Census Research Articles

Information or normative impacts? Influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms of fertility intentions among first-time married young adults based on the TPB-SIT model

ABSTRACT The data from the Seventh Population Census (7th Population Census) indicate that China is currently confronted with significant demographic challenges, particularly those arising from low fertility rates. Due to the complexity of factors affecting fertility decisions, which are typically characterized under the concept of “perceived behavioral control,” it is challenging to investigate the multifaceted factors that influence fertility decisions. To conduct a broad analysis of the factors that shape fertility decisions among young adults in their first marriage, a TPB-SIT model is constructed from a policy-oriented perspective, which integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the Socioeconomic Influences Theory (SIT). By focusing on targeted policy tools, the effectiveness and specificity of policy-oriented measures were examined quantitatively. The analysis of the TPB-SIT model using CFPS data underscores the regulatory function of policy tools and the significance of traditional values. Based on these findings, targeted suggestions are proposed to effectively enhance fertility rates.

A REVIEW OF CITIES HIERARCHY IN ALGERIA USING THE RANK-SIZE RULE

Algeria's economic and social changes in recent decades have resulted in major shifts in the geographic distribution of its people. The phenomenon of urbanization in Algeria is relatively recent and is characterized by its very rapid growth and deep disparities in its spatial arrangement. Algeria, has an ancient urban tradition and is experiencing an accelerated urbanization process, with a scale unsurpassed for several decades. The purpose of this article is to investigate urban expansion and the phenomenon of urbanization in Algeria. Between 1954 and 2008, two processes occurred: the extension of existing urban districts and the urbanization process. This was an era of tremendous economic, social, and political changes in Algerian society. Our study was primarily based on the Algerian General Census of Population and Housing (ONS, 2008) and the use of the city-size criterion (city range-size distribution) in accordance with Zipf's hierarchical model. In this study, we examine urban growth and the phenomena of urbanization, which is caused by the development of the strata of existing urban centers or by the transition from rural to urban between 1962 and 2008, a period of major economic, social, and political change.

Fertility Rate In Uzbekistan (1890-1990): Demographic Analysis of Gender Equality and Development (SDG 5)

Objective: This study aims to analyze the trends in birth rates in Uzbekistan from 1890 to 1990, identifying key factors influencing these trends and examining their demographic implications in relation to SDG 5: Gender Equality. Theoretical Framework: Grounded in demographic transition theory, this research explores how birth rates fluctuate due to social, economic, and historical changes, with a particular focus on gender and age structure, and the impact of women’s education and employment on fertility rates, aligning with SDG 5. Method: The study employs a historical analysis of birth rates in Uzbekistan over a century. It examines data from population censuses and assesses changes in demographic processes during periods of civil war, World War II, and the post-war years. Findings: The results indicate that significant shifts in Uzbekistan's birth rates are closely tied to historical events, such as wars, government policies, and economic transitions. Improvements in women’s education and employment are shown to have influenced fertility rates, in line with the goals of SDG 5. Research Implications: This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, contributing to demographic research and supporting strategies for gender equality in Uzbekistan.

Residential concentration of the new elite class between 2010 and 2020 in South Korea

Recently, a new elite class, often called the upper-middle class, has emerged as a distinct social group. This study aims to identify the spatial distribution of this new elite class in South Korea in the years 2010 and 2020. Using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we defined new elites as those in 3-digit managerial and professional occupations with high wages (top 50%) and low property levels (bottom 50%). We utilized the Population and Housing Census to identify the spatial distribution of elite roles at the district level and visualized them using cartograms. We identified consistent elite concentrations in Seoul and southern Gyeonggi, but their presence was restricted to specific districts by 2020. Sejong emerged as an administrative hub attracting new elites. Moreover, Busan and Ulsan experienced increasing elite populations, whereas Gwangju and Daegu witnessed a decline. These findings highlight the growing spatial polarization of the new elite class. Our study provides a basis for policies aimed at improving educational opportunities and promoting social mobility.

Does Social Media Level the Political Field or Reinforce Existing Inequalities? Cartographies of the 2022 Brazilian Election

ABSTRACT If representation furnishes the stage where political struggles play out, this stage can be alarmingly small. In this study, we examine whether social media campaigns in the 2022 Brazil elections are inclusive. Based on the triangulation of data provided by Brazil’s Electoral Supreme Court, national census, and approximately 80,000 Facebook posts and ads, our findings reveal that candidates who lacked resources were either absent from this platform or received significantly less engagement. Those who already belonged to Brazil’s political class and invested more on content promotion online were more successful in boosting their social media metrics. We also find that campaigns were highly concentrated on populous and rich municipalities, thereby neglecting hundreds of cities in these communication efforts. Overall, our results suggest that social media will reproduce, rather than subvert, existing forms of inequality and exclusion in Brazilian representative politics.

Data resource profile: the disability statistics questionnaire review database (DS-QR Database): a database of population censuses and household surveys with internationally comparable disability questions

Data resource profile: the disability statistics questionnaire review database (DS-QR Database): a database of population censuses and household surveys with internationally comparable disability questions

The mental health care system for children and adolescents in Greece: a review and structure assessment.

The mental health system in Greece faces challenges to complete its transition to a community-oriented model, having significant concerns for child and adolescent care due to lower coverage and service gaps. This component of the mental health system has not been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a review of the mental health care system for children and adolescents in Greece. For a field assessment, we directly collected data from mental health services to map availability and distribution. We analyzed the needs of human resources using professional register data and the national census. The National Health Care Service (ESY, Εθνικό Σύστημα Υγείας) is the public health system in Greece, characterized by public governance but significant private participation. Although ESY aims for universal care, gaps in population coverage and high user fees create barriers to access. Embedded within ESY, the mental health system is shifting towards a community-oriented structure since the psychiatric reform. For children and adolescents, there is a developing framework for regionalization and community services, including day centers, inpatient facilities, outpatient departments, and school-based psychoeducational facilities. However, services lack coordination in a stepped care model. Patient pathways are not established and primary care rarely involves child mental health, leading to direct access to specialists. Services operate in isolation due to the absence of online registers. There is no systematic performance monitoring, yet some assessments indicate that professional practices may lack evidence-based guidelines. Our mapping highlighted a scarcity of public structures, with an unbalanced regional distribution and many underserved areas. Child and adolescent psychiatrists are predominantly affiliated with the private sector, leading to professional gaps in the public system. Our assessment identifies an established framework for a community-oriented, universally accessible mental health system, yet several barriers impede its full realization. These include an inconsistent primary healthcare system, a shortage of specialists in the public sector, imbalanced service distribution, lack of coordination among providers, underfunding, and absence of quality monitoring. We propose interventions to promote child and adolescent mental health in primary care, coordinate patient pathways, establish standards of care, and monitor performance.

Family Structure as a Result of Marital, Reproductive, and Self-Preservation Behavior of the Population in Russia

This article analyzes data from the All-Russian population censuses of 2002, 2010, and 2020. The author compares the proportion of families with children under the age of 18 that lack one parent (either father or mother) to the proportion of single spouses among all married individuals. In many cases, the absence of one parent is not due to relationship breakdowns, but rather the temporary migration of one spouse for work. It should not be assumed that such families are without a parent altogether. The author concludes that census data may exaggerate the number of families without one parent, thereby creating the illusion of a growing trend, especially in Moscow. However, even when adjusted for this overstatement, one in five families – both nationwide and in the capital – still lacks one parent. This situation is most common in families with a single child. In Russian society, childlessness is considered a deviation from the social norm. Although this norm has become less rigid in recent years, almost all families still have at least one child, even in cases of marital discord. Subsequently, many of these families eventually break up. However, once a child is born, further births typically occur only in the absence of serious marital conflict. Having a second child significantly reduces the likelihood of family breakdown, but the birth of a third or subsequent child has little additional effect on this risk. The instability of marriages and the social acceptability of divorce in Russian society contribute to lower fertility rates. The majority of families have only one or two children, a family structure that does not ensure full generational replacement and is therefore demographically unfavorable. To halt depopulation, Russia’s demographic policy should not only encourage childbirth within existing families but also promote legal marriage and the creation of new families, while also addressing the high divorce rate.

Уровень и темпы старения населения северных регионов России по новому пенсионному возрасту

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of demographic ageing in the northern regions of Russia in accordance with the new economic threshold of old age. The relevance of the research is conditioned by the gradual increase of the retirement age in Russia and preservation of the favorable retirement age in the North. The information base is the results of the population censuses and the official data of Rosstat. The dynamic and comparative statistical analysis and demographic research methods are used. Regularities of ageing of the Russian population by new retirement age in different inter-census periods are revealed. The period of 19591970 is characterized by “ageing from below” due to the transition to limited fertility, and “ageing from above” under conditions of increasing life expectancy of the population. The periods of 19701979 and 19892002 are characterized by “ageing from below”. Within the periods of 19791989 and 20022010, there was a decrease in the level of ageing of the population in Russia. The last intercensal period of 20102021 is the only one for which the definition of “ageing from above” is suitable. By 1989, the North zone had a noticeably younger age structure of the population than in the country as a whole. The migration outflow that began in the late 1980s caused the increased rates of demographic ageing of the Northern regions, which also continued in 20022010. As a result, in Karelia and the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the share of the population above the new retirement age in 2021 already noticeably exceeds the average Russian level, while in the Sakhalin Oblast, the Komi Republic and the Murmansk Oblast, it is close to the national level.

Spatial patterns of colorectal cancer survival rates in Malaysia, 2013-2018.

Large geographical variations in colorectal cancer (CRC) survival rates have been reported across regions. Poorer survival rates were mainly found in socioeconomically deprived areas, highly dense areas, and areas lacking healthcare accessibility. The objective of this study was to identify, compare, and contrast the spatial patterns of 5-year CRC-specific survival rates and identify high-priority areas by districts in Malaysia. This retrospective cohort study utilized secondary data from the National Cancer Registry. CRC patients (ICD10 C18-21) diagnosed between 2013 and 2018 were selected. Patient addresses were geocoded into districts and states via geospatial data from the National Geospatial Centre, whereas district population density data were gathered from the Population Census of Malaysia. Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis and log-rank test were conducted to determine and compare the 5-year CRC-specific survival rates, and the spatial distribution of CRC survival by district was determined via ArcGIS software. A total of 18,513 CRC patients were registered from 143 districts, with 10,819 deaths occurring during follow-up. The national 5-year CRC-specific survival rate was 42%, with median survival time of 36months (95% CI: 34.46, 37.54). The eastern region (Kelantan, Terengganu, and Pahang) had the lowest survival (38.0%). Among the 143 districts, eighty-one (56.6%) reported survival rates below the national average while thirty-six (25.2%) were identified as high-priority districts. The differences in CRC survival rates were evident according to geographical location. Area-based targeted interventions to improve CRC detection, management, and access to healthcare are imperative to address cancer survival disparities and help effectively allocate resources.

National census of UK endoscopy services in 2023

BackgroundThe Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) conducts a biennial census of UK endoscopy services. The 2023 census aimed to assess the current status of endoscopy services and compare...

Population censuses and identity politics in the Republic of Croatia

ABSTRACT This article explores the interrelation between the construction of ethnonational nomenclatures in population censuses and identity politics in the construction and representation of the ‘nation’ through the lens of ‘statistical objectivity’. Population census in the context of national identification and nation-building can be seen as a discursive practice. Through its performative effect, it objectifies the ethnonational nomenclature of the census and differentiating the social body into different identity categories through the effect of numbers, producing seemingly homogeneous ethnicised collectives in the public space. The politicization of the population census process is investigated by analysing the ambivalences in the individual-collective relations during the objectification of subjective categories of belonging, as well as by analysing the conceptualization and operationalization of these categories. The categories used in censuses and the methods employed in population censuses conducted after Croatia’s independence in 2001, 2011, and 2021 are analysed and compared.

Development of a Natech Social Vulnerability Index: A Comprehensive Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment for a Case Study in Colombia

Natech refers to complex scenarios where secondary technological accidents are triggered by natural disasters, having the potential to cause severe societal loss, especially in developing countries such as Colombia, potentially due to its vulnerable social system (Ran, MacGillivray, Gong, & Hales, 2020) (Porto & Freitas, 2003). However, one major identified research gap is the lack of a specific approach to assess the Natech social vulnerabilities. A popular vulnerability assessment tool: social vulnerability index, widely used for natural and industrial hazards, shows promising usability for Natech vulnerability assessment. The current study has proposed a novel methodology to assess Natech social vulnerability by establishing a Natech social vulnerability index based on identification of the Natech scenarios and investigation of multi-hazard intercorrelations. To validate the introduced methodology, the author utilized rainfall-induced, landslide-triggered chemical Natech incidents in Colombia as a representative case. The study embarked on identifying distinct hazards present in varying Natech situations to determine which social elements amplify vulnerability. Subsequently, composite indicators, or social vulnerability indices, were formulated to quantitatively amalgamate these pinpointed social elements. These were mapped within diverse vulnerability conceptual paradigms and then refined and scrutinized using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The outcomes, portrayed via a Geological Information System (GIS), predominantly resonate with preceding studies. Nonetheless, certain fit index values signal potential ambiguities in model alignment. The paper concludes into the inherent challenges and constraints of the devised methodology. Grounded on these analyses, policy recommendations tailored for the Colombian government’s vulnerability assessment have been proposed. These include advisories on refining the national census, databanks, and Natech reports. Additionally, pivotal research directions have been highlighted to address and mitigate the acknowledged research shortfalls in impending studies. In summary, this research, encompassing its innovative methodology, findings, and advisories, serves as a pivotal reference for succeeding investigations on social vulnerability assessments related to Natech and other multi-hazard events.

Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) Disparities in Interwar and Restored Independent Lithuania: A Long-Term Cross-Time Comparison

We provide a pioneering estimation of the regional Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) of the interwar Republic of Lithuania in 1923. This is the only year when a census of the interwar population was conducted, providing data necessary for the application of the Geary-Stark method of indirect estimation of regional output. We also measure productivity disparities across the regions in 1923 and 2001–2020 by Coefficient of Variation (CV), Mean Logarithmic Deviation (MLD), Gini and Theil indexes, to find out how much they have changed during the last hundred years. The main findings are that areas enclosed within the limits of contemporary counties (NUTS3 regions) ranked in this order in 1923 (by rGDP per capita, from richest to poorest): (1) Klaipėda; (2) Šiauliai; (3) Kaunas; (4) Panevėžys; (5) Marijampolė; (6) Telšiai; (7) Alytus; (8) Tauragė; (9) Utena. Overall levels of economic disparity in contemporary Lithuania are significantly higher than in Lithuania within its 1923 borders. However, in the contemporary NUTS2 Central and Western region, which corresponds territorially rather closely to that of the Republic of Lithuania in 1923–1938, they have remained at the same level as in 1923. In this area, Kaunas has taken first place from Klaipėda (but only since 2017), while Šiauliai, Marijampolė and Tauragė have relatively declined.

Сеть сельских поселений на территории современной Тюменской области в 1930-1950-е гг.: численность, величина, типическая структура

The purpose of the study is a specific historical characteristic of the development of a network of rural settlements in the territory of the modern Tyumen region in the 1930s and 1950s, which became the period of first building the foundation of socialism in the USSR on the basis of industrialization and collectivization, then the forced mobilization of the economy in the conditions of the Great Patriotic War and the subsequent restoration of the destroyed economy and the transition to peaceful development based on the Stalinist model of the economy. The article traces the dynamics of the number of rural settlements, their population, determines changes in the typical structure of the network of rural settlements, examines the impact of urbanization processes in the region on its condition. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that for the first time, based on data from local government bodies of national economic accounting for 1936, as well as materials from the All-Union population censuses of 1939 and 1959, data on the number of rural settlements of various types and their size are presented. As a result of the study, it was found that during the 1930s and 1950s in the territory of the modern Tyumen region there was a decrease in the number of rural settlement networks, a complication of its typical structure, an expansion of the production function of villages while reducing their average population (from 267 people in 1939 to 233 people in 1959).

Mapping the spatial patterns of ethnic segregation and its implications to urban policy in Nairobi city

In modern times, cities around the world have grappled with the challenges of racial and ethnic segregation. In Nairobi city, with its diverse ethnic makeup, there is widening inequalities and emerging patterns of ethnic segregation, where the five main ethnic groups - Kamba, Luo, Kikuyu, Luhyia, and Kisii - experience varying levels of spatial concentration. This study analysed the spatial patterns of ethnic segregation in Nairobi, using geocoded questionnaire data from the 2019 Kenya population and housing census data. We used the Index of Dissimilarity in STATA software and Geo-segregation Analyzer and Anselin’s Local Moran I method in GIS to map ethnic segregation patterns. Our findings uncovered a striking socio-spatial divide based on ethnicity. Anselin Local Moran’s I indicators further pinpointed areas with the highest levels of segregation and spatial clustering of specific ethnic groups. These findings offer crucial insights for urban planners and policymakers. By pinpointing areas experiencing the most severe spatial segregation, our research could inform spatially targeted interventions and resource allocation. This could inform policies that foster inclusivity, reduce spatial inequalities, and build a more equitable and socially cohesive city.

Cultural Ties of the Croatian and Slovene Population in the Wider Area of Čabar: A Historical Overview in Contemporary Perspective

Abstract The paper discusses the impact of recent socio-economic and geopolitical changes on cultural ties and ethnic identity formation in the wider area of Čabar, Croatia. It emphasises the importance of understanding the historical context of cross-border relations in this geographically peripheral border region. To assess the specific position of relative isolation, a robust interdis- ciplinary methodological approach was used, combining the analysis of historical documents, registry books, and population censuses with qualitative methodology like in-depth semistructured interviews with local residents. To assess the specific local interrelations, the patterns of population migration and cross-border marriages (presented in the appendix) were reconstructed and exa-mined. Changes that occurred after the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the establishment of new independent states shed new light on how the local populace reproduced their identity.

A Census of Dwarf Galaxy Satellites around LMC-mass Galaxy NGC 2403* * This research is based on data collected at the Subaru Telescope, which is operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan.

We present the first comprehensive census of the satellite population around a Large Magellanic Cloud stellar-mass galaxy, as part of the Magellanic Analog Dwarf Companions and Stellar Halos (MADCASH) survey. We have surveyed NGC 2403 (D = 3.0 Mpc) with the Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam imager out to a projected radius of 90 kpc (with partial coverage extending out to ∼110 kpc, or ∼80% of the virial radius of NGC 2403), resolving stars in the uppermost ∼2.5 mag of its red giant branch. By looking for stellar overdensities in the red giant branch spatial density map, we identify 149 satellite candidates, of which only the previously discovered MADCASH J074238+65201-dw is a bona fide dwarf, together with the more massive and disrupting satellite DDO 44. We carefully assess the completeness of our search via injection of artificial dwarf galaxies into the images, finding that we are reliably sensitive to candidates down to M V ∼ −7.5 mag (and somewhat sensitive to even fainter satellites). A comparison of the satellite luminosity function of NGC 2403 down to this magnitude limit to theoretical expectations shows overall good agreement. This is the first of a full sample of 11 Magellanic Cloud–mass host galaxies we will analyze, creating a statistical sample that will provide the first quantitative constraints on hierarchical models of galaxy formation around low-mass hosts.

Changes in the epidemiology of under-5 mortality in China from 2016 to 2022: an observational analysis of population-based surveillance data

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 aims to end preventable deaths of newborns and children younger than 5 years. China's progress towards SDG 3.2 has not been evaluated on multiple dimensions. We aimed to assess mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) and to quantify preventable child mortality and geospatial and temporal trends in child mortality in China from 2016 to 2022. In this observational analysis, we used data from the Chinese National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System (MCHSS) for the period Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2022 and conducted all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses for different age groups (age 0-6 days, 7-27 days, 0-27 days, 1-5 months, 6-11 months, 12-23 months, 24-59 months, and birth to 59 months) separately at the national, residential (rural vs urban), and regional (eastern vs central vs western China) levels. All mortality rates were adjusted by age group, type of residency, region, and region-residency strata using a 3-year moving average of the under-reporting rates. National deaths were estimated using the number of livebirths from 2016 to 2022 from the Health Statistics Yearbook of China. Estimated national-level and regional-level mortality rates were weighted by the proportion of the population living in urban and rural areas from the 2010 national census. Optimal survival metrics for neonates and children younger than 5 years were calculated by cause of death in 2020-22 (termed the national optimum), on the basis of the lowest mortality observed among the six region-residency strata. In 2022, approximately 65 700 (95% CI 62 700-68 800) children younger than 5 years died in China, with 45·1% (42·7-47·4) of these deaths occurring in the neonatal period (age <28 days). China's under-5 mortality rate decreased from 10·2 deaths (9·9-10·5) per 1000 livebirths in 2016 to 6·8 deaths (6·5-7·2) per 1000 livebirths in 2022; the neonatal mortality rate decreased from 4·9 deaths (4·7-5·1) per 1000 livebirths in 2016 to 3·1 deaths (2·9-3·3) per 1000 livebirths in 2022. The relative risk of death in children younger than 5 years in rural areas compared with urban areas decreased from 2·4 (2·2-2·6) in 2016 to 1·9 (1·7-2·1) in 2022, and in the western region compared with the eastern region decreased from 3·4 (3·0-3·9) in 2016 to 2·3 (1·9-2·8) in 2022. The leading causes of under-5 mortality in 2022 were injuries (23·1% [21·1-25·1] of all-cause deaths), congenital malformations (14·8% [13·1-16·4]), preterm birth complications (14·1% [12·5-15·7]), intrapartum-related events (10·1% [8·7-11·5]), and acute respiratory infections (9·5% [8·2-10·9]). The leading cause of death in the neonatal period was preterm birth complications (12·8% [11·4-14·2] of deaths in children younger than 5 years). Under-5 mortality in China declined between 2016 and 2022. Disparities across regions and in urban versus rural areas narrowed over time, but they still exist. Therefore, efforts should be made to further reduce child mortality in China, including consistent investments and implementing of policies, programmes, and interventions, especially for the western rural areas. None. For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Female Literacy and Crime Against Women in India: Complex Trajectories and Correlations

ABSTRACTGender equality remains a recurrent goal of governments across the world, yet discrimination and abuse continue to impede the progress of women. Within India's patriarchal society, women continue to be viewed through a stereotypical lens. Despite greater focus on female literacy and enactment of legislations that seek to protect women's rights, the safety of women from crime remains tenuous. This research explores trajectories of female literacy and crimes against women (CAW) in India to find possible correlations. Data from the Ministry of Statistics, the National Crime Record Bureau, National Census records and official sample surveys were obtained from government databases. Further, bivariate regression analysis was used to validate the hypothesis. The results indicate a clear correlation between female literacy and CAW, although other factors may be considered to explain certain anomalies.