Cereal Prices Research Articles

Income disparities and their impact on the level and development of food expenditures of households in Slovakia

Paper evaluates development and changes in the level of households food expenditures in Slovakia, which occurred after the accession of Slovakia to the European Union in 2004 and began to apply the rules of the Common Agricultural Policy and using of means of support. Free movement of goods, labor and capital has contributed to the increase of goods and services supply and living standards as well as to the increase in households income differentiation. Until 2012, households in the lowest income quartile possess on average with only 34.1 % per year of the revenue compared with income in the highest fourth quartile of income category. The results of the analysis show a different behavior in the food market. Most sensitive to the change in income and price levels of food expenditures for food responded in families with the lowest incomes (EI = 0.28). With the increase in prices of cereals (bread) by one percentage unit-demand declined by an average by 0.49 % (Epi = −0.49), the demand for cheese by 0.65 % (Epi = −0.654) and the demand for meat by 0.275 % (Epi = −0.275).

Food Shortage in North Korea and International Assistance

It has been a year since the demise of former North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the advent of the new regime led by Kim Jong-un. North Korea's young leader, at his age of 29, has attracted international attention due to his background and experiences, such as his European study-abroad portfolio and frequent public appearances — just some of the attributes that were sharply distinguished from that of his father's. There were rampant speculations regarding economic reforms in North Korea as the country's official media has started to release more reports on economic issues and reiterated the importance of revitalizing the economy after on March 2012 when the official mourning period for Kim Jong-il ended. However, there has been no significant progress in North Korea's economic policies during the past year with Kim Jong-un's leadership in place. The implementation of new economic management policies, known as the June 28 Measure, have not been officially announced. The main contents of this measure are said to be changes in the management system of cooperative farms, greater autonomy for state-owned enterprises, and reforms of wages and the distribution system. Although there are some rumors that reforms in the agricultural sector have been implemented in some areas in North Korea on a trial basis, up until now, there are no signs of concrete reform measures being placed. It is believed that Kim Jong-un, whose utmost goal is to consolidate his political power, must have concerned that socioeconomic disorder and subsequent weakening of political control can take place when changes in its economic system and newly implemented policies fail. For the time being, it is not likely that new reform policies starkly distinguished from the previous ones are pushed ahead in the Kim Jong-un regime due to its emphasis on the adherence to political guidelines on the accomplishment of Kim Jong-il’s previous instructions. It is estimated that North Korea's food production increased in 2012. Food shortage in North Korea has been somewhat mitigated with the increase in domestic production of staple crops. According to an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) in October 2012, food production in North Korea is estimated to reach 4.92 million tons in the 2012/13 marketing year. Harvests of staple crops, such as rice and maize, were relatively good in 2012, increasing by about 10%. However, food shortage is still a major problem in North Korea and vulnerable groups are continuously facing severe malnutrition. The FAO/WFP Mission (2012) anticipated that North Korea would lack 507,000 tons of food by fall of 2013 if there is no external assistance. North Korea's food situation has been influenced by weather conditions on the state of its crops, its commercial import capacity, the amount of foreign food assistance and the supply of fertilizer, the price of domestic cereals in farmers' markets, and international food prices (Kwon and Nam 2010). These various contributory factors reflect the weak structure of the agriculture sector and related shortcomings in the economy.

Agriculture reform and food crisis in Syria: Impacts on poverty and inequality

The paper pursues a twofold objective. From a methodological viewpoint it shows how to carry out an impacts evaluation of exogenous shocks on poverty and inequality in a context characterised by out-of-equilibrium, poorly-adjusting markets, as it is the case in many developing countries, using a social accounting matrix framework. From an empirical viewpoint it provides an assessment of how the cereal price spikes of 2007–2008 and the global recession of 2008–2009 have impacted the welfare of Syrian households and how did they compound with the on-going agricultural sector liberalisation implemented by the Government of Syria since mid 1990s. This will contribute to shed some lights on the economic background behind the spreading of unrest across the country over the last couple of years or so.The results show that liberalisation impacts are very different and largely affected by the adopted budget closure rules. While reforms aiming at reducing agricultural market distortions (such as production subsidies and price support for strategic crops) could generally have a positive effect on growth, poverty and inequality, the elimination of food security interventions (such as food stamp schemes) determines an adverse distributional impact against rural household and an increase of poverty. The recent macroeconomic shocks (food price crisis and the global recession) determined a generalised poverty increase and showed an income distribution bias against rural households.Three fundamental policy implications can be drawn by this study. First, the liberalisation of agricultural sector shows a significant growth potential and is likely to determine positive effects on poverty through a generalised increase of incomes as well as public budget savings that could be used for pursuing other policy goals. Second, in the short-run there is a structural trade-off between equity improvements and poverty alleviation: the policy options that will more likely reduce absolute poverty show undesirable distributive biases (both on overall inequality and on rural households vis-à-vis urban households). Third, the reform should include a careful design of the use of budget savings, mainly to address equity goals that are likely to be generated, in the short-run, by liberalisation.

The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression

Objective To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels.Design Systematic review with meta-regression.Data sources Online databases of...

Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia

During the global food crisis, Ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation, among the highest in Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to CPI inflation and three of its major components: cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. Our main finding is that movements in international food and goods prices, measured in domestic currency, determined the long-run evolution of domestic prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks affected food inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Monetary policy seems to have accommodated price shocks, but money supply growth affected short-run non-food price inflation. Our results suggest that when analyzing inflation in developing economies with a large food share in consumer prices, world food prices and domestic agricultural production should be considered. Omitting these factors can lead to biased results and misguided policy decisions.

Impact of Global Crisis on Food Commodities in India

During the past few years, there was a significant increase in global food prices due to several structural and cyclical changes in many factors. The increase in food prices in India was much lower as compared to sharp increase in global prices due to various measures. Cereal prices in India Increased only 23 percent as compared to global price increase of 150 percent during 2009 to 2012. However, the food prices in the last two years have been higher than those in the period mid-1990s to 2004. Presently, the inflation for food articles (more than 10%) is higher than the general inflation (below 6%). The volatility in food prices is likely to continue and would harm the poor. Even before the food crisis, the poor and vulnerable were significantly left behind. Poor people spend 60 to 70 percent of their income on food and they have little capacity to adapt as prices rise and wages may not adjust accordingly. Thus, the situation in india can still pose a threat to food security of the country.

Optimizing the number of consecutive seed harvests in red fescue (Festuca rubra L.) and perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) for yield, yield components and economic return

Crop production must continuously be adjusted according to economic return and fluctuating prices on inputs versus harvested plant products and calls for continuous revision of the crop rotation and flexible management systems. This study describes grass seed production of three different types, respectively, of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and red fescue (Festuca rubra L.) and their optimum number of growing seasons in terms of yield, selected yield components and economic gain. Three harvest years gave the maximum yield in the red fescue type with long stolons (cv. Pernille) and the highest number of fertile tillers in all three red fescue cultivars. Four harvest years gave the maximum yield for types with short stolons (cv. Suzette) and without stolons (cv. Tamara). The fifth year significantly reduced the yield compared to the highest obtained yield within each cultivar. The diploid amenity cv. Allegro and forage type cv. Borvi of perennial ryegrass can be harvested in five consecutive years without a significant yield reduction. The tetraploid type cv. Tivoli had the highest thousand seed weight and a significant yield decrease from the first to the second year of seed harvest and a continuous decline in seed yield is observed from the first to the fifth harvest year in this cultivar. Yet, when the economic incentive was calculated it was found that optimum harvest years cannot be determined by yield considerations alone. A combination of high grass seed price and low cereal price shows that red fescue can be grown up to four years and perennial ryegrass up to five years with high economic returns.

Agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles

AbstractThis article investigates agricultural price transmission during price bubbles. The empirical approach concerns the horizontal transmission of cereal prices both across different market places and across different commodities. The trade policy intervention put forward to mitigate the impact of price exuberance is considered. The analysis is performed using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data over years 2006–2010, a period of generalized turbulence of agricultural markets. Firstly, the properties of price time series are explored; then, interdependence across prices is specified and estimated by adopting appropriate cointegration techniques. Results suggest that the bubble had only a slight impact on the price spread and the temporary trade‐policy measure, when effective, has limited this impact.

Soaring world cereal prices. A boon for African farmers?

La flambee des cours mondiaux des cereales en 2007/2008 et les emeutes qui l'ont accompagnee dans plusieurs villes d'Afrique subsaharienne ont reactive les debats sur les politiques de securite alimentaire. La hausse du prix des cereales ne serait-elle pas une aubaine pour relancer la production vivriere en assurant des prix plus attractifs aux agriculteurs ? Encore fallait-il verifier si les fluctuations des cours mondiaux se transmettent aux prix sur les marches nationaux. Tel etait l'objectif d'une etude portant sur cinq pays de la region. Entre 1994 et 2009, le degre de transmission des cours mondiaux du riz sur les marches interieurs a fortement varie selon les pays : faible, voire inexistant au Mali, au Cameroun et a Madagascar ; fort au Senegal et au Niger. La flambee de 2007/2008 ne modifie pas structurellement les formes de transmission identifiees sur longue periode. Le cloisonnement des marches alimentaires entre le riz importe, le riz local et les autres produits vivriers explique cette transmission imparfaite des cours mondiaux aux marches subsahariens. Ce resultat doit etre pris en compte pour les strategies de securite alimentaire en Afrique subsaharienne.

Re‐examining green revolution diffusion and factor/input markets in Bangladesh after market liberalization

This paper re‐examines the effect of green revolution (GR) diffusion on factor/inputs demand in Bangladesh using an empirical model that allows for simultaneous determination of factors influencing adoption of GR technology at the current mature stage, as well as access to irrigation. Results reveal some alignments with conventional wisdom as well as few surprises. For example, while an increased demand for major inputs is expected, an increased demand for organic manure is an unexpected positive outcome. The GR adoption rate is significantly higher in villages with access to irrigation and fertile soils and, surprisingly, in infrastructurally underdeveloped villages. Together with other expected findings of GR technology uptake with higher cereal prices and irrigation use encouraged by access to credit, tenurial status and fertile soils, our findings suggest that investment in irrigation and soil conservation, as well as implementing measures to improve cereal prices and provide agricultural credit, could boost GR technology adoption.

The New Normal? A Tighter Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Relation and Its Implications for Food Security

The tight food markets and rising prices of 2005–2008 and today have been caused by various factors, such as rapid growth in demand for biofuels, bad weather, and increased demand for meat, dairy, livestock feed, rice and wheat due to rapid economic growth and urbanization, particularly in Asia and Africa. In the longer term, climate change and growing water scarcity along with worsening water quality will be major challenges to agricultural production and food security. This paper uses IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodity and Trade (IMPACT) to assess long-term agricultural supply and demand relations. Examining these new global food system realities through the lens of scenarios for agricultural supply and demand indicates that, if current policies and investment trends continue, real world prices of most cereals and meats are projected to increase in the future. Growth in demand for meat, milk, biofuels and growing scarcity in water supplies are projected to put pressure on agricultural prices and strain land and water resources further. Climate change will have negative impacts on agricultural production in much of the world. Rising prices and poor progress on food security are not, however, inevitable. Policy reforms and increased

Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals

National early warning systems of Sahelian countries are mainly based on biophysics models to predict agricultural production shortages and prevent food crisis. The objective of this paper is to show that cereal market prices also bring useful information on future food availability that could complete current early warning disposals. Indeed, at any point in time prices are informative not only on the state of present food availability but also on agents' expectations about future availability. The research is based on the exploitation of the statistical properties of price series. It aims at detecting movements in the prices trend signalling a coming crisis. We first identify markets playing a leading role in price formation at the national and regional level through the estimation of VAR models. The second step consists in identifying crisis periods and then the price shocks characterises during the period which precedes a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The data set encompasses 50 markets belonging to three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, over the period 1990-2008. The results show that past price shocks on a few number of leading marketplaces can help preventing coming crises.

Unlearning Food Predictability

1. Disciplinary approaches to food studiesSocial studies investigating food and eating issues date back a long time and have a specific tradition within the anthropological literature. To mention only two examples: Garrick Mallery's paper, Maimers and meals (1888), appeared in Volume 1, No. 3, of the American Anthropologist; William Robertson Smith's Lectures on the Religion of the Semites (1889) contains an important chapter on food. According to Mintz and Du Bois (2002) the study of food and eating has been important in order to improve scientific understanding of significant broad societal processes such as political-economic value-creation, symbolic value-creation, and the social construction of memory.While the anthropological literature provides valuable accounts of the human diversity when it comes to food, socio-economic studies are highlighting the selective enhancement of the efficiency and predictability dimensions of modern approaches to industrial food, its commodification and distribution: Fast-food restaurant rank very high in the dimension of predictability. In order to help ensure consistency, the fast-food restaurant offers only a limited menu. Predictable end products are made possible by the use of similar raw materials, technologies, and preparation and serving techniques. Not only the food is predictable; the physical structures, the logo, the 'ambience', and even the personnel are as (Ritzer, 2008).Food production and consumption has been affected and it has affected the globalization of the economic relations (Gallino, 2009) that took place in the past five decades, raising issues of economic, social and environmental justice: Who grows food-and how much; who eats it-and at what cost-are questions that will determine social and political relationships not only inside the boundaries of individual nations but also between countries at the international level (George, 1979: 4). Consumer choices concerning eating and food might have a tremendous impact upon local, national and international policies. Worldwide, food demand is shifting from basic commodities (i.e. cereals and rice) to products with a higher value added, (i.e. meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, fats and oils). The increase in the demand for dairy and meat is leading to a surge in the demand for and prices of cereals, as well as in the demand for land. Meat production is particularly demanding in terms of energy, cereal and water. Today, nearly half of the world's cereals are being used for animal feed. Results from the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)1 illustrate the potential beneficial worldwide effect of diets in high-income countries that would shiftaway from meat- and cerealfeed- intensive goods - thereby relieving pressures on targeted markets - but shifting toward other goods as substitutes, which introduces price pressure elsewhere. On the whole, the benefits of releasing grains from livestock production systems by reducing the demand for meat would have a much greater effect on decreasing malnutrition than increasing the consumption of healthy foods like nutrientladen pulses, fruits, and vegetables might have.Sociological studies have often included issues of food and eating within broader social frameworks although more recently scholars and international reviews have come to devote a specific focus to food and social issues. Recent examples include McMillan and Coveney (2010), and the 2010 Special Issue of the Journal of Sociology on the Sociology of Food and Eating introduced and edited by Ward, Coveney, and Henderson (2010).Ward, Coveney, and Henderson (2010) identify globalization as a factor in rising food costs and food insecurity. Growing demand fuelled by rising populations (Stoeckel, 2008) and increased consumer expectations and consumer demands (ODI, 2008); alongside diminishing food supplies attributed to poor harvests in export countries (ODI, 2008), increasing farming production costs (Stoeckel, 2008) and the use of crops to produce biofuels (Dornboech and Steenblik, 2007) have all contributed to rising food costs. …

Rice Price Formation in the Short Run and the Long Run: The Role of Market Structure in Explaining Volatility

This paper analyzes price formation on the world’s rice market using simple supply and demand models as a start, but moving to “supply of storage” models—a staple of commodity-market analysis for more than half a century—to explain hoarding behavior and its subsequent impact on prices. The supply of storage model, however, does not account adequately for the influence that “outside” speculators have on prices. This paper quantifies the impact of financial factors and actors on commodity-price formation using very short-run prices and Granger causality analysis for a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including rice. The results are highly preliminary but are also very provocative. Speculative money seems to surge in and out of commodity markets, strongly linking financial variables with commodity prices during some time periods, but these periods are often short and the relationships disappear for long periods of time. Finally, the paper addresses the long-run (since 1900) relationships among the prices of the three basic cereal staples, rice, wheat and corn (maize), which have declined more than 1 percent per year over the past century. The decline accelerated after the mid-1980s; only the recent run-up in cereal prices in 2007–08 returned them to the long-run downward trend. Despite these common features and important cross-commodity linkages, however, price formation for rice has several unique dimensions worthy of further study.

Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization are often used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in regions that are food insecure areas, are isolated from international export market price trends. Here we present country and regional staple food price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We examine the market integration of regional and country level staple food price indices for 35 countries in West, East and Southern Africa and in Central Asia and Central America. We found that cereal price indices constructed using local market prices of within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier warning of food security crises.

The Influence of the Increase in International Cereal Prices on Japanese Agriculture

The Influence of the Increase in International Cereal Prices on Japanese Agriculture

Food Aid, External Trade and Domestic Markets

In the last decade, internal conflict has greatly hindered market transactions across regions of Sudan, especially transactions between Darfur and the rest of Sudan. Food aid has helped to offset not only the absence of commercial inflows of grain, but also reductions in Darfur’s cereal production. This article explores the determinants of cereal prices in Sudan utilising a simple partial equilibrium framework for wheat and sorghum, the country’s two main food staples. We also present econometric evidence on the lack of integration of sorghum markets between Darfur and central Sudan, along with quantitative estimates of the impacts of food aid on market prices in the region. The article concludes with a discussion of national food policy and the paradox of simultaneous commercial exports and large-scale food aid imports of sorghum.

Stabilising cereal prices? Adapting the response to the market

Version française de l'articleShould cereal prices be stabilised? With the Sahel food crisis of 2005, followed by soaring prices on international markets in 2008 and 2010, this is an increasingly pressing issue in national, regional and international policy debates, which address it in a uniform manner. However, the question calls for different analyses and responses depending on whether it concerns domestic markets in developing countries that are subject to food insecurity, domestic markets in developed countries, or international markets.

Stabilising cereal prices? Adapting the response to the market

Faut-il stabiliser le prix des cereales ? Avec la crise alimentaire de 2005 au Sahel, puis la flambee des prix sur les marches internationaux en 2008 et en 2010, la question est plus que jamais posee dans les debats politiques nationaux, regionaux et internationaux. De maniere indifferenciee. Pourtant, elle appelle des analyses et des reponses differentes selon qu'il s'agit du marche interieur de pays en developpement sujets a l'insecurite alimentaire, du marche interieur de pays developpes, ou des marches internationaux.

Soaring world cereal prices. A boon for African farmers?

Version française de l'articleThe soaring world cereal prices in 2007/2008 and the subsequent riots in several sub-Saharan African cities reignited the debate on food security policy. Could rising world cereal prices actually be a blessing in terms of boosting food production by guaranteeing more attractive prices for farmers? This implies determining whether global price fluctuations are actually transmitted to national market prices. This was the objective of a study focusing on five countries in the region. Between 1994 and 2009, the degree of transmission of world rice prices to domestic markets varied considerably from one country to another: low or even inexistent in Mali, Cameroon and Madagascar; high in Senegal and Niger. The 2007/2008 price increases made no structural changes to the types of transmission identified over the long term. The segmentation of food markets between imported rice, local rice and other foodstuffs explains this imperfect transmission of global prices to sub-Saharan markets. This finding must be taken into consideration in food security strategies in sub-Saharan Africa.