Recent Historical Changes Research Articles

Impact of population structure in the estimation of recent historical effective population size by the software GONE

BackgroundEffective population size (Ne) is a crucial parameter in conservation genetics and animal breeding. A recent method, implemented by the software GONE, has been shown to be rather accurate in estimating recent historical changes in Ne from a single sample of individuals. However, GONE estimations assume that the population being studied has remained isolated for a period of time, that is, without migration or confluence of other populations. If this occurs, the estimates of Ne can be heavily biased. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of migration and admixture on the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE through a series of computer simulations considering several scenarios: (a) the mixture of two or more ancestral populations; (b) subpopulations that continuously exchange individuals through migration; (c) populations receiving migrants from a large source; and (d) populations with balanced systems of chromosomal inversions, which also generate genetic structure.ResultsOur results indicate that the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE may be substantially biased when there has been a recent mixture of populations that were previously separated for a long period of time. Similarly, biases may occur when the rate of continued migration between populations is low, or when chromosomal inversions are present at high frequencies. However, some biases due to population structuring can be eliminated by conducting population structure analyses and restricting the estimation to the differentiated groups. In addition, disregarding the genomic regions that are involved in inversions can also remove biases in the estimates of Ne.ConclusionsDifferent kinds of deviations from isolation and panmixia of the populations can generate biases in the recent historical estimates of Ne. Therefore, estimation of past demography could benefit from performing population structure analyses beforehand, by mitigating the impact of these biases on historical Ne estimates.

The Importance of Positive Psychological Strengths in Well-Being and Adjustment of Romanian Emerging Adults: A Pattern and Variable-Oriented Approach.

Transition to adulthood in countries that have seen recent historical structural changes in society as well as changes in what it means to be an adult represents important contexts for investigations of ways in which positive development and transition to adulthood are experienced. Situated in such context, this cross-sectional study aimed to (1) describe profiles of positive psychological strengths, as measured by the Five Cs of positive youth development (PYD) and (2) document how identified profiles might differ in relation to other aspects of positive and problematic development. Participants were 272 Romanian emerging adults attending university (76% female; aged 19–29 years old, Mage = 21 years old). Latent class analysis was performed to identify patterns of psychological strengths using the Five Cs theory of positive youth development. Pairwise Wald chi square difference tests were then conducted to determine if the identified Five Cs profiles were associated with significant differences in other key outcomes. Findings indicated that, a two-class model emerged as the best fitting model, and in this model, Class 1 was similar to Class 2 on strengths of competence, confidence, and connection. However, the two classes were distinguishable by caring and character, with Class 2, the numerically more common profile (89%), being elevated on character and caring relative to Class 1 (which was a less frequently occurring profile, 11%). This finding highlights the importance of examining the diversity of positive development, even within the same theoretical framework. Further results indicated that the two identified classes showed similarities in problematic behaviors as well as in purpose in life and psychological complaints. Other group difference tests by profile/class indicated that Class 2 was higher in general and social well-being relative to Class 1, with a trend in the same direction for hope. However, an unexpected finding was that Class 2 was also elevated in somatic complaints relative to Class 1. These are important findings not only because of the contribution to the generalizability of the Five Cs theory and measure but also because of the implications of the findings to research, policy, and practice in the Romanian context and beyond.

Genetic Consequences of Forest Fragmentation in a Widespread Forest Bat (Natalus mexicanus, Chiroptera: Natalidae)

Recent historical and anthropogenic changes in the landscape causing habitat fragmentation can disrupt the connectivity of wild populations and pose a threat to the genetic diversity of multiple species. This study investigated the effect of habitat fragmentation on the structure and genetic diversity of the Mexican greater funnel-eared bat (Natalus mexicanus) throughout its distribution range in Mexico, whose natural habitat has decreased dramatically in recent years. Genetic structure and diversity were measured using the HVII hypervariable domain of the mitochondrial control region and ten nuclear microsatellite loci, to analyze historical and contemporary information, respectively. The mitochondrial and nuclear results pointed to a differential genetic structuring, derived mainly from philopatry in females. Our results also showed that genetic diversity was historically high and currently moderate; additionally, the contemporary gene flow between the groups observed was null. These findings confirm that the effects of habitat fragmentation have started to be expressed in populations and that forest loss is already building barriers to contemporary gene flow. The concern is that gene flow is a process essential to ensure that the genetic diversity of N. mexicanus populations (and probably of many other forest species) distributed in Mexico is preserved or increased in the long term by maintaining forest connectivity between locations.

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Charting adult development through (historically changing) daily stress processes.

This article views adult development through the lens of daily life experiences and recent historical changes in these experiences. In particular, it examines whether theories that postulate general linear increases in well-being throughout adulthood still hold during times of less prosperity and more uncertainty. Descriptive analyses of the National Study of Daily Experiences chart show how stress in the daily lives of Americans may have changed from the 1990s (N = 1,499) to the 2010s (N = 782). Results revealed that adults in the 2010s reported experiencing stressors on 2% more days than in the 1990s, which translates to an additional week of stressors across a year. Participants in the 2010s also reported that stressors were more severe and posed more risks to future plans and finances and that they experienced more distress. These historical changes were particularly pronounced among middle-aged adults (e.g., proportion of stressor days increased by 19%, and perceived risks to finances and to future plans rose by 61% and 52%, respectively). As a consequence, age-related linear increases in well-being observed from young adulthood to midlife in the 1990s were no longer observed in the 2010s. If further studies continue to replicate our findings, traditional theories of adult well-being that were developed and empirically tested during times of relative economic prosperity may need to be reevaluated in light of the changes in middle adulthood currently observed in this historic period. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Persistence of the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) across Victoria is correlated with climate and elevation

Abstract ContextThe broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus; BTR) is distributed throughout south-eastern Australia, but its populations are restricted and dispersed. BTRs prefer cooler, wetter habitats and, as such, future climate change is projected to lead to further range reductions. However, recent changes in its distribution have not been well documented, and there is limited knowledge about the current occupancy and population size of the species in Victoria. AimsTo evaluate recent historical changes in the distribution of BTRs in Victoria, and to test whether changes in distribution are correlated with climate and elevation. MethodsWe obtained all documented records of BTRs in the state before 1990 and used field notes and verbal descriptions to geo-reference their historical localities. We then used a repeated sampling design to resurvey all historically occupied sites with a geographic coordinate uncertainty of 4km or less. We tested for the effects of climate and elevation on the persistence of BTRs. Key resultsWe detected BTRs at 32 of 68 historical sites surveyed. Consistent with climate model predictions, site persistence was more likely to occur at sites of higher elevation and precipitation and less likely to occur at sites with a higher temperature. Minimum temperature of the coldest month was the single best predictor of persistence. ConclusionsThese results demonstrated a substantial decline in the persistence of BTRs at historical sites across Victoria and provided a benchmark for future monitoring and management efforts. ImplicationsThe decline of BTRs from historically occupied sites across Victoria is consistent with their listing as endangered in the state, and climate correlations suggest further declines, with projected climate change compounding other threats to the species such as introduced predators, feral herbivores, fire and land use. However, the status of BTRs in Victoria and understanding of the threats to their persistence are based on sparse data, highlighting the critical need for more effective monitoring of the species.

Mitogenomic analysis of the Australian lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri) reveals structuring of indigenous riverine populations and late Pleistocene movement between drainage basins

Neoceratodus forsteri: is a freshwater species of Dipnoan currently listed as ‘vulnerable to extinction’ under Australian legislation. The species is restricted to at least two indigenous riverine populations in southeastern Queensland, and several other putatively translocated populations. Current understanding of genetic relationships among populations is based on studies of allozymes, microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) fragments. A notable feature of all these datasets was low genetic variability. Here we sequence the complete mitogenome of 71 N. forsteri individuals from five populations to improve resolution of mtDNA diversity, examine relationships among populations, and evaluate recent demographic history. We recorded 137 variable positions forming 41 haplotypes in the 16,573 bp mitogenome alignment. Strong genetic structure was observed among riverine samples (global ΦST = 0.342) in a pattern consistent with translocation history. Tinana Creek was confirmed as an isolated and genetically unique subpopulation that should be recognized as a distinct management unit. Two previously unreported mtDNA clades (0.46% mean divergence) were found and suggest that genetic exchange among coastal catchments may have been facilitated by riverine connections on the exposed continental shelf during the late Pleistocene. Extended Bayesian skyline analysis showed no evidence for recent historical change in female effective population size, and codon-based selection tests found no evidence for positive selection in coding genes. Overall, our results emphasise the utility of the full mtDNA molecule for capturing population structure in taxa with low genetic diversity. In such cases, informative variation may be scattered across disparate parts of the mitogenome. Surveying relatively short fragments of mtDNA may lead to significant underestimates of population structure when applied to threatened species with low genetic diversity.

Extreme homogenization: The past, present and future of mammal assemblages on islands

AbstractAimWe documented how the similarity of mammal assemblages on continental and oceanic islands has changed since initial human colonization, since European arrival and overall. We investigated how levels of similarity might change in the future.LocationContinental and oceanic islands worldwide.Time periodHuman settlement of islands to the present, as well as projections for the future.Major taxa studiedMammals.MethodsWe used mammal occurrence data on islands to calculate the change in similarity using a pairwise approach based on Jaccard's index and a multisite approach based on Jaccard's and Sørensen's measures. We divided the mammal assemblages into two time periods, before and after island colonization or trade began with Europeans. We unpacked the mechanisms driving changes in similarity, exploring how initial similarity interacts with seven types of species turnover events to determine overall change. Finally, we calculated how future similarity levels will change if past trends in introductions and extinctions continue.ResultsMammals, on both continental and oceanic islands, show one of the most pronounced cases of homogenization ever observed, and on oceanic islands mammals show the largest increase in homogenization ever observed for a terrestrial group. Most of the homogenization observed to date has been driven by recent historical changes, not by changes that occurred before European arrival. If current patterns of species introductions and extinctions continue, then oceanic islands will experience little additional homogenization, whereas continental islands will homogenize greatly beyond current levels.Main conclusionsMammal assemblages on oceanic islands show nearly an order of magnitude greater change in similarity than plant and bird assemblages. Projections of future similarity indicate that continental and oceanic islands are on different trajectories of change. These trajectories could be altered by management actions, but in some cases those actions that would be impactful run counter to current conservation norms.

The wounds of post-socialism: a systematic review of the social determinants of mortality in Hungary

Eastern Europe underwent one of the most dramatic economic and demographic changes in recent history with skyrocketing mortality rates in some countries during the 1990s. The case of Hungary among the post-socialist transition countries is puzzling for several reasons. Although the Hungarian transition has often been characterized as smooth and successful, a look at the human dimension of the transformation reveals large costs and a slow improvement. Based on the analysis of 29 articles we provide a systematic review of the empirical evidence about the social determinants of mortality in post-socialist Hungary establishing a hierarchy of causes. Socio-economic position, mental health, social capital, alcohol consumption, stress and social integration are the most important explanatory variables that received attention by the researchers. Although economic policies might have played a central role in the rise of mortality there is no empirical research on the political economy of health in Hungary. No critical analysis of post-socialism can be complete without assessing the human costs of economic transformation. Social scientists have much to learn from social epidemiologists who have designed robust methodologies and complex theoretical frameworks to analyse the political economic determinants of health.

The emergence of a security discipline in the post 9-11 discourse of U.S. security organisations

ABSTRACTThis paper explores two views of the changes that have occurred in the U.S. security services as a result of their post 9/11 reform. The first is Bigo’s suggestion that agencies worldwide have become enmeshed in shared activity so as to constitute a new ‘field of (in)security’. A second, novel perspective is that the security services have developed many of the characteristics of a discipline or ‘discursive formation’, constructing intelligence both as a form of expertly constituted knowledge and as the basis for a new type of professional, disciplinary power. The investigation combines corpus techniques with other discourse analysis procedures to examine a corpus of public-facing texts generated by the U.S. security agencies. The investigation aims to synthesise evidence consistent with both views of the security services’ recent historical change; that features of their discourse signal their emergence simultaneously as a new field and discursive formation.

Spatio-temporal variation of biotic factors underpins contemporary range dynamics of congeners.

Species' ranges are complex often exhibiting multidirectional shifts over space and time. Despite the strong fingerprint of recent historical climate change on species' distributions, biotic factors such as loss of vegetative habitat and the presence of potential competitors constitute important yet often overlooked drivers of range dynamics. Furthermore, short-term changes in environmental conditions can influence the underlying processes of local extinction and local colonization that drive range shifts, yet are rarely considered at broad scales. We used dynamic state-space occupancy models to test multiple hypotheses of the relative importance of major drivers of range shifts of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) and Blue-winged Warblers (V.cyanoptera) between 1983 and 2012 across North America: warming temperatures; habitat changes; and occurrence of congeneric species, used here as proxy for biotic interactions. Dynamic occupancies for both species were most influenced by spatial relative to temporal variation in temperature and habitat. However, temporal variation in temperature anomalies and biotic interactions remained important. The two biotic factors considered, habitat change and biotic interactions, had the largest relative effect on estimated extinction rates followed by abiotic temperature anomalies. For the Golden-winged Warbler, the predicted presence of the Blue-winged Warbler, a hypothesized competitor, most influenced extinction probabilities, contributing to evidence supporting its role in site-level species replacement. Given the overall importance of biotic factors on range-wide dynamic occupancies, their consideration alongside abiotic factors should not be overlooked. Our results suggest that warming compounds the negative effect of habitat loss emphasizing species' need for habitat to adapt to a changing climate. Notably, even closely related species exhibited individual responses to abiotic and biotic factors considered.

Cyber Siren: What Mami Wata reveals about the Internet and Chinese presence in Kinshasa

In 2012, images of a mystical mermaid known locally as Mami Wata circulated on the Internet and via people's mobile phones, sparking rumours that Chinese labourers had captured her as they were installing underwater fibreoptic cables. Appearing as a grotesque sea-creature with a gnarled, shrivelled body, this new image of Mami Wata challenges older, popular depictions of her as a beautiful maiden. Further, in her deformed body, Mami Wata reveals new tensions arising from promises of wealth and modernisation promoted by both Chinese and Congolese governments. Accounts of rumours/urban legends and metaphors of contagion animate larger contemporary discussions concerning development projects, “otherness” and the influence of the Internet and mobile phone technology on production of popular African culture. The female siren, Mami Wata, is a recurring motif in Kinshasa's collective urban imaginary. Historically she has been an expression of modernity and hybridity through visual representation in popular painting, sculpture and television serials. Now Mami Wata appears in the digital world. In this article, in addition to analysing the ways in which contemporary technology mediates this archetypal figure, I draw on notions of otherness, recent historical, political and economic changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo to analyse the ways they inform the particular shape and meaning that Mami Wata takes when transformed into the digital domain.

Hydrodynamic, neotectonic and climatic control of the evolution of a barrier beach in the microtidal environment of the NE Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean)

The existence of barrier beaches is crucial, as they act as a buffer zone to the associated wetlands, whilst they are sensitive to climate change. The present study offers an insight into the processes controlling the formation and evolution of the Gyra barrier beach (NW coast of the island of Lefkada) in the microtidal, tectonically very active Ionian Sea under the influence of regional climate change and human interference. Such investigations are sparse in the literature. Existing information regarding regional geology, sediment availability and human intervention is combined with the collection of geophysical data, field observations and simulations of nearshore hydro- and sediment dynamics, analysis of climatic variations with respect to offshore wind/wave patterns (including storminess), in situ measurements of recent morphometric changes (2006–2008) and historical shoreline changes (since the 1960s). The recent formation and evolution (mostly under retreat) of the Gyra barrier beach is shown to be the combined result of the regional seismotectonic setting, relative increase of sea level, coastal sediment transport patterns, as well as human impact (negative) on primarily terrestrial sediment influxes. The current erosional trend of the barrier beach is associated with a shift in the wind and wave direction (from SW to NW) of extreme storm events in the Ionian Sea since the 1980s. The regional climatic variations of the last decades are well correlated with the trend of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Health and Well-Being in Emerging Adults' Same-Sex Relationships: Critical Questions and Directions for Research in Developmental Science.

Researchers have yet to account for the potentially unique experiences of emerging adults who are in or seeking to be in a relationship with a same-sex romantic partner. This paper articulates an agenda for research focused on better understanding and addressing the health and well-being of emerging adults in or pursuing same-sex romantic relationships. We provide a general summary of what is known about health and well-being in same-sex relationships, followed by an overview of the current and changing social climate surrounding same-sex relationships. We point out how recent historical changes present sexual minority emerging adults with unique relational benefits and challenges that have not been examined within the social and health sciences. We conclude by proposing a set of research questions to help develop knowledge needed to improve the health and well-being of emerging adults in or pursuing same-sex relationships.

Is the policy for economic development in Alberta directed by the Alberta economic development authority?

The province of Alberta’s economic development policy has shifted from rural-led policy development to a corporate-led direction creating significant changes in recent history. While positive outcomes have come about, the change has also resulted in increased bureaucracy, a rise in individualized approaches to program delivery, taxpayer dissatisfaction and a sizable financial debt. This paper traces the historical political climate and addresses the issues that have come to light as a result of this shift. The author also considers how the involvement of the Alberta Economic Development Authority – a group of business, education, community leaders and legislators tasked to recommend to government policy direction and changes – have influenced the province.Keywords: economic development policy, Alberta Economic Development Authority, government

On men, organizations and intersectionality

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reflect, personally, regarding work, politically and theoretically, on 40 years of involvement in organization studies, profeminism and intersectionality. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses autoethnography. Findings – The paper shows the need for a broad notion of the field and fieldwork, the development of intersectional thinking, the complexity of men's relations to feminism and intersectionality and the need to both name and deconstruct men in the research field. Research limitations/implications – The paper suggests a more explicit naming and deconstruction of men and other intersectional social categories in doing research. Practical implications – The paper suggests a more explicit naming and deconstruction of men and other intersectional social categories in equality practice. Social implications – The paper suggests a more explicit naming and deconstruction of men and other intersectional social categories in social, political and policy interventions. Originality/value – The paper points to recent historical changes in the connections between feminism, gender, profeminism, organizations and intersectionality in relation to equality, diversity and inclusion.

On binary features in the evolution of human language

This paper has argued that the binary pair is a powerful feature in both the evolution and the recent historical change of language. It is indeed true that our language requires nouns and verbs to form predicates and to fully meet our daily communicative needs. It is easier for us to consider from our modern perspective that almost all modern languages have more than noun and verb in their lexical categories. However, it has been argued in this paper that this current state of grammar is all due to the emergence of verb. Once there is a noun-verb opposition, it is easy to develop complex grammatical systems through grammaticalisation, as schematically represented in Figure 1. The importance of binary oppositions is not restricted to evolution, but recent historical changes also suggest the importance of binary pairs, possibly recapitulating earlier evolutionary changes of languages. This line of argument would suggest that there can be two stages in linguistic evolution, i.e. the pre-binary stage and the post-binary stage. The pivotal change here is, needless to say, the emergence of verb. Grammaticalisation can easily explain how noun and verb can turn into more complex grammatical structures, i.e. the post-binary stage, but the applicability of grammaticalisation to the pre-binary stage is open to question for the moment. What is important is that our language has spent so much time to come up with the basic binary pair noun and verb, and once there is one, the rest of the development is very easy. This indicates how powerful binary pairs can be.

Pine marten (Martes martes) distribution and abundance in Ireland: A cross-jurisdictional analysis using non-invasive genetic survey techniques

On the Island of Ireland, pine martens (Martes martes) exist at the western edge of their global geographic range in the least forested region of Europe. The species has undergone substantial declines in abundance and distribution during the 20th century. Here, we report on the first cross-jurisdictional (Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland) survey that aimed to investigate current pine marten distribution, assess any recent historical change and provide preliminary estimates of population abundance.A standardised non-invasive survey technique that used scat-based transect surveys and DNA analysis to confirm scat identity was deployed in 258 10km national grid squares during 2005–2007. In the Republic of Ireland, an occupancy rate of 59.6% was found. Comparisons with historical data indicated that a range expansion of pine marten had occurred over the last 30years. Indicative core population range extended to over 50% of the land area with population abundance estimates of 2740 individuals.In Northern Ireland, an occupancy rate of 56.7% was determined with the population largely concentrated in western areas. There was little or no evidence of any recent expansion from core population areas (18% of land area) despite recent increases in forest cover and full legal protection. Population abundance estimates of 320 emphasise the critical requirement for action to conserve this species.The pine marten is one of the rarest wildlife species in Ireland and, based on our studies, an evidenced based conservation strategy that promotes a sustainable future for the species needs to be developed.

Meaning and Usage of a Term for Bullying-Like Phenomena in South Korea

This study investigates the meaning and usage of the term wang-ta and other terms for bullying-like phenomena in an Eastern culture, South Korea. Data were obtained from 113 participants, ranging from young children to adults. Age-related differences in usage were found, in part developmental, but also suggesting some recent historical changes perhaps due to fashion in usage of terms especially in adolescence. Nevertheless, the term wang-ta and related terms all emphasize social exclusion, and this is argued to reflect the collectivistic nature of South Korean society.

How can we improve the effective engagement of doctors in clinical leadership?

PurposeThis article aims to review some of the literature relating to the concept of effective engagement of doctors with health service redesign and delivery and discuss the relevance in light of recent developments from the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges.Design/methodology/approachThis article is a literature overview and personal reflection. It contains elements of personal reflection on the recent historical policy changes that have the potential to lead to frontline changes in the development of managerial training for doctors and how this could benefit healthcare systemsFindingsFor services to be effective doctors need to be engaged in their design. Historically the engagement of doctors in this process has been haphazard and often taken on by doctors who have been provided with little management training. This has led to internal and external conflict and possibly been a contributing factor to lack of clinical engagement. The recent suggestions by the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges and NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement around mandatory management training for doctors throughout all stages of their training as doctors has the potential to improve effective clinical engagement of doctors in service redesign and delivery and therefore their potential for success.Originality/valueThis paper has been written by a consultant psychiatrist who is involved with frontline delivery of services, medical management and training of doctors and medical students.