Changes In Modifiable Risk Factors Research Articles

41 The Role of Physical Activity, Social Support and Genetic Risk in Age-Related Cognitive Decline Over Time: A UK Biobank Study

Objective:This study aimed to determine how modifiable risk factors, such as physical exercise and social support, and non-modifiable risk factors, such as genetic risk may affect cognitive function over time in older adults. As well, the study explored how changes in modifiable risk factors (i.e., increase in exercise) may affect cognitive function over time. This research question was shaped with the help of a patient partner team.Participants and Methods:The study used UK Biobank data, and patient partners were involved in shaping research questions/goals. The UK Biobank study had participants complete comprehensive baseline assessments (2006-2010), with subgroups also completing repeat assessments (2012-2013), imaging assessments (2014-ongoing) and/or repeat imaging assessments (2019-ongoing; i.e., 2-4 data points per participant). Age, sex, education, ethnicity, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) e4 status (at least one e4 allele present) data were collected at baseline. Employment, physical activity, social support, and recent depressive symptom data were collected across timepoints. A Fluid intelligence score was obtained at each timepoint via a series of thirteen 1-pt. reasoning tasks (range: 0-13). Participants who did not complete cognitive testing at baseline and at least one other time point, and those with neurological conditions or events (e.g., stroke, epilepsy, dementia) were excluded (final N=17,409).Multi-Level Modeling (with Maximum Likelihood) was utilized, with fluid intelligence as the primary outcome measure. We ran Model 1: fully unconditioned, Model 2: with time predictor in years (baseline= 0), and Model 3: with baseline physical activity, social support and APOE e-4 predictors and covariates (mean-centered as appropriate), time-varying physical activity and social support predictors, and interaction terms. Nonsignificant interaction terms were trimmed from Model 3 to facilitate interpretation.Results:Model 1 was significant (p<.001) with an intraclass correlation (ICC) of 0.64, suggesting that 64% of the total variance in fluid intelligence in this sample is due to interindividual differences. Model 2 revealed that the average fluid intelligence score at baseline mean age (55.85) was 6.79 and significantly decreased with each year increase since baseline. Results from Model 3 (trimmed) revealed that being male, white, and having at least a university degree were associated with higher score at baseline, while being older and having more recent depressive symptoms were associated with lower scores. Higher social support quality was associated with higher scores while higher social support quantity was associated with lower scores at baseline; however, higher social support quantity at baseline was associated with less decline in scores over time. Surprisingly, having at least one e4 allele was associated with higher scores. Engaging in more moderate physical activity was associated with lower scores at baseline, however, individuals who increased the length of their moderate physical activity sessions over time showed higher timepoint-specific fluid intelligence scores. Additional significant interactions will be elaborated.Conclusions:Results suggest that increases in the length of moderate physical activity exercise sessions were associated with better cognitive function over time. Having better social support quality was also associated with better cognitive function, while higher social support quantity was associated with less cognitive decline over time. These findings suggest that positive lifestyle changes in older adulthood may slow cognitive decline.

Development and Validation of the US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) Model: Health Disparity and Economic Impact Model.

Few simulation models have incorporated the interplay of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD); their upstream lifestyle and biological risk factors; and their downstream effects on health disparities and economic consequences. We developed and validated a US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) model that incorporates demographic, clinical, and lifestyle risk factors to jointly predict overall and racial-ethnic groups-specific obesity, diabetes, CVD, and cause-specific mortality for the US adult population aged 40 to 79 y at baseline. An individualized health care cost prediction model was further developed and integrated. This model incorporates nationally representative data on baseline demographics, lifestyle, health, and cause-specific mortality; dynamic changes in modifiable risk factors over time; and parameter uncertainty using probabilistic distributions. Validation analyses included assessment of 1) population-level risk calibration and 2) individual-level risk discrimination. To illustrate the application of the DOC-M model, we evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a national produce prescription program. Comparing the 15-y model-predicted population risk of primary outcomes among the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort with the observed prevalence from age-matched cross-sectional 2003-2016 NHANES cohorts, calibration performance was strong based on observed-to-expected ratio and calibration plot analysis. In most cases, Brier scores fell below 0.0004, indicating a low overall prediction error. Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts, the c-statistics for assessing individual-level risk discrimination were 0.85 to 0.88 for diabetes, 0.93 to 0.95 for obesity, 0.74 to 0.76 for CVD history, and 0.78 to 0.81 for all-cause mortality, both overall and in three racial-ethnic groups. Open-source code for the model was posted at https://github.com/food-price/DOC-M-Model-Development-and-Validation. The validated DOC-M model can be used to examine health, equity, and the economic impact of health policies and interventions on behavioral and clinical risk factors for obesity, diabetes, and CVD. We developed a novel microsimula'tion model for obesity, diabetes, and CVD, which intersect together and - critically for prevention and treatment interventions - share common lifestyle, biologic, and demographic risk factors.Validation analyses, including assessment of (1) population-level risk calibration and (2) individual-level risk discrimination, showed strong performance across the overall population and three major racial-ethnic groups for 6 outcomes (obesity, diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality, CVD- and DM-cause mortality)This paper provides a thorough explanation and documentation of the development and validation process of a novel microsimulation model, along with the open-source code (https://github.com/food-price/ DOCM_validation) for public use, to serve as a guide for future simulation model assessments, validation, and implementation.

The impact of COVID‐19 restrictions after one year on modifiable risk factors related to brain health in older adults in The Netherlands

AbstractBackgroundCOVID‐19‐restrictions impact the lifestyle and mental health of people, which then might affect brain health and increase risk of cognitive decline particularly in older adults. Thereby, COVID‐19 might indirectly contribute to cognitive decline. We aimed to investigate changes in modifiable risk factors related to brain health in older adults after one year of COVID‐19‐restrictions.MethodAn online questionnaire was disseminated between February and March 2021 to registrants of the Dutch Brain Research Registry, aged ≥50, without a self‐reported diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Participants reported potential changes in behaviors during COVID‐19 pandemic concerning modifiable risk factors in eight domains (physical activity, sleep, memory, stress, feeling of loneliness, diet, alcohol consumption and smoking) compared to before the COVID‐19‐outbreak. We counted the number of reported detrimental and beneficial changes, and used multiple regression analyses to relate (socio)demographics, subjective memory complaints and COVID‐19 related aspects to increasing number of reported detrimental and beneficial changes, separately.Result3943 participants (66±8 years old, 76% female) completed the questionnaire. After one year of COVID‐19‐restrictions, 74% reported one or more detrimental changes and 60% reported at least on beneficial change. More specifically, participants reported more often detrimental changes for loneliness, sleep, physical activities, stress, memory complaints and smoking, while beneficial changes were more often reported for diet and alcohol consumption. More detrimental changes was associated lower age, (B = 0.02; 95%confidence interval = ‐0.03‐ ‐0.01), female sex (0.28;0.15–0.41), living alone (0.35;0.22–0.48), the presence of subjective memory complaints (0.69;0.54–0.84), a current or past COVID‐19 infection (0.35;0.14–0.56) and a fear of a COVID‐infection (0.54;0.42–0.65). In addition, those who were less satisfied with their income were more likely to report more detrimental changes (0.66;0.34‐1.00). More beneficial changes were only associated with female sex (0.16;0.06‐0.27).ConclusionThe COVID‐19 pandemic appears to have a differentially impact on older adults in the Netherlands, with people who are relatively younger, female, living alone, experiencing subjective memory complaints and those with a past or current or fear of a COVID‐19‐infection seem more vulnerable for more detrimental changes in modifiable risk factors related to brain health. Thus providing an opportunity for targeted prevention and health education.

Changes in modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer´s disease and dementia during the COVID‐19 pandemic in Swedish older adults: a population‐based digital survey

AbstractBackgroundOlder adults have a higher risk of Alzheimer´s disease (AD) and dementia. In terms of morbidity and mortality, they also represent the group most severely affected by the SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Since February 2020, the Swedish government recommended different general measures limiting mobility and social contact, to contain the spread of infection. Pandemic‐related changes in lifestyle and access to healthcare could have a negative impact on modifiable factors for AD and dementia.MethodsA digital survey was distributed to the general population (multiple distribution channels, voluntary participation) during the last waves of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Sweden (May/2021 – December/2021). Participants were people aged 60+ years, free of dementia, and living in Sweden. The survey aimed to measure changes in lifestyle (e.g., diet, physical activity), care of vascular/metabolic risk factors (e.g., diabetes, hypertension), as well as psychosocial factors (e.g., depressive symptoms, sleep quality, social isolation) relevant for AD and dementia. The survey is part of the World‐Wide‐FINGERS‐SARS‐CoV‐2 initiative.Results6,918 participants completed the survey, mean age was 67.9 (5.11 SD), 58% were female, 71.6% were from urban areas. Preliminary results showed that, during the pandemic, 27% of participants decreased their physical activity, 26.3% increased intake of unhealthy snacks, 25.7% experienced increased sleep problems. Also, 58.7% had less contact with family, 40.4% experienced loneliness, 24.7% experienced worsening of memory, and 26.8% rated their health worse than before the pandemic. On the other hand, the reported increase in consumption of vegetables and fruits was 14.1% and 15.7%, respectively, and 65.2% of people had increased the use of digital services to keep in contact with family and friends. Also, 2.6% of participants decreased smoking, and 11.2% reduced their alcohol consumption. The occurrence of chronic vascular and metabolic diseases and related disruption in access to healthcare is presented in Table 1.ConclusionThe COVID‐19 pandemic has had an effect on modifiable factors for AD and dementia in Swedish older adults. These changes can affect future AD/dementia occurrence and should be addressed in forthcoming interventions for AD/dementia risk reduction and prevention. The survey can also be used for pre‐screening participants for prevention trials.

Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN

ObjectiveColorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies....

Investigating the early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on modifiable risk factors for cancer and chronic disease: a repeated cross-sectional study in Alberta, Canada

ObjectivesThis study contributes to empirical evidence by examining the impact of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic on modifiable risk factors (MRF) and whether these patterns differ according to level of material deprivation among people living in Alberta.MethodsUsing data from a repeated cross-sectional provincial health survey (Alberta Community Health Survey (ACHS): 2018–2021), we conducted logistic regression analyses examining the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on meeting national guidelines on four MRFs (tobacco use, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, alcohol use) (n=11,249). We compared population-level changes in MRFs from one year before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2019–February 2020) to one year during the pandemic (March 2020–February 2021) in Alberta. We also assessed whether these trends differed by a measure of material deprivation.ResultsCompared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the fully adjusted odds of meeting recommended guidelines for fruit and vegetable consumption (OR=0.42) decreased during the pandemic. Individuals experiencing high material deprivation had lower odds of meeting recommended guidelines for physical activity (OR=0.65) and higher odds of not being current tobacco users (OR=1.36) during the pandemic versus during the pre-pandemic period.ConclusionAt a population level, analyses from the ACHS showed minimal impacts of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic on MRFs, besides fruit and vegetable consumption. Yet, stratifying results showed statistically significant differences in pandemic impacts on MRFs by level of material deprivation. Therefore, understanding the influence of material deprivation on MRFs during the pandemic is key to tailoring future public health interventions promoting health and preventing cancer and chronic disease.

Analysing the impact of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil.

We have examined the impact of changes in modifiable risk factors on CVD mortality in 26 Brazilian states from 2005 to 2017. Data were acquired from the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) and official sources of the Brazilian government, totalling 312 state-year observations. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to determine the number of deaths attributed to changes in each risk factor. Fixed-effects multivariable linear regression models were performed, adjusting for income, income inequality, poverty and access to healthcare. Between 2005 and 2017, CVD deaths reduced by 21.42%, accompanied by a decrease in smoking (-33%) and increases in hyperglycaemia (+9.5%), obesity (+31%) and dyslipidaemia (+5.2%). Reduction in smoking prevented or postponed almost 20,000 CVD deaths in this period, while increased hyperglycaemia exposure resulted in more than 6,000 CVD deaths. The association between hyperglycaemia and CVD mortality was 5 to 10 times higher than those found for other risk factors, especially in women (11; 95%CI 7 to 14, deaths per 1-point increase in hyperglycaemia exposure). Importantly, the association between hyperglycaemia and CVD mortality was independent of socioeconomic status and access to healthcare, while associations for other risk factors after the same adjustments. Reduction in smoking was the risk factor that led to the highest number of CVD deaths prevented or postponed, while hyperglycaemia showed the most deleterious association with CVD mortality. Health policies should aim to directly reduce the prevalence of hyperglycaemia to mitigate the population burden of CVD in Brazil in the future.

Changes in Brain-Health Related Modifiable Risk Factors in Older Adults After One Year of COVID-19-Restrictions.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has major influence on lifestyle and mental health, which might affect brain-health and increase the risk of cognitive decline, particularly in older adults. We aimed to describe changes in modifiable risk factors related to brain-health in older adults after one year of COVID-19 restrictions.MethodsAn online survey was disseminated between February and March 2021 to 17,773 registrants of the Dutch Brain Research Registry, aged ≥50, without a self-reported diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Participants were asked to report potential changes in behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic, in eight domains related to brain health: physical activity, sleep, feeling of memory decline, perceived stress, feeling of loneliness, diet, alcohol consumption, and smoking. We used negative binomial regression analyses to relate (socio)demographics, subjective memory complaints and COVID-19 related aspects (fear of, or current/past COVID-19 infection) to the number of reported detrimental and beneficial changes as dependent variable.Results3,943 participants (66 ± 8 years old; 76% female; 71% highly educated) completed the survey. After one year of COVID-19-restrictions, 74% reported at least one detrimental lifestyle change unfavorable for their brain health, most frequently reported were feelings of loneliness, sleep problems, and less physical activity. 60% of participants reported at least one beneficial change, which were most often more physical activity, healthier dietary habits, and less alcohol consumption. Individuals who are younger [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.98–0.99], female (1.20, 1.11–1.30), living alone (1.20, 1.11–1.28) and in urban environments (1.18, 1.08–1.29), who are less satisfied with their income (1.38, 1.17–1.62), experiencing subjective memory complaints (1.40, 1.28–1.52) and those with a past or current (1.19, 1.06–1.34) or fear of a COVID-19 infection (1.33, 1.25–1.42) reported higher numbers of detrimental changes.DiscussionThe COVID-19 pandemic has influenced lifestyle in both positive and negative ways. We identified (socio)demographic factors associated with more detrimental changes in modifiable risk factors related to brain health, suggesting that some individuals are more vulnerable for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings provide an opportunity for targeted prevention and education to promote a healthy lifestyle during and after the pandemic.

Effect of a Lifestyle-Focused Web-Based Application on Risk Factor Management in Patients Who Have Had a Myocardial Infarction: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BackgroundCardiac rehabilitation is central in reducing mortality and morbidity after myocardial infarction. However, the fulfillment of guideline-recommended cardiac rehabilitation targets is unsatisfactory. eHealth offers new possibilities to improve clinical care.ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the effect of a web-based application designed to support adherence to lifestyle advice and self-control of risk factors (intervention) in addition to center-based cardiac rehabilitation, compared with cardiac rehabilitation only (usual care).MethodsAll 150 patients participated in cardiac rehabilitation. Patients randomized to the intervention group (n=101) received access to the application for 25 weeks where information about lifestyle (eg, diet and physical activity), risk factors (eg, weight and blood pressure [BP]), and symptoms could be registered. The software provided feedback and lifestyle advice. The primary outcome was a change in submaximal exercise capacity (Watts [W]) between follow-up visits. Secondary outcomes included changes in modifiable risk factors between baseline and follow-up visits and uptake and adherence to the application. Regression analysis was used, adjusting for relevant baseline variables.ResultsThere was a nonsignificant trend toward a larger change in exercise capacity in the intervention group (n=66) compared with the usual care group (n=40; +14.4, SD 19.0 W, vs +10.3, SD 16.1 W; P=.22). Patients in the intervention group achieved significantly larger BP reduction compared with usual care patients at 2 weeks (systolic −27.7 vs −16.4 mm Hg; P=.006) and at 6 to 10 weeks (systolic −25.3 vs −16.4 mm Hg; P=.02, and diastolic −13.4 vs −9.1 mm Hg; P=.05). A healthy diet index score improved significantly more between baseline and the 2-week follow-up in the intervention group (+2.3 vs +1.4 points; P=.05), mostly owing to an increase in the consumption of fish and fruit. At 6 to 10 weeks, 64% (14/22) versus 46% (5/11) of smokers in the intervention versus usual care groups had quit smoking, and at 12 to 14 months, the respective percentages were 55% (12/22) versus 36% (4/11). However, the number of smokers in the study was low (33/149, 21.9%), and the differences were nonsignificant. Attendance in cardiac rehabilitation was high, with 96% (96/100) of patients in the intervention group and 98% (48/49) of patients receiving usual care only attending 12- to 14-month follow-up. Uptake (logging data in the application at least once) was 86.1% (87/101). Adherence (logging data at least twice weekly) was 91% (79/87) in week 1 and 56% (49/87) in week 25.ConclusionsComplementing cardiac rehabilitation with a web-based application improved BP and dietary habits during the first months after myocardial infarction. A nonsignificant tendency toward better exercise capacity and higher smoking cessation rates was observed. Although the study group was small, these positive trends support further development of eHealth in cardiac rehabilitation.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03260582; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03260582International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR2-10.1186/s13063-018-3118-1

Metabolic syndrome and its association with changes in modifiable risk factors: Epifloripa aging study.

To estimate the prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) and its association with changes in modifiable risk factors in older adults from southern Brazil. A longitudinal study was performed with data from EpiFloripa Aging study. We defined MetS by the existence of three or more of the following risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD): waist circumference (WC) (≥ 92cm in men and ≥ 87cm in women); fasting glucose (≥100mg/dl); decreased HDL cholesterol (<40mg/dl in men and <50mg/dl in women); hypertriglyceridemia (≥150mg/dl) and blood pressure (≥130/85mmHg). We evaluated the changes in modifiable risk factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and body mass index) between the two moments of the study (2009/10 and 2013/14). Directed acyclic graph and logistic regression models were used. Among the 599 participants, the prevalence of MetS was 64.0% (95% CI, 58.7-68.9). In the adjusted analysis, those who remained or became persons who are overweight (OR = 4.59; 95% CI: 3.05-6.89) and those who remained or became insufficiently active (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.23-2.98) were more likely to present MetS. Our findings suggest that being or becoming overweight and being or becoming insufficiently active are modifiable factors associated with MetS. These results highlight the need for developing preventive strategies for the observed risk indicators to mitigate the prevalence of MetS in older adults.

An individualized systems model to optimize Alzheimer’s disease prevention strategies

AbstractBackgroundA large number of biopsychosocial factors are implicated in the prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). These factors are not independent causes but part of a complex causal network that underlies the condition. Computational models that would capture this system‐wide multicausality could help identify causal pathways and inform multifactorial prevention strategies.MethodWe developed a system dynamics model (SDM) from a causal loop diagram that was parameterized using empirical data from multiple cohorts (including the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative). The SDM contains over 20 known risk factors and pathophysiological processes, including blood pressure, smoking, neuronal dysfunction, and amyloid‐beta and phosphorylated tau burden. We simulated 5‐year cognitive decline trajectories for individuals and explored several “what if” scenarios regarding the effect of changes in modifiable risk factors on cognitive decline.ResultOur SDM was able to simulate the cognitive decline trajectories of individuals with good accuracy (&lt; 20% mean absolute percentage error). These predictions also generalized well to an independent test sample from the same data set (&lt;2% error increase). The effect of changes in modifiable risk factors on cognitive decline in the SDM were checked against literature reported ranges. We also developed a workflow to further calibrate and validate the SDM.ConclusionOur SDM demonstrates the feasibility of system‐wide modelling approaches for AD prevention. Such a simulation model could eventually be used to better understand the interactive effects of modifiable risk factors on AD pathophysiology and help optimize individualized prevention strategies.

Validation and improvement of a highly predictive bariatric surgery mortality risk calculator to include sleeve gastrectomy using MBSAQIP 2015-2017 data.

Initial development of a prominent bariatric surgery mortality risk calculator comprising cases that now account for <10% of commonly performed operations. Whether the previously highly predictive model is valid with more recent data is unknown. To validate and improve a bariatric-surgery-specific mortality calculator with updated case mix and outcomes data. Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program-accredited bariatric surgery programs. The Metabolic and Bariatric Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program Participant Use File from years 2015 to 2017 was used for the analysis. C-statistics were calculated with observed death as the outcome and estimated 30-day mortality risk as the only predictor and receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted. Similar analyses were repeated for each body mass index (BMI) subgroup. Backward selection logistic regression was used to investigate the potential of improving the robustness of the model. Patients were predominantly female (n = 446,149, 80.4%) and white (n = 409,350, 73.7%) with a mean (standard deviation) age of 45.4 (12.0) years and BMI of 44.5 (8.4) kg/m2, and the most commonly performed operation was sleeve gastrectomy (n = 338,061, 60.9%). Assessing previous model using present data, area under the curve was .7412. By BMI subgroup, area under the curve for BMI <45 kg/m2 was .7645, for BMI 45 to 60 kg/m2 was .7586, and for BMI >60 kg/m2 was .6576. The present study found that the model previously developed maintains discrimination with changing surgical procedures. Though variables in the initial calculator are helpful, additional factors should be considered when weighing risk, such as sex, previous surgery, and renal function. Future studies are needed to determine whether changes in modifiable risk factors will impact mortality rates.

Tracking of secretory phospholipase A2 enzyme activity levels from childhood to adulthood: a 21‐year cohort

ObjectiveSecretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) enzyme activity is a potential inflammatory biomarker for cardiovascular disease. We examined the tracking, or persistence, of sPLA2 enzyme activity levels from childhood to adulthood, and identify potentially modifiable factors affecting tracking. MethodProspective cohort of 1735 children (45% females) who had serum sPLA2 enzyme activity levels and other cardiovascular disease risk factors measured in 1980 that were followed‐up in 2001. ResultssPLA2 activity tracked from childhood to adulthood for males (r=0.39) and females (r=0.45). Those who decreased body mass index relative to their peers were more likely to resolve elevated childhood sPLA2 levels than have persistent elevated sPLA2 levels in childhood and adulthood. Those who consumed less fruit, and gained more body mass index relative to their peers, began smoking or were a persistent smoker between childhood and adulthood were more likely to develop incident elevated sPLA2 levels than those with persistent not elevated sPLA2 levels. ConclusionsChildhood sPLA2 enzyme activity levels associate with adult sPLA2 levels 21 years later. Healthful changes in modifiable risk factors that occur between childhood and adulthood might prevent children from developing elevated sPLA2 levels in adulthood.

Long term outcomes of cluster randomized trial to improve cardiovascular health at population level: The Cardiovascular Health Awareness Program (CHAP).

Study questionThe Cardiovascular Health Awareness Program (CHAP) cardiovascular risk reduction program consisted of sessions run by local volunteers in local pharmacies during which cardiovascular risk was assessed, healthy lifestyle and preventive care was promoted, and the participants were oriented to local resources to support changes in modifiable risk factors. A clustered randomized trial implemented in September 2006 across 39 communities targeting community-dwelling individuals 65 years and older showed a significant reduction in hospitalization one year after its implementation (rate ratio of 91 [95% confidence interval (CI): 86%-97%]). This study explores the impact of CHAP in the first five years.MethodsUsing health administrative data housed at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, we established a closed cohort consisting of all individuals eligible in these communities at the study onset whom we followed over time. We assessed hospitalizations and survival using a negative binomial model for count data and Cox regression to assess time to first event, accounting for the clustered design. The primary outcome was the rate of cardiovascular-related hospitalizations defined as congestive heart failure, stroke or acute myocardial infarction.ResultsMost estimates pointed to an advantage for the intervention arm, but only all-cause mortality reached statistical significance (hazard ratio [95% CI] = 0.955 [0.914–0.999]). The hospitalization cardiovascular-related hospitalization rate ratio was (0.958, 95% CI: 0.898–1.022) in favour of the intervention communities, translating to an estimated 408 averted hospitalizations over the five-year period. There was no evidence of the effect of time from start of intervention.ConclusionsThe consistent direction of the outcomes in favour of the intervention arms suggests that CHAP likely had a meaningful impact on reducing cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality. Given the low cost of the intervention, further development of CHAP should be pursued.

Unfavorable and favorable changes in modifiable risk factors and incidence of coronary heart disease: The Whitehall II cohort study

BackgroundFew studies have examined long-term associations of unfavorable and favorable changes in vascular risk factors with incident coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined this issue in a middle-aged disease-free population. MethodsWe used repeat data from the Whitehall II cohort study. Five biomedical, behavioral and psychosocial examinations of 8335 participants without CHD produced up to 20,357 person-observations to mimic a non-randomized pseudo-trial. After measurement of potential change in 6 risk factors twice (total cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, overweight, psychological distress, problems in social relationships), a 5-year follow-up of CHD was undertaken. ResultsIncidence of CHD was 7.4/1000 person-years. Increases from normal to high cholesterol (hazard ratio, HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.26–2.00) and from normal to high blood pressure (HR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.33–2.03), as compared to remaining at the normal level, were associated with increased risk of CHD. In contrast, decreases from high to low levels of cholesterol (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.58–0.91), psychological distress (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.51–0.90), and problems in social relationships (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.50–0.85), and quitting smoking (HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.29–0.82) were associated with a reduced CHD risk compared to remaining at high risk factor levels. The highest absolute risk was associated with persistent exposure to both high cholesterol and hypertension (incidence 18.1/1000 person-years) and smoking and overweight (incidence 17.7/1000 person-years). ConclusionsWhile persistent exposures and changes in biological and behavioral risk factors relate to the greatest increases and reductions in 5-year risk of CHD, also favorable changes in psychosocial risk factors appear to reduce CHD risk.

Tracking of secretory phospholipase A2 enzyme activity levels from childhood to adulthood: a 21-year cohort

ObjectiveSecretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) enzyme activity is a potential inflammatory biomarker for cardiovascular disease. We examined the tracking, or persistence, of sPLA2 enzyme activity levels from childhood to adulthood, and identify potentially modifiable factors affecting tracking. MethodProspective cohort of 1735 children (45% females) who had serum sPLA2 enzyme activity levels and other cardiovascular disease risk factors measured in 1980 that were followed-up in 2001. ResultssPLA2 activity tracked from childhood to adulthood for males (r=0.39) and females (r=0.45). Those who decreased body mass index relative to their peers were more likely to resolve elevated childhood sPLA2 levels than have persistent elevated sPLA2 levels in childhood and adulthood. Those who consumed less fruit, and gained more body mass index relative to their peers, began smoking or were a persistent smoker between childhood and adulthood were more likely to develop incident elevated sPLA2 levels than those with persistent not elevated sPLA2 levels. ConclusionsChildhood sPLA2 enzyme activity levels associate with adult sPLA2 levels 21 years later. Healthful changes in modifiable risk factors that occur between childhood and adulthood might prevent children from developing elevated sPLA2 levels in adulthood.

Modifiable Risk Factors Versus Age on Developing High Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Blacks.

BackgroundClinical guidelines recommend using predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. The objective was to compare the contribution of changes in modifiable risk factors versus aging to the development of high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk.Methods and ResultsA prospective follow‐up was done of the Jackson Heart Study, an exclusively black cohort at visit 1 (2000–2004) and visit 3 (2009–2012). Analyses included 1115 black participants without high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk (<7.5%), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or ASCVD at visit 1. We used the Pooled Cohort equations to calculate the incidence of high (≥7.5%) 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3. We recalculated the percentage with high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 assuming each risk factor (age, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, smoking, total and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol), one at a time, did not change from visit 1. The mean age at visit 1 was 45.2±9.5 years. Overall, 30.9% (95% CI 28.3–33.4%) of participants developed high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk. Aging accounted for 59.7% (95% CI 54.2–65.1%) of the development of high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk compared with 32.8% (95% CI 27.0–38.2%) for increases in systolic blood pressure or antihypertensive medication initiation and 12.8% (95% CI 9.6–16.5%) for incident diabetes mellitus. Among participants <50 years, the contribution of increases in systolic blood pressure or antihypertensive medication initiation was similar to aging.ConclusionsIncreases in systolic blood pressure and antihypertensive medication initiation are major contributors to the development of high 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk in blacks, particularly among younger adults.

Abstract A43: Population attributable risk of postmenopausal breast cancer according to known and modifiable breast cancer risk factors

Abstract Introduction: Multiple risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer are well established. We aimed to determine the proportion of breast cancers in the population that are attributable to established risk factors, and to different combinations of risk factors, to better understand the proportion of breast cancer which could be prevented by changes in modifiable risk factors. Methods: We used data from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), an ongoing prospective study of 121,700 US nurses initiated in 1976. Information on breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer diagnosis is collected every two years through mailed questionnaires. Follow-up for this cohort of women through 2008 has been greater than 90%. The analysis was restricted to postmenopausal women. Relative risks and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated by Cox models stratified by calendar year and age in months at the time of each questionnaire return using the counting process data structure to facilitate the incorporation of time-varying covariates. We included the following established breast cancer risk factors in the analyses: age, age at menarche, height, age at first birth/parity, current adult BMI/weight change since age 18, alcohol consumption, physical activity, breast feeding, menopausal hormone therapy, family history of breast cancer, and prior benign breast disease. Full and partial population attributable risk percents (PARs) were calculated. We conducted analyses for total invasive breast cancer, estrogen receptor (ER)+, and ER- breast cancer. Results: Over the course of follow-up, 8,421 postmenopausal invasive breast cancer cases developed over 2,424,778 person years between 1980 and 2008. As expected, earlier age at menarche, increasing weight gain since age 18, increasing alcohol consumption, current use of menopausal hormones, and being tall were all significantly positively associated with risk of breast cancer in multivariate models. Because age has a large influence on the risk of breast cancer we estimated the PAR both with and without age. When all of the risk factor variables except for age were include in the model the PAR for all invasive breast cancers was 0.62 (95% CI 0.46-0.75). Thus, if women could change to the lowest risk category for all of the variables considered, the number of invasive breast cancers would be reduced by 62%. In models that additionally included age, the PAR was 0.92 (95%CI 0.76-0.97) for total invasive and 0.95 (95%CI 0.75-0.99) for ER+ breast cancer and 0.86 (95%CI 0.21-0.98) for ER- breast cancer. However, because many of the risk factors considered are not easily modifiable, we also examined more readily modifiable risk factors singly and in combinations. The risk factor with the largest PAR, was BMI/weight gain since age 18 (PAR=0.24(95%CI 0.13-0.34)). Reproductive risk factors such as age at first birth/parity (PAR=0.10 (95%CI 0.07-0.14)) and age at menarche (PAR=0.08 (95%CI 0.03-0.12)) also had modest impact on the PAR, both of which were higher for ER+ breast cancer than ER- breast cancer. When considering all of the modifiable risk factors together we found that changing one's risk factor profile to have the lowest weight gain, no alcohol consumption, high physical activity, breast feeding and no hormone use was associated with a PAR of 0.38 (95%CI 0.23-0.52) for overall invasive breast cancer. Conclusion: The established breast cancer risk factors explain a large proportion of both ER+ and ER- postmenopausal breast cancers in the population. The most important modifiable risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer prevention is maintaining a healthy weight. Citation Format: Rulla M. Tamimi, Molin Wang, Mathew Pazzaris, Stephanie A. Smith-Warner, Walter C. Willett, A. Heather Eliassen, Donna Spiegelman, David J. Hunter. Population attributable risk of postmenopausal breast cancer according to known and modifiable breast cancer risk factors. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Cancer Prevention Research; 2014 Sep 27-Oct 1; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2015;8(10 Suppl): Abstract nr A43.

Conocimiento del riesgo de presentar un infarto de miocardio y las barreras para el acceso al estilo de vida saludable

IntroductionThe lack of information about cardiovascular risk factors is an element that increases their prevalence in our community. ObjectiveTo identify the knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors and barriers for their modification in a population of men and women of Medellin, Colombia. MethodologyA descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted including the population that assisted to the world heart day event. Anthropometric variables, vital signs and blood glucometry were performed. People were asked about their knowledge of the main cause of dead in Colombia and worldwide, their intention to implement changes in their lifestyle and the barriers to implement it. A bivariate analysis was performed by sex. Results1,324 adults were included; 46 vs. 41.4% of men and women identified coronary heart disease as the first cause of dead worldwide and in Colombia. The majority of men and women talk about their interest in changing their life style (91.8 vs. 94.5% p=.07). Lack of time was identified as the leading barrier to access a healthy lifestyle. 2.2% of men and 2.6% of women didn’t know how to start a healthy lifestyle. ConclusionThere is a poor recognition of coronary heart disease as a cause of dead, especially in women; lack of time and economical factors are the main barrier to implement changes in modifiable risk factors.

Lifestyle and weight predictors of a healthy overweight profile over a 20-year follow-up.

To examine whether changes in modifiable risk factors [physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), body weight, and diet composition] are associated with the transition to metabolically healthy overweight/obese (MHOW) versus metabolically abnormal overweight/obese. Analysis included 1,358 adults [aged 25.0 (3.5) years] from the CARDIA study who were healthy at baseline and had overweight/obesity at follow-up. Participants with zero or one of the following six risk factors were classified as MHOW: elevated triglycerides, LDL, blood pressure, fasting glucose, and HOMA-insulin resistance and low HDL. Over the 20-year follow-up, the sample gained weight (BMI 24.5 to 31.1 kg/m(2) ), and the prevalence of MHOW was 47% at follow-up. After adjusting for changes in CRF, diet, and weight change, physical activity and macronutrient intake were not independently associated with MHOW (P > 0.05), while changes in CRF [fit-unfit: RR (95%) = 0.58, 0.52-0.66; unfit-unfit: RR = 0.67, 0.58-0.76, versus fit-fit] and weight [gain: RR (95%) = 0.54, 0.43-0.67; cycle: RR = 0.74, 0.57-0.94, versus stable] were independently associated with MHOW. Focusing on high CRF and strategies to limit weight gain may be important for individuals with overweight and obesity in early to mid-adulthood to maintain a metabolically healthy profile.