Spatiotemporal changes in hurricane-force wind risk assessment in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena. These extreme events involve various hazards, such as strong winds, severe precipitation, storm surge, flooding, and landslides. In Mexico, tropical cyclones are the most frequent natural threats and have a high cost to affected populations. This research aimed to characterise the spatial and temporal changes in risk associated with hurricane winds on the Yucatan Peninsula. This effort included a comprehensive analysis of three integral risk components (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) for three distinct time intervals (1950–2000, 1950–2010, and 1950–2020). This analytical process was executed utilising a fine-resolution hexagonal grid. Hazard was estimated by calculating the probabilities of occurrence of winds related to various hurricane categories after estimating wind fields from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data with a parametric model. Vulnerability was approximated by constructing indicators with sociodemographic data from the National Population and Housing Census issued by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography. With these indicators, a factor analysis was performed, and a weighted index was constructed. Finally, exposure was estimated from population density. Each of these indices was aggregated at the hexagonal level, allowing the calculation of the risk associated with hurricane-force wind. The results showed high-risk levels associated with high-hazard levels, e.g. in coastal areas such as the Riviera Maya. Similarly, high-risk levels are related to high marginalisation, i.e. vulnerability, in the northeastern zone of the Yucatan Peninsula. The increased frequency of tropical cyclones combined with high population densities has recently led to higher risk levels in this region of Mexico.