Solving the mystery of discrepancies and double counting in air cargo through demand and supply big data analysis

Abstract

This paper estimates and analyses the air cargo demand and supply imbalances between large geographical regions based on newly collected demand and supply data. Due to the need for more data for academics and the industry, and the lesser research interest compared to its passenger counterpart, limited empirical research on air cargo market dynamics has been conducted. Live flight and aircraft data were collected for five consecutive years to reconstruct the air cargo network and capacity. Air cargo sales tonnes data were collected and introduced as these data eliminate double counting of transfer route volumes. Both datasets were used and compared to analyse the air cargo trade imbalances. The major findings indicate an imbalance in demand on most of the 110 studied region pair combinations. The supply data indicate a high imbalance for freighter capacity, a relatively smaller imbalance for integrator capacity and a limited imbalance for the wide-body belly capacity. The data indicate that the Middle East, Northeast Asia, Russia, Central Asia, and Central America regions are all transfer or in-transit regions where a large amount of cargo passes through. However, limited cargo volumes originate or find their final destination here. Although the general assumption indicates that air cargo supply follows air cargo demand, imbalances between demand and supply in opposing directions were found for several region pairs. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is one of the first academic sources to introduce data analysis based on sales tonnes. This research assists academics and the industry in getting a better understanding of the current air cargo market dynamics. It also provides a base to enhance future air cargo market research, analysis and forecasting.