A Study on the Exchange Rate Linkage between Korea and China following the Reform of the Yuan Exchange Rate System

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to conduct an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility and dynamic correlation between Korea and China based on the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Unlike other developed countries’ foreign exchange markets, the Chinese Yuan has not yet achieved complete free circulation, and China has an onshore Yuan exchange rate (CNY) and an offshore Yuan exchange rate (CNH). In this study, we investigated the dynamic correlation between Korea’s won exchange rate and China’s onshore yuan exchange rate and offshore yuan exchange rate around the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Design/Methodology – In this study, we attempted to analyze the average and the volatility spillover effect of the won exchange rate from China’s onshore and offshore yuan exchange rate before and after the 8.11 central parity exchange rate reform. In addition, the relation between the won exchange rate and on- and off-shore yuan exchange rate at various stages were analyzed through the VAR model and the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model. Findings – The results of analyzing the volatility spillovers between the KRW exchange rate and the offshore RMB exchange rate show that there are two-way volatility spillovers between the two markets, both before and after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. The dynamic correlation between the two exchange rates (CNY and KRW, CNH and KRW) is increasing over time. In addition, the two exchange rates are positively correlated with each other, implying that the volatility of the two exchange rate markets is moving in the same direction. The dynamic dependence relations between CNY and KRW become significantly higher after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. Originality/value - As a non-international currency, the won must engage in export trade and capital market transactions with other international reserve currency countries. Therefore, it is important for Korean export-import companies and investors to explore changes in the dynamic correlation between the won and the Chinese yuan through exploration.