Changes In Annual Cycle Research Articles

The phase change in the annual cycle of sea surface temperature

In recent decades, many research efforts focused on global climate change, multidecadal, decadal, interannual variability, and the increasing extreme events of sea surface temperature. In contrast, the continuous evolution of the reference frame, the annual cycle of SST used to quantify the aforementioned variability and changes, has long been overlooked, resulting in difficulties in understanding the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for these variability and changes. In this study, we strive to bridge this gap on the phase changes in SST annual cycle. By devising a running correlation-based method, we can now quantify the non-sinusoidal shape of the evolving SST annual cycle, such as the advancing or delaying of summer and winter peaking times. It is revealed that the varying phases of summer or winter are more closely linked to multidecadal SST variability than to long-term climate change. Both the systematic shift of the phase and alterations in the annual cycle shape contribute to the phase changes, which explain 0.4~1.0 °C of monthly SST anomaly with respect to the climatological annual cycle in a multidecadal timescale. Furthermore, it is evident that the SST phases in historical simulations are better captured in winter than in summer and exhibit stronger variation compared with observation.

The role of semiannual cycle in modulating seasonality changes of surface air temperature over China and its mechanism

Taking the semiannual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) into account in fitting the finer structure of the seasonal cycle, this study reveals the specific role of the semiannual cycle in modulating variations of the season onsets and lengths for the first time. The time-varying amplitudes and phases of the annual and semiannual SAT cycle for the period 1964 to 2017 in China are extracted from daily observations based on harmonic analysis. The results show that the phase differences between the two harmonics remain essentially unchanged, while the amplitude ratio of the semiannual to annual harmonics tends to increase after 1988. This enhanced semiannual cycle together with the global warming and annual cycle changes jointly led to a much longer summer with an average speed of 7.45 days/10 years and shorter spring, autumn, and winter with speeds of − 2.43, − 1.63, and − 4.26 days/10 years, respectively. Such obvious asymmetry cannot be found in fitting seasonal cycles by only annual harmonics. The average absolute percentages of the linear trends of season onsets and lengths caused by the intensification of the semiannual cycle are 52.63% and 78.66%. It indicates that season onsets and length not only depend on the phase of annual and semiannual harmonic, but also highly related to the strength of semiannual cycle. The time evolutions of semiannual cycle strength in China are found to be significantly correlated to the meridional temperature advection. The anomalous stronger southward wind in December can result in colder temperature and hence intensify the semiannual component.

Internal anatomy and ultrastructure of the male reproductive organization of the Sesarmid crab Muradium tetragonum (1798)—(Decapoda: Brachyura)

AbstractSesarmid crab, Muradium tetragonum, considered a key detritus consumer plays a significant role in the nutrient cycling and energy flow in most of the mangrove environments. Morphological and ultrastructural organization of the M. tetragonum male reproductive system are characterized through transmission electron microscopic studies. Adult males (3.2–4.2 cm) with dark violet carapace and white‐tipped cheliped were procured alongside the coastal areas of Tanjavur district, Tamil Nadu, India. The morphological analysis highlights the male gonads to be bilaterally symmetrical and anterolaterally located inside the cephalothorax. A pair of elongated testes lying attached to the hypodermis of the carapace leads to a long highly coiled vas deferens categorized into three distinct regions (Proximal vas deferens, Middle vas deferens and distal vas deferens) structurally and functionally with Posterior vas deferens receiving sac‐like accessory glands. It gets followed by an ejaculatory duct and ends with the penile papillae at the coxae's base of the fifth peripod. Structural modifications were observed in the ultrastructure of vas deferens envisage (considering) its functional role in storing spermatophores, active absorption and assisting the secretory activity. Spermatophores, witnessed as spherical bodies are bounded by a dense double wall. Aflagellate, immotile and spherical spermatozoa that measuring 3.6 μm in diameter encompasses a complex acrosome cupped by a nucleus. Moreover, perforatorium and the extending nuclear arms with chromatin, as displayed in the experimental organism M. tetragonum, are in synergy with that of certain brachyurans as specified in the study. Hence, the current study assessing the morphology and ultrastructure parameters of the male gonads could be useful in understanding the physiology of sexual maturation, annual cyclic changes, tracing the phylogenetic relationship among species and enhancing the brood‐stock management.

A comprehensive overview of ovarian small non-coding RNAs in the late overwintering and breeding periods of Onychostoma macrolepis

The development of the ovary of Onychostoma macrolepis undergoes distinct annual cyclic changes in which small non-coding RNAs (sncRNAs) could play vital roles. In this study, four sncRNA classes in the ovary, including miRNA, piRNAs, tsRNA, and rsRNAs, were systematically profiled by high-throughput sequencing. In adult ovaries of O. macrolepis, 247 miRNAs and 235 tsRNAs were identified as differentially expressing in the late overwintering period (in March) and breeding period (in June). Some up-regulated sncRNAs in March, such as miR-125-1 and tRFi-Lys-CTT-1, could be involved in inhibiting biomolecule metabolism and enhancing stress tolerance during the overwintering period. Compared with the level expression of sncRNAs in March, some sncRNAs were up-regulated in June, such as miR-146-1 and tRFi-Gly-GCC-1, and could be involved in influencing molecular synthesis and metabolism, enhancing oocyte proliferation and maturation, accelerating ovarian development, and increasing fertilization of oocytes by regulating related target mRNAs. The results suggested that sncRNAs in the ovary of Onychostoma macrolepis not only reflect characteristics of the fish's physiology at different developmental periods, but also directly affect ovarian development and oocyte maturation during the breeding period. In conclusion, these results significantly advance our understanding of the roles of sncRNA during overwintering and reproduction periods, and provide a novel perspective for uncovering characteristics of the special overwintering ecology and reproductive physiology of an atypical cavefish.

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

ABSTRACTIn the context of widely reported climate change over the mountainous region, the present work addresses the notable changes in the seasonal precipitation dynamics over the NWH region under two different future warming scenarios [socioeconomic pathway 245 (SSP245) and socio economic pathway 585 (SSP585)]. Using three coupled climate models which participated in the Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we focus on the alterations of the spatio‐temporal pattern of solid and liquid precipitation in respective seasons under future warming (2066–2100) scenarios with respect to the historical time period (1981–2014). Intercomparative validation of the CMIP6 data sets has been carried out against the GPCP and ERA‐5 reanalysis datasets where the multimodel mean (MMM) product has performed well (r value = 0.63) compared with the individual model outputs in the historical scenario for last 35 years (1981–2014). Therefore, MMM has been used for analysis. Statistically robust K–S test suggests a remarkable variation in the cumulative distribution of the precipitation across the NWH region at 95% confidence level in both of the future warming scenarios as compared with the historical time period. Furthermore, significant increase in the JJAS rainfall (~25–30%) and decrease in the DJF snowfall (~20–25%) has been observed for ssp585 scenario whereas no significant results are noted under ssp245 scenario. Remarkable variations in the surface temperature distribution, large scale wind circulation pattern and mesoscale hydrometeorological balance under the warmest scenario (SSP585) elucidate the reason behind the noteworthy changes in the precipitation dynamics reflected from the normalized precipitation index (NPI) and changes in annual cycle and therefore illustrates the possibility of more extreme precipitation years in future. The overall investigation reflects the possible effect of climate change over the NWH region pertaining to the dynamics of the South West Monsoon and Western Disturbances.

Cold temperature increases nitrate accumulation in pilot-scale surface flow constructed wetlands with high rates of nitrogen removal

Nitrogen dynamics were studied over 3 years in pilot-scale surface flow constructed wetlands (SFCWs) treating three strengths of ammonium-rich swine wastewater. A high removal rate of ammonium (1.2–2.9 g m−2 d−1) and total nitrogen (1.5–3.5 g m−2 d−1) was achieved from highstrength wastewater in the SFCWs. Nitrate concentration was significantly higher (p < 0.01) in the effluent than in the influent, and the increased nitrate concentration did not significantly affect ammonium removal in the SFCWs. The effluent nitrate concentration showed annual cyclical changes and could be described using a harmonic regression equation over time (y = a + b sin (2π/365.25 t + c); R2 = 0.152–0.566). The multiple regression equation (R2 = 0.200–0.551) indicated that water temperature and oxidation reduction potential were the primary factors affecting nitrate accumulation in the SFCWs. The abundance of nitrification functional genes (amoA in ammonia-oxidizing archaea and bacteria) was higher in spring and winter than in summer. The abundance of denitrification functional genes (narG, nirK, nirS, and nosZ) was higher in summer than in spring and winter. At cold temperatures (5–10 °C), nitrate accumulated significantly in the water column rather than in the sediments and the potential nitrification rates increased slightly, suggesting the importance of nitrogen transformation in the water column during nitrogen removal. These results are helpful for selecting targeted seasonal intensification strategies to improve the SFCWs performance.

Dynamics of indices of metabolism in muscle tissue, liver and gonads of Abramis brama in different periods of the annual cycle

The aim of this research was to study the dynamics of metabolism in the body of bream Abramis brama (L.) at different periods of the annual cycle: pre-spawning, spawning, post-spawning and feeding. The object of the study was 55 male and 53 female bream aged 9–13 years, to reduce the effect of age on the studied parameters. Individuals were measured, weighed, gender was determined, gonad maturity stage, age; the condition factor and organ indices were calculated. The content of moisture, dry matter, lipids, proteins, ash and nitrogen-free extracts (NFE) in the muscles, liver and gonads of male and female bream have been analyzed. The lowest coefficients of condition factor were found in bream during the autumn feeding season, the highest in males during spawning, in females before and after spawning. In the muscle tissue of male and female bream the content of metabolic products in the feeding period and before spawning differed slightly. In the spawning period, the muscles of males exceeded the muscle tissue of females in lipid content by more than two times. In the annual cycle of the bream, the ovaries contain more protein than the testes. The bream of different sex revealed differences in the intensity of metabolic processes during the maturation of gonads: in males, energy costs are more pronounced after wintering before spawning, while in females, during spawning. The main energy reserve in the form of lipids in the annual cycle changes more significantly in the body of male bream than in females. Ovarian maturation requires more metabolite reserves than maturation of the testes, however, males have increased expenditure associated with reproductive behaviour during spawning. Therefore, the total energy contribution to reproduction may be the same for female and for male bream. Bream’s liver and muscle tissue can serve as a source of energy during food shortages and during spawning. In the annual cycle, the condition factor of bream increases due to an increase in the moisture content in the muscles.

Dynamics of the annual cycle changes in the bioavailable phosphorus forms share in excess sludge

Dynamics of the annual cycle changes in the bioavailable phosphorus forms share in excess sludge

When and where mortality occurs throughout the annual cycle changes with age in a migratory bird: individual vs population implications

The annual cycle of most animals is structured into discrete stages, such as breeding, migration and dispersal. While there is growing appreciation of the importance of different stages of an organism’s annual cycle for its fitness and population dynamics, almost nothing is known about if and how such seasonal effects can change through a species lifespan. Here, we take advantage of the opportunity offered by a long-term satellite/GPS-tracking study and a reliable method of remote death-detection to show that certain stages of both the annual and life cycle of a migratory long-lived raptor, the Black kite Milvus migrans, may represent sensitive bottlenecks for survival. In particular, migratory journeys caused bursts of concentrated-mortality throughout life, but the relative importance of stage-specific survival changed with age. On the other hand, the balance between short-stages of high mortality and long-stages of low mortality made population-growth similarly dependent on all portions of the annual cycle. Our results illustrate how the population dynamics of migratory organisms can be inextricably linked to ecological pressures balanced over multiple stages of the annual cycle and thus multiple areas of the globe, suggesting the frequent need for challenging conservation strategies targeting all portions of a species year-round range.

The sensitivity of climatological SST to slab ocean model thickness

A pronounced tropical cooling (> 4 °C) and high-latitude warming in the annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology is found in a numerical experiment conducted with a coupled model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in which the time-independent SOM thickness is reduced by a factor of two. The results suggest that biases in the ocean mixed layer depth could be contributing to SST biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. These changes in annual mean SST are noteworthy since in simple climate models the SOM thickness controls the amplitude and phase of the SST annual cycle, but it plays no role in determining the annual mean SST. Results from the numerical experiment indicate that halving of the SOM thickness not only changes annual cycle amplitude but results in asymmetrical changes in the annual cycle that rectify onto annual mean SST. The changed SOM thickness is found to primarily affect the surface net solar flux and latent heat flux components. However, due to the SOM equilibrium energy budget constraint, the annual mean net surface heat flux does not change, and the solar and latent heat fluxes changes compensate for each other. There is no such constraint on the annual cycle of heat fluxes, where the solar and latent components act to reinforce each other over much of the ocean, with the notable exception of the tropic Pacific warm pool region. We investigate the influence of the amplitude of the SST annual cycle on the annual mean SST through the net surface heat flux and its components using a two-step approach. First, two prescribed SST AGCM simulations are carried out, both with the annual mean SST of the full-thickness SOM coupled model simulation: one forced with the SST annual cycle of the full-thickness SOM coupled simulation, and the other forced with the SST annual cycle of the half-thickness SOM coupled simulation. Second, the impacts of these changes in the annual cycle on the annual mean SST are assessed in a full-thickness AGCM-SOM coupled simulation forced by the net, annual-mean, surface heat flux changes produced by the SST annual cycle changes in the first step. It is found that these net surface heat flux changes can largely reproduce the annual mean SST sensitivity to SOM thickness found in the coupled SOM thickness halving experiment. The effects on the annual mean heat flux components and annual mean SST from changes in the SOM thickness in an idealized limiting case are also considered.

Zooplankton dynamics in a highly eutrophic microtidal estuary

Mesozooplankton was sampled seasonally in a large microtidal estuary (Peel-Harvey) suffering from massive macroalgal growths and cyanobacterial blooms. Comparisons with other estuaries indicate that eutrophication led to copepod abundance declining and macroalgal-associated species increasing. Mesozooplankton species are almost exclusively autochthonous, i.e. spend entire life cycle within the estuary. Meroplanktonic species are virtually absent because main benthic macroinvertebrate species undergo direct benthic rather than planktotrophic development. There are also few abundant holoplanktonic species. Most species are tychoplanktonic, i.e. benthic and transported into plankton through physical disturbance of sediment. Species number, concentration and Simpson's Index are greater during night than day. Annual cyclical changes in species composition are related closely to changes in salinity. At the most degraded site, nematode concentrations were high and the species number and concentration changed markedly during extreme eutrophication, when oxygen concentrations were low, disrupting annual cyclical changes in species composition.

HISTOMORPHOLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE BRAIN IN RELATION TO OVARIAN CYCLE OF FRESHWATER CRAB, BARYTELPHUSA CUNICULARIS

Ovarian maturation by neurosecretory cells in the brain of freshwater crab, Barytelphusa cunicularis have been examined. The histological scrutiny of the brain of Barytelphusa cunicularis related with three types (A, B and C) of neurosecretory cells, which are classified on the basis of size, shape and tinctorial characters. All these types of cells marked annual cyclic changes of cytoplasmic material in association with ovarian cycle. The activity of these cells has been correlated with the ovarian cycle. They are distinguishable by their size, nature locations, shape, nucleus position, cell measure and the secretory product in the cytoplasm. The result indicates that the neurosecretory A, B and C cells of the brain seen involved in the process of mating ovulation. The neurosecretory materials staining intensity index of these cells is described.

Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15–20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

The weather dictates the rhythms: Alpine chamois activity is well adapted to ecological conditions

Activity rhythms play an important role in the ecological relations of a species and form part of its evolutionary adaptation. Such rhythms are strongly synchronised with the annual cyclic changes by environmental stimuli, the so-called zeitgebers. Animals’ reliance on environmental stimuli is highly species-specific and allows behavioural adjustments to be made in preparation for the conditions expected in each season. We investigated daily and annual activity rhythms of Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) by analysing high-resolution data of animals monitored with GPS collars. This first detailed field study of chamois activity showed that this species exhibited clear daily and annual activity rhythms entrained to the light-dark cycle. Chamois were more active during spring-summer and less active during winter, likely in response to the variation in the availability of food resources: both sexes appeared to maximise energy intake during the season offering the highest amount of food resources to compensate for poor food supply during winter. Daily activity was influenced by the climatic factors considered. We showed a negative correlation between daily activity and adverse climatic conditions (i.e. precipitation and, during winter, snow depth). As activity was strongly influenced by the interplay between temperature and wind throughout the year and by radiation and wind in winter, we conjectured that it was critically dependent upon animals’ thermal balance. In conclusion, our study highlighted that chamois is well adapted to the Alpine environment and seasonality but also raised questions about its ability to adapt to future climate change. In this study, we investigated the effects of ecological factors on Alpine chamois activity. Thanks to radio collars with accelerometers, we obtained highly detailed information on activity levels of wild animals. We found that chamois were more active during spring-summer (i.e. the seasons with the highest quality and quantity of food) and less active during winter. Our results showed that chamois activity was strongly influenced by such climatic factors as temperature, precipitation and wind speed. In winter time, chamois activity increased during the days with high solar radiation and decreased with high snow depth. Given their wide distribution in the Alps, chamois can be considered as a sentinel species of Alpine habitats. Thus, our results on the current relationship between climate and chamois behaviour may shed light on the animals’ ability to track and adapt to climate change.

华北地区对流层臭氧长期变化趋势及影响因子分析

The tropospheric ozone is an important pollutant composition and greenhouse gas, of which the generation process is often closely related to the photochemical reaction of pollutant gases discharged by human activities, thereby leading to great influences on global climate change, human health, plant and crop growth, and so on. In this paper, long-time series of tropospheric ozone datasets for the period of 1979-2013 are used to investigate the long-term trends of the tropospheric ozone in northern China, and quantitatively assess the influences of major impact factors on ozone changes, while combining the effects analysis of tropopause height change on the column of the tropospheric ozone during the same period. From the decadal scale, it can be seen that the tropospheric ozone long-term trends in northern China over 30 years showed significant differences in the different seasons. Among them, the summer tropospheric ozone presented a growth trend with the growth rate of 1.28 DU/10 a, while the winter data showed a downward trend with the decline rate of 1.46 DU/10 a, and spring and autumn showed volatility characteristics and downward trend in their fluctuations. From the distribution of the different months of the year, it can be seen that the maximum occurred in the summer, commonly at 50 DU, followed by the mean of the spring at around 40 DU, then the mean of the autumn at about 35 DU. The winter minimum mean is around 26 DU. In northern China the major impact factors of tropospheric ozone include solar, ENSO and QBO. The influence of the solar cycle from trough to peak can generally reach 5-6 DU, the effect of precipitation is 5-6 DU, and the effect of ENSO is 1-2 DU, while that of QBO in most cases is less than 2 DU. The NCEP tropopause height data are used to analyze the northern China tropopause height variation, and the results show that there is no significant change in the northern China tropopause height from the decadal time scale, only a significant variation in the different seasons of the year. It is shown that the changes in tropopause height and tropospheric ozone are closely related, and the correlation coefficient R =0.826. The analysis showed that the tropopause height annual cycle changes had a significant impact on the annual cycle of the tropospheric ozone; however, the tropopause height did not exhibit significant decadal trends, thus having little effect on the tropospheric ozone changing trends at decadal time scale.

Annual Cyclical Changes in the Histological Features and Surface Ultrastructure in Ovaries of the Freshwater Featherback Notopterus notopterus (Pallas, 1769)

The feather back, Notopterus notopterus is an important food fish. Its ovary is an extremely dynamic organ and the oocytes present an asynchronous development. Variations in ovary weight, GSI, diameter of oocytes were studied in different months of the year in this fish. Different developmental stages of female germ cells were identified on the basis of histological and ultrastructural characteristics in the ovary of N. notopterus (Pallas). In the present investigation the oocyte development of N. notopterus was divided into five stages (oogonia, perinucleolar oocyte, cortical alveolus, yolk granules stage and mature oocyte). The cytophysiological features like vitellogenesis, chorion formation and atresia of some follicles were also studied in the present investigation. The seasonal changes in the ovary have been described according to the variations in gonadosomatic index and the cytological changes of the female germ line cells.

Dynamics of the microfauna community in a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant experiencing sludge bulking

We investigated the dynamics of the microfauna community in activated sludge, with special reference to sludge bulking, in two parallel municipal wastewater treatment systems in Beijing, China over a period of 14 months. Annual cyclic changes in microfauna community structures occurred in both systems. RELATE analysis based on Spearman's Rank correlation indicated that microfauna community structures were highly correlated with the sludge volume index (SVI) (p<0.001), which indicates sludge settleability. Nutrient conditions of raw sewage (p<0.01) and hydraulic retention time (HRT) (p<0.05) were also related to microfauna community structures. Abundances of the species Epistylis plicatilis and Vorticella striata increased significantly with an increase in SVI (p<0.001) and decrease in water temperature (p<0.001), suggesting that sludge bulking may have created favorable conditions for the two species, even under unfavorable temperature conditions. Sludge de-flocculation primarily due to the excessive growth of Microthrix parvicella-like filaments could be an important driving force for the microfauna community changes. The release of flocculated non-filamentous bacteria may represent a suitable food source for these species. The two species may be considered as potential bioindicators for sludge bulking.

Wild Skylarks Seasonally Modulate Energy Budgets but Maintain Energetically Costly Inflammatory Immune Responses throughout the Annual Cycle

A central hypothesis of ecological immunology is that immune defences are traded off against competing physiological and behavioural processes. During energetically demanding periods, birds are predicted to switch from expensive inflammatory responses to less costly immune responses. Acute phase responses (APRs) are a particularly costly form of immune defence, and, hence, seasonal modulations in APRs are expected. Yet, hypotheses about APR modulation remain untested in free-living organisms throughout a complete annual cycle. We studied seasonal modulations in the APRs and in the energy budgets of skylarks Alauda arvensis, a partial migrant bird from temperate zones that experiences substantial ecological changes during its annual cycle. We characterized throughout the annual cycle changes in their energy budgets by measuring basal metabolic rate (BMR) and body mass. We quantified APRs by measuring the effects of a lipopolysaccharide injection on metabolic rate, body mass, body temperature, and concentrations of glucose and ketone. Body mass and BMR were lowest during breeding, highest during winter and intermediate during spring migration, moult and autumn migration. Despite this variation in energy budgets, the magnitude of the APR, as measured by all variables, was similar in all annual cycle stages. Thus, while we find evidence that some annual cycle stages are relatively more energetically constrained, we find no support for the hypothesis that during these annual cycle stages birds compromise an immune defence that is itself energetically costly. We suggest that the ability to mount an APR may be so essential to survival in every annual cycle stage that skylarks do not trade off this costly form of defence with other annual cycle demands.

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

The Inverse Effect of Annual-Mean State and Annual-Cycle Changes on ENSO

Abstract The influence of the tropical Pacific annual-mean state on the annual-cycle amplitude and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is studied using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM1). In a greenhouse warming experiment, an intensified annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific is associated with reduced ENSO variability, and vice versa. Analysis showed that the annual-mean states, especially the surface warming in the western Pacific and the thermocline deepening in the central Pacific, which is concurrent with the strong annual cycle, act to suppress ENSO amplitude and to intensify the annual-cycle amplitude, and vice versa. The western Pacific warming acts to reduce air–sea coupling strength and to shorten the ocean adjustment time scale, and the deepening of central Pacific thermocline acts to diminish vertical advection of the anomalous ocean temperature by the annual-mean upwelling. Consequently, ENSO activity is suppressed by the annual-mean states during the strong annual-cycle decades, and the opposite case associated with the weak annual-cycle decades is also true. Furthermore, the time integration of an intermediate ENSO model forced with different background state configurations, and a stability analysis of its linearized version, show that annual-mean background states during the weak (strong) annual-cycle decades are characterized by an enhanced (reduced) linear growth rate of ENSO or similarly large (small) variability of ENSO. However, the annual-cycle component of the background state changes cannot significantly modify ENSO variability. Using a hybrid coupled model, it is demonstrated that diagnosed annual-mean background states corresponding to a reduced (enhanced) annual cycle suppress (enhance) the development of the annual cycle of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mainly through the weakening (intensifying) of zonal temperature advection of annual-mean SST by the annual-cycle zonal current. The above results support the idea that climate background state changes control both ENSO and the annual-cycle amplitude in opposing ways.