Coal mine roof accident causation modeling and system reliability research based on directed weighted network

Abstract

Coal mine roof accidents have frequently caused massive casualties and economic losses. To understand the mechanism of roof accidents, 205 roof accidents in China from 2013 to 2022 were selected, and a total of 44 accident causal factors were identified, including the human-material-environment-supervisory and the final causal factor, and each causation chain was analyzed. Accordingly, a complex network is used to construct a causation network model for roof accidents, and the structural characteristics of the network are analyzed to obtain the key causal factors and important inter-causal relationships. Combined with the robustness analysis, three different intentional attacks are selected, and it is found that the proposed three methods significantly reduce the network efficiency compared with the random attack, and the deliberate attack based on the degree ranking has the best effect, which indicates that the developed method can effectively identify the causes of accidents. This study provides an important basis for the decision-making of coal mine roof accident prevention and reveals the difficulties of accident prevention, and also provides ideas and references for the study of accident mechanism and the construction of accident causation network model using complex networks.