Census Research Articles

Selective under-representation of Pacific peoples in population estimates for health indicator measurements in Aotearoa New Zealand misinforms policy making

BackgroundThe Census of Populations and Dwellings’ is the five yearly population count of Aotearoa New Zealand. Best available populations (BAP) are subnational projections based on census data and demographic assumptions developed for healthcare planning and funding allocation but are also used as the denominator for health indicator monitoring. Pacific people are systematically undercounted, but the impact on health statistics is not well studied. For COVID-19 vaccination coverage, health service user (HSU) data were considered a more reliable denominator than BAP but introduced new biases. We aimed to understand how the choice of denominator population impacts estimates of population size and health system performance for Pacific people at a local level.MethodsWe described how declining census response rates affected population data quality. We compared BAP and HSU data at district level. For the indicators ‘access to primary care’ and ‘cervical cancer screening uptake’ we replaced currently used BAP denominators with HSU and examined the impact for different ethnic groups in different geographic districts.ResultsOverall Census 2018 response declined by 10%, but for Māori and Pacific people by 21% and 23%, respectively. This inequitably affected BAP accuracy. Census undercount was highest in the district with the largest Pacific populations, where HSU exceeded BAP most. Notably, ‘access to primary care’ for Pacific people in this district consistently exceeds 100%. Using BAP, both health indicators are currently estimated as highest for Pacific people compared to other ethnic groups, but when based on HSU, they dropped to lowest. Similar, but less pronounced trends occurred in other districts. Changes in trends over time for both indicators coincided mostly with adjustments in BAP, rather than changes in the numerators.ConclusionsThe current use of BAP denominators for health statistics does not enable reliable monitoring of key health indicators for Pacific people. HSU denominators are also unsuitable for monitoring health. Exploring the feasibility of a real-time population register is strongly recommended as a new, transparent, way of obtaining more reliable, timely population data to guide policymaking and underpin a more equitable health system under the health reforms. Meanwhile, reporting of ethnic specific outcomes need to include a clear assessment of the potential for bias due to inaccurate population estimates.

Spatial and temporal changes in population distribution and population projection at county level in China

Counties in China play a pivotal role in economic and social development, acting as essential leadership hubs for large and medium-sized cities, contributing to rural revitalization, and facilitating urban-rural integration. Using ArcGIS spatial analysis, this study examines the population distribution spatial and dispersion patterns in Chinese counties based on 40 years of data from the first to the seventh national population census. Results reveal noticeable growth trends and regional disparities in county populations, with an increase in large-population counties and a decrease in small-population ones. Recent population growth concentrates in urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, and southeastern coastal regions, while reductions occur in the northeastern and Inner Mongolia border areas. Furthermore, the study identifies “high-high” agglomerations around provincial capitals and “low-low” agglomerations in economically underdeveloped western and northeastern border regions. China’s population distribution spatial agglomeration has been increasing, with acceleration toward specific areas. The first through seventh census show rapid growth at low density, followed by growth at medium density, stable growth, and eventually negative growth. This suggests a likely slowdown and potential reversal in China’s future population growth. Additionally, an Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecast China’s total population, projecting a decline to 1343.68 million by 2035. The emergence of “population loss counties” in contemporary China underscores the need for a rational understanding of their development status and trends to optimize population development strategies and promote economic and social progress.

Illicit Cannabis Use to Self-Treat Chronic Health Conditions in the United Kingdom: Cross-Sectional Study.

In 2019, it was estimated that approximately 1.4 million adults in the United Kingdom purchased illicit cannabis to self-treat chronic physical and mental health conditions. This analysis was conducted following the rescheduling of cannabis-based medicinal products (CBMPs) in the United Kingdom but before the first specialist clinics had started treating patients. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of illicit cannabis consumption to treat a medically diagnosed condition following the introduction of specialist clinics that could prescribe legal CBMPs in the United Kingdom. Adults older than 18 years in the United Kingdom were invited to participate in a cross-sectional survey through YouGov between September 22 and 29, 2022. A series of questions were asked about respondents' medical diagnoses, illicit cannabis use, the cost of purchasing illicit cannabis per month, and basic demographics. The responding sample was weighted to generate a sample representative of the adult population of the United Kingdom. Modeling of population size was conducted based on an adult (18 years or older) population of 53,369,083 according to 2021 national census data. There were 10,965 respondents to the questionnaire, to which weighting was applied. A total of 5700 (51.98%) respondents indicated that they were affected by a chronic health condition. The most reported condition was anxiety (n=1588, 14.48%). Of those enduring health conditions, 364 (6.38%) purchased illicit cannabis to self-treat health conditions. Based on survey responses, it was modeled that 1,770,627 (95% CI 1,073,791-2,467,001) individuals consume illicit cannabis for health conditions across the United Kingdom. In the multivariable logistic regression, the following were associated with an increased likelihood of reporting illicit cannabis use for health reasons-chronic pain, fibromyalgia, posttraumatic stress disorder, multiple sclerosis, other mental health disorders, male sex, younger age, living in London, being unemployed or not working for other reasons, and working part-time (P<.05). This study highlights the scale of illicit cannabis use for health reasons in the United Kingdom and the potential barriers to accessing legally prescribed CBMPs. This is an important step in developing harm reduction policies to transition these individuals, where appropriate, to CBMPs. Such policies are particularly important considering the potential risks from harmful contaminants of illicit cannabis and self-treating a medical condition without clinical oversight. Moreover, it emphasizes the need for further funding of randomized controlled trials and the use of novel methodologies to determine the efficacy of CBMPs and their use in common chronic conditions.

Ethnic heterogeneity and healthcare utilization: The mediating role of poverty in Ghana

AbstractsThe healthcare that a woman receives during pregnancy, at the time of delivery, and soon after delivery is imperative for the well-being and survival of both the mother and her child. Hence, understanding the factors that influence the utilization of healthcare around the period of birth is important for improving the health of the mother and her child as well as reducing maternal mortality. Although numerous studies have examined the factors that influence the utilization of healthcare around the period of birth, no study has considered the role of ethnic heterogeneity. This paper bridges a significant gap in the literature by reporting findings from the first study that examines the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on healthcare utilization in Ghana. The study utilized data from both the Demographic Health Survey and Ghana Population and Housing Census. Our estimates show that a unit increase in a heterogenous ethnic group lowers the likelihood of utilizing healthcare at the time of birth and after delivery via increasing household poverty.

Application of the performance of machine learning techniques as support in the prediction of school dropout

This article presents a study, intending to design a model with 90% reliability, which helps in the prediction of school dropouts in higher and secondary education institutions, implementing machine learning techniques. The collection of information was carried out with open data from the 2015 Intercensal Survey and the 2010 and 2020 Population and Housing censuses carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, which contain information about the inhabitants and homes. in the 32 federal entities of Mexico. The data were homologated and twenty variables were selected, based on the correlation. After cleaning the data, there was a sample of 1,080,782 records in total. Supervised learning was used to create the model, automating data processing with training and testing, applying the following techniques, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Linear Ridge and Lasso Regression, Bayesian Optimization, Random Forest, the first two with a reliability greater than 99% and the last with 91%.

Responding to preventable causes of maternal and perinatal deaths in Homabay County

Background: The Kenya population and housing census (2019) ranked Homabay County among the 15 counties with the highest maternal mortality rate (MMR) of 516 deaths in 100,000 livebirths and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of 26 in 1,000 livebirths. Baseline assessment reported gaps including dysfunctional maternal and perinatal death surveillance and response system, and untimely perinatal deaths audited. Other challenges contributing to near misses and mortality include erratic availability of blood/blood products, staff shortages affecting the offering of CEmONC services, interfacility referral challenges, not exploiting partnerships with private and faith-based health facilities in the county, and HCW knowledge and skills deficit, especially in management of common causes of death, such as postpartum hemorrhage and eclampsia Methods: MCGL’s objective was to work with the County’s leadership to revitalize the MPDSR system and work toward responding to the causes and avoidable factors contributing to the high burden of maternal and perinatal deaths in the County. MCGL trained HCWs on harvesting and handling of blood products, management of PPH and eclampsia, development of county referral strategy, linkage to private and faith-based HFs, capabilities, support weekly MPDSR committee meetings, develop, and roll out MPDSR of weekly monitoring tool, formation of QI teams, and support for social accountability activities. Results: Improved implementation of MPDSR action points included increased number of CEmONC health facilities, availability and access to blood during PPH emergencies, and point-of-care ultrasound machines in 13 health facilities. There was notable improvement of timely perinatal deaths of audits 47% (70/152). Conclusions: Deliberate and collective effort by the leadership with close follow-up can improve timely auditing and response , which improves the quality of care for mothers and newborns receiving HFs.

IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN BULGARIA'S RURAL TERRITORIES

Bulgaria has one of the fastest rates of population decline in the EU and the world. In 2021, the value is observed to be 21.6% lower compared to the value recorded in 2001. Changes in rural areas are even more dynamic and have a negative impact on their development opportunities. This paper aims to examine and analyse the economic activity of the rural population using statistical data obtained from population censuses. The analysis is mainly focused on the interdependencies between economic activity, employment in agriculture and their implications for the rural economy. Correlation and regression analysis were applied to test the research hypotheses. The summary of the obtained results shows that the coefficient of economic activity rises until 2020, but activity is uneven and at different rates in different regions, with the coefficient being lower in villages at the expense of economic activity in cities; • The unemployment rate in Bulgaria has gone through three stages: until 2013, it was in double digits, then it dropped to 4.2 (in 2021), and in 2019, an increase began, which varied greatly by region. The unemployment rate is significantly higher in the villages, with the most significant differences in the younger age groups; • The correlation analysis revealed a weak, positive, and insignificant relationship between the rural population and the coefficient of economic activity, as well as the presence of a medium, positive, and significant relationship between the rural population and the agricultural labour force; According to the regression analysis, Annual work unit has a positive and significant influence on the population in rural areas, indicating that agricultural specialization and automation are still in their early stages in Bulgaria, and the workforce in the industry is structure-determining Demographic processes have a negative impact on rural development. A cyclical pattern emerges wherein a declining local economy and depopulation coexist and mutually reinforce one another. A decline in demographic potential and a lack of human capital may limit investment flow. For these reasons, investing in human capital is regarded as a critical means of reversing unfavourable trends in demographic structures and processes in all countries affected by accelerated aging and depopulation. This includes improving the health-care system, education and other social services, as well as raising the living standards of rural inhabitants. To achieve this goal, regional demographic policies must be developed that take into account the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of each region. Key words: demographic processes, economic activity, rural territories. JEL: J11, J43

CONDITION, PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE LABOR FORCE IN RURAL AREAS OF BULGARIA

The specific features in the socio-economic development of rural areas in Bulgaria are the basis of non-uniform processes and trends in the formation of local labor force contingents. Based on data from the population and housing censuses conducted in 2011 and 2021, the dynamics of the labor force in rural areas of Bulgaria, as well as its structure by age, gender and education, are analyzed in this study. The research aims to outline the regions with the most serious problems with the reproduction of the labor force through a comparative analysis of the potential of the labor force in rural areas, urban areas and the average level for the country. Emphasis is placed on the impact of changes in the age structure of the working-age population (aging) on the general level of activity, as well as the degree of demographic and economic burden on the labor force throughout the study period. The changes in the structure of the labor force in rural areas are examined in detail and the prospects for the reproduction of the labor force in the short term are outlined. Based on the conclusions, some of the problems facing the effective use of the available labor force in rural areas were analyzed and recommendations were formulated regarding the necessary and adequate changes in the demographic policy, to promote the birth rate and retain a young labor force in the local labor markets. Keywords: Labor force, aging, unemployment, demographic reproduction, rural areas JEL: J20; J21; Е24

Tracking Cryptococcal Meningitis to Monitor HIV Program Success During the Treat All Era: An Analysis of National Data in Botswana.

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) causes substantial mortality in African countries with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), despite advances in disease management and increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Reliable diagnosis of CM is cheap and more accessible than other indicators of advanced HIV disease burden such as CD4 testing or investigation for disseminated tuberculosis; therefore, monitoring CM incidence has the potential to serve as a valuable metric of HIV programmatic success. Botswana national meningitis surveillance data from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from electronic health records. All electronic laboratory records from cerebrospinal fluid samples analyzed within government healthcare facilities in Botswana were extracted from a central online repository. Adjustments for missing data were made through triangulation with prospective cohort study datasets. CM case frequency was enumerated using a case definition and incidence calculated using national census data. A total of 1744 episodes of CM were identified; incidence declined from 15.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4-16.7) cases/100 000 person-years in 2015 to 7.4 (95% CI, 6.4-8.6) cases/100 000 person-years in 2022. However, the rate of decline slowed following the introduction of universal treatment in 2016. The highest incidence was observed in men and individuals aged 40-44 years. The proportion of cases diagnosed through cryptococcal antigen testing increased from 35.5% to 86.3%. CM incidence has decreased in Botswana following expansion of ART coverage but persists at a stubbornly high incidence. Most cases are now diagnosed through the cheap and easy-to-use cryptococcal antigen test, highlighting the potential of using CM as key metric of program success in the Treat All era.

The contextual awareness, response and evaluation (CARE) diabetes project: study design for a quantitative survey of diabetes prevalence and non-communicable disease risk in Ga Mashie, Accra, Ghana

ABSTRACT Diabetes is estimated to affect between 3.3% and 8.3% of adults in Ghana, and prevalence is expected to rise. The lack of cost-effective diabetes prevention programmes designed specifically for the Ghanaian population warrants urgent attention. The Contextual Awareness, Response and Evaluation (CARE): Diabetes Project in Ghana is a mixed methods study that aims to understand diabetes in the Ga Mashie area of Accra, identify opportunities for community-based intervention and inform future diabetes prevention and control strategies. This paper presents the study design for the quantitative survey within the CARE project. This survey will take place in the densely populated Ga Mashie area of Accra, Ghana. A household survey will be conducted using simple random sampling to select households from 80 enumeration areas identified in the 2021 Ghana Population and Housing Census. Trained enumerators will interview and collect data from permanent residents aged ≥ 25 years. Pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last six months will be excluded. Data analysis will use a combination of descriptive and inferential statistics, and all analyses will account for the cluster sampling design. Analyses will describe the prevalence of diabetes, other morbidities, and associated risk factors and identify the relationship between diabetes and physical, social, and behavioural parameters. This survey will generate evidence on drivers and consequences of diabetes and facilitate efforts to prevent and control diabetes and other NCDs in urban Ghana, with relevance for other low-income communities.

Exploring Spatial Proximity and Social Exclusion through Two Case Studies of Roma Settlements in Greece

Roma groups in Greece are a long-standing socially deprived population that faces extreme social exclusion and segregation. Their marginalization includes limited access to education, employment, and housing. This paper explores their spatial position and social exclusion, comparing the social profile and life conditions in two case studies of Roma settlements with those of the municipal and regional units to which they belong. Methodologically, we analyze quantitative data from the 2011 Population Census to measure life conditions at three levels (settlement, municipal unit, regional unit), and we also use qualitative data from interviews with representatives of local agencies and residents of the two settlements to document our hypotheses on the causal relations between the spatial position and the social exclusion of Roma groups. The comparison shows that the two Roma settlements are clearly different from their entourage, assembling the lowest positions in the labor market, the weakest performances in education, the largest households, and the worst housing conditions. This case of extreme social exclusion in ghettoized spatial proximity raises the question about the significance of micro-segregation and the way it works in different contexts, as well as the need for further research for a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between social inequality and spatial distance.

Combining samples in small area estimation: An application to poverty mapping in Vietnam

AbstractSmall area estimation (SAE), which combines a population census and a sample survey, is widely used to estimate poverty and welfare indicators in small areas. A common situation in practice is that a population census is conducted using both short‐ and long‐form questionnaires. The short form is used to collect basic demographic information for the whole population, while the long form is used to collect additional information, such as employment, from a random sample. This study shows that combining both short‐ and long‐form data can improve estimation efficiency. This method is applied to poverty maps for the 2014–2019 period in Vietnam.

Forecasting the Future Supply of Pediatric Subspecialists in the United States: 2020-2040.

Concerns persist about whether the United States has an adequate supply of pediatric subspecialists and whether they are appropriately distributed across the nation to meet children's health needs. This article describes the data and methods used to develop a workforce projection model that estimates the future supply of 14 pediatric subspecialities certified by the American Board of Pediatrics at the national and US census region and division levels from 2020 to 2040. The 14 subspecialties include adolescent medicine, pediatric cardiology, child abuse pediatrics, pediatric critical care medicine, developmental-behavioral pediatrics, pediatric emergency medicine, pediatric endocrinology, pediatric gastroenterology, pediatric hematology-oncology, pediatric infectious diseases, neonatal-perinatal medicine, pediatric nephrology, pediatric pulmonology, and pediatric rheumatology. Hospital medicine was excluded because of the lack of historical data needed for the model. This study addresses the limitations of prior models that grouped adult and pediatric physician subspecialty workforces together and aggregated pediatric subspecialties. The model projects supply at national and subnational levels while accounting for geographic moves that pediatric subspecialists make after training and during their career. Ten "what if" scenarios included in the model simulate the effect of changes in the number of fellows entering training, the rate at which subspecialists leave the workforce, and changes in hours worked in direct and indirect clinical care. All model projections and scenarios are available on a public, interactive Web site. The model's projections can also be examined with other data to provide insight into the possible future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce and offer data to inform decision-making.

Epidemiology and Prevalence of Dyslipidemia Among Adult Population of Tehran: The Tehran Cohort Study.

Dyslipidemia is among the leading risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), with an increasing global burden, especially in developing countries. We investigated the prevalence of dyslipidemia and abnormal lipid profiles in Tehran. We used data from 8072 individuals aged≥35 from the Tehran Cohort Study (TeCS) recruitment phase. Fasting serum total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride were measured. Dyslipidemia was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, and high LDL/HDL was defined as a ratio>2.5. The age-sex standardized prevalence rates were calculated based on the 2016 national census. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of dyslipidemia and lipid abnormalities was investigated across Tehran's zip code districts. The age-sex standardized prevalence was 82.7% (95% CI: 80.1%, 85.0%) for dyslipidemia, 36.9% (95% CI: 33.8%, 40.1%) for hypertriglyceridemia, 22.5% (95% CI: 19.9%, 25.4%) for hypercholesterolemia, 29.0% (95% CI: 26.1%, 32.1%) for high LDL-C, 55.9% (95% CI: 52.6%, 59.2%) for low HDL-C, and 54.1% (95% CI: 50.9%, 57.3%) for high LDL/HDL ratio in the Tehran adult population. The prevalence of dyslipidemia, low HDL-C, and high LDL/HDL ratio was higher in the northern regions, hypercholesterolemia was higher in the southern half, and high LDL-C was more prevalent in the middle-northern and southern areas of Tehran. We found a high prevalence of dyslipidemia, mainly high LDL/HDL in the Tehran adult population. This dyslipidemia profiling provides important information for public health policy to improve preventive interventions and reduce dyslipidemiarelated morbidity and mortality in the future.

Decolonising diversity

The numerical ordering of a population according to racial and ethnic characteristics has its roots in the population census. As a political instrument developed for colonial rule it has lasting legacies in post-colonial governments and, despite well-intentioned efforts, it continues to define racial politics to this day. This case study traces the history of the modern census used in the territory currently known as South Africa since 1865 to the present day, exemplifying it as a political tool for the development of ‘race’ as a political concept in the region. Such census-like technologies are employed in racial diversity schemes throughout the world, often linked to monitoring employment opportunities; the historical development of ‘race’ as a concept within such instruments however is often left unexplored. In this paper I contend legacies of empire are reproduced through the schemes justified as offering compensation and restitution for racialised colonial oppression. Restitution schemes often place emphasis on either race or economic background, however this study demonstrates ethnicity has a larger role to play than others have considered in the past.

Demographic and Socio-economic Changes in Bangladesh: Evidence from the Population Census in 2022

Bangladesh is a developing country, so demographic and socio-economic characteristics are rapidly changing. The latest household and population census in the country was held in 2022. The study objective is to show the demographic and socio-economic status in Bangladesh based on the census data. Data have been collected from the website of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Urbanization in the country is growing although 68.34% of the 169.83 million population is living in the rural area. The literacy rate and dependency ratio of the country are 74.66% and 52.64, respectively, while the sex ratio at birth is 98.0. The toilet facilities of 9.38% of people are unhealthy while about 1.0% are living without electricity. The government of Bangladesh should arrange awareness campaigns to improve the use of healthy toilets, and it should allocate more funds in the energy sector to boost the renewable energy sector

Spatiotemporal changes in hurricane-force wind risk assessment in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Tropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena. These extreme events involve various hazards, such as strong winds, severe precipitation, storm surge, flooding, and landslides. In Mexico, tropical cyclones are the most frequent natural threats and have a high cost to affected populations. This research aimed to characterise the spatial and temporal changes in risk associated with hurricane winds on the Yucatan Peninsula. This effort included a comprehensive analysis of three integral risk components (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) for three distinct time intervals (1950–2000, 1950–2010, and 1950–2020). This analytical process was executed utilising a fine-resolution hexagonal grid. Hazard was estimated by calculating the probabilities of occurrence of winds related to various hurricane categories after estimating wind fields from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data with a parametric model. Vulnerability was approximated by constructing indicators with sociodemographic data from the National Population and Housing Census issued by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography. With these indicators, a factor analysis was performed, and a weighted index was constructed. Finally, exposure was estimated from population density. Each of these indices was aggregated at the hexagonal level, allowing the calculation of the risk associated with hurricane-force wind. The results showed high-risk levels associated with high-hazard levels, e.g. in coastal areas such as the Riviera Maya. Similarly, high-risk levels are related to high marginalisation, i.e. vulnerability, in the northeastern zone of the Yucatan Peninsula. The increased frequency of tropical cyclones combined with high population densities has recently led to higher risk levels in this region of Mexico.

Health Care Challenges in the Management of Primary Aldosteronism in Southeast Asia.

While guidelines have been formulated for the management of primary aldosteronism (PA), following these recommendations may be challenging in developing countries with limited health care access. We aimed to assess the availability and affordability of health care resources for managing PA in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, which includes low-middle-income countries. We instituted a questionnaire-based survey to specialists managing PA, assessing the availability and affordability of investigations and treatment. Population and income status data were taken from the national census and registries. Nine ASEAN country members (48 respondents) participated. While screening with aldosterone-renin ratio is performed in all countries, confirmatory testing is routinely performed in only 6 countries due to lack of facilities and local assays, and cost constraint. Assays are locally available in only 4 countries, and some centers have a test turnaround time exceeding 3 weeks. In 7 countries (combined population of 442 million), adrenal vein sampling (AVS) is not routinely performed due to insufficient radiological facilities or trained personnel, and cost constraint. Most patients have access to adrenalectomy and medications. In 6 countries, the cost of AVS and adrenalectomy combined is more than 30% of its annual gross domestic product per capita. While most patients had access to spironolactone, it was not universally affordable. Large populations currently do not have access to the health care resources required for the optimal management of PA. Greater efforts are required to improve health care access and affordability. Future guideline revisions for PA may need to consider these limitations.

Probabilistic seismic collapse risk assessment of non-engineered masonry buildings in Malawi

This study presents the most recent development of a nationwide earthquake risk model for non-engineered masonry buildings in Malawi. Due to its location within the East African Rift, Malawi experienced several moderate earthquakes that caused seismic damage and loss. Recently, a new probabilistic seismic hazard model has been developed by considering fault-based seismic sources, in addition to conventional areal sources. The most recent 2018 national census data provide accurate exposure information for Malawian people and their assets at detailed spatial resolutions. To develop seismic fragility functions that are applicable to Malawian housing stocks, building surveys and experimental tests of local construction materials have been conducted. By integrating these new developments of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modules, a quantitative seismic building collapse risk model for Malawi is developed on a national scale. For the rapid computation of seismic risk curves at individual locations, an efficient statistical approach for approximating the upper tail distribution of a seismic hazard curve is implemented. Using this technique, a seismic risk curve for a single location can be obtained in a few seconds, thereby, this can be easily expanded to the whole country with reasonable computational times. The results from this new quantitative assessment tool for seismic impact will provide a sound basis for risk-based disaster mitigation policies in Malawi.

The changing social class structure of London, 2001–2021: Continued professionalisation or asymmetric polarisation?

The changing class structure of cities has been a topic of considerable importance and debate for over a 150 years, since the industrial revolution created a large industrial proletariat in many western cities. But the rise of post-industrial society, the decline of the manufacturing industry, a shrinking industrial working class, and the growth of the professional and managerial class from the 1970s onwards has provoked fresh debate about this, as has the emergence of gentrification in many cities. This paper looks at the changing social class structure of London from 2001 to 2021 using data from the population Census. It shows that the higher professional and managerial class continued its long term growth after a pause in 2001–2011. But the number and proportions of small employers, the self-employed and routine workers have also grown. There is therefore continuing professionalisation but also ‘asymmetric polarisation’. The paper also examines the geography of social class change by borough over the period and shows that while the professional and managerial class grew in all boroughs, suggesting a gradual upward class change across London, it was highest in the most gentrified inner London boroughs. However, the percentage point growth of the self-employed and routine groups was generally higher in the mostly suburban boroughs where professional and managerial class percentage point change growth was smallest (and vice versa) which suggests an intensified social class sorting and divergence across London with the lower class groups growing most rapidly in suburban outer London where housing costs are less.