Glacier Changes Research Articles

Two-Decadal Glacier Changes in the Astak, a Tributary Catchment of the Upper Indus River in Northern Pakistan

Snow and ice melting in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is crucial for regional water availability for mountainous communities. We analyzed glacier changes in the Astak catchment, UIB, from 2000 to 2020 using remote sensing techniques based on optical satellite images from Landsat and ASTER digital elevation models. We used a surface feature-tracking technique to estimate glacier velocity. To assess the impact of climate variations, we examined temperature and precipitation anomalies using ERA5 Land climate data. Over the past two decades, the Astak catchment experienced a slight decrease in glacier area (−1.8 km2) and the overall specific mass balance was −0.02 ± 0.1 m w.e. a−1. The most negative mass balance of −0.09 ± 0.06 m w.e. a−1 occurred at elevations between 2810 to 3220 m a.s.l., with a lesser rate of −0.015 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 above 5500 m a.s.l. This variation in glacier mass balance can be attributed to temperature and precipitation gradients, as well as debris cover. Recent glacier mass loss can be linked to seasonal temperature anomalies at higher elevations during winter and autumn. Given the reliance of mountain populations on glacier melt, seasonal temperature trends can disturb water security and the well-being of dependent communities.

A Long-Duration Glacier Change Analysis for the Urumqi River Valley, a Representative Region of Central Asia

The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world’s longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years.

Monitoring a high mountain glacier through georeferenced time-lapse photography: Tapado, Dry Andes of Chile (30°S)

ABSTRACT Glaciers and snow cover provide freshwater for irrigated agriculture and urban consumption in the Dry Andes. Given the aridity of this environment, sublimation losses are significant, making precise monitoring techniques crucial in estimating glacier changes. Continuous monitoring of glaciers is typically conducted through the use of automatic weather stations (AWS). However, these stations may not capture the full extent of glacier changes, warranting the use of additional monitoring techniques such as close-range remote sensing and satellite imagery. This study utilizes time-lapse photography acquired from 2013 to 2015 to examine the temporal and spatial albedo variations across the Tapado Glacier, along with the surface changes in the debris-covered section. Sequential orthorectified images were used to observe the spatial evolution of ice cliffs and supraglacial ponds as they changed over time. High-resolution displacement measurements were obtained using feature tracking methods on the debris-covered glacier. Additionally, distributed albedo maps were produced by comparing photographic data with point albedo measurements from an AWS. The results indicate decreased albedo values during summer, along with the expansion of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs in the debris-covered region. The study also proposes a cost-effective remote site monitoring approach using time-lapse photography for continuous observation and data collection.

SWAT‐GL: A new glacier routine for the hydrological model SWAT

AbstractThe hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is widely used in water resources management worldwide. It is also used to simulate catchment hydrology in high‐mountainous regions where glaciers play an important role. However, SWAT considers glaciers in a simplistic way. Although some efforts were done to overcome this limitation, there is no official version available that considers glaciers adequately. This strongly impairs its applicability in glacierized catchments. In this technical note, we propose a novel version of the traditional SWAT, called SWAT‐GL, which introduces (1) a mass balance module and (2) a glacier evolution routine to represent dynamic glacier changes. Mass balance calculations are based on a conceptual degree‐day approach, similar to the snow routine implemented in SWAT. Glacier evolution is realized using the delta‐h (∆h) parameterization, which requires a minimum of data and is thus suitable in data‐scarce regions. The approach allows users to simulate spatially distributed glacier changes. Annual mass balance changes are translated to distributed ice thickness changes depending on the glacier elevation. We demonstrate how SWAT‐GL is technically integrated into SWAT and how glaciers are merged with the existing spatial units. Model code and test data are freely accessible to promote further model development efforts and a wide application. Ultimately, SWAT‐GL aims to make SWAT easily applicable in glacierized catchments without the need of additional tools.

Changes in glacier surface temperature across the Third Pole from 2000 to 2021

Glacier surface temperature is not only an important indicator of climate change, but is also directly related to glacier physical processes and mass balance. Glaciers over the Third Pole have shown heterogeneous but accelerated mass loss over the past two decades. However, few studies have focused on changes of glacier surface temperature in this region. In this study, we investigate this change from 2000 to 2021 using an altitudinal area-weighting method based on Landsat surface temperature products. The results show that this method can robustly derive inter-annual variability and long-term trends of subregional glacier surface temperature. Over the entire Third Pole, glacier surfaces exhibited warming at the rate of +0.17 ± 0.35 °C dec−1 (p = 0.32). The warming had a distinct seasonal pattern: warming in autumn (+0.50 ± 0.53 °C dec−1, p = 0.06) but cooling in spring (−0.22 ± 0.36 °C dec−1, p = 0.23). Correspondingly, the ablation season 0 °C isotherm altitude has risen >100 m and the glacier area with GST ≥0 °C has expanded by 10%. Moreover, the GST changes displayed large spatial heterogeneity. In the westerlies-dominated regions (e.g., Karakoram and Kun Lun), glacier surfaces showed slight warming or even cooling on average (from −0.10 to +0.06 °C dec−1), while in the monsoon-dominated regions (e.g., East Himalaya, Southeast Tibetan Plateau and Hengduan Mountains), strong warming was observed (> +0.50 °C dec−1, p < 0.05). Glacier surfaces generally showed a faster warming at north slopes than south slopes, especially in the ablation season. These results emphasize that different magnitudes of glacier surface warming are important indicators for the contrasting glacier changes over the Third Pole. The method presented here opens the way to investigate long-term surface temperature change of global mountain glaciers, which can help us further understand the mechanisms of glacier response to global climate change.

Contrasting Changes of Debris-Free Glacier and Debris-Covered Glacier in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Debris-free and debris-covered glaciers are both extensively present in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. High-precision and rigorous comparative observational studies on different types of glaciers help us to accurately understand the overall state of water resource variability and the underlying mechanisms. In this study, we used multi-temporal simultaneous UAV surveys to systematically explore the surface elevation change, surface velocity, and surface mass balance of two representative glaciers. Our findings indicate that the thinning rate in the debris-free Parlung No. 4 glacier UAV survey area was consistently higher than that in the debris-covered 24K glacier in 2020–2021 (−1.16 ± 0.03 cm/d vs. −0.36 ± 0.02 cm/d) and 2021–2022 (−0.69 ± 0.03 cm/d vs. −0.26 ± 0.03 cm/d). Moreover, the surface velocity of the Parlung No. 4 glacier was also consistently higher than that of the 24K glacier across the survey period, suggesting a more dynamic glacial state. The surface mass balance of the Parlung No. 4 glacier (2020–2021: −1.82 ± 0.09 cm/d; 2021–2022: −1.30 ± 0.09 cm/d) likewise outpaced that of the 24K glacier (2020–2021: −0.81 ± 0.07 cm/d; 2021–2022: −0.70 ± 0.07 cm/d) throughout the observation period, which indicates that the debris cover slowed the glacier’s melting. Additionally, we extracted the melt contribution of the ice cliff area in the 24K glacier and found that the melt ratio of this ‘hotspot’ area ranged from 10.4% to 11.6% from 2020 to 2022. This comparative analysis of two representative glaciers provides evidence to support the critical role of debris cover in controlling surface elevation changes, glacier dynamics, and surface mass balance.

Two Decades of Glacier and Glacial Lake Change in the Dhauladhar Mountain Range, Himachal Himalayas, India (2000–2020)

Two Decades of Glacier and Glacial Lake Change in the Dhauladhar Mountain Range, Himachal Himalayas, India (2000–2020)

International Law Issues Concerning Marine Environment Protection in the Arctic

International Law Issues Concerning Marine Environment Protection in the Arctic

Deglaciation patterns in the Upper Zemmgrund, Austria: An exploration of clean-ice disintegration scenarios

The European Alps are rapidly losing glacier mass due to climatic warming and are anticipated to be largely ice-free by the year 2100. Long-term glacier monitoring in the Alps provides a record of anthropogenically-driven climate change since the Little Ice Age maximum in ~1850. Understanding these long-term glacier changes provides a basis for mitigating hazards (e.g., mass movements) associated with a transition to a paraglacial environment and for predicting future scenarios. Here, we present a post-Little Ice Age-maximum record of glacial landscape changes in the Upper Zemmgrund, Austria, utilising a multi-method framework integrating multi-decadal geomorphological mapping, historical imagery and remote sensing of glacier change. This study contributes a high-resolution, quantifiable record of the transition from a glacial to paraglacial landscape. We find that individual glacier response to climatic change varies within the Upper Zemmgrund, attributed to glacier characteristics such as hypsometry and size. Nonetheless, all glaciers show signs of growing instability such as an increase in crevasses and the collapse of circular tension structures, which have dammed meltwater at the terminus of one glacier, posing a substantial hazard to downstream communities. Future glacier disintegration is anticipated to accelerate in the Upper Zemmgrund, which may result in an ice-free landscape within the next ~40–60 years.

Spatiotemporal Variability Analysis of Glaciers in the Hindukush Region of Pakistan Using Remote Sensing Data

Headwater in the Indus River in Pakistan is largely dependent on the glaciers located in the northern part of the country, along with other sources such as direct precipitation. Glaciers are a major source of freshwater that provides agriculture and livelihood to millions of people. The hydro-climatic variations in the Gilgit watershed of the Upper Indus basin are poorly investigated scientifically due to high topographical differences, geography, remoteness of the region, and larger variations in climatic conditions. These glaciers are continuously changing due to melting as a consequence of global warming or accumulation due to snowfall/precipitation at higher altitude regions. The study is carried out using remote sensing data to quantify glacier changes in spatiotemporal variability in the past three decades. Five glaciers in the Gilgit region (near the junction of the Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains) with an area of more than 5 square kilometers were selected, namely Phakor, Karamber, East Gammu, Bhort, and Bad-e-Swat glaciers. These glaciers were monitored for changes in their sizes through a cloud-free continuous series of Landsat satellite imagery. The annual climatic trends were studied through spatially interpolated gridded climate data WοrldClim version-1 climate database for 1970–2000, utilized for assessment of meteorological condition by analyzing the variations of minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. The temporal variations in five glaciers in the Gilgit watershed are found to be minimal and, thus, are rather stable and show no sign of rapid melting or diminishing. The little variability of glaciers’ extent may be attributed to their geographic condition, altitude, topography, and orientation. The mapped glacier classes have been validated to check the accuracy assessment through an error matrix method. The kappa coefficient from the error matrix has been calculated as 84%, which shows a good agreement. The study makes a critical input towards understanding the dynamics of the glacier in the upper Indus catchment’s Gilgit watershed.

Understanding hydrological processes of glacierized catchments in the western Himalayas by a multi‐year tracer‐based hydrograph separation analysis

AbstractSnow and glacier melt are significant contributors to streamflow in Himalayan catchments, and their increasing contributions serve as key indicators of climate change. Consequently, the quantification of these streamflow components holds significant importance for effective water resource management. In this study, we utilized the spatio‐temporal variability of isotopic signatures in stream water, rainfall, winter fresh snow, snowpack, glaciers, springs, and wells, in conjunction with hydrometeorological observations and Snow Cover Area (SCA) data, to identify water sources and develop a conceptual understanding of streamflow dynamics in three catchments (Lidder, Sindh, and Vishow) within the western Himalayas. The following results were obtained: (a) endmember contributions to the streamflow exhibit significant spatial and seasonal variability across the three catchments during 2018–2020; (b) snowmelt dominates streamflow, with average contributions across the entire catchment varying: 59% ± 9%, 55% ± 4%, 56% ± 6%, and 55% ± 9% in Lidder, 43% ± 6%, 38% ± 6%, 32% ± 4%, and 33% ± 5% in Sindh and 45% ± 8%, 40% ± 6%, 39% ± 6%, and 32% ± 5% in Vishow during spring, summer, autumn, and winter seasons, respectively; (c) glacier melt contributions can reach ~30% to streamflow near the source regions during peak summer; (d) The primary uncertainties in streamflow components are attributed to the spatiotemporal variability of tracer signatures of winter fresh snow/snowpack (±1.9% to ±20%); (e)regarding future streamflow components, if the glacier contribution were to disappear completely, the annual average streamflow in Lidder and Sindh could decrease up to ~20%. The depletion of the cryosphere in the region has led to a rapid increase in runoff (1980–1900), but it has also resulted in a significant streamflow reduction due to glacier mass loss and changes in peak streamflow over the past three decades (1990–2020). The findings highlight the significance of environmental isotope analysis, which provides insights into water resources and offers a critical indication of the streamflow response to glacier loss under a changing climate.

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Glaciers play a vital role in the Asian mountain water towers and have significant downstream impacts on domestic, agricultural, and industrial water usage. The rate of glacier mass loss in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is among the highest in Asia and has intensified in recent decades. However, a comprehensive quantification that considers both spatial and temporal aspects of glacier mass loss across the entire SETP is still insufficient. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing geodetic datasets specific to each glacier by calibrating the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven by HAR v2 and reconstructing the glacier mass balance of 7756 glaciers in the SETP from 1980 to 2019 while examining their spatial variability. The findings reveal that the average mass balance during this period was −0.50 ± 0.28 m w.e. a−1, with an accelerated loss observed in the 2000s (average: 0.62 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1). Notably, central glaciers in the SETP exhibited relatively smaller mass loss, indicating a gradient effect of increased loss from the central region toward the eastern and western sides. By the end of this century, the area, length, and volume of glaciers in the entire SETP region are projected to decrease by 83.57 ± 4.91%, 90.25 ± 4.23%, and 88.04 ± 4.52%, respectively. Moreover, the SETP glacier melt runoff is estimated to decrease by 62.63 ± 6.16% toward the end of the century, with the “peak water” point of glacier melt runoff predicted to occur in 2023 under the SSP585 scenario. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that the SETP glaciers are more than three times more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation variations, and the observed decrease in monsoon precipitation indicates the weakening magnitude of the Indian summer monsoon in recent years. The spatially refined and high-temporal-resolution characteristics of glacier mass loss presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of specific glacier changes in the SETP. Additionally, the prediction results provide valuable references for future water resources management and policy formulation in the SETP region.

The influence of fluvial and glacial watershed dynamics on Holocene sediment accumulation in Cariboo Lake, Columbia Mountains, British Columbia, Canada

Records of sedimentation collected from Cariboo Lake, situated in the northern Columbia Mountains, British Columbia, Canada, are analyzed to assess Holocene fluvial and glacial watershed dynamics. The aim of this study is to provide a proxy record of Holocene hydroclimate and glacier change from sediment archives at a higher temporal resolution compared to available records for the Interior Ranges of British Columbia. Deglacial and Holocene sediment accumulation is observed to reach a maximum thickness of 35 m in deep parts of the lake, using sub-bottom acoustic soundings. A transition from massive to well-stratified sediments is observed in the sub-bottom acoustic record during final phases of valley deglaciation in the region (~10.5–9 cal ka BP). Laminae couplets are interpreted to be deposited annually according to two 14C dates and a varve counting chronology. Two long cores, 2.9 and 3.8 m in length, were selected for analysis with estimated basal dates of 2 cal ka BP. Trends in downcore sediment characteristics were linked to environmental changes in the glaciated catchment headwaters at a temporal resolution of ~100 years. Upstream lake filtering of river floodplains and lakes prevented finding a higher temporal resolution linkage between the sediment characteristics and headwater fluvial and glacial activity. Despite some upstream filtering, the Cariboo River was found to be the primary source of sediment to the long core sites. Observed grain size and varve thickness from two long cores show above average trends, which are coincident with cooler temperatures and the primary glacier advances over the last 2 ka.

Monitoring surface velocity changes of rock glaciers in the Chilean Andes using DINSAR technique with PAZ imagery

Vertical deformation associated with the displacement of rock glaciers in the upper Mapocho river basin, in the central Andes of Chile, was monitored using a series of PAZ radar satellite images and the DInSAR technique. Forty-one PAZ images of ascending and descending orbit were processed with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) technique. Regarding the obtained results, it was estimated that the vertical displacement velocity of rock glaciers between October 9, 2019 and April 22, 2021 reached up to -22 mm/year and the movement in the W-E direction ranged from -47 to 38 mm/year. This remote sensing technique is a useful tool to measure the surface displacement of rock glaciers, compared to conventional techniques such as GNSS point measurements, especially in the semi-arid Andes, which is one of the most important reservoirs of these geoforms worldwide.

Temporal variation in glacier surface area and glacial lakes in glaciated river basins of Arunachal Pradesh

Abstract Climate change-induced glacier recession has sparked a dynamic transformation of glaciers in high-mountain areas worldwide, resulting in genesis, expansion, and dissipation of glacial lakes that pose a potential threat to downstream communities, underscoring the need for regular monitoring. This study incorporates the automated glacier extraction index to improve debris-free glacier mapping accuracy by reducing water and shadow area categorization errors using multi-temporal Landsat-5 Thermal Mapper, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager, and digital elevation model (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) to obtain precise glacier extent. Waterbodies were delineated using thresholding techniques applied to water indices: normalized difference water index, modified normalized difference water index, normalized difference turbidity index, and slope information. The study attempted to map and analyze the temporal variations of glaciers and glacier lakes in the glaciated sub-basins of Arunachal Pradesh: Dibang Basin, Mago Basin, and Subansiri Basin. Glaciers receded at a shrinkage rate of 1.08% per year (1988–2017) in Mago Basin, 1.01% per year (2013–2022) in Subansiri Basin, and 1.42% per year (1995–2021) in Dibang Basin. Glacier lakes showed an increasing trend in number and area due to glacier melt, expanding at rates of 3.31% in the Mago Basin, 0.48% in the Subansiri Basin, and 0.68% in the Dibang Basin per year. Findings suggest that global climate change is likely the primary factor driving glacier changes in these basins.

10Be surface exposure dating of glacier fluctuations on the eastern slope of Mount Geladandong, central Tibetan Plateau

Moraine complexes formed by multiple glaciations are well-preserved in the Mount Geladandong area, the largest center of current glaciation in the Tanggula Mountains in western China. Studies of these glacial landforms provide insights into past glacier changes and contribute to understanding palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here we report on 10Be surface exposure dating of thirteen rock samples collected from a sequence of glacial landforms associated with the Gangjiaquba Glacier. Based on the dating results, historical records (topographical maps) and morphological relationships, clear Little Ice Age (LIA) landforms are identified, and other landforms are tentatively assigned Neoglacial and global Last Glacial Maximum (LGMG) ages. Dating results for samples from modern glacial landforms demonstrate that the boulders were not affected by nuclide inheritance, and that 10Be surface exposure dating may be used to constrain glacier fluctuations during the past century in high-altitude areas that have high 10Be production rates. A comparison of the ages of a glacially polished surface and adjacent glacial deposits indicates that subglacial erosion by abrasion of the rock surface was insufficient to remove cosmogenic nuclide inventories. Thus the apparent exposure age on the polished surface includes inheritance and over-estimates the actual age for the exposure of this surface. Samples from hummocky moraine have wide age spreads, indicating long-lasting surface instability after deposition of this landform. Successive reduction in glacial extent in the Mount Geladandong area since the LGMG reflects temperature and precipitation changes over this timeframe in the central TP, with climate forcing for glacial advances correlated with cooling signals in the North Atlantic that may have been transmitted to this area by the westerlies.

A call for an accurate presentation of glaciers as water resources

AbstractGlaciers are often portrayed as an important water resource in scientific research and public debate. However, the scientific literature calls for caution when presenting this idea. While melting glaciers can increase water insecurity, their contribution to runoff is often minor and other factors like excessive groundwater pumping for irrigation or surface and groundwater contamination pose much greater threats to water availability. As we consider the wide range of environmental impacts due to glacier changes, we must also question the “glacier as water resource” narrative that may unnecessarily contribute to public anxiety.This article is categorized under: Human Water &gt; Water as Imagined and Represented Science of Water &gt; Water and Environmental Change

Susceptibility analysis of glacier debris flow by investigating glacier changes based on remote sensing imagery and deep learning: A case study

Glacier debris flow is becoming increasingly severe as global warming intensifies. To minimize the catastrophic losses caused by glacier debris flow, it is essential to analyze the susceptibility of glacier debris flow. In this study, we employed remote sensing with deep learning methods to investigate glaciers changes, evaluating the susceptibility of glacier debris flow in Zelongnong ravine, Southeast Tibet. First, we utilized Landsat optical remote sensing imageries to obtain the semantic segmentation dataset and trained a deep learning model to automatically extract the glacier boundary in Zelongnong ravine. Second, by pre-processing the DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) and integrating them with the glacial boundaries, the volume of glacier ablation was measured. Eventually, according to the glacier ablation, the correction coefficient was determined, which modified the geomorphic information entropy theory, and further analyzed the susceptibility of glacier debris flow in Zelongnong ravine. The research results of the study present that the evaluation indices of the deep learning model that extracted glacier boundaries are over 90%. Moreover, the study results confirm the accuracy of the modified susceptibility evaluation method for glacier debris flows, and the susceptibility of glacier debris flows in Zelongnong ravine generally ranges between high and very high. This study reveals the feasibility and progress of using remote sensing and deep learning in glacier boundary extraction, providing a promising reference for the evaluation of the susceptibility and prediction of glacier debris flow in similar high mountainous areas as well.

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming

Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.

Impact of glacier changes and permafrost distribution on debris flows in Badswat and Shishkat catchments, Northern Pakistan

Impact of glacier changes and permafrost distribution on debris flows in Badswat and Shishkat catchments, Northern Pakistan