Changes In Credit Conditions Research Articles

The demand for agricultural credit in central Chile

PurposeThe design of effective policies that increase access to agricultural credit should consider understanding credit constraint farmers’ groups and their response to changes in the credit conditions. To contribute to this understanding, this study surveyed farmers from Chile and classified them into five credit constraint categories discussed in credit literature. In addition, these farmers indicated how they would react to a series of hypothetical conditions related to changing interest rates, loan maturity and grace periods. Their responses were employed to measure credit demand scores (i.e. relative elasticities). Regression tests evaluated how different types of farmers reacted to changing credit conditions.Design/methodology/approachFarmers from Chile were surveyed using a mix of random and convenience sampling. Surveyed farmers were classified into five credit constraint categories proposed by previous research. Farmers rated their demand for credit on a five-point Likert-type scale for hypothetical changes in interest rates, loan maturities and grace periods. Their responses were employed to measure credit demand scores or relative credit elasticities. The study evaluated credit elasticity as a function of farmers’ credit constraint and some control variables using several regressions, including OLS, ordered probit and hierarchical regression.FindingsThe study identified 44% unconstrained nonborrowing farmers, 23% unconstrained borrowers, 14% quantity-constrained, 16% risk-constrained and 3% transaction cost-constrained farmers. Unconstrained borrowers and quantity-constrained farmers responded most to changing interest rates and loan maturity conditions. In addition, unconstrained nonborrowers and risk-constrained farmers were statistically less sensitive to changes in credit conditions than unconstrained borrowers. This finding is significant because, as discussed, unconstrained nonborrowers represent 44% of our sample. Furthermore, risk-constrained farmers were the least sensitive to changes in interest rates and loan maturity across all other credit categories.Practical implicationsThis study gives insights that can guide agribusiness policies to enhance access to credit in developing countries such as Chile. Agricultural credit capital institutions can better target their clientele by identifying farmers’ possible reactions before implementing policy changes to increase access to credit. This study’s credit constraint categorization and the results discussed can guide that identification. For instance, policies directed toward unconstrained borrowing farmers may find positive responses. However, implementing policies targeting the other three groups (unconstrained nonborrowing, risk-constrained and transaction cost-constrained farmers) is more challenging because these farmers are less responsive to changing credit conditions.Originality/valueThis article correlates farmers’ propensity to borrow and credit constraints across five categories of farmers. Prior research using this categorization framework has not identified farmers into the five groups. Furthermore, in addition to interest rate and loan maturity credit demand relative elasticity, this study adds the grace period elasticity, which has not been included in previous studies on agricultural credit.

Productivity Debacle in the UK: Do Post‐crisis Firm Cohorts Explain the Performance Puzzle?

AbstractThis paper investigates how the aftermath of the 2008 crisis affected firm productivity in the UK, focusing particularly on the cohort effect of firms established after 2008 – a previously overlooked aspect of the crisis – as well as the interaction with access to credit, which we test using firm‐specific and time‐varying credit scores. For identification, a matched sample is used based on credit score, firm age, size and ownership status, combining propensity score matching with difference‐in‐differences. While we find evidence that smaller firm size and changes in credit conditions affect productivity, about half of the difference in productivity remains unexplained. When we extend the matching analysis to examine across sectors and cohorts, we find that the low productivity performance during the years 2011–2016 is driven primarily by newer firms in the services sector, rather than in manufacturing. Within services, the underlying productivity puzzle is driven by a cessation of output growth in high‐productivity financial services, while abundant labour supply has led to a ‘levelling down’ of performance of newer firms in other services, converging towards the relatively low‐productivity manufacturing.

EFFECTS OF NEOLIBERAL ECONOMY ON HOUSING MARKET IN TURKEY

Housing could be defined as a shelter, a place where the needs of daily life are met, a living space for individuals. In countries such as Turkey, where the neoliberal economic model is implemented, housing; is seen as a “commodity” in addition to its functions. Considering the house as a commodity makes it an important economic subject. For this reason, the relationship between the economy and the housing market is important. In this study, the short-term effects of the neoliberal economic model, which is one of the determinants of the housing market in Turkey, between 2020:1 and 2021:9 were investigated. Changes in credit conditions, annual interest rates, demographic situation, and exchange rates in the aforementioned period; evaluated in the context of housing production and housing market within the conditions of the period. In the study, the effects of the neoliberal economic model on the housing market; Credit conditions, annual interest rates, demographics, and changes in exchange rates were interpreted with the support of literature review and statistical data. The main purpose of the study is to express that the continuity of any structure that does not meet the social needs is not possible for society.

Impact of credit market conditions on agriculture productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa

PurposeThis study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between credit market conditions and agriculture output in Sub-Saharan Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a two-stage least square instrumental variable and difference generalised method of moments dynamic panel model because potential reverse causation and endogeneity are addressed.FindingsThe findings show that better credit market conditions contribute to agriculture productivity. The results also show that better infrastructure and availability of agriculture inputs are associated with productivity improvements. The empirical results are robust when an alternative measure of agriculture productivity is used.Research limitations/implicationsAn important research agenda for future studies will be to consider alternative measures of credit market conditions and other intervening variables that influence the nexus. Besides, other methods that account for cross-sectional dependence could also be considered as the impact of credit on agriculture varies across the sub-regions.Practical implicationsThe findings make a case for enhancing credit market access to boost agriculture productivity. There is also a need to implement financial education programs for farmers and ensuring continuous engagement with farmers.Originality/valueAlthough the issue of agriculture finance has been well documented in the literature, few studies have estimated the elasticity of agriculture productivity to changes in credit conditions. Also, our consideration of the intervening role of infrastructure amongst others is an area that has remained relatively unexplored.

Inflation at Risk

We investigate how macroeconomic drivers affect the predictive inflation distribution as well as the probability that inflation will run above or below certain thresholds over the near term. This is what we refer to as Inflation-at-Risk–a measure of the tail risks to the inflation outlook. We find that the recent muted response of the conditional mean of inflation to economic conditions does not convey an adequate representation of the overall pattern of inflation dynamics. Analyzing data from the 1970s reveals ample variability in the conditional predictive distribution of inflation that remains even when focusing on the post-2000 period of stable and low mean inflation. We also document that in the United States and in the Euro Area tight financial conditions carry substantial downside inflation risks, a feature overlooked by much of the literature. Our paper offers a new empirical perspective to existing macroeconomic models, showing that changes in credit conditions are also key to understand the dynamics of the inflation tails.

Drivers of the great housing boom‐bust: Credit conditions, beliefs, or both?

AbstractTwo potential driving forces of house price fluctuations are commonly cited: credit conditions and beliefs. We posit some simple empirical calculations using direct measures of credit conditions and beliefs to consider their potentially distinct roles in house price fluctuations at the aggregate level. Changes in credit conditions are positively related to the fraction of riskier nonconforming debt in total mortgage lending, while measures of beliefs are unrelated to this ratio. Credit conditions explain quantitatively large magnitudes of the variation in quarterly house price growth and also predict future house price growth. Beliefs bear some relation to contemporaneous house price growth but have little predictive power. A structural vector autoregression analysis implies that exogenous changes in credit conditions have quantitatively important dynamic causal effects on house price changes.

Frictional Goods Markets: Theory and Applications

Abstract We analyse dynamic general equilibrium models with more-or-less directed search by informed buyers and random search by uninformed buyers. This nests existing specifications and generates new insights. A quantitative application concerns the welfare cost of inflation, which is known to be quite high with pure random search and low with pure directed search. Our calibration implies the impact of inflation is fairly low, in part because, in addition to the usual costs, it provides benefits by more heavily taxing high-price sellers that inefficiently profit from exploiting the uninformed. Other applications analyse analytically and numerically changes in credit conditions and information.

A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market

This paper shows that a macro model with segmented financial markets can generate sizable movements in housing prices in response to changes in credit conditions. We establish theoretically that reductions in mortgage rates always have a positive effect on prices, whereas the relaxation of loan-to-value constraints has ambiguous effects. A quantitative version of the model under perfect foresight accounts for about one-half of the observed price increase in the United States in the 2000s. When we include shocks to expectations about housing finance conditions, the model’s ability to match house values improves significantly. The framework reconciles the observed disconnect between house prices and rents since, in general equilibrium, financial shocks can decrease rents and increase prices. (JEL E44, G21, R31)

Sector heterogeneity and credit market imperfections in emerging markets

This paper shows that the impact of country interest rate shocks on emerging markets' economic activities can be associated with credit market imperfections affecting principally non-tradable activities. I present novel evidence documenting that tradable and non-tradable activities respond asymmetrically to changes in credit conditions in emerging markets. I show that country interest rate shocks are amplified through non-tradable activities, and that local credit substantially explains their output growth. Unlike the non-tradable sector, tradable activities are not significantly affected by changes in local credit conditions. To rationalize these findings, I introduce a small open economy model with heterogeneous access to international borrowing that accounts for the asymmetric response of tradable and non-tradable activities.

Frictional Goods Markets: Theory and Applications

We develop an equilibrium model consistent with several features of retail trade: there is price dispersion; markups are high and variable; there is some random and some directed search; buyers use both money and credit; sellers post prices but may also bargain. Money and credit coexist because the former (latter) bears the inflation tax (transaction costs). Other phenomena arise due to informational heterogeneity and the combination of random plus directed search. Theory delivers sharp qualitative predictions. Calibration yields quantitative results consistent with facts. We discuss policy, and quantify the welfare effects of inflation, information frictions and changes in credit conditions.

Sector Heterogeneity and Credit Market Imperfections in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that the impact of country interest rate shocks on emerging markets’ economic activities can be associated with credit market imperfections affecting principally non-tradable activities. I present novel evidence documenting that tradable and non-tradable activities respond asymmetrically to changes in credit conditions in emerging markets. I show that country interest rate shocks are amplified through non-tradable activities, and that local credit substantially explains their output growth. Unlike the non-tradable sector, tradable activities are not significantly affected by changes in local credit conditions. To rationalize these findings, I introduce a small open economy model with heterogeneous access to international borrowing that accounts for the asymmetric response of tradable and non-tradable activities.

Demand and Supply of Mortgage Credit

This paper estimates demand and supply of mortgage credit by using a hierarchical trend model. The empirical analysis is based on loan-level data covering the years 2005-2014 in the Netherlands. We find that high-income households take out higher loan amounts and have higher collateral values. Interest rates are negatively related to both loan amounts and collateral values. The common trend in the loan equation, a proxy for the changes in demand and supply of mortgage credit over time, suggests a large decline in mortgage demand and supply after 2007. The common trend in the collateral value equation is highly correlated with the common trend in the loan equation, suggesting a high pass-through rate of changes in credit conditions from loan to value. We also find that young household cohorts can afford to buy better quality houses in 2014 than in 2005, even if they could borrow less. On the contrary, older household cohorts take out higher loans in 2014 than in 2005, but their collateral values do not change. We argue that younger households took up less mortgage debt as they became more credit constraint over time. Older households on the other hand suffered from negative home equity, forcing them to take up higher mortgage loans.

Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model

We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central-bank determined changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of changes in credit conditions, such as shocks to M2 or lending levels, do not once other policy variables are taken into account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies.

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of changes in credit conditions, such as shocks to M2 or lending levels, do not once other policy variables are taken into account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies.

Demand for Debt and Equity Before and After the Financial Crisis

Supply and demand responses to financial crises result in fluctuations in credit flow to the private sector. Policy makers concerned with the sustainability and growth of viable firms should disaggregate these responses. Utilizing firm level data, this study investigates characteristics of firms applying for external finance before and after the financial crisis, along with characteristics of successful applicants. Notwithstanding changes in credit conditions, salient features of external financing demand endure across the period, including ownership, asset structure, age and size. Failure to secure debt in an earlier period does not deter firm owners from applying for loans in a subsequent period. Evidence suggests that the most financially distressed firms are suffering the greatest consequences of the credit crunch.

Demand for debt and equity before and after the financial crisis

Supply and demand responses to financial crises result in fluctuations in credit flow to the private sector. Policy makers concerned with the sustainability and growth of viable firms should disaggregate these responses. Utilising firm level data, this study investigates characteristics of firms applying for external finance before and after the financial crisis, along with characteristics of successful applicants. Notwithstanding changes in credit conditions, salient features of external financing demand endure across the period, including ownership, asset structure, age and size. Failure to secure debt in an earlier period does not deter firm owners from applying for loans in a subsequent period. Evidence suggests that the most financially distressed firms are suffering the greatest consequences of the credit crunch.

Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks

We document the cyclical properties of US firms' financial flows and show that equity payout is procyclical and debt payout is countercyclical. We then develop a model with debt and equity financing to explore how the dynamics of real and financial variables are affected by “financial shocks.” We find that financial shocks contributed significantly to the observed dynamics of real and financial variables. The recent events in the financial sector show up as a tightening of firms' financing conditions which contributed to the 2008–2009 recession. The downturns in 1990–1991 and 2001 were also influenced by changes in credit conditions. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G01, G32)

An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads Between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market

This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical prediction that bond spreads and CDS spreads move together in the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run this relationship does not always hold. My study shows that the deviation is largely due to different responses of the two markets to changes in credit conditions. In particular, the CDS market appears to move ahead of the bond market in price discovery.

Consumer Credit Conditions in the United Kingdom

It is widely perceived that credit supply conditions faced by UK consumers, particularly in the mortgage market, have been liberalised since the late 1970s, with implications for the housing market and consumer spending. This paper examines quarterly microdata from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders to learn about changes in credit conditions from loan to value ratios (LVRs) and loan to income ratios (LIRs) of first-time buyers (classified by region and age). It combines data on the proportions of high LVR and high LIR loans with aggregate information on UK consumer credit and mortgage debt to give ten quarterly series for 1975-2001. These are modelled in a ten-equation system. A comprehensive set of economic and demographic influences on the demand and supply of credit, applying relevant sign restrictions, are controlled for. A single time-varying index of credit conditions captures the common variation in the ten credit indicators which cannot be explained by the economic and demographic controls. The broad coverage of credit market indicators and thorough investigation of economic forces driving the credit market should make the resulting credit conditions index more robust than previous estimates. The index increases in the 1980s, peaking towards the end of the decade. It retraces part of this rise in the early 1990s, before increasing again to levels, for one of the two measures, exceeding the previous peak. The index is useful in modelling consumption and the housing market, and in interpreting current monetary conditions. An important by-product of the paper is the model for consumer credit and mortgage debt developed here.

Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables

In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data.