Changes In Health Care Expenditures Research Articles

Churn in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Changes in Medicaid Expenditure and Acute Care Utilization.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides financial assistance to low-income individuals and families to help them purchase food. However, when participants experience short-term disenrollment from the program, known as churn, it can disrupt their health care usage patterns or result in acute health care needs due to the loss of financial benefits and time burden required to reapply for SNAP. The objective of this study was to examine the changes in health care expenditures and acute care utilization during periods of SNAP churn compared with nonchurn periods among those who churn during the study period. Longitudinal analysis of Pennsylvania Medicaid claims data for enrollees participating in SNAP between 2016 and 2018 using individual fixed-effects models. We add to the literature by estimating whether these changes varied based on the amount of SNAP benefit lost, or differed between adults and children. We found that SNAP churn was associated with reductions in pharmacy and primary care spending across all SNAP benefit levels and age groups. Specifically, our findings indicate a reduction of 4%-6% in pharmacy expenditures for adults and 2%-4% for children. Moreover, there was a 3%-4% decrease in primary care expenditures for adults and a 4%-6% decrease for children. Acute care utilization did not significantly change during a SNAP churn period. Our findings of decreases in pharmacy and primary care spending suggest that preventing SNAP churn may help reduce instances where adult and child participants forgo necessary care.

Sex differences in health care expenditures and mortality after spousal bereavement: A register-based Danish cohort study.

Spousal bereavement is a life event that affects older people differently. We investigated the impact of spousal bereavement on medical expenditures and mortality in the general population, emphasizing on age and sex. Data are from a population-based, retrospective cohort study following 924,958 Danish citizens over the age of 65 years, within 2011-2016. Changes in health care expenditures in those who suffer bereavement were compared with time matched changes among those who did not. Mortality hazards were analysed with time to event analysis. A total of 77,722 (~8.4%) individuals experienced bereavement, 65.8% being females. Among males, bereavement was associated with increase of expenditures the year after, that was 42 Euros per week (95% CI, 36 to 48) larger than the non-bereaved group. The corresponding increase for females was 35 Euros per week (95% CI, 30 to 40). The increase of mortality hazards was highest in the first year after bereavement, higher in males than females, in young old and almost absent in the oldest old. Compared with the reference, mortality the year after spousal loss was 70% higher (HR 1.70 [95% CI 1.40 to 2.08]) for males aged 65-69 years and remained elevated for a period of six years. Mortality for females aged 65-69 years was 27% higher in the first year (HR 1.27, [1.07 to 1.52]), normalizing thereafter. Bereavement affects older people differently with younger males being most frail with limited recovery potential.

Contemporary Incremental Healthcare Costs for Allergic Rhinitis in the United States.

Describe contemporary changes in healthcare expenditure and utilization associated with allergic rhinitis (AR) over the past decade. Cross-sectional analysis. Patients reporting a diagnosis of AR were extracted from the 2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and linked to the consolidated expenditures file. AR patients were then compared to non-AR patients to demonstrate differences in healthcare utilization for office visits, emergency facility visits, and prescriptions. In addition, differences in total healthcare costs, office-based costs, and prescription costs were calculated, using demographic- and comorbidity-adjusted multivariate models. Results were compared to those obtained in 2007. In 2018, an estimated 1.94 ± 0.2 million adult patients reported AR (0.8% of the US population receiving medical care), a 90% decrease from the 17.8 ± 0.7 million patients seen in a formal healthcare setting for AR in 2007 (7.9%). AR patients still formally seen in 2018 had an average of 4.4 ± 1.3 more office visits (P= .001) and 9.7 ± 2.2 more prescription fills (P< .001) than non-AR patients. In contrast to the 2007 findings, there was no difference in total health care expenditure per person with AR per year. When comparing total healthcare expenditure between 2018 and 2007, there was a net decrease of $1,176 per person with AR per year (P< .01). Patients reporting AR in a formal healthcare encounter fell significantly over the past decade, and per-person expenditure associated with an AR diagnosis also decreased significantly. The transition of nasal corticosteroids to over-the-counter was potentially a key driver behind these changes. 3 Laryngoscope, 132:1510-1514, 2022.

Changes in chronic medication adherence, costs, and health care use after a cancer diagnosis among low-income patients and the role of patient-centered medical homes.

Approximately 40% of patients with cancer also have another chronic medical condition. Patient-centered medical homes (PCMHs) have improved outcomes among patients with multiple chronic comorbidities. The authors first evaluated the impact of a cancer diagnosis on chronic medication adherence among patients with Medicaid coverage and, second, whether PCMHs influenced outcomes among patients with cancer. Using linked 2004 to 2010 North Carolina cancer registry and claims data, the authors included Medicaid enrollees who were diagnosed with breast, colorectal, or lung cancer who had hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and/or diabetes mellitus. Using difference-in-difference methods, the authors examined adherence to chronic disease medications as measured by the change in the percentage of days covered over time among patients with and without cancer. The authors then further evaluated whether PCMH enrollment modified the observed differences between those patients with and without cancer using a differences-in-differences-in-differences approach. The authors examined changes in health care expenditures and use as secondary outcomes. Patients newly diagnosed with cancer who had hyperlipidemia experienced a 7-percentage point to 11-percentage point decrease in the percentage of days covered compared with patients without cancer. Patients with cancer also experienced significant increases in medical expenditures and hospitalizations compared with noncancer controls. Changes in medication adherence over time between patients with and without cancer were not determined to be statistically significantly different by PCMH status. Some PCMH patients with cancer experienced smaller increases in expenditures (diabetes) and emergency department use (hyperlipidemia) but larger increases in their inpatient hospitalization rates (hypertension) compared with non-PCMH patients with cancer relative to patients without cancer. PCMHs were not found to be associated with improvements in chronic disease medication adherence, but were associated with lower costs and emergency department visits among some low-income patients with cancer.

Are Certain Health Centers Better Patient-Centered Medical Homes for People with Severe Mental Illness?

Patient-centered medical homes based at federally-qualified health centers (FQHCs) can benefit patients with complex health needs, such as severe mental illness (SMI). However, little is known about FQHC characteristics associated with changes in health care expenditures and utilization for individuals with SMI. Using North Carolina Medicaid claims and FQHC data from the Uniform Data System, multivariate regression identified FQHC characteristics associated with total expenditures, medication adherence and emergency department utilization among adults with SMI, controlling for time-invariant differences by health center. Few of the FQHC-level factors affected the outcomes-not even offering on-site behavioral health services. Although the FQHCs in the analysis sample exhibited considerable variation in the provision of specialty behavioral services and in staffing configurations, it may be the case that the examination of average effects across a heterogeneous group of adults with SMI mask benefits of FQHCs to certain subgroups. These findings support the conclusion that there is no "one-size-fits-all" model that works best for this diverse patient population. Study results are relevant for practices embarking on expanded medical home services for people with SMI.

Health Opportunity Costs: Assessing the Implications of Uncertainty Using Elicitation Methods with Experts.

Well-established methods of economic evaluation are used in many countries to inform decisions about the funding of new medical interventions. To guide such decisions, it is important to consider what health gains would be expected from the same level of investment elsewhere in the health care system. Recent research in the United Kingdom has evaluated the evidence available and the methods required to estimate the health effects of changes in health care expenditure within the National Health Service. Because of the absence of sufficiently broad-ranging data, assumptions were required in the previously mentioned work to estimate health effects in terms of a broader measure of health (quality-adjusted life-years), which is more relevant for policy. These assumptions constitute important sources of uncertainty. This work presents an application of the structured elicitation of the judgments of key individuals about these uncertain quantities. This article describes the design and conduct of the exercise, including the quantities elicited, the individual (rather than consensus) approach used, how uncertainty in knowledge was elicited (mode and bounds of an 80% credible interval), and methods to generate group estimates. It also reports on a successful application involving 28 clinical experts and 25 individuals with policy responsibilities. Although, as expected, most experts found replying to the questions challenging, they were able to express their beliefs quantitatively. Consistent across the uncertainties elicited, experts’ judgments suggest that the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) impacts of changes in expenditure from earlier work using assumptions are likely to have been underestimated and the “central” estimate of health opportunity cost from that work (£12,936 per QALY) to have been overestimated.

Estimating Social Variation in the Health Effects of Changes in Health Care Expenditure.

Background. A common aim of health expenditure is to reduce unfair inequalities in health. Although previous research has attempted to estimate the total health effects of changes in health expenditure, little is known about how changes affect different groups in the population. Methods. We propose a general framework for disaggregating the total health effects of changes in health expenditure by social groups. This can be performed indirectly when the estimate of the total health effect has first been disaggregated by a secondary factor (e.g., disease area) that can be linked to social characteristics. This is illustrated with an application to the English National Health Service. Evidence on the health effects of expenditure across 23 disease areas is combined with data on the distribution of disease-specific hospital utilization by age, sex, and area-level deprivation. Results. We find that the health effects from NHS expenditure changes are produced largely through disease areas in which individuals from more deprived areas account for a large share of health care utilization, namely, respiratory and neurologic disease and mental health. We estimate that 26% of the total health effect from a change in expenditure would accrue to the fifth of the population living in the most deprived areas, compared with 14% to the fifth living in the least deprived areas. Conclusions. Our approach can be useful for evaluating the health inequality impacts of changing health budgets or funding alternative health programs. However, it requires robust estimates of how health expenditure affects health outcomes. Our example analysis also relied on strong assumptions about the relationship between health care utilization and health effects across population groups.

Predictive validation and forecasts of short-term changes in healthcare expenditure associated with changes in smoking behavior in the United States.

ObjectivesOut-of-sample forecasts are used to evaluate the predictive adequacy of a previously published national model of the relationship between smoking behavior and real per capita health care expenditure using state level aggregate data. In the previously published analysis, the elasticities between changes in state adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker and healthcare expenditures were 0.118 and 0.108 This new analysis provides evidence that the model forecasts out-of-sample well.MethodsOut-of-sample predictive performance was used to find the best specification of trend variables and the best model to bridge a break in survey data used in the analysis. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate forecast intervals for the effect of changes in smoking behavior on expected real per capita healthcare expenditures.ResultsThe model specification produced good-out-of-sample forecasts and stable recursive regression parameter estimates spanning the break in survey methodology. In 2014, a 1% relative reduction in adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker decreased real per capita healthcare expenditure by 0.104% and 0.113% the following year, respectively (elasticity). A permanent relative reduction of 5% reduces expected real per capita healthcare expenditures $99 (95% CI $44, $154) in the next year and $31.5 billion for the entire US (in 2014 dollars), holding other factors constant. The reductions accumulate linearly for at least five years following annual permanent decreases of 5% each year. Given the limitations of time series modelling in a relatively short time series, the effect of changes in smoking behavior may occur over several years, even though the model contains only one lag for the explanatory variables.ConclusionReductions in smoking produce substantial savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure in short to medium term. A 5% relative drop in smoking prevalence (about a 0.87% reduction in absolute prevalence) combined with a 5% drop in consumption per remaining smoker (about 16 packs/year) would be followed by a $31.5 billion reduction in healthcare expenditure (in 2014 dollars).

Workplace wellness program and short-term changes in health care expenditures.

Workplace wellness programs are commonly offered by employers with the expectation that they will reduce health care costs. We previously reported that Be Fit, a 10-week wellness program offered to employees of a large teaching hospital and geared towards improving nutrition and physical activity, led to improvements in weight, serum cholesterol, and blood pressure at program completion and 1-year follow-up. In the present study we assessed whether Be Fit participation was associated with reduced health expenditures by employing a difference-in-differences analysis of claims data for 289 employees who participated in Be Fit between 2010 and 2014 and 194 controls from the same parent company matched on sex, age, health risk score, and baseline health expenditures. We compared changes in expenditures from the year prior to Be Fit participation to the year after initiating participation. We did not observe any inflection in health care expenditures at the time of Be Fit participation for participants or matched controls. After adjusting for matching characteristics, changes in quarterly health expenditures were $236 lower for participants compared to controls (95% CI −$640 to $168). We similarly found no evidence of reduced health expenditures when expenditures were capped at the 99th percentile (excluding the impact of outliers) or limited to expenditures for cardiovascular disease or diabetes. Despite improvements in clinical risk factors, we find no evidence that Be Fit was associated with reduced health expenditures over 1-year follow-up. Reducing health expenditures may require a longer time horizon and programs targeting a broader set of risk factors.

Determination of a willingness-to-pay threshold and decision-making in financing the healthcare technologies

The aim was to develop a methodology for determining the willingness to pay threshold (WTPT) and its upper limit value within the Russian health care system.Materials and methods. WTPT was calculated based on the shadow budget price (i. e. determining the WTPT by the suppling party). This method is an empirical assessment of the cost-effectiveness threshold that reflects the utmost productivity of the health care system, as determined from the relationship between changes in healthcare expenditure and health outcomes achieved. The state’s willingness to pay for improving their citizens’ healthcare was evaluated considering the population of the Russian Federation, mortality and life expectancy in different age and gender groups, as well as the volume of government spending. The cost of disability-adjusted life-year prevented (DALY) and the cost of quality-adjusted life-year saved (QALY) were determined by the suppling party, that is, they reflect the cost the state is willing to pay for improving the health of their population under conditions of limited budget. The described approach considers the performance of the country’s healthcare system over a certain period and the costs incurred in functioning of the system.Results. As part of this study, it was found that the cost of one additionally prevented DALY would be 313,878.21 rubles, and the cost of one additionally saved QALY – 365,060.31 rubles.Conclusion. The WTPT for medical technologies in the Russian Federation, determined by estimating the shadow budget price will amount to 313,878.21 rubles for one prevented DALY and 365 060,31 rubles for one saved QALY. With regard to clinical and economic analysis, medical technologies with the incremental cost-effectiveness indicator not exceeding the one calculated in this study can be seen as cost-effective. The obtained threshold value is a recommendation. A medical technology can be approved even with a WTPT higher than the recommended level, because this specific technology may have additional advantages other than WTPT when compared with the reference technologies.

Changes in healthcare expenditures after the autism insurance mandate

BackgroundIn recent years, most U.S. states have passed autism mandates requiring private insurers to cover autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Little is known about the post-mandate changes in healthcare expenditures. MethodThis study utilized 2006–2012 de-identified insurance claims data from the largest private insurer in Pennsylvania (PA), where the mandate went into effect in mid 2009. Healthcare expenditures were defined as the amount the insurer paid for healthcare services and were adjusted to 2012 price level. A mixed effects model was used to analyze the expenditures. ResultsA total of 9471 children with ASD were included. Although the pre-mandate total expenditures per child with ASD were similar, the post-mandate expenditures significantly increased for groups subject to the autism mandate (87% increase from $7754 in 2008 to $14,486 in 2010) compared to the exempt groups (27% increase from $7238 to $9171). By insurance type, the change from 2008 to 2010 in ASD-related expenditures per child with ASD was $8439 for fully insured large employer sponsored plans and $43 for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), both subject to the PA mandate; and $2631 for the self-insured, $980 for small-employers, and $-92 for individual plans, all of which are exempt from the mandate. These increases were due to outpatient services but not inpatient or drug costs. ConclusionsHealthcare expenditures increased significantly following the PA autism mandate. Nonexempt, large employer groups had the largest increase in spending. Some exempt, self-insured companies may have voluntarily covered ASD services, leading to a moderate increase.

Fiscal Space for Health Care: Modern Approaches to Formation and Diagnostics

In the article an analytical review of theoretical approaches to the definition of the fiscal space is conducted. The peculiarities of the interpretation of the essence of the fiscal space for financing the health care system in the contemporary economic researches are explored. It has been determined that fiscal space for the health care system is in fact one of the conceptual approaches for studying the optimal parameters and proportions of financing of the health care, as well as determining the potential reserves for its increase. Based on the study of foreign experience, it is substantiated that the main factors of fiscal space capacity building for health are: macroeconomic context; the need to ensure the fiscal sustainability in the medium and long-term; peculiarities of models of collection of financial resources, accumulation of financial resources and distribution of financing for the medical services; the priority of public financing of the health care system; the possibility of increasing public financing of health care and the introduction of additional mechanisms for increasing financial resources for health care. It is shown that the state can create fiscal space for financing health care system on the basis of three components: financial resources collection system; systems of accumulation of financial resources; system of distribution of financial resources for the provision of medical services to the population.&#x0D; The analysis of the structure and volume of public health financing in OECD countries has been conducted. The results of the analysis allow us to notice the existence of various proportions of financing the health care, even in the context of the use of identical dominant financing mechanisms. It is determined that among the studied countries the share of countries with the budget financing mechanism of health care is the largest. It is shown that financing of the health care system in Ukraine is considerably smaller than in the OECD countries. The necessity of diagnostics the potential of fiscal space for the health care in Ukraine is substantiated. The indicators of diagnostics of fiscal space for the health care system are systematized in four projections, in particular: indicators of macroeconomic potential; indicators of fiscal capacity; indicators of the pressure of changes in health care expenditures on the fiscal sustainability of; indicators of demographic and social pressure. The need to diagnostics of the potential for fiscal space for health care should be interconnected with indicators of medium and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Impact of Reducing Glycated Hemoglobin on Healthcare Costs Among a Population with Uncontrolled Diabetes.

Glycated hemoglobin (A1C) is considered a "gold standard" measure of glycemic control in patients with diabetes and is correlated with a lower risk of diabetes complications and cost savings. This retrospective claims-analysis assessed the impact of A1C reduction on healthcare costs in patients with uncontrolled Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Using a large repository of US health plan administrative data linked to A1C values, patients with a diabetes diagnosis and at least two A1C values between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2014 were selected to identify changes in A1C and associated changes in healthcare expenditure. We used all medical and pharmacy claims to calculate direct healthcare costs from 1 year prior to the index A1C to 2 years after the index A1C. A propensity score method was used to match patients with decreased A1C to patients whose A1C did not decrease, based on potentially confounding variables. Then, a generalized linear model regression was used to estimate the difference-in-difference (DD) effect on costs between the two groups. Of the 3,197 patients who had a first A1C ≥9%, 2,273 patients (71%) had a decrease in A1C (Decreasers) and 924 patients (27%) had an increase in A1C (Non-decreasers). After matching, we compared 912 Decreasers to 912 Non-decreasers. Patients in the former group had average annual healthcare costs that were 24% lower during the first year of follow-up and 17% lower during the second year of follow-up, compared to patients whose A1C did not decrease. This reflected a savings of US$2503 and US$1690, respectively. For both time periods, the outpatient category was the largest contributor to cost savings. In our analysis, A1C reduction among patients with T1DM and T2DM was associated with slower growth in healthcare costs within 1-2 years. These findings suggest that programs aimed at reducing A1C over a short timeframe may lead to substantial savings and may be worth pursuing by health plans and other payers.

Resolving the “Cost-Effective but Unaffordable” Paradox: Estimating the Health Opportunity Costs of Nonmarginal Budget Impacts

Considering whether or not a proposed investment (an intervention, technology, or program of care) is affordable is really asking whether the benefits it offers are greater than its opportunity cost. To say that an investment is cost-effective but not affordable must mean that the (implicit or explicit) “threshold” used to judge cost-effectiveness does not reflect the scale and value of the opportunity costs. Existing empirical estimates of health opportunity costs are based on cross-sectional variation in expenditure and mortality outcomes by program budget categories (PBCs) and do not reflect the likely effect of nonmarginal budget impacts on health opportunity costs.The UK Department of Health regularly updates the needs-based target allocation of resources to local areas of the National Health Service (NHS), creating two subgroups of local areas (those under target allocation and those over). These data provide the opportunity to explore how the effects of changes in health care expenditure differ with available resources. We use 2008–2009 data to evaluate two econometric approaches to estimation and explore a range of criteria for accepting subgroup specific effects for differences in expenditure and outcome elasticities across the 23 PBCs.Our results indicate that health opportunity costs arising from an investment imposing net increases in expenditure are underestimated unless account is taken of likely nonmarginal effects. They also indicate the benefits (reduced health opportunity costs or increased value-based price of a technology) of being able to “smooth” these nonmarginal budget impacts by health care systems borrowing against future budgets or from manufacturers offering “mortgage” type arrangements.

The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

This paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change (i.e. climate damages) to 2060. The analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts: changes in crop yields, loss of land and capital due to sea level rise, changes in fisheries catches, capital damages from hurricanes, labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress, changes in tourism flows, and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating. A multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth, including labour productivity, capital stocks and land supply, as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy, and on the economies of other countries. It uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change. The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains.

Two decades of change in European general practice service profiles: conditions associated with the developments in 28 countries between 1993 and 2012

Objective: Evidence regarding the benefits of strong primary care has influenced health policy and practice. This study focuses on changes in the breadth of services provided by general practitioners (GPs) in Europe between 1993 and 2012 and offers possible explanations for these changes. Design: Data on the breadth of service profiles were used from two cross-sectional surveys in 28 countries: the 1993 European GP Task Profile study (6321 GPs) and the 2012 QUALICOPC study (6044 GPs). GPs’ involvement in four areas of clinical activity (first contact care, treatment of diseases, medical procedures, and prevention) was established using ecometric analyses. The changes were measured by the relative increase in the breadth of service profiles. Associations between changes and national-level conditions were examined though regression analyses. Data on the national conditions were used from various other public databases including the World Databank and the PHAMEU (Primary Health care Activity Monitor) database. Setting: A total of 28 European countries. Subjects: GPs. Main outcome measure: Changes in the breadth of GP service profiles. Results: A general trend of increased involvement of European GPs in treatment of diseases and decreased involvement in preventive activities was observed. Conditions at the national level were associated with changes in the involvement of GPs in first contact care, treatment of diseases and, to a limited extent, prevention. Especially in countries with stronger growth of health care expenditures between 1993 and 2012 the service profiles have expanded. In countries where family values are more dominant the breadth in service profiles decreased. A stronger professional status of GPs was positively associated with the change in first contact care. Conclusions: GPs in former communist countries and Turkey have increased their involvement in the provision of services. Developments in Western Europe were less evident. The developments in the service profiles could only to a very limited extent be explained by national conditions. A main driver of reform seems to be the changes in health care expenditure, which may indicate a notion of urgency because there may be a pressure to curb the rising expenditures. Key pointsBroad GP service profiles are an indicator of strong primary care in a country. It is expected that developments in the breadth of GP service profiles are influenced by various national conditions related to the urgency to reform, politics, and means.Between 1993 and 2012 the involvement of GPs in European countries in treatment of diseases increased and their involvement preventive activities decreased.The national conditions were found to be associated with changes in GPs’ involvement as first contact of care, treatment of diseases, and, to a limited extent, prevention.More specifically, in countries with a stronger growth in health care expenditures, service profiles of European GPs have expanded more in the past decades.

Cost per DALY averted thresholds for low- and middle-income countries : evidence from cross country data

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face difficult decisions about which health care interventions are worthwhile given existing constraints on health care expenditure. Decisions require some assessment of the health opportunity costs of proposed investments, i.e., a ‘supply side’ cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) that represents the likely health effects of changes in health care expenditure. This paper provides a framework for generating country-level CETs using existing published estimates of the mortality effect of health expenditure. Two different estimation strategies are used (Bokhari et al (2007) and Moreno-Serra and Smith (2015)) and, where possible, estimation is extended to include other measures of mortality, survival and disability outcomes, reflecting the demographic and other characteristics of each LMIC. The results suggest that CETs representing likely health opportunity costs tend to be below the lower bound suggested by WHO of 1x GDP per capita. Hence, many previous and existing recommendations about which interventions are cost-effective that are based on the WHO threshold are likely to do more harm than good.

Quantifying the contribution of changes in healthcare expenditures and smoking to the reversal of the trend in life expectancy in the Netherlands.

BackgroundSince 2001 the Netherlands has shown a sharp upturn in life expectancy (LE) after a longer period of slower improvement. This study assessed whether changes in healthcare expenditure (HCE) explain this reversal in trends in LE. As an alternative explanation, the impact of changes in smoking behavior was also evaluated.MethodsTo quantify the contribution of changes in HCE to changes in LE, we estimated a health-production function using a dynamic panel regression approach with data on 19 OECD countries (1980–2009), accounting for temporal and spatial correlation. Smoking-attributable mortality was estimated using the indirect Peto-Lopez method.ResultsAs compared to 1990–1999, during 2000–2009 LE in the Netherlands increased by 1.8 years in females and by 1.5 years in males. Whereas changes in the impact of smoking between the two periods made almost no contribution to the acceleration of the increase in LE, changes in the trend of HCE added 0.9 years to the LE increase between 2000 and 2009. The exceptional reversal in the trend of LE and HCE was not found among the other OECD countries.ConclusionThis study suggests that changes in Dutch HCE, and not in smoking, made an important contribution to the reversal of the trend in LE; these findings support the view that investments in healthcare are increasingly important for further progress in life expectancy.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2357-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Changes in health care expenditure after the loss of a spouse: data on 6,487 older widows and widowers in the Netherlands.

BackgroundIn ageing populations, informal care holds great potential to limit rising health care expenditure. The majority of informal care is delivered by spouses. The loss of informal care due to the death of the spouse could therefore increase expenditure levels for formal care.ObjectiveTo investigate the impact of the death of the spouse on health care expenditure by older people through time. Additionally, to examine whether the impact differs between socio-demographic groups, and what health services are affected most.DesignLongitudinal data on health care expenditure (from July 2007 through 2010) from a regional Dutch health care insurer was matched with data on marital status (2004–2011) from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Linear mixed models with log transformed health care expenditure, generalized linear models and two-part models were used to retrieve standardized levels of monthly health care expenditure of 6,487 older widowed subjects in the 42 months before and after the loss of the spouse.ResultsMean monthly health care expenditure in married subjects was €502 in the 42 months before the death of the spouse, and expenditure levels rose by €239 (48%) in the 42 months after the death of the spouse. The increase in expenditure after the death of the spouse was highest for men (€319; 59%) and the oldest old (€553; 82%). Expenditure levels showed the highest increase for hospital and home care services (together €166).ConclusionsThe loss of the spouse is associated with an increase in health care expenditure. The relatively high rise in long-term care expenses suggests that the loss of informal care is an important determinant of this rise.

A more generalizable method to evaluate changes in health care costs with changes in health risks among employers of all sizes.

The objective of this study was to estimate the association between changes in health care expenditures relative to changes in health risk status for employers of all sizes. Repeat health risk assessments (HRAs) were obtained from 50,005 employees and spouses with 2 years of health plan enrollment, and from 37,559 employees and spouses with 3 years of enrollment in employer-sponsored medical coverage. Changes in health care expenditures were measured from the year before completion of the first HRA to the years before and after the completion of the second HRA. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for those who did not repeat the HRA so results could be extrapolated to the larger population. Propensity score weighted multiple regression analyses were used to estimate the relationship between changes in health care expenditures with changes in risk status for 9 risk categories. Significantly higher health care expenditures were associated with those who moved from low risk to medium or high risk, compared to those who remained low risk. Expenditure reductions estimated for those who improved their health status from high risk to medium or low risk were not statistically significant. This study is unique because of its large sample size, its use of data from a wide range of employer sizes, and its efforts to extend generalizability to those who did not complete both HRAs. These results demonstrate that the potential for short-term health care savings may be greater for programs that help maintain low risk than for programs focused on risk reduction.