Decline in Fertility Among Japanese Women Attributed Not to Contraceptive Use but to Late Age at Marriage

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Fertility decline in Japan resulted in a 1990 total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.5 children per woman in a lifetime. The high marriage age of 27 years is considered the most important factor influencing fertility decline. The proportion of women who never marry has tripled over the past 20 years (4% in 1973 and 12% in 1990). Later marriage age and never married status are attributed to disenchantment with marriage rising costs of childrearing and increasing educational and employment prospects for women. The trends in TFRs and the parity progression ratio have been similar since 1947. The mean number of children among women aged 25-29 years was 1.4 in 1971 and 1.3 in 1992. The mean desired family size decreased during the same period from 2.6 children to 2.4 children. Differences over time have occurred in the number of couples remaining childless and the number having only one child. Marital first births declined from 94% in 1973 to 88% in 1990. The number of women with one child decreased from 89% to 83% during the same period. Among 1000 hypothetical women the current parity progression ratios would be 12% never marrying 10% marrying and childless 13% marrying and with one child 41% marrying and with 2 children 20% marrying and having 3 children and 3% with 4 or more children. Urban and rural differences and differences in educational status have almost disappeared over time. The most dramatic change in marital patterns has been among women aged 20-24 years; 30% of women aged 20-24 years in 1975 and only 14% in 1990 married. Among women aged 25-29 years the decline was from 70% to 60%. Marital fertility has changed very little and the changes in marital fertility have accounted for 86% of the change in TFR between 1950 and 1973. Between 1980 and 1990 marital fertility would have raised TFR without the impact of delayed marriage. Education has an impact on the transition from a single state to a first marriage. Policies to increase fertility in Japan would have to be directed to making marriage more attractive and improving work conditions.