Choosing the right intensity of medical care is ahuge challenge particularly in long-term geriatric care. The Nascher score was developed to assess future medical care needs. The aim of this study was to determine whether the Nascher score and arevised version can predict future medical needs. In this retrospective cohort study, 396 residents in long-term care hospitals, who were admitted over a period of two years and followed up to two and a half yeare, were analysed. Outcome parameters were: (1)number of medication changes, (2)number of ward doctor documentations and (3)number of acute illnesses treated with antibiotics, and mortality risk. Based on the first results, an alternative scoring of the Nascher score with 12instead of 26items was developed, called the revised Nascher score. The Nascher score significantly correlated with the number of medication changes, the number of ward doctor documentations, and the number of acute ilnesses treated with antibiotics with Spearman correlation coefficients of 0.30, 0.26, and 0.15, respectively. The revised Nascher score showed ahigher correlation with correlation coefficients of0.36, 0.26, and 0.21, respectively. Residents with aNascher score in the highest quartile had asignificantly higher mortality risk than residents in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio, HR 2.97, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.80-4.34). The corresponding values for the revised Nascher score were HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.03-4.54 in the highest and HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.24-2.60 in the middle quartiles. The Nascher score and even more so the revised Nascher score are well suited to predicting the various parameters of future medical needs and mortality risk.