Central Asian Region Research Articles

The October Revolution of 2020 in Kyrgyzstan and the Security Problem in Central Asia

The subject of the article is the analysis of the causes, course and effects of the October 2020 revolution in Kyrgyzstan. Particular emphasis is placed on the consequences of this revolution, especially on the change of the system of government in Kyrgyzstan and its impact on security in the region of Central Asia. The entirety of the normative provisions of the Constitution of May 5, 2021, and in particular the regulations regarding the mutual relations between the executive and legislative powers, proves that the presidential system of government established on its basis in Kyrgyzstan differs significantly from the classical model of such a system of government. This is evidenced primarily by the right of legislative initiative granted to the President of Kyrgyzstan, the right to participate in parliamentary sessions, and the right to determine the subject of its sessions. The October Revolution did not affect the security architecture in Central Asia directly. However, the adoption of the presidential system of government in Kyrgyzstan, the difficult economic situation, as well as unresolved social problems may result in further mass social protests in this country in the future, which may have a significant impact on the relations, especially with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

On the Relationship between the Drying out of the Aral Sea and the Salinization of Irrigated Lands

In this article, it is emphasized that the drying of the Aral Sea is the main reason for geoecological problems such as salinization and desertification in the Central Asian region, especially in Uzbekistan. Suggestions and recommendations are given to reduce the negative consequences of these problems.

INFLUENCE OF THE ISLAMIC FACTOR ON TRANSFORMATION PROCESSES OF THE SOCIO-POLITICAL SYSTEM IN KAZAKHSTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA

The article examines theoretical and conceptual approaches to the study of the influence of Islam and the Islamic factor in the discourse of transformational socio-political processes in Kazakhstan and the Central Asian region. Understanding and interpreting current paradigms and trends in the development of Islam and related sociocultural, socio-political processes facilitates the orientation of our country and society in the changing realities of the world order. The development of possible mechanisms for regulating modernization processes in our country in the field of state-confessional policy has great academic and practical significance for the domestic scientific community. The article also examines differences in the interpretation of Islam among different communities in the region, as well as the impact of global trends on religious practices and political activism. Overall, the article aims to highlight the complex dynamics between Islam and socio-political life in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, focusing on the key transformational processes and challenges facing regional societies.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATION PROCESSES IN CENTRAL ASIA

The article discusses the problems of climate change, water scarcity, desertification and how these problems affect migration processes in Kazakhstan and the Central Asian region. The main objective of the study is to analyze the conceptual problems of climate migration in Central Asia, as well as to identify their key aspects and the possibility of mitigating the effects of global warming. The main objectives of the study include analyzing scientific research, legislative acts and international studies related to new aspects of migration, reviewing environmental factors of migration processes, studying the relationship between climate change and migration. The study used methods of qualitative analysis of expert opinions and methods of substantive analysis of scientific publications. The use of social forecasting methods made it possible to identify the scientific novelty that global warming is an important factor in migration processes. The results of the study allow for a better understanding of the challenges under consideration, which have a global context. But given their degree of influence in Central Asia in general and Kazakhstan in particular, global warming may have a more negative effect. The interrelation of these challenges on migration processes, security and development of Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries is considered. In addition, possible approaches to reduce the effect of global warming are analyzed, as well as the need to increase research in this direction.

TRANSPORT SYSTEMS AS ESSENTIAL PART OF GOVERNMENT POLICY

The paper discusses the significance of transport systems as a crucial compone nt of public policy in the majority of countries worldwide. Transport policy aims to achieve various objectives, including promoting economic growth, enhancing accessibility, improving safety, reducing environmental impacts, and promoting social equity. A significant aspect is the substantial funding required to construct and maintain transportation infrastructure, includin g roadways, railway tracks, airports, harbors, and publictransportation systems.Special emphasis is placed on international transport corridors such as the Trans-Caspia n International Transportation Route, which complements the Chinese Belt and Road initiative and presents new opportunities for trade between China and European nations. The paper emphasize s the importance of collaboration between different levels of government and internationa l stakeholders to address cross-border transportation challenges and harmonize regulations. The authors also discuss the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the development of regional transportation infrastructure and logistics. They highlight key issues such as outdate d infrastructure, high transportation costs, low efficiency, and the need for increased transit capacity. Additionally, they discuss other international initiatives, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation that aim to improve regional connectivity and facilitate trade.In conclusion, they emphasize the importance of strategic planning and investment in transportation systems to promote sustainable economic growth and enhance transportation links between Central Asian countries and other regions of the world.

Assessing the Impact of New Silk Road Initiatives on Kazakhstan's Business Environment

This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of four major regional economic integration initiatives along the New Silk Road in Eurasia: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), the New Silk Road (NSR), and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program. By employing an expert-based analysis method, the research assesses the initiatives from the perspective of the Kazakhstani business environment, identifying critical criteria for successful economic integration, including intra-union trade, market expansion, supply chain optimization, regulatory harmonization, and access to financing. Drawing parallels with the historical Silk Road's focus on trade and economic prosperity, this research employs an expert-based analysis method to assess these modern initiatives from the perspective of the Kazakhstani business environment. Through structured expert panel assessments and statistical analysis, the study determines which initiatives offer the most tangible benefits to businesses in Kazakhstan and the broader region. The findings indicate that the SREB initiative scored highest overall, particularly in fostering regional economic development and business growth, with a total score of 197, followed by the EAEU with 181. The findings reveal that the SREB initiative scored highest overall, followed by the EAEU, indicating their strong potential for fostering regional economic development and business growth. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and businesses navigating the complex landscape of Eurasian economic integration. It offers a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of new Silk Road initiatives in promoting regional prosperity and cooperation, with particular relevance to Kazakhstan's position in Central Asia.

Examination of Turkish Culture and Customs before Islam: Outcomes and Implications

This article first investigates the activities, life, and significant role of Turkish peoples in the history of Central Asia and the Middle East before the arrival of Islam. Initially, Turks were introduced as one of the major influential groups in the Central Asian region, living a nomadic and pastoral lifestyle in the plain areas. The article secondly, explores various pre-Islamic religious beliefs and practices of the Turks, including Tengri or Tengrism (worship of natural forces), Buddhism, Manichaeism, Shamanism, and Zoroastrianism. In addition, the paper describes the Turks' strategic location with the key trade routes, Turkish customs such as the celebration of Nowruz, the nomadic lifestyle, and the wide range of handicrafts including metalwork, pottery, and weaving. The paper also slightly covers the different ethnic and historical origins of Turkish people, such as the Oghuz, Seljuks, Kipchaks, and Ottomans. Eventually, the article explains the tribal social structure of the Turks, the role of khans and traditional leaders in their societies, and the dominant feudal system before Islam.

Socio-political factors in the emergence of border armed conflicts in Central Asia

This article examines the socio-political causes of border disputes and armed conflicts between states in Central Asia. Socio-political causes of border disputes in Central Asia encompass ethnic tensions, resource allocation conflicts, geopolitical influences, weak governance, cross-border community ties, and strategic national security interests. The article assesses the importance of Central Asia in the world political system and describes interactions between the states of the Central Asian region in the context of the settlement of territorial disputes at the present stage.

A hierarchical Bayesian regression framework to analyze climate data from Central Asia region

A hierarchical Bayesian regression framework to analyze climate data from Central Asia region

Интересы Саудовской Аравии в Центральной Азии в контексте внутренних и внешних реалий

The article analyzes the interests of Saudi Arabia in the Central Asian region taking into account the internal modernization processes in the Kingdom and in the context of global geopolitical turbulence. It is proved that at the present stage Saudi Arabia makes a lot of efforts to gain a foothold in Central Asia as an influential player using its religious authority along with financial and economic instruments of influence. The emphasis is placed on the fact that with the coming to power of the young reformer King Mohammed bin Salman Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy in the Central Asian direction changed from religious identity to a pragmatic approach to interaction with the countries of the region. In this context, the Kingdom positions itself as an attractive economic and investment partner. It is emphasized that the main ideological competitor of Saudi Arabia in Central Asia is Iran whose regional activity alarms the Saudis and encourages the Kingdom’s leadership to develop measures to contain it. It is concluded that Saudi Arabia actively joined the geopolitical processes in Central Asia symbolizing a new stage of the “Big Game” and confidently tries to integrate into regional energy and transport and communication projects through its generous investment injections.

TURKEY AS A CONDUCTOR OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA

The study examines the historical features of Turkey’s existence within the framework of the manifestation of national and international interests in the Central Asian region. The relevance is due to the state’s attention to cooperation with other neighboring territories, within the framework of ensuring cultural, historical, religious, and political unity. As a result of the study, aspects of the significance of the models of contact between the policies and interests of Turkey and the Central Asian states were reflected. The main guidelines for ensuring the stability of the region and the mutual interest of all countries in confronting the challenges of our time are highlighted. The author’s conclusions concerning the maintenance and further regionalization of political, international, and international relations of all players in this territory are presented.

Do Global Excellence Initiatives Lead to an Increase in Research Productivity: The Case of Kazakhstan’s World-Class University

Global excellence initiatives have been widely implemented across various regions to elevate the quality and standing of higher education institutions. The establishment of world-class universities have been one of the most frequent approaches within the global excellence initiatives. A notable example of the successful establishment of a novel world-class university is Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, which is expected to transform Kazakhstani society by training high-qualified cadre, stimulating research and innovative activity in the country, and serving the larger society in terms of intellectual leadership and global citizenship initiatives. Despite the great promise, the university has been greatly scrutinized for the financial burden associated with its creation and maintenance. The public attention, however, has not resulted in a sufficient number of studies evaluating the various impacts of the university on Kazakhstani society and the Central Asian region at large. This study attempts to fill the gap by analyzing bibliometric data from the Web of Science to estimate the effect of the creation of Nazarbayev University on research productivity measures in Kazakhstan. More specifically, interrupted time series is applied to the data panel from 2000 to 2010 to determine whether trends in research productivity measured in terms of the number of publications, number of citations, and the size of the scholarly community (as a proxy for research capacity strengthening effect) have been affected by the establishment of the world-class university in the country. The study fills the existing gap in prior research on global academic excellence initiatives and world-class universities by suggesting quantitative insights on the research productivity effects of the initiatives.

Transboundary Water Management in Central Asia and the Iberian Peninsula: Path Dependence Approach

This article examines the historical background and the state of the art of transboundary water management in the Central Asian region, which includes the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, on one hand, and the Iberian Peninsula, which consists of the Kingdom of Spain and the Republic of Portugal, on the other hand. These distances from each other regions are studied for the reason that both of them are located in arid landscapes and further climate change is posing grave challenges to transboundary water security. By highlighting the differences and similarities in the water management practices of Central Asia and the Iberian Peninsula, this article employs a path-dependence approach to shed light on new perspectives on good water management. As a result of identified opportunities, the Central Asian states could enhance their policy in the water management system and adopt new measures based on positive foreign experience.

Design and implementation of a Type-2 hybrid, prospective randomized trial of opioid agonist therapies integration into primary care clinics in Ukraine

IntroductionUkraine has high HIV prevalence, concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWID), mostly of opioids. Maintenance on opioid agonist therapies (OAT) is the most effective evidence-based treatment for opioid use disorder. As PWID experience high morbidity and mortality from preventable and treatable non-communicable diseases, international agencies recommend integrating OAT into primary care centers (PCC). MethodsA randomized, type-2 hybrid implementation trial was carried out to compare outcomes of OAT integration in PCC to OAT delivery at specialty treatment centers (STC) – standard-of-care. Tele-education supporting PCC providers in managing OAT, HIV, tuberculosis and non-communicable diseases along with pay-for-performance incentives were used to facilitate implementation. Consenting patients underwent 1:2 randomization to either STC or PCC. Quality health indicators (QHIs), a composite percentage of recommended primary and specialty services accessed by patients (blood/urine tests, cancer screenings, etc.), were defined as efficacy outcomes and were assessed by participant self-report at baseline and every 6 months over 24 months and electronic chart reviews after the completion of the follow-up. The primary outcome is defined as the difference in composite QHI scores at 24 months, in which a repeated measures likelihood-based mixed model with missing at random assumptions will be used. Providers at PCC completed surveys at baseline, 12 and 24 months to assess implementation outcomes including changes in stigma and attitudes towards OAT and PWID. Preliminary resultsAmong the 1459 participants allocated to STC (N = 509) or PCC (N = 950), there were no differences in clinical and demographic characteristics. Self-reported prevalences were available for HIV (42 %), HCV (57 %), and prior tuberculosis (17 %). Study retention at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months was as 91 %, 85 %, 80 %, and 74 %, respectively. ConclusionPWID have a high prevalence of medical comorbidities and integrating OAT into primary care settings has the potential to improve the health of PWID. Findings from this study can help guide implementation of integrated care in Ukraine and throughout similar low-resource, high-burden countries in the Eastern European and Central Asian region.

SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION OF RUSSIA AND TRANSFORMATION OF «HISTORICAL POLITICS» IN THE CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRIES. PART I

The article examines the main aspects of the historical policy of the Central Asian states, observed recently. After the Western proxy war against Russia entered an active phase on the territory of Ukraine, the Central Asian republics have seen an intensification of social discussions around various topics of historical discourse. The topic of memory policy as an integral part of the country’s ideological policy on the part of the authorities of the states in the region is in a difficult state due to a number of internal and external elements of influence on this area. This text is also an attempt to consider the degree of influence of processes that can be called “memory wars” on the formation in the republics of the Central Asian region of new ideological foundations for the existence of political systems, social well-being and foreign policy positioning of the countries of Central Eurasia.

Optimising HIV spending in 12 eastern European and central Asian countries: a modelling study

The eastern European and central Asian (EECA) region has the fastest growing HIV epidemic globally. We aimed to identify how HIV resources could be allocated for maximum health impact. Between Aug 1 and Dec 23, 2022, allocative efficiency analyses were undertaken for 12 countries in the EECA region (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) using HIV epidemic models developed with Optima HIV. Country models were calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and programmatic data and validated by national teams. Three scenarios were projected from 2023 to 2030: status quo (continued 2021 spending on HIV programmes); optimised allocation of different spending envelopes to minimise HIV infections and deaths; and achieving 95-95-95 UNAIDS targets by 2030. Aggregated across the 12 models, HIV infections attributable to sexual transmission were estimated to surpass those attributable to transmission through injecting drugs in 2018, with male-to-male sexual transmission accounting for a continuously increasing share. In the status quo scenario, there were an estimated 111 520 (95% CI 28 960-208 270) new HIV infections and 34 530 (17 280-57 410) HIV-related deaths between 2023 and 2030. Aggregated optimisation results suggest that 35 860 (32%) of 111 520 new HIV infections and 9170 (27%) of 34 530 HIV-related deaths could be averted from 2023 to 2030 compared with the status quo, by prioritising antiretroviral therapy and targeted key population programmes. For ten countries, achieving 95% diagnosis was projected to not be possible with the current budget envelope, and for seven countries, this target could require more than three times the current spending. Compared with the status quo, achieving 95-95-95, or as close as possible, could avert 70 880 (64%) of 111 520 new HIV infections and 18 890 (55%) of 34 530 HIV-related deaths from 2023 to 2030. Targeted key population programmes should remain high priorities in the EECA region. Achieving 95-95-95 will require more emphasis on implementing appropriate modes of service delivery that reduce the gap in diagnosis and treatment coverage for people living with HIV. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. For the Russian translation of the summary see Supplementary Materials section.

Monitoring of Glacier Area Changes in the Ili River Basin during 1992–2020 Based on Google Earth Engine

The Ili River Basin, a crucial transboundary river in the arid region of Central Asia, plays a significant role in the region’s ecology and water resources. However, current methods for monitoring glacier area changes in this region face challenges in automation and accuracy due to the complex terrain and climatic conditions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform for monitoring glacier area changes in the Ili River Basin from 1992 to 2020, with a focus on improving data accuracy and processing efficiency. Utilizing the Landsat data series, we employed the random forest (RF) classification algorithm within the GEE platform to extract glacier areas, optimizing a multidimensional feature set using the Jeffries–Matusita (JM) distance method, and applied visual interpretation for data refinement. Our results demonstrated that the GEE platform, combined with the RF algorithm, provided high accuracy in glacier monitoring, achieving an overall accuracy of 89% and a kappa coefficient of 0.85. During the study period, the glacier area in the Ili River Basin decreased by 184.76 km2, with an average annual retreat rate of 6.84 km2, most notably between 3800 and 4400 m in elevation. The analysis revealed that temperature changes had a more pronounced impact on glacier dynamics than precipitation. This approach significantly enhances image utilization efficiency and data processing speed, offering a reliable tool for monitoring glacier dynamics. Future research should focus on integrating additional environmental variables and extending the temporal scope to further refine glacier dynamics modeling and predictions.

Muslims of Central Asia in Siberia in the Context of State‑Confessional Policy in the second half of the 19th – early 20th centuries

The Muslim population of Siberia represented an ethnically heterogeneous community, which included Tatars, as well as immigrants from Central and Central Asia, the Caucasus and other regions. Such polyethnicity and proximity to the Asian region, as one of the centers of Muslim culture, contributed to building contacts between Muslims of Siberia and Central Asia. Expansion of the territorial borders of the Russian Empire in the second half of the 19th century. and the government’s special interest in Central Asia has influenced the development of relations between the Muslim population of the two neighboring regions. The purpose of this study was to identify the main areas of interaction between the Muslim population of Siberia and Central Asia in the second half of the 19th – early 20th century, as well as to estimate the role of the state in regulating this process. Based on archival material, the author found that one of the areas of interaction of the Muslim population was organizing spiritual life. Despite the fact that the government, in an effort to extend its influence to the Asian region, provided support to the Muslim population in the second half of the 19th century, the same building codes were applied to the construction of religious buildings for Bukharans, as for all other Muslims. The closest contacts between the Muslims of Siberia and the Bukharians were built within the framework of pilgrimage trips, since often the way to Mecca for them lay through the territories of Central Asia. In addition, there were holy places in the region, which the Muslims of Siberia aspired to. This fact was of particular concern to the Government. The reforms initiated in the country aimed at limitation of the rights of the Muslim population have reduced the migration flow from the Asian region to Siberia. The government paid special attention to the missionary activities of the Russian Orthodox Church as a tool for involving Muslims of Siberia and Central Asia in the socio-cultural space of the empire.

Discussion of Projects for the Development of the Amudarya Flotilla by the Russian Government at the Turn of the 19th–20th centuries

The article examines the approaches of government departments regarding the development of private shipping on the Amu Darya, emphasizing the importance of the Amu Darya waterway in the context of the development of the Central Asian regional transit potential at the turn of the 19th–20th centuries. The work also analyzes the financial indicators of this infrastructure project, its impact on strengthening the position of the Russian Empire on the territory of the southern Central Asian frontier. The author noted key role of the Military Department in the discussion and implementation of the Amudarya flotilla project, the contradictory approaches of government structures regarding private shipping projects, which ultimately led to the lack of a decision on this issue. The author concluded that, during the discussion of this water transport project, due to the uncertainty of many of its aspects and the unsettled financial issues the model of attracting private investors to its implementation was not accepted by the state. At the same time, due to geostrategic and economic reasons, the Amudarya flotilla remained important for the Military Department even in a situation of increasing budgetary unprofitability of this project. The main provisions and conclusions of the work may be of interest to historians specializing in economic history and orientalists studying the region of Central Asia and the Middle East.

Key Components of Energy Cooperation Based on the Game Analysis Between China and the Central Asian Region

Key Components of Energy Cooperation Based on the Game Analysis Between China and the Central Asian Region