Revisiting the return‐volatility relationship of exchange rates: New evidence from offshore RMB

Abstract

AbstractThis study investigates the return‐volatility relationship of the offshore Chinese RMB (CNH). Based on a regime‐switching copula model, we find that the return‐volatility relationship has changed since the August 2015 reform of the central parity formation mechanism. Before the reform, implied volatility increased only in response to CNH depreciation. After the reform, both large depreciation and appreciation of CNH trigger higher implied volatility. We show that both the “fear of a crash” and interest rate differentials are important factors contributing to the return‐volatility dynamics. Our study provides empirical evidence that the 2015 reform increased the two‐way flexibility of the USD/CNH exchange rate. Specifically, after the reform, both large negative and large positive USD/CNH returns have created fear of future losses, which causes investors to bid up option prices and therefore implied volatility.