Central Parity Research Articles

The price discovery in the renminbi/USD market: Two spot, two swap, and three forward FX rates

This paper employs the vector error correction model (VECM) to measure the contribution of the onshore renminbi spot foreign exchange (CNY) rate to the price discovery of the offshore one (CNH). The VECM incorporates the covered interest rate parity condition by introducing the forward swap rate. Each rate has onshore and offshore markets, and the VECM encompasses the seven variables. This rich VECM challenges the small VECM with only two CNH and CNY rates, revealing an overstatement of the CNH's contribution. Additionally, CNY and CNH are the main contributors to the price discovery of the forward exchange rates. When the central parity is set to be weaker than the previous day's closing of the CNY, the CNY is dominant over the CNH in terms of the information share in the spot FX rate. This effect is amplified after the month of sluggish Chinese exports.

A Study on the Exchange Rate Linkage between Korea and China following the Reform of the Yuan Exchange Rate System

Purpose - This study aims to conduct an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility and dynamic correlation between Korea and China based on the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Unlike other developed countries’ foreign exchange markets, the Chinese Yuan has not yet achieved complete free circulation, and China has an onshore Yuan exchange rate (CNY) and an offshore Yuan exchange rate (CNH). In this study, we investigated the dynamic correlation between Korea’s won exchange rate and China’s onshore yuan exchange rate and offshore yuan exchange rate around the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Design/Methodology – In this study, we attempted to analyze the average and the volatility spillover effect of the won exchange rate from China’s onshore and offshore yuan exchange rate before and after the 8.11 central parity exchange rate reform. In addition, the relation between the won exchange rate and on- and off-shore yuan exchange rate at various stages were analyzed through the VAR model and the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model. Findings – The results of analyzing the volatility spillovers between the KRW exchange rate and the offshore RMB exchange rate show that there are two-way volatility spillovers between the two markets, both before and after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. The dynamic correlation between the two exchange rates (CNY and KRW, CNH and KRW) is increasing over time. In addition, the two exchange rates are positively correlated with each other, implying that the volatility of the two exchange rate markets is moving in the same direction. The dynamic dependence relations between CNY and KRW become significantly higher after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. Originality/value - As a non-international currency, the won must engage in export trade and capital market transactions with other international reserve currency countries. Therefore, it is important for Korean export-import companies and investors to explore changes in the dynamic correlation between the won and the Chinese yuan through exploration.

Currency flotation and dividend policies: Evidence from China's central parity reform

AbstractExploiting the 2015 central parity reform in China, we examine whether and how currency flotation affects corporate payout policies. The reform shifted China's currency regime from a crawling peg to the US dollar to partial flotation, significantly increasing its currency risk. We find that firms with high foreign currency exposures reduced their cash dividends postreform relative to firms with low foreign currency exposures. The dividend reduction is more pronounced for firms with less financial hedging or less financial flexibility before the reform. Firms display asymmetrical responses to foreign exchange gains versus losses. Specifically, while firms cut cash dividends when experiencing foreign exchange losses, they do not increase cash dividends when obtaining foreign exchange gains. A falsification test shows no changes in firms’ stock dividends that do not involve cash flows. Overall, our study shows that currency flotation, through increasing currency risks, dampens firms’ cash dividends.

The “real” exchange rate regime in China since 2015′s exchange rate reform

Moving away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005, China has gradually enlarged the band of fluctuations of Renminbi (RMB) and implemented various reforms on its central parity to have a more flexible exchange rate regime. This paper studies the nature of the exchange rate regime in China since the exchange regime reform of August 2015. Relying on the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model, it identifies endogenously the band of inaction beyond which the People's bank of China (China's central bank) starts to intervene in the foreign exchange market to restrict further fluctuations. Based on the comparison of the estimated threshold with the official band, this paper shows that the RMB/USD exchange rate followed an intermediate regime similar to the crawling band but with only one single threshold of intervention which is much lower than the upper boundary of the announced band.

The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets

AbstractUsing the DCC‐GARCH model, this study considers distinctive features of China's foreign exchange market to investigate the impacts of RMB internationalization on exchange rates in onshore and offshore markets in different stages during 2010–2017. The results show that policies concerning RMB internationalization, such as interest rate liberalization, exchange rate liberalization, and capital market internationalization, have different impacts on the central parity rate, onshore exchange rate, and offshore exchange rate. In terms of exchange rate liberalization, as the daily trading band was gradually widened in 2012–2015, the onshore exchange rate followed the offshore exchange rate more closely. The central parity rate functioned as a managed floating role. It stabilized onshore and offshore exchange rate fluctuations, while allowing partial marketization. After the exchange rate reform on August 11, 2015, the central parity rate plays a benchmark role based on a more market‐oriented price formation mechanism. It makes the central parity rate regain pricing power in onshore and offshore markets. Further, it promotes exchange rate liberalization and RMB internationalization. Nevertheless, with the slowdown of China's economic growth and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US, the RMB is under pressure to depreciate, and its volatility increases significantly.

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Using ARMA-GARCH Model

This paper selects central parity rate of RMB against US dollar on each trading day from January 2, 1995 to December 31, 2020 as empirical research data, takes the logarithm and then differentiates the data to obtain return series for a stable RMB exchange rate against US dollar. Descriptive statistical analysis is performed on the series, and it is concluded that distribution of the serious had obvious characteristics of "leptokurtosis and heavy tails”, compared with normal distribution. Through test of stationarity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, it is confirmed that there is a phenomenon of fluctuation clustering in return series, so it is reasonable and feasible to use GARCH model to fit the return model of RMB exchange rate against US dollar. In this paper, ARMA model is established to obtain the mean equation to eliminate autocorrelation of the series. At the same time, TGARCH and EGARCH models are used to fit the asymmetric effects in return series. By comparison, it is concluded that the model with the best fitting effect is ARMA (2,1)-EGARCH (1,2) model. At the same time, it is concluded that RMB depreciation will cause a larger fluctuation in RMB exchange rate compared with RMB appreciation, which also indicates that RMB exchange rate has characteristics of volatility clustering and asymmetric effects. The feasibility of model is tested by in-sample prediction of results of the constructed EGARCH model. Finally, based on volatility of RMB exchange rate, policy recommendations such as controlling rhythm of exchange rate changes, improving RMB exchange rate system and exchange rate derivatives market are put forward.

Dynamic dependence and risk spillovers between RMB onshore spot and offshore NDF markets

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the dependence structure between the renminbi (RMB) onshore spot and offshore NDF markets using a GARCH-dynamic copula model. We document that the central parity reform in August 2015 marked a structural change in the dependence structure between the onshore spot and offshore NDF markets. Since the reform, the conditional correlation and tail dependence between the two markets have significantly increased and exhibited apparent time-varying patterns. We show that the difference between the central parity and spot rates and the degree of market segmentation between CNY and NDF markets are two crucial factors driving the time-varying CNY-NDF dependence. Furthermore, we find symmetric downside and upside risk spillovers between the two markets transmitted in both directions. The magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased since the reform. Our findings are particularly relevant for policy-making and portfolio risk management.

Does the offshore market matter to China’s exchange rate policy?

ABSTRACT The central parity rate (CPR) is a key instrument for the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to manage the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate. The current method of CPR formation rests on a gauge of the ‘demand and supply conditions’ in the foreign exchange market. But there are two markets for RMB, the onshore market for CNY and the offshore market for CNH. In this article, we study the role of the offshore market in the CPR formation mechanism and find that changes in CNH have statistically significant predictive power on CPR, especially after the ‘8.11’ reform of 2015. This suggests that PBC does consider the conditions in the offshore market as well as those in the onshore market.

The Analysis of Global RMB Exchange Rate Forecasting and Risk Early Warning Using ARIMA and CNN Model

The purposes are to predict exchange rate fluctuations more accurately and enhance Chinese enterprises’ ability to avoid exchange rate risks. Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate fluctuation’s prediction methods are studied based on data mining technology. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is introduced first using a modeling method that combines linear and nonlinear models. The linear prediction is obtained by the ARIMA model’s application in the RMB exchange rate’s dynamic fluctuation analysis. The nonlinear residual prediction is obtained by integrating the ARIMA model with the convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm. The RMB exchange rate fluctuations’ influence mechanism on China’s economic growth is explored by theoretical analysis and empirical research. The US dollar’s daily central parity rate (USD) data against the RMB from September 2015 to March 2019 are selected for model verification, obtaining the exchange rate’s logarithmic return sequence (RUSD).

Revisiting the return‐volatility relationship of exchange rates: New evidence from offshore RMB

AbstractThis study investigates the return‐volatility relationship of the offshore Chinese RMB (CNH). Based on a regime‐switching copula model, we find that the return‐volatility relationship has changed since the August 2015 reform of the central parity formation mechanism. Before the reform, implied volatility increased only in response to CNH depreciation. After the reform, both large depreciation and appreciation of CNH trigger higher implied volatility. We show that both the “fear of a crash” and interest rate differentials are important factors contributing to the return‐volatility dynamics. Our study provides empirical evidence that the 2015 reform increased the two‐way flexibility of the USD/CNH exchange rate. Specifically, after the reform, both large negative and large positive USD/CNH returns have created fear of future losses, which causes investors to bid up option prices and therefore implied volatility.

Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors

AbstractIn 2015, the People's Bank of China announced a new exchange rate policy where the RMB central parity rate is determined each morning by the previous day's closing rate, market demand and supply, and valuations of other currencies. This policy suggests an implementable investment strategy for trading the CNH. We create a forecasting model that can be used to manage the global investor's problem of mitigating the currency risk inherent in Chinese equity positions. A dynamic currency overlay strategy, where the forecasting model is used as a trading signal to take long and short positions in CNH, performs particularly well.

Structural Changes in the Renminbi Exchange Rate Mechanism

AbstractThis paper examines structural changes in China's exchange rate mechanism. For this purpose, we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate: a smoothing factor, a market factor, and a basket factor. We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005, treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks. Among other results, we find that the main impact of introducing a “counter‐cyclical factor” is to weaken the role of the basket factor. We estimate structural breaks in data, assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown, and we find that, although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms, there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China–US trade conflict in May 2019. It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.

Structural Changes in the RMB Exchange Rate Mechanism

This paper examines structural changes in the exchange rate mechanism of China. For this purpose, we propose a predictive regression model that incorporates three factors of influence on the central parity rate: a smoothing factor, a market factor, and a basket factor. We first apply the model to analyze the effects of twelve exchange rate reforms since 2005, treating these reforms as pre-determined structural breaks. Among other results, we find that the main impact of introducing “counter-cyclical factor” is to weaken the role of the basket factor. Furthermore, we estimate structural breaks in data, assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown. We find that the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms and that the “8.11” reform of 2015 is arguably the most important structural change after 2005 in the econometric sense.

Assessment on estimations of currency basket weights—With coefficient correction for common factor dominance

AbstractThis paper proposes an approach to correcting parameter misrepresentation under the dominance of a common factor, a customarily overlooked phenomenon. Meanwhile, it provides a general solution to a specific regression bias, namely coefficient correction for common factor dominance in econometrics, which is commonly encountered in the research on currency interactions and co‐movements and beyond. The RMB basket weights are then scrutinized exhaustively, going through all stages of the evolving RMB regime and reforms. Correct and sensible currency basket weights are derived accordingly. It has been found that only the introduction of the central parity regime in 2015 has changed the RMB exchange rate patterns notably. The RMB market behavior and patterns virtually did not change during the prior reforms that had widened the band of daily fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar from 0.3% through to 2%, given the band's unique link to the US dollar.

Exchange rate regimes and market integration: evidence from the dynamic relations between renminbi onshore and offshore markets

The Chinese renminbi (RMB) has been on the way of becoming a major international currency. This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate regime and policy on the integration and information flows between RMB onshore and offshore markets. We employ a long sample of daily data encompassing multiple times of RMB exchange rate regime change (peg to managed float in 2005, re-peg in 2008, re-float in 2010, and the central parity reform in 2015), and study the dynamic conditional correlations and spillovers between RMB onshore spot market and offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. It is found that the switch from exchange rate peg to managed float and a widening of the floating band strengthen cross-market correlation and information flows (especially offshore-to-onshore spillovers). A market-learning explanation is offered for the observation that the correlation collapse in the re-peg period was not as prompt as the correlation take-off in the 2005 reform period. These findings have important implications for China’s monetary and foreign exchange policies and shed light on the integration of China’s financial markets with the rest of the world.

Empirical Analysis of RMB's Central Parity Formation Mechanism: From August 2015 to November 2019

Empirical Analysis of RMB's Central Parity Formation Mechanism: From August 2015 to November 2019

Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors

Chinese currency policy has had a strong impact on the value of investors’ portfolios in recent years. On August 11, 2015, the People’s Bank of China announced a new exchange rate policy where the RMB central parity rate against the USD would be determined each morning by the previous day’s closing rate, market demand and supply, and valuations of other currencies. This new policy suggests an implementable investment strategy for trading the CNH. In this paper we create a forecasting model based on information regarding the central parity rate, implied volatilities and other control variables which correctly predicts the direction of change on about 60 percent of days. The exchange rate forecast is then used to manage the global investor’s problem of mitigating the currency risk inherent in Chinese equity positions. All currency hedging strategies are shown to add value to the equity portfolio. A dynamic currency overlay strategy, where the forecasting model is used as a trading signal to take long and short positions in CNH, performs particularly well.

News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market

This study investigates the impact of improved central parity quotations in the Chinese Renminbi on price discovery in onshore (USD/CNY) and offshore (USD/CNH) markets. Chinese news releases refer to the gross domestic product, trade balances, and foreign exchange reserves; U.S. news features information on the meetings, statements, and minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. They all have positive impacts on price discovery in the USD/CNH market. The greater contribution by the USD/CNH market to price discovery can be attributed to an improved quotation policy, which has enabled central parity to incorporate and transmit more USD/CNH information to the USD/CNY market.

A simple explanation of biased movements of renminbi exchange rate

The central parity of the renminbi is determined by the closing rate on the previous day according to the central parity formation mechanism following the August 2015 reform. This paper develops a simple model to study how this mechanism affects the currency’s exchange rate dynamics. The central parity is shown to be under monotonic decay or growth conditional on its rate relative to the expected exchange rate determined by a generic stochastic process. Such dynamics requires the central bank to engage in vigorous intra-marginal intervention to halt currency depreciation (or appreciation). Such upward (or downward) bias will disappear if a randomizing factor subject to market conditions is incorporated into the mechanism. The analysis is consistent with the observations in the renminbi foreign exchange market, and the theories and results in the previous studies on target zones.

The Long-Drawn Process of reform of the Exchange Rate Regime and the Evolution of China’s Exchange Rate Policy

ABSTRACTAn inflexible exchange rate not only brings the traditional problem of impossible trinity but also contributes to the formation of China’s irrational international balance of payments structure characterized by the so-called twin surpluses (current account and capital account surpluses). As a result, though China has some 2 trillion USD net foreign assets, it runs investment income deficits for more than a decade. Furthermore, when the RMB is under appreciation pressure, the inflexibility brings about inflows of hot money. When the RMB is under depreciation pressure, the inflexibility facilitates the unwinding of carry trade and capital flights. On the whole, China is too cautious in reforming its exchange rate regime. Instead of designing various cumbersome central parity rate-setting rules, China should make up its mind to float the RMB as soon as possible.