Against the backdrop of carbon reduction and low-carbon economic development, this study takes the global paper industry chain as its research subject and employs the SBM-GML model and input–output model to measure the low-carbon TFP and value chain embedding levels of 42 major global economies from 2001 to 2021. Using fixed-effects and threshold effect models, the study examines both the overall and stage-specific impacts of value chain embedding on low-carbon TFP. The results reveal that between 2001 and 2021, while the low-carbon TFP of major countries in the global paper industry chain steadily increased, significant disparities persisted among them. Most countries experienced low-carbon TFP growth driven by technological progress, whereas only a few high low-carbon TFP nations also demonstrated upward trends in technical efficiency. The division of labour position in the value chain significantly promoted low-carbon TFP at a ratio of 1:0.26. In contrast, the low-carbon TFP effects of participation displayed a nonlinear impact with a threshold of 0.21: it exerted an insignificant inhibitory effect in the initial stage but, upon crossing the threshold, resulted in a significant positive effect with a ratio of 1:0.13. These findings highlight the importance of optimizing GVC strategies to achieve sustainable industrial transformation and growth.
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