Changes In Disability-adjusted Life-years Research Articles

Disease burden of mental disorders among children and adolescents considering both co-morbidities and suicide in Northeastern China

BackgroundFew studies have assessed the burden of mental disorders among children and adolescents considering the impact of co-morbidities and suicide on disability adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsThis was a multicenter cross-sectional study. Our survey data in Liaoning Province (LN) were used to estimate the burden of six mental disorders, supplemented with data from other investigative studies conducted in China to assess four other disorders. DALYs were derived from the sum of years lived with a disability (YLDs) adjusted for co-morbidities, and the years of life lost (YLLs) adjusted for suicide. The changes in DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs were compared with and without adjustment for co-morbidities and suicide.ResultsThe DALYs rate of mental disorders among children and adolescents in LN decreased from 1579.6/105 to 1391.4/105, after adjusting for both co-morbidities and suicide (-11.9%). The DALYs rate for major depression, anxiety disorder, and conduct disorder (-80.8/105, -75.0/105 and -30.2/105, respectively) were the top three contributors to the DALYs reduction (-188.2/105). The YLDs decreased from 72724.8 to 62478.5 after co-morbidity adjustment (-17.8%), mainly due to the reduction by major depression (-35.3%) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD] (-34.2%). The YLLs increased from 130 to 1697.8 after adjusting for suicides (+ 56.9% of all suicide YLLs), mainly due to the contribution of major depression (+ 32.4%) and anxiety disorder (+ 10.4%). Compared to GBD 2010, the estimated DALY rate for mental disorders in LN was to be about 80%, with the proportion of DALYs and DALY rates explained by major depressive disorder accounted for only approximately one-third (14.6% vs. 41.9% and 202.6 vs. 759.9, respectively). But the proportion and absolute level of DALY rates explained by anxiety disorders were approximately 2-fold higher (39.7% vs. 19.6% and 552.2 vs. 323.3, respectively).ConclusionsThe DALYs of mental disorders among Chinese children and adolescents were approximately 80% of the global level, with anxiety disorders imposing about 2 times the global level. Co-morbidity and suicide must be adjusted when calculating DALYs.

Abstract 13595: Sex-Specific Burden of Peripheral Arterial Disease Across the United States: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019

Background: Peripheral arterial disease is a ubiquitous disease that varies in terms of morbidity and mortality due to biologic sex, including the impact of traditional and non-traditional risk factors and sex-specific conditions that adds complexity and contributes to the existing disparities. Thus, understanding the sex-specific trends of PAD in the United States population is critical for developing targeted interventions. We sought to analyze the burden of PAD in male and female patients across the US from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data from 2019, we performed an analysis of the burden of PAD from 1990-2019, across US states. The GBD defined PAD based on studies that used symptom-based criteria and expressed the burden of PAD as the age-standardized prevalence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates. We additionally estimated the regional relative change in DALYs. Results: In 2019, there were 5.4 million males and 7.1 million females with PAD in the US. Absolute PAD prevalence and DALYs increased in both sexes between 1990 and 2019, figure. The 2019 age-standardized prevalence of PAD (per 100,000) in the US in 2019 was 2,124 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 1905-2354), and 2,302 (95% UI: 2,079-2,522) for females. Between 1990 and 2019, females had higher increase in age-standardized PAD DALYs compared with males (13.8% vs 5.5%). Significant state-level geographic variance was noted in age-standardized prevalence of PAD in both sexes (2-fold difference between lowest and highest state), figure. Conclusion: The burden of PAD is increasing in the US owing to the aging population. The absolute prevalence of PAD is higher in women compared with men in the US. Over the past 3 decades, there has been a more significant increase age-standardized PAD DALYs in women as compared with men. Future studies are needed to investigate and target these disparities.

The health and economic benefits of sugar taxation and vegetables and fruit subsidy scenarios in Canada

A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) has been implemented in various jurisdictions. Though research confirmed this tax to reduce sugar consumption and to prevent chronic diseases, it also revealed concerns: one concern relates to the small proportion of sugar in the diet coming from SSBs; and another concern relates to the disproportional tax burden to low-income groups. To inform public health decision makers on alternatives, we examined three ‘real world’ taxation and subsidy scenarios in Canada: 1) a CAD$0.75/100 g tax on SSBs; 2) a CAD$0.75/100 g tax on free sugar in all foods; and 3) a 20% subsidy on vegetables and fruit (V&F). Using national survey data and a proportional multi-state life table-based Markov model, we simulated the changes in disability-adjusted life years, healthcare costs, tax revenue, intervention costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for five income quintiles after implementing the three scenarios, over a lifetime of the 2015 Canadian adult population. The first, second and third scenario would prevent 28,921, 262,348 and 551 cases of type 2 diabetes, respectively. They would avert 752,353, 12,167,113, and 29,447 disability-adjusted life years and save CAD$12,942 million, 149,927 million, and 442 million in health care costs, respectively, over a lifetime. Combining the second and third scenarios would lead to the largest health and economic benefits. Although the lowest income quintile would bear a higher sugar tax burden (0.81% of income, CAD$120/person/year), this would be compensated by a coinciding subsidy on V&F (1.30% of income, CAD$194/person/year). These findings support policies that include a tax on all free sugar in foods and a subsidy on V&F as an effective means to reduce chronic diseases and health care costs. Although the sugar tax was financially regressive, the V&F subsidy could compensate for the tax burden of the disadvantaged groups and improve health and economic equity.

Regional years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for severe mental disorders in Guangdong Province, China: a real-world longitudinal study

BackgroundTo understand the magnitude and spatial–temporal distribution of the regional burden attributable to severe mental disorders is of great essential and high policy relevance. The study aimed to address the burden of severe mental disorders by evaluating the years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Guangdong, China.MethodsWe undertook a longitudinal study based on a multicenter database established by the Health Commission of Guangdong, involving a total of 21 prefectures and four economic regions in the Guangdong province. A total of 520,731 medical records from patients with severe mental disorders were collected for 2010–2020. Data were analyzed via an integrated evaluation framework by synthesizing prevalence estimates, epidemiological adjustment as well as comorbidity assessment to develop internally consistent estimates of DALY. DALY changes during 2010–2020 were decomposed by population growth and aging and further grouped by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). DALYs were projected to 2030 by the weighted median annualized rate of change in 2010–2020.ResultsIn 2010–2020, the average DALYs for severe mental disorders reached 798,474 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 536,280–1,270,465) person-years (52.2% for males, and 47.8% for females). Severe mental disorders led to a great amount of disease burden, especially in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan cities. Schizophrenia and mental retardation with mental disorders were the two leading sources of the burden ascribed to severe mental disorders. Population growth and aging could be accountable for the increasing burden of severe mental disorders. Economic regions with higher SDI carried a greater burden but had lower annualized rates of change in DALYs. The overall burden of severe mental disorders is projected to rise modestly over the next decade.ConclusionsThe findings urge prioritization of initiatives focused on public mental health, prevention strategies, health resources reallocation, and active involvement of authorities to effectively address the anticipated needs.

Exploring static and dynamic relationships between burden of disease and research funding in the United States

BackgroundThe relationship between burden of disease and research funding has been examined cross-sectionally, but temporal patterns have not been investigated. It is logical to assume that temporal improvements in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) reflect benefits from research funding; such assumptions are tempered by an unknown lag time for emergence of benefits from research.MethodsWe studied National Institutes of Health (NIH) research fund allocations and United States DALY estimates for overlapping disease categories (matched disease categories, MDC, N = 38). Using a general linear model, we separately analysed DALYs for MDCs in 2017 in relation to NIH research allocations in 2017 and 2007. We also examined how changes in DALYs were related to cumulative NIH research funding (2006–2017). After regressing DALY change on summed funding, we obtained model residuals as estimates of the discrepancy for each MDC between observed and expected change in burden, given funding.ResultsIn 2017, there was a positive association between NIH research fund allocations and DALYs for the same year (F1,36 = 16.087, p = 0.0002921; slope = 0.35020; model R2 = 0.3088), suggesting proportionate allocation. There was a positive association between 2017 DALYs and 2007 NIH research allocation, implying a beneficial impact of research (F1,36 = 15.754, p = 0.0003; slope = 0.8845; model R2 = 0.3044). In contrast, there was a nonsignificant association between summed NIH funding and percent change in DALYs over 2006–2017 (F1,36 = 0.199; p = 0.65; beta coefficient = −1.144). When MDCs were ordered based on residuals, HIV/AIDS ranked first. Mental, neurologic or substance abuse (MNS) disorders comprised most residuals in the lower half.ConclusionsNIH fund allocation is proportional to DALYs for MDCs. Temporal changes in DALYs vary by MDCs, but they are not significantly related to cumulative research outlays. Further analysis of temporal changes in DALYs could help to inform research outlays for MDCs and to study the impact of research.

Novel foods as red meat replacers – an insight using Risk Benefit Assessment methods (the NovRBA project)

The project entitled “Novel foods as red meat replacers – an insight using Risk Benefit Assessment methods (NovRBA)” aimed to develop and test harmonised Risk Benefit Assessment (RBA) methods to estimate the overall health impact of replacing red meat with an edible insect species (a novel food). Based on an appraisal of insect products that are more likely to be consumed in Europe, project participants decided to compare the consumption of a beef patty consisting of 100% minced beef meat (reference scenario) with a patty in which beef meat would be fully replaced by an edible insect dough (alternative scenario). The target population was adults. The RBA steps included the problem definition, the identification, prioritization and selection of components together with associated health outcomes. The assessment included the selection of dose-response relationships based on their internal validity (hazard characterisation) and an exposure assessment of nutrient intake and exposures to microbiological hazards and compounds of toxicological concern associated with the reference and alternative scenarios. All health outcomes were quantified according to the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) composite metric. The project standardised the pivotal step of selecting model components through developing a tiered approach to prioritise components establishing the “long”, the “short” and the “final” list. The final list comprised thirteen nutrients, two heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria and inorganic arsenic. The RBA model was developed using @Risk® add-in software using Monte Carlo simulations considering variability and/or uncertainty. Overall the expected change in DALYs when moving from the reference scenario to the alternative one was estimated to be around 8,753 DALYs (per 100,000 population) saved in Greece, 6,572 DALYs in Denmark and 21,972 DALYs in France. This is mainly due to the overall beneficial nutritional and microbiological impacts. The proposed actions to communicate the project’s findings can be summarised in providing understandable scientific evidence to policy makers; creating opportunities for consumers to engage in-depth with information about insect consumption; making use of multipliers who enjoy a high level of trust and establishing informational exchange with trusted sources.

Risk-Benefit Assessment of Consumption of Rice for Adult Men in China.

Objective: To evaluate the health impact of current and alternative patterns of rice consumption in Chinese adult men (40–79 years of age).Methods: We applied a risk–benefit assessment (RBA) model that took into account the health effects of selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), and inorganic arsenic (i-As). The health effects included the prevention of prostate cancer associated with exposure to Se, and an increased risk of lung, bladder, and skin cancer for i-As and chronic kidney disease (CKD) for Cd. We defined the baseline scenario (BS) as the current individual mean daily consumption of rice in the population of interest and two alternative scenarios (AS): AS1 = 50 g/day and AS2 = 200 g/day. We estimated the health impact for different age groups in terms of change in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (ΔDALY).Results: The BS of rice consumption was 71.5–105.4 g/day in different age groups of adult men in China. We estimated that for AS1, the mean ΔDALY was −2.76 to 46.2/100,000 adult men of 40–79 years old. For AS2, the mean ΔDALY was 41.3 to 130.8/100,000 individuals in this population group.Conclusion: Our results showed that, based on associated exposure to selenium, cadmium, and i-As in rice, the current consumption of rice does not pose a risk to adult men in China. Also, a lower (50 g/day) or higher (200 g/day) rice consumption will not bring larger beneficial effects.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017

BackgroundThe Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.MethodsBased on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.ResultsPopulation ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (− 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (− 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.ConclusionPopulation ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Predicting U.S. Residential Building Energy Use and Indoor Pollutant Exposures in the Mid-21st Century.

The extent to which climate change and other factors will influence building energy use and population exposures to indoor pollutants is not well understood. Here, we develop and apply nationally representative residential energy and indoor pollutant model sets to estimate energy use, indoor pollutant concentrations, and associated chronic health outcomes across the U.S. residential building stock in the mid-21st century. The models incorporate expected changes in meteorological and ambient air quality conditions associated with IPCC RCP 8.5 and assumptions for changes in housing characteristics and population movements while keeping other less predictable factors constant. Site and source energy consumption for residential space-conditioning are predicted to decrease by ∼37-43 and ∼20-31%, respectively, in the 2050s compared to those in a 2010s reference scenario. Population-average indoor concentrations of pollutants of ambient origin are expected to decrease, except for O3. Holding indoor emission factors constant, indoor concentrations of pollutants with intermittent indoor sources are expected to decrease by <5% (PM2.5) to >30% (NO2); indoor concentrations of pollutants with persistent indoor sources (e.g., volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) are predicted to increase by ∼15-45%. We estimate negligible changes in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost associated with residential indoor pollutant exposures, well within uncertainty, although the attribution among pollutants is predicted to vary.

The burden of low back pain in Brazil: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

BackgroundThe prevalence and burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are growing around the world, and low back pain (LBP) is the most significant of the five defined MSK disorders in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. LBP has been the leading cause of non-fatal health loss for the last three decades. The objective of this study is to describe the current status and trends of the burden due to LBP in Brazil based on information drawn from the GBD 2017 study.MethodsWe estimated prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for LBP by Brazilian federative units, sex, age group, and age-standardized between 1990 and 2017 and conducted a decomposition analysis of changes in age- and sex-specific YLD rates attributable to total population growth and population ageing for the purpose of understanding the drivers of changes in LBP YLDs rates in Brazil. Furthermore, we analyzed the changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rankings for this disease over the period.ResultsThe results show high prevalence and burden of LBP in Brazil. LBP prevalence increased 26.83% (95% UI 23.08 to 30.41) from 1990 to 2017. This MSK condition represents the most important cause of YLDs in Brazil, where the increase in burden is mainly related to increase in population size and ageing. The LBP age-standardized YLDs rate are similar among Brazilian federative units. LBP ranks in the top three causes of DALYs in Brazil, even though it does not contribute to mortality.ConclusionsFindings from this study show LBP to be the most important cause of YLDs and the 3rd leading cause of DALYs in Brazil. The Brazilian population is ageing, and the country has been experiencing a rapid epidemiological transition, which generates an increasing number of people who need chronic care. In this scenario, more attention should be paid to the burden of non-fatal health conditions.

Global Trends and Forecast of the Burden of Adverse Effects of Medical Treatment: Epidemiological Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study.

AimTo quantify and update the years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to the adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) between 1990 and 2017.Subject and methodsWe analyzed the latest dataset from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. We described the burden of AEMT based on the number of DALY. We additionally evaluated the global age and sex-specific DALY and compared the age-standardized rates of DALY across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions from 1990 to 2017.ResultsWorldwide, the total DALYs due to AEMT were 84.93 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 62.52 to 102.21] in 1990 and 62.79 (52.09 to 75.45) in 2017 per 100,000 population. The global percentage of change in DALY showed a negative trend of −26.06 % (−41.52 to −10.59) across all WHO regions between 1990 and 2017. The YLD has increased during the period from 1997 to 2017 by 29.47% (17.87 to 41.06). In 2017, men were affected more than women with a DALY of 66.78 in comparison to 58.91 DALY in women. DALY rates per 100,000 were highest across all the WHO regions in the first years of life. The predicted DALY rates were 59.92 (57.52 to 62.32) in the year 2020, 50.36 (32.03 to 68.70) in 2030, and 40.8 (−1.33 to 82.93) in 2040.ConclusionUsing the GBD 2017 study data, we found a decrease in the DALY rate due to AEMT between 1990 and 2017 with a varying range of DALY between different WHO regions. DALY also differed by age and sex. The forecasting analyses showed a decrease in DALY due to AEMTs with a significant drop in the European region when compared to the African and American regions. However, the increasing trend for YLD signifies an increasing burden of people living with poor health due to AEMT. Our study proposes to identify disability due to AEMT as a significant public health crisis and calls for policymakers to create a robust revised policy.

The relationship between government research funding and the cancer burden in South Korea: implications for prioritising health research

BackgroundIn this study, we aimed to assess health research funding allocation in South Korea by analysing the relationship between government funding and disease burden in South Korea, specifically focusing on cancers.MethodsThe relationship between research funding and the cancer burden, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), was analysed using a linear regression method over a 10-year interval. Funding information on 25 types of cancer was obtained from the National Science and Technology Information Service portal in South Korea. Measures of cancer burden were obtained from Global Burden of Disease studies. The funding predictions were derived from regression analysis and compared with actual funding allocations. In addition, we evaluated how the funding distribution reflected long-term changes in the burden and the burden specific to South Korea compared with global values.ResultsKorean funding in four periods, 2005–2007, 2008–2010, 2011–2013 and 2015–2017, were associated with the cancer burden in 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2013, respectively. For DALYs, the correlation coefficients were 0.79 and 0.82 in 2003 and 2013, respectively, which were higher than the values from other countries. However, the changes in DALYs (1990–2006) were not associated with the funding changes (from 2005 to 2007 to 2015–2017). In addition, the value differences between Korean and global DALYs were not associated with Korean government research funding.ConclusionsAlthough research funding was associated with the cancer burden in South Korea during the last decade, the distribution of research funds did not appropriately reflect the changes in burden nor the differences between the South Korean and global burden levels. The policy-makers involved in health research budgeting should consider not only the absolute burden values for singular years but also the long-term changes in burden and the country-specific burden when they prioritise public research projects.

The public health benefit and burden of mass drug administration programs in Vietnamese schoolchildren: Impact of mebendazole.

BackgroundMass anthelmintic drug administration is recommended in developing countries to address infection by soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH). We quantified the public health benefit of treatment with mebendazole in eight million Vietnamese children aged 5–14 years from 2006 to 2011. This was compared to the environmental impact of the pharmaceutical supply chain of mebendazole, as the resource use and emissions associated with pharmaceutical production can be associated with a public health burden, e.g. through emissions of fine particulate matter.MethodologyThrough Markov modelling the disability due to STH was quantified for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura. For each worm type, four levels of intensity of infection were included: none, light, medium and heavy. The treatment effect on patients was quantified in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The public health burden induced by the pharmaceutical supply chain of mebendazole was quantified in DALYs through Life Cycle Assessment.Principal findingsCompared to ‘no treatment’, the modelled results of five-year treatment averted 116,587 DALYs (68% reduction) for the three worms combined and largely driven by A. lumbricoides. The main change in DALYs occurred in the first year of treatment, after which the results stabilized. The public health burden associated with the pharmaceutical supply chain was 6 DALYs.ConclusionsThe public health benefit of the Mass Drug Administration (MDA) averted substantially more DALYs than those induced by the pharmaceutical supply chain. These results were verified in a sensitivity analysis. The starting prevalence for each worm was the most sensitive model parameter. This methodology is useful for policymakers interested in a holistic approach towards the public health performance of MDA programs, enveloping both the treatment benefit received by the patient and the public health burden associated with the resource consumption and environmental emissions of the pharmaceutical production and supply chain.

The burden of disease in Spain: Results from the Global Burden of Disease 2016

Background and objectivesThe global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. Material and methodsGBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: (1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; (2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and (3) injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. ResultsThere were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959–402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902–17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208–16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. ConclusionLow back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.

La carga de enfermedad en España: resultados del Estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades 2016

Background and objectivesThe global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. Material and methodsGBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: 1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; 2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 3) injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. ResultsThere were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959-402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902-17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208-16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. ConclusionLow back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.FindingsSince 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9–11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3–13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7–17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9–8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1–14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1–14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9–29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.InterpretationIncreasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

The burden of disease attributed to low bone mineral density among population aged ≥40 years old in China, 1990 and 2013

Objective: To identify cause-specific death and attributed burden of low bone mineral density in China among population aged ≥40 years old , 1990 and 2013. Methods: By using data from Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2013, this study analyzed death caused by low mineral density, and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)among population aged 40 and above in China(not including Taiwan, China). This study also analyzed DALY by composition of injury which due to low bone mineral density. It also analyzed changes in DALY by provinces in China, 1990 and 2013. An average world population age-structure for the period 2000- 2025 was adopted to calculate the age standardized rates. Results: In 2013, there were 38.1 thousands male and 30.7 thousands female who aged 40 and above dead due to low bone mineral density in China. The burden of injury caused by low bone mineral density was more sever in male than female, which accounted for 1.525 million DALY in male and 0.873 million DALY in female. In 1990, low bone mineral density attributed transportation and accidental injury caused 0.794 million and 0.567 million DALY losses, respectively. In 2013, low bone mineral density attributed transportation and accidental injury caused 1.421 million and 0.951 million DALY losses, respectively. Compared to 1990, DALY losses caused by transportation and accidental injury, increased by 79.1% and 67.6%, respectively. In 1990, DALY rate losses due to low bone mineral density attributed transportation and accidental injury were 68.1 per 100 000 and 48.7 per 100 000, respectively. In 2013, DALY rate losses due to low bone mineral density attributed transportation and accidental injury were 102.0 per 100 000 and 68.2 per 100 000, respectively. Compared to 1990, DALY rates which caused by transportation and accidental injury, increased by 49.8% and 40.2%, respectively. According to the ranking of standardized DALY rate in 2013 by provinces, the top 3 provinces, which standardized DALYs attributed to low bone mineral density lost the most, were Zhejiang Province(2.6 per 100 000), Jiangsu Province(2.4 per 100 000), and Fujian Province(2.2 per 100 000). Compared to 1990, the standardized rate of DALY decreased in 27 provinces, while the DALY rate increased in only 6 provinces which included Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Hebei Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Henan Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Conclusion: This study found that the burden of health losses attributed to it was higher in men than in women. Compared to 1990, DALY rates decreased in most of the provinces, however, the rates of losses of DALY which caused by transportation and accidental injury were still increasing.

Development of human health damage factors for tropospheric ozone considering transboundary transport on a global scale

Air pollutants such as tropospheric ozone and PM2.5 travel through large areas. The damage factors (DFs) presented by existing researches in life cycle impact assessment do not take into consideration transboundary movement. A previous study used a global chemistry transport model (CTM), to develop health damage factors for ten different regions around the world by considering the transboundary movement of PM2.5. Under the same assessment procedure, this research is designed to calculate the ozone DFs by region and to find the effects of wide range movement on the DFs. The DFs by regions are defined as changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) derived from changes in tropospheric ozone concentration around the world which is induced by an increase in emissions of the unit amount of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). DFs for ten regions are calculated as follows. Firstly, the concentration change of worldwide ozone caused by a change in emission of a substance from one region is estimated with a global scale CTM for both NOx and NMVOC. Secondly, DALY changes on the world due to a change in concentration of ozone are estimated by using population data and epidemiological concentration-response functions for mortality and morbidity. Finally, the above calculations are done for all targeted ten regions. DFs of NOx and NMVOC for ten regions were calculated as 0.3–4.2 × 10−5 DALY/kg and 0.2–5.6 × 10−6 DALY/kg, respectively. It was found DFs might be underestimated around 10 to 70 % by region if the transboundary movement is not taken into consideration. In many regions in the northern hemisphere, about 60 % of damage occurs outside the emission area, which is larger than that of southern hemispheric regions due to a larger population exposed to downwind places. In regions of China and India, however, the influence on other regions accounted for only 10 % because these regions involve larger influences in the source region. The impact of NO titration effect can be seen in cold seasons in many regions, but it was found that the effect is remarkable on an annual average only in Europe, a cold region with large emissions. The human health DFs of NOx and NMVOC considering effects of transboundary movement of tropospheric ozone are estimated for ten regions by using a global CTM. As a future work, it is important to show the interannual sensitivity of the DFs through chronological assessments.

Strengthening the contribution of aquaculture to food and nutrition security: The potential of a vitamin A-rich, small fish in Bangladesh

BackgroundSince 1961, global per capita fish consumption has nearly doubled. Much of the increase has been due to aquaculture. Bangladesh, the world's eighth largest fish producing country, has been part of this transformation. Despite having vitamin A supplementation and fortification programs, the prevalence of inadequate vitamin A intake (IVAI) in Bangladesh is very high, estimated to be 60%. The promotion of a small indigenous fish, high in vitamin A – mola carplet – offers a promising food-based approach to improving vitamin A status of the 98% of Bangladeshis who eat fish. The objective of this paper was to conduct a benefit–cost analysis of a national household pond Mola Promotion Program (MPP) in Bangladesh. MethodsUsing the 2005 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and nutrition and health statistics, we developed baseline estimates of usual vitamin A intake, the prevalence of IVAI and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to vitamin A deficiency (VAD). Drawing on a WorldFish project and HIES data, we designed and modeled the implementation of a MPP, and calculated the additional vitamin A intake it would provide, calculated new incidence rates of VAD-related health outcomes and estimated MPP-attributable annual changes in DALYs. The MPP's total health benefits were calculated over the program's 11-year phase-in as the annual sum of DALYs saved. The MPP's costs were estimated as the sum of the costs of a small fish program of the Fisheries Development Program plus the costs of mola brood stock, other inputs and additional farmer training-related costs. Program costs and benefits were combined to produce estimates of the cost-effectiveness of the program. ResultsAn 11-year, $23 million project would increase average daily vitamin A intakes by 7μg retinol activity equivalent (RAE), reduce the prevalence of IVAI by 1.1 percentage points, and save 3000 lives and 100,000 DALYs, at a cost of $194 per DALY saved. The MPP's impact would be concentrated among homestead pond-fishing households that would consume 60% of the additional mola produced. Among these, it would reduce IVAI prevalence by 7 percentage points. If the MPP was implemented for at least 20years, it would dominate – have higher health benefits and lower total costs – than a national vitamin A wheat flour fortification program. ConclusionBy World Bank and World Health Organization criteria, the MPP is a cost-effective approach to reduce the burden of micronutrient malnutrition in Bangladesh.

Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland: A health-effectiveness comparison study

BackgroundLocal strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. ObjectiveTo assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. MethodsWe modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. ResultsUnder the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. ConclusionThe planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.