Changes In Demographic Structure Research Articles

Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth

AbstractSeasonal adjustment removes the predictable seasonal variation in GDP. If there is seasonal variation in factor inputs, then seasonal adjustment factors may be correlated with those inputs. This correlation can obscure statistically the importance of those inputs for GDP. This effect is apparent for the demographic composition of the labour force for Canada. Seasonal adjustment also changes the time‐series properties of GDP. Accounting for the seasonal pattern and trend change in demography suggests that the period of reduced volatility in GDP growth for Canada, the ‘Great Moderation,’ can be traced to the changing demographic structure of the labour force.

Active Age Management

Debate on demographic change in industrial countries and its labor-market consequences goes back many years. Governments and NGOs analyze demographic trends and take isolated action to counter these. Corporate awareness of widening gaps between job demands and aging worker capabilities encourages experiments with new job design and organization concepts. But active age management, i.e. concerted action to reconcile humanity of job design with corporate prosperity, is still rare in industry. This contribution reviews anticipated changes in demographic structures against the background of work productivity and possible work-related diseases in an aging workforce. Active age management options are discussed. Results: OECD data on older age groups and deficits in “classic” investigations of age-related work performance are discussed. Age as a factor in ICD 10 diagnoses in 3451 rehabilitation patients, in age-related remuneration levels and work quality is examined. Aspects addressed include seniority-based and deferred remuneration and performance appraisal. Studies in automobile manufacture indicate a low correlation between age and job-relevant capability, except in load handling and assembly-line work, where allowance for aging is desirable. Warnings on shortcomings of cross-section studies and influence of healthy worker effects. Micro- and macro-economic importance of age-differentiated, ergonomic workplace design, work organization and health coaching is emphasized.

Population Policies, Demographic Structural Changes, and the Chinese Household Saving Puzzle

Using combined data from population censuses and Urban Household Surveys, we study the effects of demographic structural changes on the rise in household saving in China. Variations in fines across provinces on unauthorized births under the one-child policy and in cohort-specific fertility influenced by the implementation of population control policies are exploited to facilitate identification. We find evidence that older households with a reduced number of adult children save more because of old-age security concerns, middle-aged households experience an increase in saving due to the lighter burden of dependent children, and younger households save more because of having fewer siblings to share the responsibility of parental care. These findings lend support to a simple economic model in which the effects of population control policies are investigated in the context of household saving decisions in China.

Estimating and Predicting the Distribution of the Number of Visits to the Medical Doctor

In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable tools. This article proposes a prediction method for the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor for a determined population, given a sample that is not necessarily taken from that population. It uses the estimated conditional sample distribution, and it can be applied for forecast scenarios. The methods are illustrated along data from Sidney. The introduced methodology can be applied as well to any other prediction problem of discrete distributions in real, future or any fictitious population. It is therefore also an excellent tool for future predictions, scenarios and policy evaluation.

STATIONARY CARE OF NON-SELF-DEPENDENT PEOPLE IN POLAND IN RESPECT OF PARTICULAR SOLLUTIONS OF EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES

Most European Union Member States have been dealing with the process of getting older their populations for the recent years. This demographic issue has also became remarkable in Poland. That is why Polish population requires taking into consideration social and economic results of demographic structure changes in society. Because of it we can expect the growth of non-self-dependent people needed permanent or temporary care of others in supporting them with everyday basic needs. There will be meaningful increase in the need of not only health service bust most of all nursing services. The main aim of the article is to show up-to-date legal and organisational situation of non-self-dependent people care in Poland, in comparison with solutions applied by other EU Member States. The author has come up with the thesis that in order to grant the comfortable living conditions to non-self-dependent patients in Poland it is necessary to implement the public nursing insurance. The research which was done was to conduct analysis of Polish legal regulations and estimating the potential in terms of stationary long term care in particular voivodeships. The research of other EU Member States solutions has been done as well. Results and conclusions of the research can be really effective in non-selfdependent people situation.

Demography of Immigrant Youth: Past, Present, and Future

Jeffrey Passel surveys demographic trends and projections in the U.S. youth population, with an emphasis on trends among immigrant youth. He traces shifts in the youth population over the past hundred years, examines population projections through 2050, and offers some observations about the likely impact of the immigrant youth population on American society. Passel provides data on the legal status of immigrant youth and their families and on their geographic distribution and concentration across the United States. He emphasizes two demographic shifts. First, immigrant youth-defined as those children under age eighteen who are either foreign-born or U.S.-born to immigrant parents-now account for one-fourth of the nation's 75 million children. By 2050 they are projected to make up one-third of more than 100 million U.S. children. Second, the wave of immigration under way since the mid-1960s has made children the most racially and ethnically diverse age group in the United States. In 1960 Hispanic, Asian, and mixed-race youth made up about 6 percent of all U.S. children; today that share is almost 30 percent. During that same period the share of non-Hispanic white children steadily dropped from about 81 percent to 56 percent, while the share of black children climbed very slightly to 14 percent. By 2050 the share of non-Hispanic white children is projected to drop to 40 percent, while that of Hispanic children will increase to about one-third. This changing demographic structure in U.S. youth is likely to present policy makers with several challenges in coming decades, including higher rates of poverty among youth, particularly among foreign-born children and children of undocumented parents; high concentrations of immigrants in a handful of states; and a lack of political voice. A related challenge may be intergenerational competition between youth and the elderly for governmental support such as education funding, Social Security, and government health benefits. In conclusion, Passel notes that today's immigrants and their children will shape many aspects of American society and will provide virtually all the growth in the U.S. labor force over the next forty years. Their integration into American society and their accumulation of human capital thus require continued attention from researchers and policy makers.

Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper examines the economic implications of demographic change in the Chinese context. We extend the growth equation by incorporating age structure dynamics and apply it to China’s provincial-level data during the period 1989–2004. We find that changes in demographic structure, especially the contribution of fertility decline to lower youth dependency, have helped fuel China’s economic growth since 1989. The effect of demographic change on income growth operates mainly through its impact on steady state income levels and the effect of age structure is more pronounced in provinces that are more open to market forces. We also find a significant feedback effect of economic growth on demographic behaviors through the mechanisms of birth rates, marriage age and life expectancy.

MP-05.09: Treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia with plasmakinetic vaporization: six-year follow-up

Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia, parallel to the changing demographic structure of community, is becoming a more common condition. Transurethral resection is still accepted as the most effective treatment modality but different treatment modalities appear parallel to the new technological development. In this study we compared the long-term results of transurethral resection (TURP) and plasmakinetic vaporization (PKVP) (Gyrus Medical Ltd., Bucks, UK).

Systems medicine and the integration of bioinformatic tools for the diagnosis of alzheimer's disease

Because of the changes in demographic structure, the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease is expected to rise dramatically over the next decades. The progression of this degenerative and terminal disease is gradual, with the subclinical stage of illness believed to span several decades. Despite this, no therapy to prevent or cure Alzheimer's disease is currently available. Early disease detection is still important for delaying the onset of the disease with pharmacological treatment and/or lifestyle changes, assessing the efficacy of potential therapeutic agents, or monitoring disease progression more closely using medical imaging. Sensitive cerebrospinal-fluid-derived marker candidates exist, but given the invasiveness of sample collection their use in routine diagnostics may be limited. The pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease is complex and poorly understood. There is thus a strong case for integrating information across multiple physiological levels, from molecular profiling (metabolomics, lipidomics, proteomics and transcriptomics) and brain imaging to cognitive assessments. To facilitate the integration of heterogeneous data, such as molecular and image data, sophisticated statistical approaches are needed to segment the image data and study their dependencies on molecular changes in the same individuals. Molecular profiling, combined with biophysical modeling of molecular assemblies associated with the disease, offer an opportunity to link the molecular pathway changes with cell- and tissue-level physiology and structure. Given that data acquired at different levels can carry complementary information about early Alzheimer's disease pathology, it is expected that their integration will improve early detection as well as our understanding of the disease.

El envejecimiento demográfico del Mediterráneo: 1950-2050

Between 1950 and 2050, population aged 65 and over in the Mediterranean will pass from 15 to 126 million people; that is to say, one in five inhabitants of the Mediterranean area will be a senior in 2050. The process of population aging in the Mediterranean region shows, on a small scale, the changing demographic structure that will affect the entire planet. All Mediterranean countries, regardless of their demographic, economic, social, political and cultural differences, will be subject to significant changes in its age structure, which will become characterized by an increase in both the absolute and relative amount of the seniors. In this context, although differences will be significant among countries in both the pace and the intensity of the phenomenon, the universality of it emerges as the relevant feature.

Future marketing drivers for the forest products industry

The forest products industry in North America is increasingly losing its share in its domestic markets. The pressure of low cost manufacturing combined with a slowing economy has painfully caused many mills to close and many workers to lose their jobs in recent years. We ask ourselves whether the forest products industry will be able to survive these gloomy times and what, if any are the factors that would drive the future of the forest products industry. Opening our minds to global markets beyond domestic consumption, targeting products towards changing demographic structure and resulting change in consumer tastes, developing and marketing products with the environmental conscious consumer in mind, product innovations, efficient management of the supply chain, and trade practices and policies will be some of the marketing drivers in the forest products industry in the new era.

Local Governments in the Wake of Demographic Change: Evidence from German Municipalities

Deutsche Stadtverwaltungen werden erwartungsgemas in den kommenden Jahrzehnten unter einem demographischen Wandel zu leiden haben, welcher nicht nur in Form eines allgemeinen Bevolkerungsruckgangs, sondern auch durch einen Wandel in der demographischen Struktur (d.h. veranderte Altersstruktur durch weniger Junge und mehr Alte, hohere Abhangigkeitsrate usw.) zum Ausdruck kommt. Wir untersuchen die diesbezugliche Anfalligkeit von dezentralen Regierungen (zugrunde liegt eine Stichprobe von 1021 Stadt- und Gemeindeverwaltungen im Land Baden-Wurttemberg), indem wir die Elastizitat der Kostenfunktionen bezuglich der demographischen Charakteristika der jeweiligen Stadt- und Gemeindeverwaltungen bestimmen. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass gerade kleinere Gemeinden unter dem steigenden Kostendruck leiden, der mit den meisten vorhergesagten demographischen Veranderungen einhergeht. Wenn keine ubergeordnete Regierungsebene diese kleineren Verwaltungsgebiete unterstutzt (z.B. durch ein Finanzausgleichsystem), dann unterstutzen unsere Ergebnisse eine kritische Uberprufung von fiskalischen Grenzen bzw. der Ausweitung der inter-kommunalen Kooperation.

Evolutionary dynamics of molecular markers during local adaptation: a case study in Drosophila subobscura.

BackgroundNatural selection and genetic drift are major forces responsible for temporal genetic changes in populations. Furthermore, these evolutionary forces may interact with each other. Here we study the impact of an ongoing adaptive process at the molecular genetic level by analyzing the temporal genetic changes throughout 40 generations of adaptation to a common laboratory environment. Specifically, genetic variability, population differentiation and demographic structure were compared in two replicated groups of Drosophila subobscura populations recently sampled from different wild sources.ResultsWe found evidence for a decline in genetic variability through time, along with an increase in genetic differentiation between all populations studied. The observed decline in genetic variability was higher during the first 14 generations of laboratory adaptation. The two groups of replicated populations showed overall similarity in variability patterns. Our results also revealed changing demographic structure of the populations during laboratory evolution, with lower effective population sizes in the early phase of the adaptive process. One of the ten microsatellites analyzed showed a clearly distinct temporal pattern of allele frequency change, suggesting the occurrence of positive selection affecting the region around that particular locus.ConclusionGenetic drift was responsible for most of the divergence and loss of variability between and within replicates, with most changes occurring during the first generations of laboratory adaptation. We also found evidence suggesting a selective sweep, despite the low number of molecular markers analyzed. Overall, there was a similarity of evolutionary dynamics at the molecular level in our laboratory populations, despite distinct genetic backgrounds and some differences in phenotypic evolution.

世代別積立方式に基づく公的年金制度への移行方法

In this paper, we propose transferring methods from the present pay-as-you-go scheme to a generation-based funding scheme. We make a mathematical model for the public pension system consisting of national pension, employee pension and mutual pension. Simulating the mathematical model the necessary government contribution is evaluated for the case with or without transferring to the generation-based funding scheme where we take into account the demographic structural change and the variation in economic situation.

Symptoms of mental health and psychotropic drug use among old people in geriatric care, changes between 1982 and 2000

Some major changes have occurred in the care of older people in institutions providing geriatric care from a few decades ago to today. How these changes regarding organization, diagnosis and pharmacological treatment, have affected the mental health of the population in general remains unclear. The prevalence of symptoms of mental health in two comparable cross-sectional surveys from 1982 and 2000 were studied. The study population consisted of all the people aged 65 years or older living in geriatric care units in the county of Västerbotten, in northern Sweden. Multivariate regression was used to correct for the effect of change in demographic structure. Six out of 14 symptoms showed a significant decrease, correcting for demographical changes. These were, expressed as descriptions of behaviours, Sad (OR 0.72), Crying (OR 0.67), Fearful (OR 0.73), Disturbed and restless (OR 0.84), Lacking initiative (OR 0.67) and Does not cooperate (OR 0.67).Two symptoms showed a significant increase, Overactive/manic (OR 1.44) and Hallucinates visually (OR 1.27). The use of antidepressants had increased from 6.3% 1982 to 39.9% 2000. The use of minor tranquillizers had increased from 13.2% to 39.2% and the prevalence of antipsychotic use had decreased from 25.1% to 20.5%. This article clearly shows that the prevalence of several important symptoms and behaviours in a geriatric care population have decreased over the course of eighteen years, correcting for demographical changes. This might at least partly be accounted for by today's more widespread use of antidepressants and benzodiazepines.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma associated with khat chewing

The incidence of oral squamous cell carcinoma has been long associated with smoking, alcohol, and betel quid/areca nut chewing. This article presents a case of a 42-year-old female patient with squamous cell carcinoma of the floor of the mouth, associated with khat chewing. This relatively early presentation of oral squamous cell carcinoma may be linked to the synergistic effect of khat chewing and other known carcinogens such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and nitrosamines such as 4-(N-methyl-N-nitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone, 4-(N-methyl-N-nitrosamino)-4-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanal. With the changing demographic structure and migration between countries, khat chewing is of increasing significance as it may contribute to the etiology of squamous cell carcinoma in developed countries.

Fiscal implications of AIDS in South Africa

The number of people living with HIV is alarmingly large. In addition to the incomprehensible human suffering of those directly affected, AIDS also has large, negative economic effects. In this paper, I study the fiscal implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa in a standard neo-classical growth model. I find that an antiretroviral program is to a large extent self financing. Improvement in dependency ratios and health care cost savings would pay for Rand 144 billion of a full epidemiological intervention. The indirect effect through the changing demographic structure will be more important than the direct health care cost saving effect. I also explore different taxation policies. The households would be willing to sacrifice an amount equal to 12% of GDP in the first period to be subject to an optimal (Ramsey) fiscal policy rather than an alternative fixed debt to GDP policy. The optimal policy implies an increase in government debt during the peak of the epidemic.

Demographic structure and capital accumulation

This paper develops an overlapping-generations (OLG) model to analyze the consequences of demographic structure changes induced by an exogenous shift in the birth rate. We first show that a finite growth rate of the population that maximizes long-run capital per capita exists. Then, we examine the theoretical properties of this growth rate by showing that: (i) it corresponds to the demographic structure such that the average ages of capital holders and workers are equal; (ii) it is associated to an efficient steady state; (iii) it increases with compulsory transfers from younger to older generations. Finally, we explain why standard OLG models do not exhibit such a growth rate.

Migration Directions and Policy in Malaysia

The discussion in this article will attempt to establish the general pattern of demographic structural change in Peninsular Malaysia and its constituent regions, and to examine the extent to which government policy (restructuring population and decreasing poverty) has influenced the pattern of regional inequalities in Peninsular Malaysia. Although rural-to-urban migration has contributed to decreasing poverty and income distribution, it has also had side effects for the urban and rural population. In the urban areas, these include urban poverty, housing problems and a high influx of foreign workers; in the rural areas, they include an increased dependency ratio, greater gender inequality, increased poverty and abandoned housing.

Sozialabbau im Namen der Generationengerechtigkeit?

During recent years a debate about violated justice between the generations has become a popular issue in the political discussion in almost all western societies. The often used label “generation justice” is used as a justification for a deconstruction of elements of social policy, especially in the fields of health insurance and public pensions. The main argument is due to a changing demographic structure, in which social systems are no longer able to guarantee high standard social services. This essay tries to critically asses the current debate about intergenerational justice and to focus at first on improved economic foundation for transfers between the different generations. In a second step it is asked, if generation justice is a relevant topic for young people in their ordinary lives. In a final third step the essay will try to give a solid answer to the demographic change, which can be the foundation for a new contract between younger and older people.