Changes In Ecosystem Service Values Research Articles

Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan—An Assessment of the Past and Future

Being one of the weakest economies in the world, livelihoods in Afghanistan remain highly dependent on local ecosystem services. However, the risk of ecosystem services degradation in Afghanistan over the past two decades has significantly increased, mainly due to rapid changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC). As such, policy makers must be able to estimate the impact of LULC changes on various ecosystem services. By utilizing GlobeLand30 land cover products for 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by adopting the value transfer method, this study assessed the ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in response to the changes of LULC in Afghanistan. Additionally, the dynamics of the land system (DLS) model was innovatively coupled with linear programming to predict likely scenarios of ESV changes by 2030. The predicted results were also validated against actual land cover and achieved a Kappa value of 0.78. The results showed that over the 20-year period, ecologically important LULC categories such as forest, water bodies and grassland were severely unstable and rapidly decreasing in scope. These LULC types were being threatened by agricultural, built-up and unused lands. During this period, we estimated a decrease in the total ESV from 161 billion USD in 2000 to 152.27 billion USD in 2020. About 92% of this decrease was shared by supporting and provisioning services. The simulated scenarios also showed that ESV will likely further decrease under Business-As-Usual (BAU), and Rapid Economic Development (RED) scenarios. Positively, an Environmental Protection (ENP) scenario is predicted, with a 4.5% increase in ESV by 2030. However, achieving this scenario requires the enforcement of strict environmental protection measures.

The impact of land use and land cover changes on the landscape pattern and ecosystem service value in Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Decades of intensifying human activities have caused dramatic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which have led to significant changes in ecosystem service value (ESV). Taking the ecologically fragile Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research object, we focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the Sanjiangyuan's landscape pattern and its corresponding ESV, which was combined with a Markov-Plus model to predict LULC changes in 2030. The results showed: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LULC of Sanjiangyuan has changed to varying degrees, respectively. In the central and southern regions where animal husbandry is the mainstay activity, the area of grass land converted to bareland had expanded; (2) from 2000 to 2010, the total regional ESV increased sharply. However, the total amount of ESV decreased from 2010 to 2020; (3) the overall ESV in the study area was observed to be trending down and is expected to decrease by approximately 4.25 billion CNY by 2030; (4) the fragmentation and complexity of regional landscape patterns will negatively affect local ecosystem stability and biodiversity. Overall, there is a strong temporal and spatial correlation between LULC and ESV. This study will provide a reference for the local government to provide targeted and sustainable land management policies, thereby promoting the improvement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regional ecology value.

Urban land use change simulation and spatial responses of ecosystem service value under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wuhan, China

Simulation of changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use change in Wuhan under multiple scenarios is of great significance for ensuring urban ecological security and enhancing regional ecosystem service values. The city of Wuhan was selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and ESV in Wuhan over the past 31 years were analyzed and calculated based on five-phase remote sensing images and statistical yearbooks for 1990, 1998, 2006, 2014 and 2021. On this basis, the CA-Markov model and the multi objective planning (MOP) model were used to simulate the land use change in the study area in 2040 under four scenarios (natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario and urban development scenario), and the total ESV was estimated under each scenario. The total value of ecosystem services was estimated under each scenario, and grid tools were applied to visualize the spatial distribution and degree of aggregation of ecosystem services. The results show that: (1) The most obvious feature of land use change in Wuhan from 1990 to 2021 is the sharp reduction in arable land area and the rapid expansion of build-up land area. Over the past 31 years, the arable land area decreased by 78322.4 hm2, and the build-up land area increased by 52559.28 hm2. (2) From 1990 to 2021, Wuhan’s total ESV at the five timepoints (1990, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2021) was 74.554 billion yuan, 71.512 billion yuan, 69.632 billion yuan, 73.433 billion yuan and 68.548 billion yuan, respectively. Overall, there has been a downward trend in volatility. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV in 2040 is projected to be 72.777 billion yuan, 70.969 billion yuan, 74.097 billion yuan or 70.620 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, the ecological protection scenario is the optimal simulation choice. (4) The cold and hot spots of ESV show an aggregated distribution over a large area, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of Wuhan and the cold spots mainly located in the northeastern and northwestern portions of Wuhan. Simulating the future land use change trends in Wuhan and exploring the responses of ecosystem service values under various scenarios are conducive to the construction of a new pattern of urban land space development and protection and can provide a scientific basis and a reference for decision-making for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Wuhan and other metropolitan areas in China in the future.

Evaluation and prediction of land use change impacts on ecosystem service values in Nanjing City from 1995 to 2030.

Land use changes have a considerable impact on ecosystem services (ESs). In recent years, land use changes caused by urban expansion in Nanjing City have been obvious and are expected to further change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to quantitatively assess ecosystem service value (ESV) changes caused by previous land use changes and future potential changes in Nanjing. In this study, land use data products based on remote sensing images, Dyna-CLUE model, and the ESV equivalent coefficient method were applied to assess the impact of land use changes on ESVs in Nanjing City over the past 23 years (1995-2018), and to forecast the changes of ESV in 2030. The results indicated that the total ESVs of Nanjing City displayed a trend of first increasing and then declining in 1995-2018. From the land use classification, the water area had the largest ESV in Nanjing, followed by arable land. Additionally, the regulating service value was the highest among the four primary ESs in Nanjing from 1995 to 2030, with the highest value of 13.73 billion yuan in 2015. Among the three forecast scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest total ESV and was followed by the urban expansion and business as usual scenarios. These findings may assist for the scientific decision-making of sustainable land use and ecosystem management in Nanjing City.

Coupling analysis of environment and economy based on the changes of ecosystem service value

Environmental and economic coordination (EEC) is an essential indicator of sustainability and plays a vital role in human well-being. Quantifying trends in EEC and identifying the contributing factors are important to understand the relative impacts of human activities on ecological environment. For our case-study of 74 cities and counties in Hubei Province of China from 2000 to 2020, based on the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV), the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was applied to calculate the EEC. The spatial–temporal differentiation characteristics of EEC were detected through spatial correlation analysis. By the spatial Durbin model and panel data, we quantified the impacts of driving factors on EEC. Our results indicated that the number of cities and counties in a coordinated state in Hubei Province declined from 2000 to 2010 and then gradually rose from 2010 to 2020, while 87.84% of the cities and counties showed an overall decreasing trend in EEC values. Hubei’s EEC had obvious spatial clustering characteristics, with over 84.57% of cities and counties with medium to high EEC concentrated in the Wuhan City Circle and Yichang region, while those with low EEC were mainly concentrated in northwest, northeast and southwest of Hubei. For the driving factors, the promotion effects of industrial structure optimization and precipitation were evident, whereas the inhibition effects of increase in general public budget expenditure, population growth, urban expansion and rising temperatures were observed. The results provide important background understanding for achieving coordinated development of the ecological environment and socio-economy at regional and global scales.

Temporal and spatial variation of ecosystem service value and its response to landscape pattern change in Guizhou Province, China.

Guizhou Province is a test area of ecological civilization in China, and one of the most typical areas of karst landform development in the world. Exploring the change of ecosystem service value and its spatial correlation distribution characteristics with landscape pattern is conducive to formulating ecological environment improvement and protection measures according to local conditions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of landscape pattern and ecosystem services in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2018 and constructed a geographically weighted regression model to explore the spatial changes of their correlation coefficients. The results showed that the transfer of landscape types in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2018 mainly occurred in the five landscapes of construction land, forest, water, grassland, and cropland. The landscape fragmentation and diversity increased. The value of ecosystem services was increasing year by year. Forests were the main contributors to the value of ecosystem services in Guizhou Province, with regulation services as the main ecosystem services. For high-value landscape types, the increase of diversity and the reduction of fragmentation were conducive to the increases of ecosystem service value. In the area with concentrated low-value landscape types, it showed the opposite effect. The direction of landscape transfer and the spatial distribution of diversity and fragmentation of different landscape types should be adjusted according to the characteristics of ecological environment in different regions of Guizhou Province, to realize the increases of ecosystem service value.

A hybrid scale to relate natural and built environments: a pragmatic approach to sustainable cities

ABSTRACT Urbanization is an irreversible and dynamic process which affects the availability and quality of ecosystem services (ESs). The link between balanced urban growth and ESs is critical for sustainable urban development. The study followed pluralist approach for evaluating and comparing the land-cover-based economic assessment of sustainable, moderately sustainable, and unsustainable cities. The artificial intelligence-based future land cover changes were evaluated using geographic future land use simulation software with geographic information system. A case-specific modification of value coefficients for computing ecosystem service value (ESV) was applied on case cities. A workable scale was developed by exploring relation of ESs and built-up of three extreme cases. The scale has different combinations of ESs and built-up from worst to best scenario with related ESV changes for optimal utilization of land. The scale helped to assess the spatial resource and natural capital balance of any area. The results showed that the ideal ratio of ESs and built-up density range for balanced sustainable development is between 1.35 and 3.64 with ESVs between INR 10.00 million/hectare and INR 8.45 million/hectare, respectively. On applying the scale, the results showed that only 25% of the city peripheral area comes under ideal range. The study will help urban planners in conservation of ESs with economic development for promoting sustainable urban development.

A Dynamic Evaluation of Ecosystem Services Value in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on Scarcity Modification of Spatiotemporal Supply–Demand Influence

It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal differences between supply and demand of regional ecosystem services (ES) and evaluate the dynamic impact of changes in supply and demand on the ecosystem services value (ESV) so as to provide scientific guidance for human activities and maintain healthy ecosystem development. This study proposes a novel method to calculate the scarcity value of ecosystem service (SESV) as a function of the temporal and spatial changes in supply and demand to divided ecological zones with differentiated land-use strategies. Then, it explores the changes in ESV and SESV in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 2000 to 2015. Firstly, the native ecosystem services value (NESV) and demand of ES in the BTH region were evaluated. Secondly, the spatiotemporal influence mechanism of supply and demand on ESV was analyzed according to the equilibrium price principle of supply and demand in economics, and a model for evaluating the SESV was constructed on the basis of supply and demand. Lastly, the ecological zoning method was proposed for of the BTH region. Result shows that the NESV in the BTH region was 2775.54 billion CNY in 2000, and it decreased to 2722.44 billion CNY in 2015. Taking into account the changes in supply and demand, the SESV in 2015 was 2884.85 billion CNY. Secondly, the NESV in 2000 and 2015 and the SESV in 2015 exhibited a gradual downward trend from north to south. Lastly, according to the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand and NESV/SESV in the BTH region, the ecological zones of the BTH region were divided, and differentiated land-use policies were put forward. The research can not only enrich ESV evaluation theories and methods, but also provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of the BTH region and promote regional ecological civilization construction strategies.

Temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of ecosystem service values based on the ecogeographical division of China: a case study in the Yellow River Basin, China.

The identification of spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and their drivers is the basis for ecosystem service administration and decision-making. This research focuses on the Yellow River Basin (YRB). With a multitemporal land use and land cover (LULC) dataset (1995-2018), the equivalence coefficient method with spatiotemporal dynamic correction and exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to evaluate ESV changes due to LULC changes and their spatial characteristics. The contributions of the ESV driving factors and their mutual effects were also investigated via geographic detectors. The results revealed that (1) the land use structure of the YRB, mainly grassland and cultivated land, was stable from 1995 to 2018. However, the transition between land use types was dramatic, including urban expansion accompanied by losses of farmland, grassland, and unused land; increased forestland; and significant increases in water bodies and wetland areas. (2) During the study period, the overall ESV of the YRB increased, and hydrological regulation and climate regulation services dominated the change in the ESVs in the study area. The ESV exhibited obvious ecogeographical pattern differentiation and evident positive spatial autocorrelation. High values were concentrated in the southern part of the study area, including the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the central part of the East Asian monsoon region. Low values were concentrated in the northwestern arid zone, dominated by desert and grassland ecosystems. (3) Because of the fragility of the regional ecological background, the spatial differentiation of the ESVs in the YRB is dependent on natural factors; however, anthropogenic factors such as the degree of land use and the human activity intensity also lead to ESV differentiation. The synergistic effects of human activities, landscape pattern changes, and natural factors result in the spatial differentiation of the ESVs in the research region. Therefore, human activities affecting the ecological environment should be controlled, nature-based solutions should be advocated, patch diversity should be increased, landscape fragmentation should be reduced, LULC ecosystem service functions should be improved, and the relationship among economic, social, and ecological landscape resources should be coordinated.

Combining spatial planning and ecosystem services value to assist ecological compensation decision-making—A case study of Yangtze River Delta ecological barrier, China

China’s ecological compensation (EC) is based on the property rights structure of public ownership of natural resources, which should be based on the spatial planning, which is defined by local government as the boundary of property right management and the distribution of development power. This study combined spatial planning and ecosystem service value (ESV) accounting to design a decision-making framework of EC, which includes “Subject choice, Value accounting, Priority evaluation, Policy supply”. We selected 32 counties (districts) in the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object with the consideration of spatial planning and expert advice, and found that the implementation of EC slowed down the urbanization process and promoted the increase of ecological space. We conducted an accounting and sensitivity analysis on the spatial and temporal changes of ESV in the region from 2000 to 2019, and finally determined the amount and priority of accepting EC. The research results show that the ESV in the study area shows a general trend of increasing and then decreasing in time, and a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north and high in the east and low in the west. Forestland and water area are the main providers of ESV in the study area. The sensitivity coefficients of each type of ESV do not change much in each period, but the coefficients between the types have large differences. The total amount of EC in the Yangtze River Delta ecological barrier (YRDEB) is RMB 38,098.11 billion, and Shitai County is the area with the highest priority for compensation. We believe that this decision-making framework has the potential to be applied to the implementation of EC in other regions of China. At the same time, it can also be used to enrich the international views on EC research.

Impacts of ecological programs on land use and ecosystem services since the 1980s: A case‐study of a typical catchment on the Loess Plateau, China

AbstractChina' Loess Plateau, which was once dominated by sloping fields with poor farming conditions and serious soil erosion, has experienced a series of ecological programs. This article sought to explore the impacts of ecological programs on land use and ecosystem services in a typical catchment of China's Loess Plateau from 1984 to 2017, and thus understand what needs to be improved for future ecological programs. The findings showed that: (a) Due to the implementation of various ecological programs, the land use structure was optimized, and vegetation coverage was significantly increased, especially with the implement of the Grain for Green (GFG) Program. (b) The change of the total ecosystem service value (ESV) presented a U‐shaped curve. The total ESV decreased under the Comprehensive Management of Small Catchments Program, and increased significantly since the implementation of the GFG. The rapid increase stage can be traced to the effects of the Gully Land Consolidation Program, reflecting the time lag effect of ecological programs on the improvement of ecosystem services. (c) The various ecosystem services were improved significantly, except for the food provisioning value (FPV). The abandonment of croplands without consolidation determined the decline of the FPV, implying the necessity for a land‐use efficiency boost. Our research proposed to build up an actor network to integrate local governments, rural cadres, villagers, enterprises, and natural resources, especially land resources, into ecological programs to ensure ecological restoration and activate the factors of production, thus securing the sustainable development of China' Loess Plateau.

Surface coal mining impacts on land use change and ecological service value: a case study in Shengli coalfield, Inner Mongolia

Coal plays a crucial role in global economic development and remains the most common and widely distributed fossil fuel worldwide. As the world's largest developing country, China's mining and utilization of coal resources have contributed significantly to the country’s rapid economic growth. Inner Mongolia is an ecologically fragile arid and semi-arid area of China. The exploitation of opencast mining has seriously hindered the sustainable use of regional land and the residents' well-being. Using ENVI-based remote sensing images from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, this study employed a random forest algorithm to divide land utilization types into construction land, vegetation, cultivated land, bare land, and water areas and analyzed the characteristics of land use and ecosystem service value changes over the past 20 years. The results were as follows: (1) Construction land in the mining area changed minimally from 2000 to 2020; vegetation and water bodies showed a decreasing trend, whereas bare and cultivated lands showed an increasing trend. Bare land exhibited the largest change in area proportion and water bodies the smallest. (2) The total ecosystem service value of the mining area declined from 10.939 to 9.527 billion Yuan. Vegetation ecosystem service value was the highest, followed by cultivated land and water, with the bare land ecosystem service value the lowest. (3) On a spatial scale, the total ecosystem service value of the Shengli mining area decreased year by year, indicating that land use changes in the mining area do have an impact on ecosystem service value.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Value of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan

Urbanization and human activity have recently resulted in land use/cover change (LUCC), which has had a detrimental effect on the biological environment, on keeping the ecosystem’s sustainable growth and on comprehending the ecosystem’s quality and changes over the past 20 years in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. The equivalent factor method and hotspot analysis were used to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) in the urban agglomerations of central Yunnan province, and the effects of land use change on ESV were then examined. This study is based on the grid data of land use in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Finally, Geodetector was used to investigate the possible causes of ESV. The results showed that: (1) The urban agglomerations in central Yunnan’s land-use structure and pattern clearly changed between 2000 and 2020, with continual declines in grassland, cultivated land, and woodland, and constant increases in construction land. There was significant growth in both speed and area. (2) The average ESV of the land decreased consistently, the hotspot areas shrank, and the cold-spot areas grew as the ecosystem service function declined and the total amount of ESV decreased by 1.517 billion Yuan. These events were mostly explained by an increase in construction land and a decrease in grassland, cultivated land, and woodland. (3) The synergistic effect of numerous factors is what causes the change in ESV in the urban agglomerations of central Yunnan. The key forces behind ESV change in the research area were land-use intensity, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, and people density. The results can help decision makers establish policies for ecological conservation and land use.

Spatio-temporal variations of ecosystem service values in response to land use/cover change in Luoyang city

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) caused by human activities is an important factor in changes in global ecosystems; however, the impact of LUCC on ecosystem service value (ESV) has never been previously assessed in Luoyang City, China. This paper explores spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land use pattern change, ESV change and response to LUCC in Luoyang City from 2010 to 2019 through GIS and remote sensing techniques, and employing transfer matrix, ESV spatial autocorrelation analysis and elastic coefficient change. During the study period: 1) Between 2010 and 2019, land-use changes in Luoyang City showed a trend of “two increases and four decreases,” specifically, built-up land and forest areas increased, while the extent of cropland, grassland, water, and unused land areas decreased. 2) The recorded land-use conversion in Luoyang City is complex, with forest and cropland land uses increasing and decreasing fastest, respectively, with the proportion of forest increasing by 10.19% and cropland decreasing by 3.37% — the reason for this change is the transition from cropland and grassland to forest and occupation of cropland by built-up land. 3) The ESV change in Luoyang City was U-shaped, with the total ESV increasing 1.96% from ¥44.78 billion to ¥45.66 billion; additionally, the ESV provided by forest areas increased by 23.83%. 4) From 2010 to 2019, Luoyang’s hydrological regulation, climate regulation and soil and water conservation contributed the most to Luoyang’s ESV, accounting for 63.89% of the total ESV in 2019. 5) The overall ESVs of the townships in Luoyang City have obvious clustering and are not completely randomly spatially distributed. With the optimization of land-use allocation, the ESV high–high clusters have expanded. 6) The overall elasticity coefficient is high in Luoyang City and ESV responds intensely to LUCC, with the most significant response shown by the forests of Luolong District. The findings of this survey are practical for helping Luoyang City to optimize land resource usage scientifically.

Evaluation and simulation of landscape evolution and its ecological effects under vegetation restoration in the northern sand prevention belt, China

Vegetation restoration has brought about remarkable landscape evolution in arid regions, and it is of great significance to evaluate its ecological benefits. However, the landscape evolution and ecological effects of different vegetation restoration measures have yet to be distinguished, and their future trends remain to be revealed, especially from the perspective of fine vegetation classification. In this study, we evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the northern sand prevention belt (NSPB) based on the fine land use/cover classification and benefit transfer method. Then, we analyzed changes in landscape and ESV induced by vegetation restoration from 2000 to 2015 and designed 9 future vegetation restoration scenarios to improve ESV. The results showed that the built-up area and dry farmland expanded by 35.37% and 3.48%, respectively, and paddy field and bush decreased by 19.00% and 6.80% from 2000 to 2015, respectively. Total ESV decreased by 0.62% (1.76 billion USD) during 2000–2015. The reduction in bush led to a loss of 0.85% (2.41 billion USD) in ESV. Vegetation restoration involved grassland restoration (1.99 million ha), bush restoration (0.26 million ha), and forestland restoration (0.18 million ha), which increased ESV by 1.21, 1.17, and 4.29 billion USD, respectively. Anthropogenic disturbance resulted in the loss of 2.97 million ha of vegetation and 9.23 billion USD in ESV. Current vegetation restoration in the NSPB is insufficient to counteract the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on ESV. Riparian vegetation buffer and grain for green scenarios have limited ecological benefits. Desertification control scenarios have the potential to increase ESV by at least 8.94% (25.12 billion USD) and to reverse ESV losses. Bush and grassland can be used instead of forestland for restoration in arid regions. This study can provide important support for the formulation and adjustment of landscape restoration in arid regions.

Spatio-temporal evolution and optimization analysis of ecosystem service value - A case study of coal resource-based city group in Shandong, China

Coal-resource-based cities (CRBCs) have played an essential role in China's economic development over the past few decades, but ecological problems have become increasingly prominent. CRBCs are now facing a critical transformation node under the goal of carbon neutrality. Based on the balance of economy, ecology and energy, we put forward a method to evaluate and optimize sustainable urban development . In this study, we analyzed the land use/land cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) of coal resource-based city group of Shandong province (CRBCGS) from 2000 to 2018 and the contribution of 16 natural and social production indicators to LUCC was assessed by using the PLUS model. We set up, optimized, and simulated three scenarios for 2030: Business as usual (BAU), Ecological conservation first (ECF), and Economic development first (EDF). The results showed that from 2000 to 2010, the LUCC of SDRBCG was violent, and 15.12% (7084.16 km 2 ) of the land has transformed, mainly caused by the circulation of construction land and farmland, and the land circulation rate decreased from 2010 to 2018. The ESV dropped sharply from 85677.42 million yuan in 2000–78050.77 million yuan in 2015 before rising slightly in 2018. In 18 years, ESV of 49.16% of the land decreased, while ESV of 11.46% increased. In 2030, the ESV of BAU, ECF, and EDF scenarios would be 77437.60, 79630.49, and 76894.29 million yuan. It can be seen that ESV has apparent differences under different policy-oriented. Finally, we identified the regions with significant ESV changes in 2030 by grid analysis. 16.63% of the ECF scenario's areas would show ecological improvement, significantly higher than BAU and EDF. The methods and results of this study can provide valuable data for the management to make urban environmental protection and green sustainable development planning. • Proposed a method of urban space optimization and ecological change prediction coupled with PLUS, MOP and grid analysis. • Analyzed the response of LUCC and ESV by using various visual methods and simulated three development scenarios in 2030. • Found the driving effect of different influencing factors on LUCC. • The optimized result meets the existing policies, fits the reality, and significantly improves the ESV.

Spatial–temporal evolution of ESV and its response to land use change in the Yellow River Basin, China

The value of ecosystem services, as well as their temporal and spatial characteristics, can be used to help areas develop focused and localized sustainable ecological management plans. Thus, this study conducted in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China, analyzed the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its spatial–temporal variation characteristics. This study used the equivalent factor and geospatial exploration methods, introduced the elasticity coefficient, and explored the response of ESV change to land-use change, based on the land use cover data from 1990 to 2020. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, YRB ecosystem service value showed an overall increasing trend, mainly because the ecological construction project increased forest and grasslands in this region. In the past 30 years, spatial characteristics of ESV in YRB was relatively stable. The high-value areas were mainly distributed in the upper Yellow River Basin, while the low-value areas were mainly distributed in the lower Yellow River Basin, as the cold and hot spots were reduced. The ESV barycenter coordinates showed the direction of the transfer trajectory, which is first to southwest, northeast, and then to southwest. From 2000 to 2010, YRB land-use change had greater impact on ESV. Since 2010, the disturbance of ecosystem services by land-use change has decreased. Consequently, the elastic index of the upstream and Loess Plateau regions were significantly higher than that of other regions, and the impact of land-use change on ecosystem services was more obvious, due to improved large-scale ecological construction projects implementation. Conclusively, this study recommends the use of comprehensive spatial–temporal assessment of ESV for sustainable development and ecological protection in the YRB.

Monitoring Changes in Land Use Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Values of Dynamic Saltwater and Freshwater Systems in Coastal Bangladesh by Geospatial Techniques

Assessing and modeling the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) patterns and associated ecosystem service values (ESV) has become an important global agenda for formulating sustainable land management policies. Taking the coastal region of Bangladesh (CRB) as a case study, we utilized remote sensing and GIS techniques to analyze Landsat data of 1999 and 2019 to estimate the effect of LULC changes on the ESVs. The LULC classification, ESV quantification, and spatial variations were performed by semi-automated classification, per-unit value transfer, and spatial autocorrelation techniques, respectively. First, between 1999 and 2019, LULC altered dramatically (agricultural land and coastal wetlands decreased, while all other LULC types increased). Second, the total ESV decreased by 1.87%, which was mostly attributed to a 70% growth in both rural settlement and aquaculture/saltpan, and a 30% decline in both agricultural land and wetlands. Third, significant spatial correlation and moderately high spatial clustering were observed, which consisted mostly of mangrove forests, waterbodies, and wetland zones. Both high-high and low-low values increased, but spatial outliers remained unchanged. Conserving agricultural land should be prioritized in future land use plans of CRB to meet the ever-increasing food demands, control natural land conversion, and make land use sustainable.

Planning and coordinated response mechanism of economic and ecological services in urban expansion

Against the backdrop of urban sustainable development around the world, how to coordinate both economic growth and ecological benefits in urban space becomes an important problem. Therefore, this study simulated and predicted the spatiotemporal changes in urban economy and ecosystem service value (E.S.V.) equivalent ratio under the current policies by 2030, and analysed how adjusting planning policies influences economy and ecology. This process was based on the future land use simulation (F.L.U.S.) model of coupled neural network, and on methods assessing the spatial changes in ecosystem services and land economy. This study aims to analyse urban land economy and E.S.V., and assess how China’s land spatial planning guides and promotes high-quality urban economic development. Results show that artificial intelligence (A.I.) simulation can forecast the results of spatial planning policies of national lands, to make policy-making more forward-looking. The guidance of planning policies on urban expansion accelerates the increase in economic value of urban residential and commercial lands, thereby promoting the economic growth. However, adjusted planning policies may lead to ecological destruction. So, this study provides model verifications and path guidance to realise coordinated sustainable development between economy and ecology, serving as an important reference to formulating proper policies for urban development.

Impact of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the cherangany hills water tower, Kenya

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes alter the ecosystem structure and function, resulting in variations of the Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). This study investigated the impacts of LULC changes on ESVs over 37 years in the Cherangany Hills Water Tower (CHWT) of Kenya. Landsat images from 1985 and 2022 were used to examine historical LULC changes in the CHWT. Supervised classification was carried out using the Random Forest (RF) classifier in R-Studio while ArcGIS desktop software was used for mapping to evaluate the LULC changes. Accuracy assessments were also conducted for each reference year. The estimation of ESVs was done using the Benefit Transfer Approach (BTA), employing modified local value coefficients. Six LULC types (Forest, Cropland, Grassland, Water bodies, Bareland, and Built-up area) were successfully classified, with overall accuracies of more than 92.5% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.91. Our study findings showed an expansion in built-up areas (201.63%), cropland (36.78%), and water bodies (40.05%) whereas grassland, forest, and bareland experienced a reduction in their land areas by 28.26%, 13.38%, and 24.15% respectively between 1985 and 2022 in the CHWT. Consequently, there was an increase in the ESV of cropland while forest and grassland registered a decrease in their ESVs. Overall, the total ESV of the CHWT declined by 7.16% from 121.22 million United States Dollars (USD) in the year 1985 to 112.54 million USD in 2022. As for the individual ESVs, 15 out of the 17 individual Ecosystem Services (ES) registered negative changes in their ESVs. Food production and biological control were the two individual ES with positive ESV changes over the study period. There is a need to curb the current drivers of LULC changes within the water tower, especially the expansion of croplands, to stop further ecosystem degradation for optimum delivery of ES.