Cereal Supply Research Articles

A NEW STUDY OF UNITED KINGDOM CEREAL SUPPLY

This paper reports on an analysis designed to build and empirically test a model to explain the movements of U.K. cereal acreages in the post‐1954 period. It is acknowledged that the results presented are a preliminary step in obtaining a fully acceptable model of U.K. cereal supply. Nevertheless, they do display a number of interesting and important features, especially with respect to the technical interactions between different cereals.

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Reply

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Reply

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Comment*

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Comment*

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India

This article quantifies the impact of imports of cereals under Public Law 480 on the prices and domestic supply of cereals in India. An econometric model encompassing six simultaneous equations is set up. An analytical framework for measuring the impact of P.L. 480 imports on prices and domestic supply is constructed. The statistical analysis supports the belief that the importation of cereals under P.L. 480 leads to lower prices and a decline in domestic supply but that the decrease in domestic supply is less than the quantity imported. Thus, there is a net addition to the quantity available for consumption, which is a significant contribution in a shortage economy. INDIA has figured prominently in the operations of U.S. Public Law 480. Of the total market value of $9,401 million programmed under Title I for all countries during the period July 1, 1955, to December 31, 1964, $2,486 million (26 percent) was for India. Of all the cereals available for human consumption in India during the period 1957-1963, some 5 percent were from imports under P.L. 480 Title I. In an economy which is unable to meet its food needs from domestic production, this is a significant contribution. This article measures the impact of the imports of P.L. 480 cereals on the prices and the domestic supply of cereals in India. Background No attempt so far has been made to study the impact of P.L. 480 imports on Indian agriculture in a systematic and analytical way. In 1960, T. W. Schultz [9] put forth an admittedly speculative argument that the effects of P.L. 480 imports upon agriculture of the recipient country were likely to be adverse through a fall in the prices of agricultural products. The cultivators in India would be faced with a decline in the prices of farm products, and the incentive to maintain or expand agricultural production would be thwarted. Professor Schultz has recently repeated the same argu

The Supply of Cereals

THE recently published “Statistical Notes on the Cereals” (No, 5, March, 1917) issued by the International Institute of Agriculture must be regarded in the existing situation as a compilation of more than ordinary interest, representing as it does the most precise information obtainable as to the results of last season's corn harvests throughout the world. Preliminary estimates issued from time to time have pointed with lamentable uniformity to a serious shorttge of corn supplies as compared with recent years, and the final record fully bears them out. Interest centres specially in the yield of cereals available for international trade, which excludes enemy countries, territories invaded by the enemy, and countiies such as the uninvaded portions of Rumania and European Russia, export from which is prevented by the war. The total yield of wheat from all other sources shows a decline of 27.7 per cent. as compared with the excellent harvest of 1915, and 16.9 per cent. as compared with the average of the fiye seasons 1911–15. The rye crop shows corresponding deficiencies of 29 per cent. and 4.1 per cent.; barley, 9.9 per cent. and 4.1 per cent.; oats, 6.9 per cent. and 3.2 per cent.; and maize, 15.9 per cent. and 12.1 per cent. respectively. Taking wheat and rye together as the staple bread-corn crops, the total deficiency as compared with 1915–16 iS 26.3 per cent., or 16.1 per cent. below the five-year average, whilst the total of the three “fodder-corn” crops shows corresponding deficiencies of 15.5 per cent. and 8.8 per cent. respectively. Now that all corn has become bread-corn the grand total is of interest, and this shows deficiencies of 19.6 per cent. and 11.4 per cent. respectively.