The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

Abstract

This paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change (i.e. climate damages) to 2060. The analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts: changes in crop yields, loss of land and capital due to sea level rise, changes in fisheries catches, capital damages from hurricanes, labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress, changes in tourism flows, and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating. A multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth, including labour productivity, capital stocks and land supply, as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy, and on the economies of other countries. It uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change. The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains.