Soc Change Research Articles

Kinetic to Saturation Model for Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Increase to Steady State

Core Ideas We evaluated SOC dynamics in a long‐term soil tillage and N fertilization experiment. We proposed a kinetic to saturation model for long‐term simulation of SOC dynamics. The model was accurate in C‐depleted soils and accounted for SOC saturation process. The use of mathematical models predicting SOC dynamics can provide relevant information about the C storage potential of agricultural soils. We evaluated three mathematical models (first‐order kinetic, C saturation, and a proposed kinetic to saturation) predicting SOC dynamics and steady‐state SOC of a Hapludoll from central Kansas. The study was based on a long‐term experiment (17 yr) assessing soil tillage systems (chisel tillage [CT] and no‐till [NT]) and N fertilizer sources (168 kg N ha−1 as NH4NO3 [MF], cattle manure [OF], and a control treatment without N [CO]. The soil under NT (0–5 cm) had significant SOC accumulation (>0.23 Mg C ha−1 yr−1) regardless of fertilization source, while the CT soil had negligible changes in SOC (<0.12 Mg C ha−1 yr−1) without the addition of organic fertilizer as an external C source. Organic fertilization increased the original SOC by 56 and 192%, reaching steady state at 15.9 and 28.0 Mg ha−1 in CT and NT soils, respectively. The SOC predicted by all three models had significant correlations (r > 0.80, p < 0.05) with measured SOC. However, the C saturation model overestimated the measured SOC under C‐depleted conditions, failing RMSE and lack‐of‐fit tests, while the first‐order kinetic model overestimated NT OF steady‐state SOC by up to 58% in relation to the maximum SOC storage capacity determined for NT soils. The SOC predicted by the kinetic to saturation model agreed with both measured SOC and the maximum SOC storage capacity of NT soils. The kinetic to saturation model can be used for long‐term simulation of SOC dynamics in soils that are either C depleted or close to saturation.

Stages of change and patient activation measure scores in the context of incentive-based health interventions.

To determine if two widely used behavioral change measures-Stages of Change (SoC) and Patient Activation Measure (PAM)-correlate with each other, are affected by financial incentives, or predict positive outcomes in the context of incentive-based health interventions. Secondary analysis of two randomized controlled trials of incentives for weight loss and for improved diabetes self-monitoring. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey. A total of 132 obese and 75 diabetic adults enrolled in one of two trials. MEASURES . SoC and PAM scores; weight loss and usage rate of diabetes self-monitoring equipment. Multiple regression; Kruskal-Wallis test. We found no association between baseline SoC and PAM scores in either study (p = .30 and p = .89). Regression models showed no association between baseline PAM score and SoC and subsequent outcomes for either study (weight loss study: PAM: p = .14, SoC: p = .1; diabetes study: PAM: p = .45, SoC: p = .61). Change in PAM score and SoC among participants in the intervention groups did not differ by study arm or among participants with better outcomes. CONCLUSION . PAM score and SoC may not effectively predict success or monitor progress among individuals enrolled in incentive-based interventions.

Global perspectives on preventing violence and upholding justice

The prevention of violence and the pursuit of justice are two fundamental aims of civil society that have long been recognized and supported across the globe [1]. Far too often, however, they are addressed independently: one initiative focused on preventing violence and another on upholding justice. This is also the case in criminological research and scholarship, but there are some exceptions. Perhaps one of the best examples is the U.S. National Research Council’s report on fair and effective policing [2]. The report called for more concrete action to integrate these two principles in addressing crime and violence: greater use of effective policing strategies coupled with improved police fairness and legitimacy can produce better outcomes for the community [3, 4]. If society places more emphasis on the prevention of violence—in communities, schools, and families—might we be able to reduce some of the need for formal social control as well as inculcate a greater sense of justice for individuals and the community at-large? This is what Meares [5] refers to as an overt curriculum, which is rooted in democracy and fairness. If law enforcement as well as other branches of the criminal justice system exercise greater fairness toward suspected and convicted offenders, might we be able to improve police-community relations and help to reduce future acts of violence by these groups? It is these questions that guided the development of this special issue of Crime, Law and Social Change. We recognize that these are big picture questions and we do not pretend to answer them in full. Through a series of thoughtful, scholarly articles, we Crime Law Soc Change (2015) 64:205–209 DOI 10.1007/s10611-015-9594-2

Effects of soccer vs swim training on bone formation in sedentary middle-aged women.

The present study examined the effects of 15 weeks of soccer training and two different swimming training protocols on bone turnover in sedentary middle-aged women. Eighty-three premenopausal mildly hypertensive women [age: 45 ± 6 (± SD) years, height: 165 ± 6 cm, weight: 80.0 ± 14.1 kg, body fat: 42.6 ± 5.7 %, systolic blood pressure/diastolic blood pressure: 138 ± 6/85 ± 3 mmHg] were randomized into soccer training (SOC, n = 21), high-intensity intermittent swimming (HS, n = 21), moderate-intensity swimming (MS, n = 21) intervention groups, and a control group (C, n = 20). The training groups completed three sessions per week for 15 weeks. DXA scans were performed and resting blood samples were drawn pre- and post-intervention. In SOC, plasma osteocalcin, procollagen type I N propeptide and C-terminal telopeptide increased (P < 0.05) by 37 ± 15, 52 ± 23 and 42 ± 18 %, respectively, with no changes in MS, HS and C. The intervention-induced increase in SOC was larger (P < 0.05) than in MS, HS and C. In SOC, leg BMC increased (P < 0.05) by 3.1 ± 4.5 %, with a larger increase in SOC than in C. Femoral shaft and trochanter bone mineral density (BMD) increased (P < 0.05) by 1.7 ± 1.9 and 2.4 ± 2.9 %, respectively, in SOC, with a greater (P < 0.05) change in SOC than in MS and C, whereas total body and total leg BMD did not change in any of the groups. In conclusion, 15 weeks of soccer training with sedentary middle-aged women caused marked increases in bone turnover markers, with concomitant increases in leg bone mass. No changes in bone formation and resorption markers were seen after prolonged submaximal or high-intensity intermittent swimming training. Thus, soccer training appears to provide a powerful osteogenic stimulus in middle-aged women.

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from the double rice system with integrated soil–crop system management: A three-year field study

The impact of integrated soil–crop system management (ISSM) on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is poorly documented though crucial for food security and nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency (NUE). Using local farming practices (FP) and no nitrogen (NN) as the controls, three ISSM practices at different N rates were established in 2009 in a double rice system in Hunan Province, China. Soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) were estimated by changes in SOC between 2009 and 2014. Field measurements of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, grain yield and NUE of early and late rice were measured from April 2011 through April 2014. The net GWP of the annual CH4 and N2O emissions and SOCSR and the GHGI over the three years in the FP was 15.35 t CO2 eq ha−1 year−1 and 1.00 kg CO2 eq kg−1 grain. The ISSM (N2) treatment increased annual rice yield by 23%, NUE by 76% and SOCSR by 129%, with similar sizes of net GWP and GHGI under the same N input relative to the FP. A second ISSM (N1) treatment in which annual fertilizer N input was decreased by 20% also showed the potential to lower net GWP and GHGI and increase SOCSR and significantly increased annual rice grain yield by 8.6% and NUE by 59%. The third ISSM (N3) in which fertilizer N input was 20% greater than in FP, significantly increased annual rice yield by 26%, NUE by 57% and SOCSR by 98% but notably increased the CH4 and N2O emissions. Our findings show that the ISSM strategies are promising and feasible in sustainable rice agriculture for food security and GHGs mitigation.

Corporate crime and state legitimacy: the 2008 Chinese melamine milk scandal

Corporate crime is a worldwide problem [41], but the burgeoning reported economic crime rate in China [33] involving such acts as poisoned food [109] and rampant environmental pollution [95], provide a unique opportunity to study the nature of such offending in a country whose economy is growing faster than any other in history. China retained authoritarian one-party control as the nation transitioned from the collectivist economy established by Mao Zedong to the current Bsocialist market economy,^ a capitalist market system combined with state-owned-enterprises. This combination of control and capital may help explain the documented rise in whitecollar and corporate offending in China, and provides a unique backdrop for examining the relevance of theories developed through the study of western capitalist societies. Few scholarly works exist that examine similarities and differences between corporate crime in China with offenses in the west [19, 46]. One paramount issue is whether such illegalities are subject to Bnon-issue making^ [29, 47] where the state provides de facto approval for injurious behaviors through non-response. Not all corporate offenses in the west are treated in this manner as some have argued that selectivity in regulatory enforcement results in the investigation of crimes that threaten capital accumulation [17]. This is likely due to the state’s desire to maintain a balance between its essential functions: capital accumulation and government legitimacy [69, 73]. While there appears to be evidence for such theories in western capitalist democracies, their applicability to single-party states such as China has yet to be examined by scholars. The aim of this study is to compare Chinese state response to corporate crime with that of capitalist democracies given the People’s Republic of China’s authoritarian, oneparty rule. It seeks to answer four questions regarding China’s response to economic crime. First, to what extent do local and national enforcement agencies in China allow Crime Law Soc Change (2015) 63:247–267 DOI 10.1007/s10611-015-9567-5

Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence

AbstractSoil organic carbon (SOC) change can be a major impact of land use change (LUC) associated with biofuel feedstock production. By collecting and analyzing data from worldwide field observations of majorLUCs from cropland, grassland, and forest to lands producing biofuel crops (i.e. corn, switchgrass,Miscanthus, poplar, and willow), we were able to estimateSOCresponse ratios and sequestration rates and evaluate the effects of soil depth and time scale onSOCchange. Both the amount and rate ofSOCchange were highly dependent on the specific land transition. Irrespective of soil depth or time horizon, cropland conversions resulted in an overallSOCgain of 6–14% relative to initialSOClevel, while conversion from grassland or forest to corn (without residue removal) or poplar caused significant carbon loss (9–35%). No significantSOCchanges were observed in land converted from grasslands or forests to switchgrass,Miscanthus,or willow. TheSOCresponse ratios were similar in both 0–30 and 0–100 cm soil depths in most cases, suggestingSOCchanges in deep soil and that use of top soil only forSOCaccounting in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) might underestimate totalSOCchanges. Soil carbon sequestration rates varied greatly among studies and land transition types. Generally, the rates ofSOCchange tended to be the greatest during the 10 years following land conversion and had declined to approach 0 within about 20 years for mostLUCs. Observed trends inSOCchange were generally consistent with previous reports. Soil depth and duration of study significantly influenceSOCchange rates and so should be considered in carbon emission accounting in biofuelLCA. High uncertainty remains for many perennial systems and forest transitions, additional field trials, and modeling efforts are needed to draw conclusions about the site‐ and system‐specific rates and direction of change.

Quantitative attribution of major driving forces on soil organic carbon dynamics

AbstractSoil organic carbon (SOC) storage plays a major role in the global carbon cycle and is affected by many factors including land use/management changes (e.g., biofuel production‐oriented changes). However, the contributions of various factors to SOC changes are not well understood and quantified. This study was designed to investigate the impacts of changing farming practices, initial SOC levels, and biological enhancement of grain production on SOC dynamics and to attribute the relative contributions of major driving forces (CO2 enrichment and farming practices) using a fractional factorial modeling design. The case study at a crop site in Iowa in the United States demonstrated that the traditional corn‐soybean (CS) rotation could still accumulate SOC over this century (from 4.2 to 6.8 kg C/m2) under the current condition; whereas the continuous‐corn (CC) system might have a higher SOC sequestration potential than CS. In either case, however, residue removal could reduce the sink potential substantially. Long‐term simulation results also suggested that the equilibrium SOC level may vary greatly (∼5.7 to ∼11 kg C/m2) depending on cropping systems and management practices, and projected growth enhancement could make the magnitudes higher (∼7.8 to ∼13 kg C/m2). Importantly, the factorial design analysis indicated that residue management had the most significant impact (contributing 49.4%) on SOC changes, followed by CO2 Enrichment (37%), Tillage (6.2%), the combination of CO2 Enrichment‐Residue removal (5.8%), and Fertilization (1.6%). In brief, this study is valuable for understanding the major forces driving SOC dynamics of agroecosystems and informative for decision‐makers when seeking the enhancement of SOC sequestration potential and sustainability of biofuel production, especially in the Corn Belt region of the United States.

Modeling SOC and Corn Yield Changes Under Alternative Management in Northeast China from 1980-2010

Modeling SOC and Corn Yield Changes Under Alternative Management in Northeast China from 1980-2010

Estimating the soil carbon sequestration potential of China's Grain for Green Project

AbstractThe largest area of planted forest in the world has been established in China through implementation of key forestry projects in recent years. These projects have played an important role in sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere, which is considered to be a potential mitigation strategy for the effects of global climate change. However, carbon sequestration in soil (soil organic carbon, SOC) after afforestation or reforestation is not well understood, particularly for specific key forestry projects. In this study, the SOC change in the top 20 cm of soil for each type of restoration implemented under China's Grain for Green Project (GGP) was quantified by a meta‐analysis of data from published literature and direct field measurements. Soil carbon sequestration due to the GGP during 1999–2012 was estimated using data on the annual restoration area at provincial level and functions that relate SOC stock change to controlling factors (e.g., plantation age, forest zone, and type of forestation). Soil carbon sequestration of the GGP was estimated to be 156±108 Tg C (95% confidence interval) for current restoration areas prior to 2013, with a mean accumulation rate of 12±8 Tg C yr−1. The soil carbon sequestration potential of existing plantation zones is predicted to increase from 156±108 Tg C in 2013 to 383±188 Tg C in 2050 under the assumption that all plantation areas are well preserved. Plantations in northwestern, southern, and southwestern zones contributed nearly 80% of total soil carbon sequestration, while soil C sequestration in northeastern China was much more variable. Improved data sources, measurements of SOC in the organic layer, greater sampling depth, and better distribution of sampling sites among GGP regions will reduce the uncertainty of the estimates made by this study.

Erratum to: Introduction

Protesters as terrorists? Radicalisation and de-radicalisation of social movements: The comeback of political Islam? The prognosis of terrorist attacks—limits of scientific findings Combating the terrorism of ETA with the penal model From control orders to TPIMs: variations on a number of themes in British legal responses to terrorism Preventive detention as a counter-terrorism instrument in Germany Torture and the fight against terrorism The European Union as a counter–terrorism actor: right path, wrong direction? Crime Law Soc Change (2014) 62:205 DOI 10.1007/s10611-014-9546-2

Chinese criminal trials: a comprehensive empirical inquiry

In the past decade, research on Chinese criminal justice has witnessed a notable shift from broad–brush doctrinal overviews to fine–grained empirical studies using social science methods. With different research agendas, both criminal procedure law professors in China and social scientists overseas (mostly criminologists and socio–legal researchers) have begun to collect and analyze empirical data on various aspects of the criminal justice system. Ni He’s new book Chinese Criminal Trials is a recent product of this new trend. While many existing books on the Chinese criminal justice system focus on one specific aspect of it, such as policing, court trial, or criminal defense, He’s study provides a comprehensive examination of the system with both historical length and empirical breadth. The book opens with a short but ambitious overview of the historical context of Chinese criminal justice from antiquity to modernity. The author traces the legacy of the Chinese legal system and its institutional arrangements in Imperial China, such as the yamen and bureaucratic norms. Then he proceeds to analyze the socio–legal context of the contemporary Chinese criminal justice system in terms of the “tripartite rules” (pp.39–46), namely, rule of man, rule by law, and rule of law. These two parts are mainly based on the secondary literature on Chinese law, with occasional references to general social theorists such as Montesquieu, Parsons, Merton, and Inglehart in explaining the structural and cultural transformations of the so–called “Chinese legality” (pp. 10–14). The core empirical findings are reported in Part III, arguably the most exciting and valuable part of the book. The research is based on a pilot study in a southeast province of China during 2009–2011, funded by the MacArthur Foundation. The data consist of three components: (1) a survey of 642 legal professionals in the province, including 348 practicing attorneys, 177 criminal justice practitioners (i.e., those working in the police, procuracy, or court), and others working in the state or private sectors; (2)325 criminal trial observations; and, (3) 149 complete criminal case files. This excellent combination of complementary data sources provide the author a great opportunity to Crime Law Soc Change (2014) 62:87–89 DOI 10.1007/s10611-014-9521-y

The Power Distribution Control Study in Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle Based on Fuzzy Theory

By analyzing the parallel hybrid electric vehicle mode, the optimization of output power to fuel engine and electric motor is discussed. The fuzzy logical rules are proposed by fuzzy control theory. According to the system required power and battery SOC, the engine output power and the motor output power are optimized. The results show that the optimization method based on fuzzy logical can effectively reduces fuel consumption and can well control the battery SOC changes.

Assessing the Soil Carbon, Biomass Production, and Nitrous Oxide Emission Impact of Corn Stover Management for Bioenergy Feedstock Production Using DAYCENT

Harvesting crop residue needs to be managed to protect agroecosystem health and productivity. DAYCENT, a process-based modeling tool, may be suited to accommodate region-specific factors and provide regional predictions for a broad array of agroecosystem impacts associated with corn stover harvest. Grain yield, soil C, and N2O emission data collected at Corn Stover Regional Partnership experimental sites were used to test DAYCENT performance modeling the impacts of corn stover removal. DAYCENT estimations of stover yields were correlated and reasonably accurate (adjusted r2 = 0.53, slope = 1.18, p 3-kg N2O-N ha−1 year−1. Overall, DAYCENT performed well at simulating stover yields and low N2O emission rates, reasonably well when simulating the effects of management practices on average grain yields and SOC change, and poorly when estimating high N2O emissions. These biases should be considered when DAYCENT is used as a decision support tool for recommending sustainable corn stover removal practices to advance bioenergy industry based on corn stover feedstock material.

The Impact of Corn Stover Removal on N2O Emission and Soil Respiration: an Investigation with Automated Chambers

Corn stover removal, whether for silage, bedding, or bioenergy production, could have a variety of environmental consequences through its effect on soil processes, particularly N2O production and soil respiration. Because these effects may be episodic in nature, weekly snapshots with static chambers may not provide a complete picture. We adapted commercially available automated soil respiration chambers by incorporating a portable N2O analyzer, allowing us to measure both CO2 and N2O fluxes on an hourly basis through two growing seasons in a corn field in southern Minnesota, from spring 2010 to spring 2012. This site was part of a USDA multilocation research project for five growing seasons, 2008–2012, with three levels of stover removal: zero, full, and intermediate. Initially in spring 2010, two chambers were placed in each of the treatments, but following planting in 2011, the configuration was changed, with four chambers installed on zero removal plots and four on full removal plots. The cumulative data revealed no significant difference in N2O emission as a function of stover removal. CO2 loss from the full removal plots was slightly lower than that from the zero removal plots, but the difference between treatments was much smaller than the amount of C removed in the residue, implying loss of soil carbon from the full removal plots. This is consistent with soil sampling data, which showed that in five of six sampled blocks, the SOC change in the full removal treatments was negative relative to the zero removal plots. We conclude that (a) full stover removal may have little impact on N2O production, and (b) while it will reduce soil CO2 production, the reduction will not be commensurate with the decrease in fresh carbon inputs and, thus, will result in SOC loss.

Body Composition Changes Among Female NCAA Division 1 Athletes Across the Competitive Season and Over a Multiyear Time Frame

Body composition can affect athletic performance. Numerous studies have documented changes in body composition in female collegiate athletes from pre- to postseason; however, longitudinal studies examining changes across years are scarce. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to assess longitudinal body composition changes among female collegiate athletes across 3 years. Two hundred twelve female athletes from basketball (BB; n = 38), soccer (SOC; n = 47), swimming (SW; n = 52), track (sprinters and jumpers; TR; n = 49), and volleyball (VB; n = 26) with an initial mean age of 19.2 ± 1.2 years, height of 172.4 ± 8.9 cm, and total mass of 66.9 ± 9.0 kg had body composition assessments using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry pre- and postseason over 3 years. A restricted maximum-likelihood linear mixed model regression analysis examined body composition differences by sport and year. Changes (p < 0.05) over 3 years included the following: Lean mass increased in VB from year 1 to 2 (0.7 kg), year 2 to 3 (1.1 kg), and year 1 to 3 (1.8 kg) and in SW from year 1 to 3 (0.6 kg); and percent body fat (%BF) increased in BB from year 1 to 3 (1.7%). There were no changes in SOC or TR. These results indicate that during their college careers, female collegiate athletes can be expected to maintain their %BF and athletes in sports like SW and VB can anticipate an increase in lean mass, but the increases may be less than many athletes, coaches, and trainers envision.

Assessment of a gravity-based approach to constructing future spatial population scenarios

Spatially explicit projections of global population are of growing importance in scenario-based assessment of anthropogenic climate change and climate related vulnerability. However, to date there are very few spatially explicit projections of the future distribution of global population, and methods for producing such projections are in their infancy. One of the most sophisticated methods currently available, developed as part of the Greenhouse Gas Initiative at the IIASA (Grubler et al. in Technol Forecast Soc Change 74(7):980–1029, 2007), uses the gravity-based population potential model to produce scenario dependent projections. Population potential is widely used as a descriptive tool and in models of spatial allocation. While it is attractive through its simplicity and ability to summarize complex patterns, the population potential model suffers from several well documented problems. This paper provides an assessment of population potential as a tool for constructing future spatial population scenarios, particularly within the context of the pitfalls associated with the model. Despite improvements over other existing methods, it was found that the model is capable of producing only a narrow range of spatial outcomes, is subject to border effects, is restrictive in its handling of urban and rural population dynamics, and will in most cases misallocate population loss. The potential-allocation approach to producing large-scale spatial population scenarios is promising, but several methodological modifications are necessary to address the model’s shortcomings.

Working Class Heroes: Rock Music and British Society in the 1960s and 1970s

David Simonelli's first book, based on his doctoral thesis, explores his claim that popular music ‘provided the best, most lasting and most explicit forum in which to discuss changes in British soc...

Effects of long-term organic material applications and green manure crop cultivation on soil organic carbon in rain fed area of Thailand

A long-term field experiment on organic material application and crop rotation with green manure crops has been conducted since 1976 at Lopburi Agricultural Research and Development Center, Department of Agriculture, Lop Buri Province, Thailand, to clarify the effect of organic materials and green manure crop on soil organic carbon changes. The stock change factors that stand for the relative change of soil organic carbon on the carbon stock in a reference condition (native vegetation that is not degraded or improved). Stock change factor for input of organic matter (FI), representing different levels of C input to soil such as organic material application, crop residue treatment and green manure crop cultivation, was computed with the present field experimental results. While the computed FI of "High input with manure" was within the range of IPCC default FI value, some of the computed FI of " High input without manure" was much higher than the IPCC default though it was varied due to the biomass production and nutrient contents of the green manure crops planted as the second crops after corn. Therefore, the FI computed by field experimental results can contribute to more accurate estimation of SOC changes in farm land especially in Southeast Asia because the default FI mostly depends on the experimental data in temperate zones. Moreover, the field experiment has focused the effect of reduced tillage practices on SOC changes and corn yield since 2011. The results of the experiment will be used to compute Stock change factor for management regime (FMG) which represents the effects of tillage operations.

The prognosis of terrorist attacks - limits of scientific findings

During the past decade, Islamic terrorism is considered as a major political threat which had far-reaching consequences. Criminal law was enacted on both national and supranational levels in Europe. This fundamental change, however, was not prefigured by the terrorist attack in New York on September 11, 2001. It is rather an expression of an ongoing development. In the 1970’s, ethnic or national political terrorism (e.g., IRA, RAF) was on the table and prompted the adoption of security measures. The penal policy agenda was diverted to drug crimes in the 1980’s. In the 1990’s, as a consequence of the opening of the borders in Europe, organized transnational crime took the stage and was considered a critical threat. The adoption of covert investigative measures can especially be traced back to clandestine and partially transnational network structures. In contrast to organized crime, terrorist attacks pose a threat with potential lethal consequences for uninvolved civilians. While the terrorist attack requires publicity to spread anxiety and fear, its preparation necessitates clandestine operation. Hence, at the forefront of combating terrorism are cooperative efforts of the police and intelligence agencies on national and international levels as a vehicle for research on preventative measures against the dangers posed by terrorism. This “transcending of the boundaries” of security in the area of terrorism naturally poses fundamental problems in the realignment of national security architecture [1, 2]. The first question raised is the definition of terrorism. Moreover, early recognition and prevention of danger depend on prognoses that are supposed to illuminate an uncertain future by means of retrospective points of reference. The reliability of the predictions here needs to be approached with caution. In this context, so-called preincident indicators could help improve the reliability of the prognoses. The actions Crime Law Soc Change DOI 10.1007/s10611-013-9466-6