Causal Chain Research Articles

A new method of dynamic network security analysis based on dynamic uncertain causality graph

In the context of cloud computing, network attackers usually exhibit complex, dynamic, and diverse behavior characteristics. Existing research methods, such as Bayesian attack graphs, lack evidence correlation and real-time reflection of the network attack events, and high computational complexity for attack analysis. To solve these problems, this study proposes a Dynamic Uncertain Causal Attack Graph (DUCAG) model and a Causal Chain-based Risk Probability Calculation (CCRP) algorithm. The DUCAG model is constructed to represent the uncertain underlying causalities among network attack events, and the CCRP algorithm aims at dynamically updating the causality weights among different network attack events and attacker hypotheses based on alarm information and causal chain reasoning process. By causality simplification and causality reasoning methods, the CCRP efficiently predicts the attacker behaviors and potential attack likelihood under uncertain time-varying attack situations, and is robust to the incompleteness and redundancy in alarm information. Four experiments under different attack scenarios demonstrate that, the DUCAG model can effectively characterize and predict the complex and uncertain attack causalities, in a manner of high time efficiency. The proposed method has application significance on cloud computing platforms by dynamically evaluating network security status, predicting the future behaviors of attackers, and assisting in adjusting network defense strategies.

Archaean continental crust formed from mafic cumulates

Large swaths of juvenile crust with tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) composition were added to the continental crust from about 3.5 billion years ago. Although TTG magmatism marked a pivotal step in early crustal growth and cratonisation, the petrogenetic processes, tectonic setting and sources of TTGs are not well known. Here, we investigate the composition and petrogenesis of Archaean TTGs using high field-strength-element systematics. The Nb concentrations and Ti anomalies of TTGs show the overwhelming effects of amphibole and plagioclase fractionation and permit constraints on the composition of primary TTG melts. These melts are relatively incompatible element-poor and characterised by variably high La/Sm, Sm/Yb and Sr/Y, and positive Eu anomalies. Differences in these parameters are not indicative of melting depth, but instead track differences in the degree of melting and fractional crystallisation. Primary TTGs formed by the melting of rutile- and garnet-bearing plagioclase-cumulate rocks that resided in proto-continental roots. The partial melting of these rocks is part of a causal chain that links TTG magmatism to the formation of sanukitoids and K-rich granites. Together, these processes explain the growth and differentiation of the continental crust during the Archaean without requiring external forcing such as meteorite impact or the start of global plate tectonics.

Variability in auditory processing performance is associated with reading difficulties rather than with history of otitis media.

The nature and cause of auditory processing deficits in dyslexic individuals have been debated for decades. Auditory processing deficits were argued to be the first step in a causal chain of difficulties, leading to difficulties in speech perception and thereby phonological processing and literacy difficulties. More recently, it has been argued that auditory processing difficulties may not be causally related to language and literacy difficulties. This study compares two groups who have phonological processing impairments for different reasons: dyslexia and a history of otitis media (OM). We compared their discrimination thresholds and response variability to chronological age- and reading age-matched controls, across three auditory processing tasks: frequency discrimination, rise-time discrimination and speech perception. Dyslexic children showed raised frequency discrimination thresholds in comparison with age-matched controls but did not differ from reading age-matched controls or individuals with a history of OM. There were no group differences on speech perception or rise-time tasks. For the dyslexic children, there was an association between phonological awareness and frequency discrimination response variability, but no association with thresholds. These findings are not consistent with a 'causal chain' explanation but could be accounted for within a multiple deficits view of literacy difficulties.

Encoding without perceiving: Can memories be implanted?

ABSTRACT The origin of memories is thought to be found in sensory perception. This conception is central to how the memory sciences characterize encoding. This paper considers how novel memory traces can be formed independently of external sensory inputs. I present a case study in which memory traces are created without sensory perception using a technique I call optogenetic memory implantation. Comparing this artificial process with normal memory encoding, I consider its implications for rethinking the causal chain that leads to remembering.

Coal mine roof accident causation modeling and system reliability research based on directed weighted network

Coal mine roof accidents have frequently caused massive casualties and economic losses. To understand the mechanism of roof accidents, 205 roof accidents in China from 2013 to 2022 were selected, and a total of 44 accident causal factors were identified, including the human-material-environment-supervisory and the final causal factor, and each causation chain was analyzed. Accordingly, a complex network is used to construct a causation network model for roof accidents, and the structural characteristics of the network are analyzed to obtain the key causal factors and important inter-causal relationships. Combined with the robustness analysis, three different intentional attacks are selected, and it is found that the proposed three methods significantly reduce the network efficiency compared with the random attack, and the deliberate attack based on the degree ranking has the best effect, which indicates that the developed method can effectively identify the causes of accidents. This study provides an important basis for the decision-making of coal mine roof accident prevention and reveals the difficulties of accident prevention, and also provides ideas and references for the study of accident mechanism and the construction of accident causation network model using complex networks.

Transferability of Lessons From Program Evaluations: Iron Laws, Hiding Hands and the Evidence Ecosystem.

Assessing the transferability of lessons from social research or evaluation continues to raise challenges. Efforts to identify transferable lessons can be based on two different forms of argumentation. The first draws upon statistics and causal inferences. The second involves constructing a reasoned case based on weighing up different data collected along the causal chain from designing to delivery. Both approaches benefit from designing research based upon existing evidence and ensuring that the descriptions of the programme, context, and intended beneficiaries are sufficiently rich. Identifying transferable lessons should not be thought of as a one-off event but involves contributing to the iterative and learning of a scientific community. To understand the circumstances under which findings can be confidently transferred, we need to understand: (1) How far and why outcomes of interest have multiple, interacting and fluctuating causes. (2) The program design and implementation capacity. (3) Prior knowledge and causal landscapes (and how far these are included in the theory of change). (4) New and relevant knowledge; what can we learn in our 'disputatious community of truth seekers'.

Child deaths caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia: a secondary analysis of Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data

Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important cause of nosocomial and community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis in children, and antibiotic-resistant K pneumoniae is a growing public health threat. We aimed to characterise child mortality associated with this pathogen in seven high-mortality settings. We analysed Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data on the causes of deaths in children younger than 5 years and stillbirths in sites located in seven countries across sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and south Asia (Bangladesh) from Dec 9, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. CHAMPS sites conduct active surveillance for deaths in catchment populations and following reporting of an eligible death or stillbirth seek consent for minimally invasive tissue sampling followed by extensive aetiological testing (microbiological, molecular, and pathological); cases are reviewed by expert panels to assign immediate, intermediate, and underlying causes of death. We reported on susceptibility to antibiotics for which at least 30 isolates had been tested, and excluded data on antibiotics for which susceptibility testing is not recommended for Klebsiella spp due to lack of clinical activity (eg, penicillin and ampicillin). Among 2352 child deaths with cause of death assigned, 497 (21%, 95% CI 20-23) had K pneumoniae in the causal chain of death; 100 (20%, 17-24) had K pneumoniae as the underlying cause. The frequency of K pneumoniae in the causal chain was highest in children aged 1-11 months (30%, 95% CI 26-34; 144 of 485 deaths) and 12-23 months (28%,22-34; 63 of 225 deaths); frequency by site ranged from 6% (95% CI 3-11; 11 of 184 deaths) in Bangladesh to 52%(44-61; 71 of 136 deaths) in Ethiopia. K pneumoniae was in the causal chain for 450 (22%, 95% CI 20-24) of 2023 deaths that occurred in health facilities and 47 (14%, 11-19) of 329 deaths in the community. The most common clinical syndromes among deaths with K pneumoniae in the causal chain were sepsis (44%, 95% CI 40-49; 221 of 2352 deaths), sepsis in conjunction with pneumonia (19%, 16-23; 94 of 2352 deaths), and pneumonia (16%, 13-20; 80 of 2352 deaths). Among K pneumoniae isolates tested, 121 (84%) of 144 were resistant to ceftriaxone and 80 (75%) of 106 to gentamicin. K pneumoniae substantially contributed to deaths in the first 2 years of life across multiple high-mortality settings, and resistance to antibiotics used for sepsis treatment was common. Improved strategies are needed to rapidly identify and appropriately treat children who might be infected with this pathogen. These data suggest a potential impact of developing and using effective K pneumoniae vaccines in reducing neonatal, infant, and child deaths globally. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between obesity, physical activity, and cognitive decline in Chinese middle and old-aged adults: a mediation analysis

Background and objectivesEpidemiological evidence on obesity and cognitive decline in middle and old-aged individuals is controversial and the effect of physical activity in this chain is sparse and limited. This study aimed to characterize the association between obesity and cognitive decline and the mediating role of physical activity.MethodsData from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used, including 7,392 participants aged ≥ 45 years between 2011 and 2018. Cognitive function was assessed via episodic memory and mental status. The total score of cognitive function was the sum of the above two dimensions (0–31 points). The Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to identify the potential heterogeneity of longitudinal changes in cognitive function. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression was used to investigate associations between obesity and cognitive trajectories, taking body mass index (BMI) as the indicator of obesity. Mediation analysis was performed to examine the potential causal chain in which physical activity mediates the relationship between BMI and cognitive decline.ResultsOf the 7,392 analyzed patients (mean [SD] age, 58.0 [8.5] years; 3,916 [53%] male), the median (interquartile range [IQR]) of BMI was 23.4 (21.1–26.0). Four trajectories were identified by the GBTM model, including the high stable (14.9%), the middle stable (46.0%), the middle decline (29.9%), and the low decline groups (9.2%). After controlling potential confounders, obesity was associated with the low decline groups compared with normal weight (adjusted OR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.70–0.94). Mediation analyses showed that only vigorous physical activity significantly explained 5.94% (95% CI, 0.29-11.60%) of the relationship between obesity and cognitive decline. Sensitivity analyses in different subgroups showed comparable results.ConclusionThis study suggests that vigorous physical activity mediates less than 10% of the association between obesity and cognitive decline in middle and old-aged adults. Further studies are warranted to explore the potential factors related to the obesity paradox in the cognitive field.

Waste management behaviour in the most populated capital city of the world

PurposeA prime objective of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (SBA; Clean India Mission) is to motivate people to segregate their household waste. The purpose of this study is to assess the ground reality of waste management behaviour of Delhi residents with the help of a modified Value–Belief–Norm (VBN) model. Past researches point the need to include cost as a variable in the VBN model. This study fulfils this need and tests cost as one of the variables on the gathered data.Design/methodology/approachThe research data were gathered by interacting with the people and the civic staff in the jurisdiction of the three Delhi municipalities through a stratified sampling technique (N = 250). The structural equation modelling was used to analyse the collected data.FindingsThe modified VBN model explains the waste management behaviour, but the variables do not follow the exact causal chain. Values, awareness of consequences, ascription of responsibility and personal norms all explain the resident's waste management behaviour. However, cost limits the resident's waste management behaviour.Research limitations/implicationsThe study could only achieve a moderate model fit; its sample size was small; and data were collected through self-reported questionnaire.Practical implicationsThree main practical implications of the study are: (1) While designing waste management solutions, due importance must be given to the cost to be borne by people for adopting these solutions. (2) Design such interventions that target residents' values to convince them to make the desired behavioural change. (3) People need be educated about the ways to sort waste and made aware of the importance of waste segregation in eradicating the urban waste mess.Originality/valueThe paper is an original contribution to testing a modified VBN model in predicting waste management behaviour. The modified model includes cost as a variable missing in the previous research. This research is useful in the backdrop of the SBA and provides suggestions for policymakers and pro-environment researchers.

Inactivation of face-selective neurons alters eye movements when free viewing faces.

During free viewing, faces attract gaze and induce specific fixation patterns corresponding to the facial features. This suggests that neurons encoding the facial features are in the causal chain that steers the eyes. However, there is no physiological evidence to support a mechanistic link between face-encoding neurons in high-level visual areas and the oculomotor system. In this study, we targeted the middle face patches of the inferior temporal (IT) cortex in two macaque monkeys using an functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) localizer. We then utilized muscimol microinjection to unilaterally suppress IT neural activity inside and outside the face patches and recorded eye movements while the animals free viewing natural scenes. Inactivation of the face-selective neurons altered the pattern of eye movements on faces: The monkeys found faces in the scene but neglected the eye contralateral to the inactivation hemisphere. These findings reveal the causal contribution of the high-level visual cortex in eye movements.

Intermediary Mechanism Study on the Impact of ESG Assessment on Bond Issuance Interest Rates

ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assessment is a widely recognized system for evaluating corporate sustainable development by international investors. The emphasis and improvement of ESG indices can have multiple effects on corporate operations and development. This paper focuses on the impact of ESG on corporate bond financing interest rates, considering the relevant relationships and intermediary mechanisms involved. The results indicate that, with controlled variables considered, corporate bonds with higher ESG scores tend to have lower issuance interest rates. Furthermore, besides the direct impact on bond rates, ESG scores also generate indirect effects through the intermediary variable of financing constraints. The study establishes from a corporate financing perspective that the development of ESG assessment has positive implications for corporate operations and confirms the intermediary role of financing constraints in this causal chain. According to the results, targeted recommendations are proposed for corporate operations: to reduce financing costs, continually optimize ESG and financing constraints.

Politics, History and Logic in Max Weber

The article illustrates the different meanings of the term “logic” in Weber's work and then proceeds to discuss his approach to the explanation of historical events and in particular to counterfactual analysis. Weber's epistemology is first situated within the neo-Kantian debates of his time as well as legal positivism and historical jurisprudence. The article then focuses on this author's conception of science as a value sphere, on the aims and methods of explanation in the social and historical sciences and on the key concepts of possibility judgements and adequate causation. The central role played by counterfactuals and modal logic is illustrated through the example of the battle of Marathon, which Weber himself saw as the starting point of a causal chain leading to the rise of Western rationalism. The article concludes by highlighting the pioneering role of Weber's counterfactualism for the subsequent development of possible worlds theory and its use in the causal analysis of singular historical events.

An Application of Causal-Chain Windowing Theory to the Teaching of Writing

Causal-chain windowing is a kind of cognitive process of having the sense of causality in mind, and the cause and result are windowed and attract the attention. Given the appropriate context, the reader can infer the remainder of the event, and different expressions of the same scene, windowed in several different ways, may result in different effects on readers’ mind. Therefore causal-chain windowing theory is useful for the teaching of writing, relating to not only static descriptions as expositional writing, but also dynamic ones as narrative writing, through proper application of the theory. Although many previous linguists and teachers have applied many other theories to the teaching of writing from several angles, few have applied causal-chain windowing theory to the teaching of writing. And the author aims to find a relatively new angle in the old topic – teaching of writing. This paper sets about from some key notions and introduces causal-chain windowing theory, and applies the latter in two aspects, windowing of attention and causal chain. The paper attempts to illustrate the advantages of applying causal-chain windowing theory to the teaching of writing with some examples and claims that causal-chain windowing theory gives clues to writing “different” articles. The aspect of windowing of attention directs students to change sentence patterns and paragraph constructions, and the other aspect, causal chain, leads them to use proper words to express right causal relationship.

Cultural modes of conflict resolution, roommate satisfaction, and school belonging: The role of socioeconomic status in university peer relations

It is often assumed that ethnic differences are the source of cross-cultural conflict and misunderstandings in the United States. However, research indicates that socioeconomic differences, i.e., family ecologies, play an important role in producing cross-cultural value conflict between student peers in a university setting. Our prior research revealed two resolution styles: (1) a collectivistic strategy – maintaining interpersonal harmony by avoidance or implicit communication, or (2) an individualistic strategy – advocating for and expressing one's personal feelings via explicit communication. In a small qualitative study of first-generation university students from Latin American immigrant families, improved roommate relations resulted from use of the more individualistic strategy. The purpose of the present study was to extend this work by examining whether the positive role of explicit conflict resolution with dormitory roommates generalizes to a large diverse sample of university students in the United States and to examine the role of socioeconomic status, a key aspect of the ecological surround. By means of a survey of 347 first-year UCLA students, we explored the interrelations of socioeconomic status, conflict resolution style, roommate relations, sense of belonging in the university environment, and psychological distress. Socioeconomic status consisted of parent education and income, which were closely related. Being a first-generation university student (i.e., neither parent had a postsecondary degree) was, as predicted, associated with harmony-maintaining modes of resolving roommate conflicts. In accord with our earlier qualitative findings, these modes of conflict resolution were less effective than an explicit mode in producing satisfying roommate relations. Less satisfying roommate relations led, in turn, to a lower sense of belonging in the university environment and more psychological distress. This causal chain from first-generation university status to less satisfying roommate relations, a lower sense of belonging, and more psychological distress may help explain the prevalence of "imposter" syndrome among first-generation university students.

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

Abstract The state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

AbstractHydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural and social systems. However, current decision‐making processes typically only consider one impact and disaster event at a time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, and conditional dependencies between impacts. Analyses capturing these complex patterns across space and time are thus needed to inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims to bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics of the multi‐sector CCI of hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, and potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing a single methodological approach, we advocate for methodological pluralism. We see complementary or even convergent roles for analyses based on quantitative (e.g., data‐mining, systems modeling) and qualitative methods (e.g., mental models, qualitative storylines). The data‐driven and knowledge‐driven methods provided here can serve as a useful starting point for understanding the dynamics of both high‐frequency CCI and low‐likelihood but high‐impact CCI. With this perspective, we hope to foster research on CCI to improve the development of adaptation strategies for reducing the risk of hydrological extremes.

A methodology for analysing the impacts of climate change on maritime security

This paper presents a methodology for developing a social Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) which analyses the impacts of climate change on maritime crime and maritime insecurities. The use of a CEA methodology, including the use of the Effect to Impact Pathway will enable mapping the relationships between certain ‘Activities’ (e.g. human-induced emissions of greenhouse gasses), the ‘Pressure’ engendered (e.g. warming sea temperatures) and their ‘Impacts’ (e.g. food shortages) via ‘Receptors’ (e.g. fishing communities) on specific sectors of society (in this case maritime migration and maritime crime, e.g. illegal fishing). This paper provides a Proof of Concept (PoC) for using such a methodology and shows the applicability of a multidisciplinary approach in understanding causal chains. In this PoC, the authors are generating a Non-Geographic Assessment Map that investigates the ‘Impacts’ that the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have on maritime security. The proposed analytical tool can then be applied in further studies to assess the dependencies and synergies between climate change and the occurrence of maritime insecurity.

Hegel’s Estimation of Evolution

This paper explores Hegel’s perspective on development within nature, his supposed rejection of evolution, and his concept of nature as a “system of stages.” It argues that interpreting Hegel through the lens of emergentist thinking provides a more accurate understanding of his conception of nature and its development, as well as his critique of evolution. The paper is structured in three parts. First, we introduce emergentist theory, exploring its contemporary and historical meanings to establish where Hegel fits within this framework. Second, we carefully examine Hegel’s critique of evolution, particularly his opposition to simple causal chains, and clarify what “evolution” meant in his time. Finally, we argue that viewing Hegel through emergentist theory not only rehabilitates his ideas but also resolves lingering concerns about his understanding of development within nature. This paper aims to open new avenues for interpreting Hegel’s Philosophy of Nature.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cognitive Function: Findings from a Cross-Sectional Study in Obese Chinese Township Population from 45 to 75 Years.

Cognitive dysfunction is highly prevalent in obese people, and food is a key factor in obesity, and dietary inflammatory index (DII) can reflect whether diet has anti-inflammatory or pro-inflammatory potential. In addition, dietary fatty acid consumption is linked to inflammation, obesity, and cognitive impairment. Erythrocyte membrane fatty acids can reflect dietary fatty acid intake. Our hypothesis was that erythrocyte membrane fatty acids might have a significant impact on the relationship between DII and cognition in obese individuals, and we designed experiments to test the hypothesis. In three villages in Beijing, we collected 579 respondents from individuals 45 to 75 years old and categorized them by body mass index. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score and DII score was calculated and gas chromatography was used to measure the proportion of erythrocyte membrane fatty acids. The relationship between the DII score and cognition was examined using multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression. Mediation analysis can help to understand the causal chain between variables, deeply explore the internal relationship and mechanism of action between variables. So a multiple chain mediation model was developed to investigate the mediating factors between the DII score and cognitive association. According to adjusted linear regression, higher DII scores were linked to lower MoCA scores in the obese group. The negative correlation between DII score and cognitive function score remains in binary linear regression. We discovered through mediation analysis that erythrocyte membrane fatty acids mediate the detrimental link between DII and cognitive function in obese individuals. We propose that higher DII scores in obese people are associated with a decline in cognitive function. In addition, this effect might be mediated via the fatty acids in the erythrocyte membrane.

Mediation effect of stroke recurrence in the association between post-stroke lactate dehydrogenase and functional disability.

We aimed to use lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a marker of inflammation burden and quantify post-stroke inflammation's direct and indirect effect on functional disability. We analyzed 5,129 patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) admitted to Shenyang First People's Hospital. Stroke recurrence and functional outcome measured by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) were assessed at 90 days. Functional disability was defined as mRS score > 2. Receiver operating characteristic curve and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were conducted to illustrate the associations between LDH levels and 90-day functional outcomes in patients with AIS. Mediation analyses were performed to examine the potential causal chain in which stroke recurrence may mediate the relationship between LDH and functional outcome. Positive correlation between LDH and hs-CRP was found and mediation effects of stroke recurrence in the association between LDH or hs-CRP and functional disability were both less than 20%. Sensitivity analyses in different subgroups showed comparable results. Among 5,129 included AIS patients, the median (IQR) level of LDH was 186 (161-204.4) U/L. Functional disability was seen in 1200 (23.4%) patients and recurrence was observed in 371(7.2%) patients at 90-day follow-up. Each standard deviation increase in the concentration of LDH was linked to an increased risk of functional disability (adjusted odds ratio[aOR], 1.07; 95%CI,1.04-1.09) and stroke recurrence (aOR,1.02; 95%CI, 1.01-1.04) within 90 days. The highest quartile of LDH (>204.2 U/L) had an elevated risk of suffering functional disability (aOR, 1.21; 95%CI, 1.00-1.47) and recurrence (aOR, 1.21; 95%CI,1.00-1.47) compared with the lowest quartile of LDH (<161 U/L). Stroke recurrence during follow-up explained 12.90% (95%CI, 6.22-21.16%) of the relationship between LDH and functional disability. Positive correlation between LDH and hs-CRP was found and mediation effects of recurrence in the association between LDH or hs-CRP and functional disability were both less than 20%. Sensitivity analyses in different subgroups showed comparable results. The relationship between LDH and functional disability at 90 days among AIS patients is partially mediated by stroke recurrence, accounting for less than 20%. LDH deserves equal attention as hs-CRP in predicting recurrence and functional outcome. In addition to traditional secondary prevention measures, innovative anti-inflammatory strategies warrant further investigation.