Changes In Total Fertility Rate Research Articles

Explaining the role of proximate and indirect determinants on fertility decline in Timor-Leste

ABSTRACT Timor-Leste’s rapid population growth since independence in 2002 has been driven by a high total fertility rate, declining mortality rates, and refugee repatriation. Understanding fertility dynamics is necessary for empowering women’s reproductive decision-making. This study investigates the ongoing fertility transition in Timor-Leste by applying Bongaarts’ Proximate Determinants of Fertility to Demographic and Health Survey data. Marriage had the greatest fertility effect on total fecundity rate. Postpartum insusceptibility contributed most to the change in total fertility rate between 2009-10 and 2016. A binary logistic regression model was developed to analyse the effect of selected Indirect Determinants on age at first cohabitation, a proxy measure for the Index of Marriage. This demonstrated that educational attainment, affluence, and access to media significantly affected age at first cohabitation. These findings could be integrated into aligning policy with the intricate local social, cultural, and political context in Timor-Leste in reproductive decision-making.

A decomposition study on the factors influencing China’s total fertility rate changes between 1990 and 2020

Low fertility is not conducive to healthy population development. The total fertility rate (TFR) is influenced by the education expansion (measured by the proportion of non-student women, NSP), marriage delay (measured by the proportion of married women, MP), and marital fertility rate (MFR). This study decomposes the TFR change into the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR using China’s census and 1% population sample survey data. During 1990–2020, the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR contributed − 22%, − 90%, and 12%, respectively, to the changes in TFR. The continuous decline in NSP reduced the TFR, and the intensity continued to increase over time. As the primary negative driving force, the rapid decline in MP also consistently reduced the TFR. The marital fertility rate had a downward effect on the TFR before 2000 and an upward effect after 2000. The effects of NSP, MP, and MFR on the TFR varied with the birth order, age and region (among cities, towns, and villages). In summary, China’s TFR has considerably changed in combination with changes in NSP, MP, and MFR. Without effective measures, China’s TFR may further decline into the lowest-low fertility trap.

The Demographic Transition: Analysis of Nuptiality Component on Change of Fertility in Rwanda

This study is an assessment of the impact of the nuptiality component on the change in the fertility process, which is part of the demographic transition in Rwanda. It focusses on indicators such as age of first marriage, rates of divorce, separation, marriage dissolution, widowhood, polygamy, and number of unmarried people, for their impact on the change in total fertility rate (TFR) in Rwanda. Further, the study examines nuptiality level and behaviour in Rwanda. It is based on the investigation and interpretation of data from various reports of the National Institute Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) and the World Bank (WB), as well as data from experiments conducted by the researcher. The study concluded that, according to most of the reports, these indicators of nuptiality did contribute to the change of TFR during the demographic transition in Rwanda. Further, it recommended that the public statistical institution (NISR) should conduct a study on homosexuality and its impact on TFR in Rwanda. This study consists of four sections: section 1 - introduction; section 2 - literature review; section 3 - data and methods; section 4 - analytical methods, results and conclusion.

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States.

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia

A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup’s potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies.

Fertility, Family Size Preference and Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1990-2014.

In view of an unusual transition in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) fertility, periodic re-appraisal is necessary. Using an ecological design, data from Demographic and Health Surveys between 1990 and 2014 were analysed to investigate trends in completed family size (CFS), total fertility rate (TFR), family size preference (FSP), and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). The correlates of changes in fertility levels, FSP and CPR were explored. Results showed that CFS declined and was lowest in Southern and Western Africa. However, average CFS for Central African countries appeared virtually the same over the period. Changes in TFR and FSP followed patterns similar to CFS. Western and Central region had very slow increase in CPR with many below 20% as at 2014. Eastern and Southern Africa had faster increase in CPR with some countries achieving almost 60%. Regression results showed that contraceptive prevalence (β= -1.96, p=0.027) and median age at first marriage (β= -0.23, p=0.06) were negatively related to TFR while employment (β= -21.7, p <0.001) was negatively related to FSP. In summary, fertility levels and family size preference declined while contraceptive use improved particularly in Southern and the Eastern Africa. Increased female labour force participation is another potential route to fertility decline in SSA.

Fertility Desires and the Course of Fertility Decline in sub‐Saharan Africa

This research has two main goals: (i) to examine fertility desires (number of children) in sub-Saharan Africa: levels as compared to other major regions and recent trends; and (ii) to assess the extent to which fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is contingent on decline in fertility desires (singly and in combination with other reproductive changes).

Fertility Transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, Determinants, and Implications for Policy and Programs

As a continent with 54 independent states Africa’s diversity is often highlighted but frequently forgotten when fertility is discussed. Fifty and more years ago to consider that all African countries and societies had a single fertility pattern (large numbers of children) and single trend (unchanging over time) was a valid characterization. Since the 1960s however that uniformity has disappeared replaced by substantial inter- and intra-country differences in fertility patterns and trends that render previous perceptions of continent-wide homogeneity obsolete. In this chapter we consider two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—whose fertility patterns and trends and their determinants have been well documented (Bongaarts 2008; Garenne 2008; Machiyama 2010; Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2008; Sneeringer 2009). Both countries have benefited from regularWorld Fertility Surveys (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) that record trends in fertility family planning (FP) and other relevant indicators. The recently introduced Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys monitor progress since 2012 for the FP2020 initiative and occasional Situation Analysis and Service Provision Assessment surveys have also detailed the readiness of the health system in both countries to make quality FP services available. Ghana and Kenya share some common history: both have relatively strong health system legacies from the period of British colonialization; both were among the earliest countries to achieve independence; they were the first two African countries that developed policies to address population growth in the 1960s; and both have received substantial and sustained resources over several decades from many external donors and technical assistance organizations explicitly intended to increase the availability and quality of family planning services. However they are composed of cultures that are both diverse within each country and markedly different in many ways between the two countries. The two countries demonstrate remarkably different pathways in fertility and family planning patterns and trends from the 1970s to the present. We highlight some of the key differences and similarities explain why they have occurred and identify insights that could inform a wider understanding of fertility transitions and the role of family planning in other African countries. (excerpt)

HIV/AIDS and Fertility

This paper studies the response of fertility to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. I use repeated cross sections of the Demographic and Health Surveys for 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine this question empirically. Using individual birth histories from these data, I construct estimates of the regional total fertility rate over time. In a difference-in-differences approach, I compare regional HIV prevalence to changes in total fertility rates from the 1980s to the present. My results suggest that HIV/AIDS had very little impact on fertility, both overall and in a sample of HIV-negative women. (JEL I12, J13, O12)

Demographic Transition in Ecological Focus

Demographic transition theory posits that modernization, particularly in the form of urban industrialism, fundamentally alters the environmental context surrounding fertility decision-making, thereby reducing the advantages of having children. While fertility research has either questioned the link between modernization and fertility or attempted to provide the intervening links between the two, there has been little theoretical or empirical refinement of the macrosocial/contextual principles of the theory. We argue that human ecology and evolutionary theory can help respecify and revitalize demographic transition theory. Our respecification produces a more logical account of fertility decline that emphasizes the influences of service economies and the social adaptations attendant on ethnic heterogeneity and preindustrial social complexity. Analyses of changes in total fertility rates in approximately 60 less-developed countries suggest: (1) general (if partially ambiguous) support for demographic transition theory, (2) confirmation of a robust effect of service-sector dominance on fertility, and (3) the importance of ethnic homogeneity and preindustrial social complexity to demographic transition.

Demographic Transition in Ecological Focus

Demographic transition theory posits that modernization particularly in the form of urban industrialism fundamentally alters the environmental context surrounding fertility decision-making thereby reducing the advantages of having children. While fertility research has either questioned the link between modernization and fertility or attempted to provide the intervening links between the two there has been little theoretical or empirical refinement of the macrosocial/contextual principles of the theory. The authors argue that human ecology and evolutionary theory can help respecify and revitalize demographic transition theory. The authors respecification produces a more logical account of fertility decline that emphasizes the influences of service economies and the social adaptations attendant on ethnic heterogeneity and preindustrial social complexity. Analyses of changes in total fertility rates in approximately 60 less developed countries suggest: 1) general (if partially ambiguous) support for demographic transition theory 2) confirmation of a robust effect of service-sector dominance on fertility and 3) the importance of ethnic homogeneity and preindustrial social complexity to demographic transition. (authors)

Decline in Fertility Among Japanese Women Attributed Not to Contraceptive Use but to Late Age at Marriage

Fertility decline in Japan resulted in a 1990 total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.5 children per woman in a lifetime. The high marriage age of 27 years is considered the most important factor influencing fertility decline. The proportion of women who never marry has tripled over the past 20 years (4% in 1973 and 12% in 1990). Later marriage age and never married status are attributed to disenchantment with marriage rising costs of childrearing and increasing educational and employment prospects for women. The trends in TFRs and the parity progression ratio have been similar since 1947. The mean number of children among women aged 25-29 years was 1.4 in 1971 and 1.3 in 1992. The mean desired family size decreased during the same period from 2.6 children to 2.4 children. Differences over time have occurred in the number of couples remaining childless and the number having only one child. Marital first births declined from 94% in 1973 to 88% in 1990. The number of women with one child decreased from 89% to 83% during the same period. Among 1000 hypothetical women the current parity progression ratios would be 12% never marrying 10% marrying and childless 13% marrying and with one child 41% marrying and with 2 children 20% marrying and having 3 children and 3% with 4 or more children. Urban and rural differences and differences in educational status have almost disappeared over time. The most dramatic change in marital patterns has been among women aged 20-24 years; 30% of women aged 20-24 years in 1975 and only 14% in 1990 married. Among women aged 25-29 years the decline was from 70% to 60%. Marital fertility has changed very little and the changes in marital fertility have accounted for 86% of the change in TFR between 1950 and 1973. Between 1980 and 1990 marital fertility would have raised TFR without the impact of delayed marriage. Education has an impact on the transition from a single state to a first marriage. Policies to increase fertility in Japan would have to be directed to making marriage more attractive and improving work conditions.

A bivariate model for total fertility rate and mean age of childbearing

Annual U.S. total fertility rates and mean ages of childbearing, 1921–1980, are fitted to a bivariate autoregressive model which incorporates regression adjustments for the effects of World War II. The result is a transfer function model with total fertility rate as a predictor of mean age of childbearing. While contemporaneous changes in mean age of childbearing tend to be negatively correlated with changes in total fertility rate, there is a tendency for adjusments in mean age to be in the same direction as changes in total fertility in the long run. Point forecasts from the model suggest total fertility will tend to rise but stay below replacement level, and mean age of childbearing will increase very slightly.