Surface Temperature Changes Research Articles

Remaining useful life prognostics during boiling-induced surface degradation

After sustaining long-term nucleate boiling, any surface is prone to changes over time, which signifies an important operational characteristic for reliable thermal management; however, recent research of this topic is extremely scarce. In this work, we first present long-term pool boiling experiments on samples of different surface topography and morphology in de-ionized water and in an aqueous salt solution. We show the changes induced by vigorous bubble nucleation over the course of several hundred hours of operation, discussing the underlying degradation phenomena. Following this, we present an adaptive data-driven prognostic approach, capable of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a boiling surface in real time, based on change of surface temperature. The method consists of (i) a Kalman filter to identify the degradation drift model and (ii) a Monte Carlo simulation to propagate the drift to the terminal threshold, obtaining a distribution of predicted RUL values. Its practical applicability, validated on experimental results, is reinforced by its advantageous features of (i) prognostic performance not depending on the boiling surface or its degradation mechanisms, (ii) low computational demand and (iii) numerous options for individual tuning and extensions.

The regularity of body surface temperature changes in acupuncture and moxibustion treatment

The regularity of body surface temperature changes in acupuncture and moxibustion treatment

Study on temperature and hardness behaviors of Al-6060 alloy during magnetic abrasive finishing process using artificial neural networks

Magnetic Abrasive Finishing (MAF) revolutionizes surface finishing by utilizing magnetic fields to apply pressure, ensuring exceptionally high-quality surfaces. Its potential for ultra-precise finishing with fine magnetic abrasives is particularly noteworthy. This study analyzes subsurface temperature dynamics during the MAF process on Al-6060, recognizing temperature's pivotal role in shaping surface texture and mechanical-chemical properties. Unbonded magnetic abrasives containing SiC were used without lubrication or coolants in experimentation. Experimental parameters, including machining gap, abrasive weight, voltage, and rotational speed, were systematically varied using a Box-Behnken Design of Experiments. An artificial neural network facilitated comprehensive data modelling, enabling a detailed parametric study. Post-processing surface characterization provided crucial insights into the impact of surface temperature rise on surface finish and hardness. This holistic approach enhances understanding of temperature's influence on MAF efficacy and its outcomes on Al-6060 surfaces. Experimental findings demonstrate MAF's effectiveness in achieving low-temperature finishing of Al-6060, with a maximum surface temperature of 36 °C. ANOVA analysis quantitatively determined that voltage has greatest influence (55.56%), followed by abrasive weight (20.00%) and machining gap (13.89%), with rotational speed having the least impact (2.22%). Qualitatively, the developed ANN model accurately predicted changes in surface roughness (ΔRa), temperature (ΔT), and hardness (ΔH), with maximum errors of 4.107%, 5.588%, and 6.680%, respectively. XRD analysis provided quantitative evidence of SiC diffusion into the surface, resulting in a hardness increase from 2.7 HV to 5.6 HV. Additionally, chemical substrates deposition, such as silicon carbide, kaolinite, iron silicide, and cristobalite, elucidated chemical-mechanical interactions during the process at such low temperatures.

Analysis of urban heat islands combining Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 satellite images in Hochiminh city

Urbanization in big cities has led to many impacts, the most obvious of which is the increasing of impervious surfaces from urban areas, socio-economic construction, concrete roads and the reduction of green space (vegetation, water surface). The changes land use land cover (LULC) led to the changes in the land surface temperature (LST), the formation of urban temperature islands (UHI), which have changed the local climate. This study combined Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 images to enhance the process and calculation of LST value, spatial resolution was improved to 10m compared to 30m when calculated by Landsat 8 image. In which, the study also used ArcGIS software to classify 4 land surface covers, namely built-up land, vegetation land, water surface and the other land in order to monitor the urbanization process (with kappa coefficients all over 0.8) and assess the trend of changing LST on each LULC in the period 2015 - 2022. The results showed that when combined with Sentinel 2 images, LULC such as built-up land, roads and vegetation cover were more prominent, helping to improve more accurate results when calculating LST. Besides the trend of urbanization development in Ho Chi Minh city, it also leads to changes in the distribution of UHI over time.

Tropical Warming and Intensification of the West African Monsoon During the Miocene Climatic Optimum

AbstractStudying monsoon dynamics during past warm time periods such as the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ∼16.9–14.5 Ma) could greatly aid in better projecting monsoon intensity, in the context of future greenhouse warming. However, studies on regional MCO temperature change and its effect on the monsoons during this time period are lacking. Here, we present the first high‐resolution, low‐latitude record of sea surface temperature (SST) and paleoceanographic change covering the Miocene Climatic Optimum, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, at Ocean Drilling Program Site 959, based on TEX86 paleothermometry. SSTs were ∼1.5°C warmer at the onset of the MCO (16.9 Ma) relative to the pre‐MCO (∼18.3–17.7 Ma). This warming was accompanied by a transient increase in %total organic carbon. Prior to the MCO, sediment composition, geochemical proxy data as well as dinoflagellate cyst assemblages imply a productive surface ocean at Site 959. Immediately following the MCO onset (∼16.9–16.5 Ma), we record an intensification of the West African Monsoon (WAM) characterized by higher amplitude variability in all proxy records on precession to obliquity timescales. We interpret increased orbital‐scale SST, biogenic Ba and dinocyst assemblage variability to represent intensification of equatorial upwelling, forced by the WAM strength. Furthermore, higher SSTs during eccentricity maxima correlate to increased relative abundances of the warm and stratification‐favoring dinocyst Polysphaeridium zoharyi, during periods of low WAM intensity. Finally, while long‐term SSTs decline toward the middle Miocene, maximum SSTs and Polysphaeridium zoharyi abundances occur during MCO peak warming at ∼15.6 Ma.

Untangling the dynamics of heavy rainfall events (HRE) in the Northeast monsoon season and exploring its connection to the Indian Ocean warming and the Madden Julian Oscillation

Southeastern Peninsular India witnessed heavy rainfall events (HRE) during the recent El Nino year 2015 and La Nina year 2021 in November and early December. Both these events were associated with enhanced easterly wave activity and active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime continent. The MJO was on the fourth (MJO-4) phase for 15 and 17 days in November 2015 and 2021 respectively. A weakening in the positive correlation between El Nino and Northeast monsoon rainfall and a strengthening in the positive correlation between the MJO-4 days and HRE is observed in very recent years. This study revealed that the unequal changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region i.e., warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) and cooling over the western Pacific Ocean can be favourable for the increased occurrence of MJO-4 days as well as HRE over southern Peninsular India. The easterly wind anomalies towards the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southeastern Peninsular India and westerly wind anomalies over the central equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly correlated with HRE in the recent epoch (2001−2021). Warming in eastern IO brings easterlies from the cool western Pacific and westerlies from the western IO, which helps the MJO to remain active over maritime continent and inhibits its further eastward propagation. The HREs in the recent epoch are associated with the low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulation over southern Peninsular India, in which moisture transport is from the Arabian Sea to Peninsular India. The HRE in the early epoch (1981–2000) is related to the anticyclonic circulation over BoB region and the moisture transport is from BoB and southeastern IO. A proposed mechanism for the HRE in the recent epoch is as follows. The SST gradient in the Indo-Pacific Ocean is conducive for the moistening of MJO-4 region and is favourable for the enhanced easterly wave activity and the formation of low-pressure systems, which get strengthened while moving towards southern Peninsular India due to the presence of strong equatorial westerlies over IO. These strengthened low pressure systems leads to strong ascending wind anomalies over southern Peninsular India and strong descending anomalies over Central IO and HREs over southern Peninsular India.

Land Cover and Land Surface Temperature in the West Bank, Palestine

The 10 major cities in the West Bank (WB), Palestine—Nablus, Ramallah and Al-Bireh, Jenin, Qalqilia, Salfit, Tubas, Jericho, Bethlehem, Tulkarem, and Hebron—are experiencing rapid urban transformation and changing land cover. This study explores the relationship between land cover (built-up and unbuilt areas) and soil type in these cities across benchmark years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2021. In addition to the former, the paper argues that the expansion and increase of the built-up area and the change in soil type of the aforementioned cities in the West Bank, Palestine, are leading to changes in the land surface temperature (LST). This conclusion was reached through a methodological framework that was developed to measure the relationship between the changing land cover (built-up and unbuilt-up areas), soil type, and LST in the 10 major cities in the region. The framework relies on data retrieved through remote sensing in the years from 1995 to 2021. The results of the analysis conducted through this methodological framework showed that there is an inverse relationship between the increase in built-up areas and LST; however, LST is less inside the built-up areas than in the surrounding areas (open spaces) due to different land cover (unbuilt area with grass and shrubs) and different soil type.

Evaluation of Factors Influencing Changes in Land Surface Temperature at Gas Flaring Sites in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

Evaluation of Factors Influencing Changes in Land Surface Temperature at Gas Flaring Sites in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

Climate-driven shifts in decapod larvae assemblages in a temperate estuary

The study examines the complex impact of climatic patterns, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on regional climate, hydrology, and sea surface temperatures. Focused on the period from 2003 to 2012, the research specifically investigates the influence of thermal variability on decapod larval communities. Monthly zooplanktonic sampling conducted at the Mondego Estuary, Portugal, entrance over a decade revealed the prevalence of Carcinus maenas, Diogenes pugilator, and Pachigrapsus marmoratus larvae. These assemblages displayed notable interannual and seasonal fluctuations, often corresponding with changes in sea surface temperatures. Significant system shifts around 2007, instigated by the large-scale NAO, led to subsequent modifications in sea surface temperature and decapod larvae communities' dynamics. Post-2007, there was an upward trajectory in both species’ abundance and richness. Phenologically during the former period, the community exhibited two abundance peaks, with the earlier peak occurring sooner, attributed to heightened temperatures instead of the unique peak exhibited before 2007. The research further elucidated the occurrences of Marine Heatwaves (MHW) in the region, delving into their temporal progression influenced by the NAO. Although water temperature emerged as a crucial factor influencing decapod larvae communities annually and seasonally, the study did not observe discernible impacts of MHW events on these communities. These communities represent essential trophic links and are crucial for the survival success of adult decapods. Given the rapid pace of climate change and increasing temperatures, it is imperative to assess whether these environmental shifts, particularly in thermal conditions, affect these meroplanktonic communities.

Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used

Abstract. This is the second of two papers in which we study the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on the model and injection strategy used. Here, aerosol optical properties from simulated stratospheric aerosol injections using two aerosol models (modal scheme M7 and sectional scheme SALSA), as described in Part 1 (Laakso et al., 2022), are implemented consistently into the EC-Earth, MPI-ESM and CESM Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate the climate impacts of different injection rates ranging from 2 to 100 Tg(S) yr−1. Two sets of simulations were run with the three ESMs: (1) regression simulations, in which an abrupt change in CO2 concentration or stratospheric aerosols over pre-industrial conditions was applied to quantify global mean fast temperature-independent climate responses and quasi-linear dependence on temperature, and (2) equilibrium simulations, in which radiative forcing of aerosol injections with various magnitudes compensated for the corresponding radiative forcing of CO2 enhancement to study the dependence of precipitation on the injection magnitude. The latter also allow one to explore the regional climatic responses. Large differences in SALSA- and M7-simulated radiative forcing in Part 1 translated into large differences in the estimated surface temperature and precipitation changes in ESM simulations; for example, an injection rate of 20 Tg(S) yr−1 in CESM using M7-simulated aerosols led to only 2.2 K global mean cooling, while EC-Earth–SALSA combination produced a 5.2 K change. In equilibrium simulations, where aerosol injections were utilized to offset the radiative forcing caused by an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm, the decrease in global mean precipitation varied among models, ranging from −0.7 % to −2.4 % compared with the pre-industrial climate. These precipitation changes can be explained by the fast precipitation response due to radiation changes caused by the stratospheric aerosols and CO2, as the global mean fast precipitation response is shown to be negatively correlated with global mean atmospheric absorption. Our study shows that estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on climate is not straightforward. This is because the simulated capability of the sulfate layer to reflect solar radiation and absorb long-wave radiation is sensitive to the injection rate as well as the aerosol model used to simulate the aerosol field. These findings emphasize the necessity for precise simulation of aerosol microphysics to accurately estimate the climate impacts of stratospheric sulfur intervention. This study also reveals gaps in our understanding and uncertainties that still exist related to these controversial techniques.

Evaluating the thermal environmental alterations due to photovoltaic installations in the kushida river basin, Japan

The construction of Photovoltaic (PV) provides renewable energy, but it is also impacting the basins environment. The study simulates the annual construction status of PV installations within the research area over a time series from 2013 to 2023, and to understanding of the trends in Land Surface Temperature (LST) changes due to the PVs. The results revealed that the number of PV installations in the study area increased most significantly between 2018 and 2019, with the newly installed area during this period being approximately 5.2 times larger than 2013. Although large-scale construction slowed after 2020, small and medium-sized PV installations continued. The study found that the LST around PV which built from 2013 to 2023 increased by an average of 2.85 °C. Also, LST-difference (LST-D) changes with the seasons. The analysis of the relationship between geographical conditions and LST difference revealed that in hilly and mountainous areas with higher elevations, the impact of PV construction on LST was lower. And found that the distance of the PV from the watercourse and the surrounding land cover also had an impact to LST changes, with spatial variability between the different impact variables as analysed by the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model.

Understanding surface temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau in the last millennium from a modeling perspective

Understanding surface temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau in the last millennium from a modeling perspective

CO2 Emission Compensation by Tree Species in Some Urban Green Areas

Mitigating the negative impacts of climate change in urban areas has recently become essential to improving citizens’ living conditions. Trees are one of the most effective ways to attenuate the Heat Island phenomenon in cities, and numerous projects have been carried out to calculate tree ecosystem services (ES) provisioning. Among these, the Clivut European project (LIFE 18 GIC/IT/001217) developed a web app to allow citizens and the public administration to quantify the ES provided by the most common tree species. The present study aims to consider a new model to calculate the tree evapotranspiration cooling effect in the urban environment in terms of CO2-compensated emissions. The model directly converts the surface temperature change produced by tree evapotranspiration into the corresponding CO2 offset in four urban parks in two Italian cities (Bologna and Perugia). The considered parks stored 1100 t of CO2 at the time of the study, while the CO2 compensated is 860 t, showing the significance of this interpretation. As a result of the study, it can be concluded that the presented model will allow a better estimation of the potential trees’ climate change compensation and also add further functionality to the web app.

Multi-Temporal Analysis of the Impact of Summer Forest Dynamics on Urban Heat Island Effect in Yan’an City

In this study, MODIS land products and China land cover datasets were used to extract normalized difference vegetation index, land surface temperature, and vegetation cover type in Yan’an City during the summers of 2017–2022. On this basis, analysis of spatial change and correlation were carried out as a way to study the mitigation effect on urban heat islands in Yan’an City with forest. The study showed that: (1) The coverage of normalized difference vegetation index over 0.4 in summer in Yan’an City increased from 59.38% to 69.12%, and the vegetation showed good growth conditions. It has a spatial distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north. (2) The proportion of the urban heat island in Yan’an City increased from 15.51% to 16.86%. Urban heat island intensity fluctuated year by year, with the maximum urban heat island intensity of 6.26 °C appearing in 2019. It has a spatial distribution pattern of less in the south and less in the north. The transition rate of temperature field grade from low to high is 73.32%, and the transition rate to low is only 0.31%. (3) There is a negative correlation between land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index in Yan’an City. Vegetation has a mitigating effect on the UHI and the best cooling effect among the vegetation is shown by forest. The cooling effect of forest in Yan’an City is attenuated by an increase in distance, and the effective range is greater than 1000 m. In this study, the regulation effect of forest on the urban heat island was obtained by digging deeper into the intrinsic connection between spatial change in vegetation cover and land surface temperature change in Yan’an City. It provides an important reference for the formulation of meteorological protection policy as well as the promotion of sustainable development of the urban ecological environment and is of guiding significance for future urban planning and ecological construction.

The Southern Ocean deep mixing band emerges from a competition between winter buoyancy loss and upper stratification strength

Abstract. The Southern Ocean hosts a winter deep mixing band (DMB) near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) northern boundary, playing a pivotal role in Subantarctic Mode Water formation. Here, we investigate what controls the presence and geographical extent of the DMB. Using observational data, we construct seasonal climatologies of surface buoyancy fluxes, Ekman buoyancy transport, and upper stratification. The strength of the upper-ocean stratification is determined using the columnar buoyancy index, defined as the buoyancy input necessary to produce a 250 m deep mixed layer. It is found that the DMB lies precisely where the autumn–winter buoyancy loss exceeds the columnar buoyancy found in late summer. The buoyancy loss decreases towards the south, while in the north the stratification is too strong to produce deep mixed layers. Although this threshold is also crossed in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current regions, advection of buoyancy is able to stabilise the stratification. The Ekman buoyancy transport has a secondary impact on the DMB extent due to the compensating effects of temperature and salinity transports on buoyancy. Changes in surface temperature drive spatial variations in the thermal expansion coefficient (TEC). These TEC variations are necessary to explain the limited meridional extent of the DMB. We demonstrate this by comparing buoyancy budgets derived using varying TEC values with those derived using a constant TEC value. Reduced TEC in colder waters leads to decreased winter buoyancy loss south of the DMB, yet substantial heat loss persists. Lower TEC values also weaken the effect of temperature stratification, partially compensating for the effect of buoyancy loss damping. TEC modulation impacts both the DMB characteristics and its meridional extent.

Temporal genomics help in deciphering neutral and adaptive patterns in the contemporary evolution of kelp populations

Abstract The impact of climate change on populations will be contingent upon their contemporary adaptive evolution. In this study, we investigated the contemporary evolution of 4 populations of the cold-water kelp Laminaria digitata by analyzing their spatial and temporal genomic variations using ddRAD-sequencing. These populations were sampled from the center to the southern margin of its north-eastern Atlantic distribution at 2 time points, spanning at least 2 generations. Through genome scans for local adaptation at a single time point, we identified candidate loci that showed clinal variation correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) along latitudinal gradients. This finding suggests that SST may drive the adaptive response of these kelp populations, although factors such as species’ demographic history should also be considered. Additionally, we performed a simulation approach to distinguish the effect of selection from genetic drift in allele frequency changes over time. This enabled the detection of loci in the southernmost population that exhibited temporal differentiation beyond what would be expected from genetic drift alone: these are candidate loci which could have evolved under selection over time. In contrast, we did not detect any outlier locus based on temporal differentiation in the population from the North Sea, which also displayed low and decreasing levels of genetic diversity. The diverse evolutionary scenarios observed among populations can be attributed to variations in the prevalence of selection relative to genetic drift across different environments. Therefore, our study highlights the potential of temporal genomics to offer valuable insights into the contemporary evolution of marine foundation species facing climate change.

Linkages between urban growth and land surface temperature variations in the Seoul metropolitan area: A spatial first-order difference approach

This study investigates the effects of urban development and expansion on Land Surface Temperature (LST) changes from 2000 to 2018, using the Seoul Metropolitan area (SMA) as a case study area. Along with descriptive analysis, this study uses a spatial first-order difference model to statistically analyze the longitudinal relationship between land use features and LST, including impervious surface (IS), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), anthropogenic factors, and urban spatial and topographical factors as well as urban development types as influential factors on LST variations. Our findings support prior research indicating the cooling effects of vegetation and warming effects of imperviousness. We also found a positive association between detached housing units, manufacturing activities and LST changes and a negative relationship between apartment units, urban parks, service activities and LST changes. More importantly, substantial LST reduction was found in the large-scale high-rise apartment complexes redeveloped from the low-rise, detached housing sites in inner-city infill areas, contrasting with significant LST rise in the suburban new town development. We suggest redevelopment of inner-city low-rise compact areas into high-rise but greener blocks as a LST mitigation strategy, equipped with cooling strategies such as green infrastructure and climate-sensitive design considering local microclimate and natural ventilation.

Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change

The northwestern Pacific monsoon trough (NWPMT) deeply impacts socio-economic development and human security over East Asia by supplying moisture to the summer monsoon rainfall and modulating tropical cyclone activities. However, considerable inter-model spreads in the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6 models make the future projection of the NWPMT less reliable. Here, we find that the inter-model spread of the NWPMT change is significantly correlated with the central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature change, and mainly determined by the equatorial thermocline sharpness in the historical simulations. According to the emergent constraint method, the central equatorial Pacific SST would warm up about 6% slower than the multi-model mean with 56% uncertainty reduced. Correspondingly, the NWPMT would slacken westward with 36% uncertainty reduced. Results here emphasize the importance of examining and reducing systematic model biases in simulating thermocline sharpness that have been overlooked in past literatures, before achieving more reliable future projections.

Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing

Understanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the use of standard transient historical and scenario simulations requires very large ensembles. A computationally cheaper alternative implemented in this study consists of performing two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) with fixed radiative forcing at the years 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions, respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with a particular focus on the less-explored early winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of the mixed layer depth variability. Variability in turbulent heat flux is influenced primarily by latent heat flux, connected to changes in precipitation variability.