, triggering flow diversion and channel instability. However, despite the widespread adoption of this theory, it remains to be properly tested. This paper uses aerial photograph analysis and contemporary channel digital terrain models (DTMs) to assess this concept on the Afon Trannon, mid-Wales, the upper catchment of which was afforested between 1948 and 1978. Construction of a sediment budget demonstrates that upland catchment bed load yields are only equivalent to localized inputs of gravel from bank erosion and are therefore unlikely to be totally responsible for producing the high rates of channel change observed in some lowland reaches. Channel instability appears to be more related to the nature of the local bank input as those reaches where gravel is not present in the bank material are stable. Additionally, flood magnitude and frequency are shown to have increased since 1988, a factor of at least equal importance to that of bed load yields from either upland catchments or local bank erosion. It is concluded that, in contrast to previous work, afforestation in the uplands has only a minor influence on downstream reaches of the Afon Trannon. Situations where upland afforestation may have a greater impact on downstream reaches are discussed and the implications for best management practice explored.

The Changing Dynamics of Land-Use Change in Rural China: A Case Study of Yuhang, Zhejiang Province

There is considerable debate in the literature on the extent and magnitude of Chinese rural land-use change since the onset of reforms in 1978. Moreover, there is little agreement on the factors leading to rural land-use change. Urbanization of the countryside, rural industrialization and housing development, lack of systematic agricultural protection policies and mechanisms for their implementation, and land-development programs are often considered responsible for the conversion of agricultural land to nonagricultural uses. Through a detailed case study of Yuhang in Zhejiang Province, the author attempts to unveil the complexity involved in land-use change in rural China. A variety of data sources, including published and unpublished official documents and statistics, local gazetteers, key informant interviews, and field observations, are employed. The results of the case study indicate a substantial reduction in agricultural land over the last twenty years. However, the path of this decline has not been smooth. The second decade of reform saw much evidence of decline in agricultural land. Spatially, the most severe decrease in agricultural land has been in areas close to urban centers, and with high accessibility. Urban sprawl, rural industrialization, and housing development have all contributed to the loss of agricultural land. But the author concludes that governments at various levels have played contradictory roles in the process of change. Whereas the governments have made a series of policy initiatives to protect agricultural land, they have, however, been the most important players in destabliizing the land base for agricultural production.

The hydrological component of the NELUP decision-support system: an appraisal

The NELUP decision-support system (DSS) has been developed to provide a quantitative description of the main economic and environmental impacts arising out of rural land-use change at the river-basin scale. The system integrates models of economics, ecology and hydrology with relational and spatial databases, thereby permitting interactive evaluation of different future scenarios through a graphical user-interface. The models are coupled by means of data transfers via the database and allow, for example, the consequences of economic policies on agricultural production to be estimated in terms of predicted impact on water resources and ecological diversity within a basin. The two hydrological modelling systems employed in the NELUP DSS, namely SHETRAN and NUARNO, are described. The utility of the hydrological component is illustrated, making use of an application relating to the problem of stream-fed irrigation in the Cam river basin.

Land Lost from Agriculture: a Dubious Basis for Rural Policy

This paper raises doubts about the extent to which productive agricultural land and prime agricultural land have been lost from agriculture in New South Wales, through the development of hobby farms. It also questions the effects of instruments which have been used generally to control the subdivisions which have been seen as putative causes of perceived losses. It concludes that there is a need for better data to enable changes in rural land use to be monitored more precisely.

1989年度秋季学術大会シンポジウム 土地利用変化とその問題

Land use is an important subject of geography, but it has largely been dealt with as a subordinate part of other subjects, such as urban geography or agricultural geography, Consequently, it has failed to make systematic progress, and nation-wide comprehensive studies have been rare. The Land-use Working Group, which is responsible for the current symposium, was established five years ago as a study group, in order to organize land-use researchers for the enhancement of the traditional but then somewhat disorganized research field. The group has so far held ten meetings, including an international symposium which was convened three years ago. Among the group's achievements are that land use has come to be recognized as an important research subject and that many land-use researchers, whose interests range from urban to rural and from Landsat to policy, were organized. The present symposium is intended to contribute to the exchange of information and views regarding various aspects of land-use change and its related problems, based on recent research achievements within and outside the working group. The subjects of this symposium include land-use policy issues as well as more basic data collection and analysis, while the previous symposium was mainly concerned with the latter. It consists of the following four sub-themes: (1) Provision and use of large-area data. (2) Urban land-use change and its related problems. (3) Rural land-use change and its related problems. (4) Environmental management and planning.

CHANGES IN RURAL LAND USE PATTERNS ON THE CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN

The Central Lake Ontario Plain is defined for this paper as the strip of four townships along the shore of Lake Ontario immediately to the east of Metropolitan Toronto. These townships are examined here to determine the kinds and amounts of rural land-use change which have taken place during the last three decades. in addition to gross changes recorded by the census for the entire area, changes which have taken place on the individual occupance unit are studied. For the area as a whole, there has been a decrease in cropland and in number of farms, but the area in pasture has increased, as has the proportion of cropland in hay. Sample farm studies showed changes in the type of operation, in the size of the operating unit, and in the methods of farming. General farming has become less prevalent, dairy farming has become more prevalent, and beef farming has remained relatively stable. Two new types of farming have developed: the cash crop farm without livestock, and the part-time farm. Expansion in the size of the operational unit has been greatest on dairy farms, and least on the general farms. Concomitant changes in methods and machinery are noted. A series of controls are proposed as being responsible for the changing patterns. Dominant among these is the influence of urbanization and its effect on land values. Economic return from the land, new technology, rising capital costs, land capability, size of landholding, and the human element are all factors which have influenced the changes in land-use patterns.