Cause-effect Chain Research Articles

Ecohydrology, key-concept for large river restoration

Successful restoration requires clear goals and objectives to succeed. Possibilities for and constraints of rehabilitation - both from a process-oriented view as well as from the nature conservation perspective differ strongly according to the landscape setting of a particular river segment and to the degree of anthropogenic changes. Large river restoration requires the development of an integrative scientific approach between ecology, hydrology and river engineering. For defining ecological targets and longterm sustainability of restoration programmes two aspects are particularly relevant. First, reference standards must be applied. Reference standards have to be based on the original landscape dynamics as defined by hydrology and bedload transport which resulted in a dynamic equilibrium of fluvial processes, habitat composition and consequently characteristic patterns of biodiversity and biogeochemical processes. The application of reference standards has to follow this cause-effect sequence. A second major requirement, dependent on this cause-effect chain between fluvial dynamics, habitat composition and ecology is the development of a prognostic ecohydrological parameter set which allows an evaluation of restoration scenarios and a prediction of their effects at a range of temporal and spatial scales.

The Study about the Service Chain in Management of Customer-Oriented Organizations

Management of customer-oriented organizations tries to institute and continue activities which produce output useful to customers.Customer-orientation exists not only at the boundary of the organizations that link to external customers, but also inside the organization.The climate or atmosphere internal to organizations permeates to external customers.This article refers to management of organizations from the viewpoint of “The Service Chain”.The Service Chain describes a cause-effect chain of individual activities, which results in organizational final outputs.I apply this idea in a vertical and horizontal axis.When we take “Customer-Orientation”in Management of Organization, what is it like? This research note aims to study this question.

Uncoated quartz resonator as a universal biosensor

We studied dynamic processes in drying drops of model protein–salt solutions, using an uncoated quartz resonator as a biosensor. To measure these processes we developed a method based on recording the dynamics of the Acoustic-Mechanical Impedance (AMI) of a drop as it dried on the surface of a quartz resonator oscillating at a resonant frequency of 60 kHz. The aim of this work was to highlight the role of some components of serum in self-organization processes. Human serum albumin (HSA), fibronectin (Fn), immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), bovine serum albumin (BSA), sodium chloride (NaCl), Potassium Chloride (KCl), and nonionic surfactant O(CH 2CH 2) n CH 2CH 2OH were used as components of the tested solutions. It was shown that dynamics of the AMI in drying drops were closely related to liquid composition. This approach allowed us to distinguish with good accuracy solutions in which one or more components (proteins or salts) were replaced by other components with the same mass concentration. We assumed that these differences were due to different surface properties and native functions of proteins, and different positions of salts in the Hofmeister line. Our preliminary work demonstrated that the dynamics of phase transitions in drying drops of serum could be used as an informative parameter for medical diagnostics. In this study, we highlight some positions in this cause-effect chain.

An attack-norm separation approach for detecting cyber attacks

The two existing approaches to detecting cyber attacks on computers and networks, signature recognition and anomaly detection, have shortcomings related to the accuracy and efficiency of detection. This paper describes a new approach to cyber attack (intrusion) detection that aims to overcome these shortcomings through several innovations. We call our approach attack-norm separation. The attack-norm separation approach engages in the scientific discovery of data, features and characteristics for cyber signal (attack data) and noise (normal data). We use attack profiling and analytical discovery techniques to generalize the data, features and characteristics that exist in cyber attack and norm data. We also leverage well-established signal detection models in the physical space (e.g., radar signal detection), and verify them in the cyberspace. With this foundation of information, we build attack-norm separation models that incorporate both attack and norm characteristics. This enables us to take the least amount of relevant data necessary to achieve detection accuracy and efficiency. The attack-norm separation approach considers not only activity data, but also state and performance data along the cause-effect chains of cyber attacks on computers and networks. This enables us to achieve some detection adequacy lacking in existing intrusion detection systems.

Spatial Differentiation in the Characterisation of Photochemical Ozone Formation: The EDIP2003 Methodology

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2006.04.014 In the life cycle of a product, emissions take place at many different locations. The location of the source and its surrounding conditions influence the fate of the emitted pollutant and the subsequent exposure it causes. This source of variation is normally neglected in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA), although it is well known that the impacts predicted by site-generic LCIA in some cases differ significantly from the actual impacts. Environmental impacts of photochemical ozone (ground-level ozone) depend on parameters with a considerable geographical variability (like emission patterns and population densities). A spatially differentiated characterisation model thus seems relevant. and Results. The European RAINS model is applied for calculation of site-dependent characterisation factors for Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for 41 countries or regions within Europe, and compatible characterisation factors for carbon monoxide (CO) are developed based on expert judgement. These factors are presented for three emission years (1990, 1995 and 2010), and they address human health impacts and vegetation impacts in two separate impacts categories, derived from AOT40 and AOT60 values respectively. Compatible site-generic characterisation factors for NMVOC, NOx, CO and methane (CH4) are calculated as emission-weighted European averages to be applied on emissions for which the location is unknown. The site-generic and site-dependent characterisation factors are part of the EDIP2003 LCIA methodology. The factors are applied in a specific case study, and it is demonstrated how the inclusion of spatial differentiation may alter the results of the photochemical ozone characterisation of life cycle impact assessment. and Conclusions. Compared to traditional midpoint characterisation modelling, this novel approach is spatially resolved and comprises a larger part of the cause-effect chain including exposure assessment and exceeding of threshold values. This positions it closer to endpoint modelling and makes the results easier to interpret. In addition, the developed model allows inclusion of the contributions from NOx, which are ne- glected when applying the traditional approaches based on Photochemical Ozone Creation Potentials (POCPs). The variation in site-dependent characterisation factors is far larger than the variation in POCP factors. It thus seems more important to represent the spatially determined variation in exposure than the difference in POCP among the substances.

Environmental Impact of Urban Heat Island Phenomena —Cause-effect chain and evaluation in Osaka City—

The impacts of urban heat island phenomenon on human activity and ecosystems have already been obvious in Japanese large cities. To discuss importance of urban heat island mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify and quantify urban heat island impacts such as change in energy use (cooling, heating and hot water supply), change in water use, heat stress, damage to urban ecosystem, air pollution, change in precipitation and floods, etc. In this paper, cause-effect chain of urban heat island impacts is proposed and some examples of heat island impacts in Osaka city are identified and evaluated. Change in energy consumption in residential and commercial sector is evaluated quantitatively by numerical simulation. The result shows the difference in total energy consumption by different air temperature is small since decrease in heating and hot water energy use compensate for increase in cooling energy use.

Attack profiles to derive data observations, features, and characteristics of cyber attacks

Existing techniques for cyber attack detection rely mainly on activity data from computers and networks. Little consideration has been given to other kinds of data in the cause-effect chains of att...

Impact of Vedic Worldview and Gunas on Transformational Leadership

Thought processes, implicit assumptions, beliefs, and attitudes of leaders can be meaningfully studied only if they are interwoven into a composite whole by a cultural thread wherefrom they emanate. This study explores the personality traits and worldview of transformational leaders from an Indian cultural perspective. Indian philosophy provides a framework to help understand a person's mental make-up. It offers the Guna theory, also called the tri-dimensional personality theory, to explain differences across individuals. The Vedic texts also outline concepts like Karma (cause-effect chain or the basic law governing all actions) and Maya (existing bundle of inexplicable contradictions of the world) which help in comprehending a person's worldview. Only through a clear understanding of the leader's worldview can we unravel the secrets of transformational leadership and try enhancing it. This paper reports an experiment conducted to observe the impact of the different Gunas and the Vedic worldview on the magnitude of transformational leadership. There are three Gunas: Sattva (awareness), Rajas (dynamism), and Tamas (inertness). Gunas are fundamental ingredients or constituents in every being and each being is composed of all the three Gunas. When one of the three Gunas is dominant in a person, that person is characterized by that Guna. The Gunas were manipulated by portraying a political leader as being high on one or two of the Gunas. The Vedic worldview (operationalized as an understanding of Maya and belief in Karma) was manipulated by portraying the leader as having or not having such a worldview. The outcome variable was transformational leadership as perceived by the participants. The sample consisted of 140 students, 97 males and 43 females, aged between 16 and 20 years, from a prominent school in eastern India. A 3 x 2 + 1 factorial design was used where Sattva, Rajas, and Sattva-Rajas combinations were crossed with Vedic worldview (yes or no) to produce six cells, Tamas being the seventh cell. A 47-item multi- factor leadership questionnaire was used to capture the five factors of transformational leadership as perceived by the participants: attributed charisma idealized influence inspirational leadership intellectual stimulation individualized consideration. The mean of the five factors formed the transformational leadership score. The results of analyses of variance indicate the following: Sattva and Vedic worldview separately enhance transformational leadership whereas Tamas reduces it. Sattva-Rajas combination also enhances transforma-tional leadership but the effect is not more than the effect of Sattva alone. Sattva and Vedic worldview together do not enhance transformational leadership more than what Sattva alone does. The paper concludes with a discussion on what the organizations can do for enhancing transformational leadership by using the Guna framework and by reinforcing the Vedic worldview which are summarized as follows: Design training programmes to develop Sattva and reduce Tamas. Build team-orientation and self-sacrifice for directing energies towards superordinate goals. Base organizational policies on a competency framework built around Sattva and a Vedic orientation.

Isolating cause-effect chains from computer programs

Consider the execution of a failing program as a sequence of program states. Each state induces the following state, up to the failure. Which variables and values of a program state are relevant for the failure? We show how the Delta Debugging algorithm isolates the relevant variables and values by systematically narrowing the state difference between a passing run and a failing run--by assessing the outcome of altered executions to determine wether a change in the program state makes a difference in the test outcome. Applying Delta Debugging to multiple states of the program automatically reveals the cause-effect chain of the failure--that is, the variables and values that caused the failure.In a case study, our prototype implementation successfully isolated the cause-effect chain for a failure of the GNU C compiler: "Initially, the C program to be compiled contained an addition of 1.0; this caused an addition operator in the intermediate RTL representation; this caused a cycle in the RTL tree--and this caused the compiler to crash."

Current issues in the characterisation of toxicological impacts

Fate, exposure and effect measures provide a basis for the calculation of characterisation factors in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Such characterisation factors provide insights into the relative concern of chemical emissions within and across life cycle inventories, in the context of toxicological stress to humans and to ecosystems. A brief overview is presented in this paper of the available options for toxicological characterisation and of associated issues that will need to be addressed in future consensus-building initiatives. An introduction is provided to issues such as: (1) the benefit of measures calculated at midpoints versus at endpoints in the toxicological cause-effect chains (sometimes termed environmental mechanisms); (2) the need to use multimedia models with spatial resolution; (3) the political consequences of accounting for variations in population density; (4) uncertainties in the toxicological potency measures; and (5) the different options for the toxicological endpoint measure(s). These issues are addressed under the headings of Fate and Exposure, Human Health and (aquatic) Ecosystem Health.

Midpoints versus endpoints: The sacrifices and benefits

On May 25–26, 2000 in Brighton (England), the third in a series of international workshops was held under the umbrella of UNEP addressing issues in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). The workshop provided a forum for experts to discuss midpoint vs. endpoint modeling. Midpoints are considered to be links in the cause-effect chain (environmental mechanism) of an impact category, prior to the endpoints, at which characterization factors or indicators can be derived to reflect the relative importance of emissions or extractions. Common examples of midpoint characterization factors include ozone depletion potentials, global warming potentials, and photochemical ozone (smog) creation potentials. Recently, however, some methodologies have adopted characterization factors at an endpoint level in the cause-effect chain for all categories of impact (e.g., human health impacts in terms of disability adjusted life years for carcinogenicity, climate change, ozone depletion, photochemical ozone creation; or impacts in terms of changes in biodiversity, etc.). The topics addressed at this workshop included the implications of midpoint versus endpoint indicators with respect to uncertainty (parameter, model and scenario), transparency and the ability to subsequently resolve trade-offs across impact categories using weighting techniques. The workshop closed with a consensus that both midpoint and endpoint methodologies provide useful information to the decision maker, prompting the call for tools that include both in a consistent framework.

From data and theory to environmental models and indices formation

A prerequisite for environmental indices is that they represent environmental pressure, and the state of, and impact on environmental conditions. In other words, they should capture as much as possible of the cause-effect chains they represent and relate pressure and effect to criteria of environmental quality. The approach proposed in the article attempts to link the pressure–state–impact–response framework of indicators to the integrated environmental model, based on the method of response function (MRF). The MRF allows to construct purposeful, credible models from data and prior knowledge or information. The data are usually time series observations of system inputs and outputs, and sometimes of internal states. The output of such models is presented with highly aggregated environmental indices, reflecting the main pressure–state–impact–response cause-effect chains. The proposed approach is illustrated with the example of soil erosion indices.

Indicators for sustainable agriculture - a theoretical framework for classifying and assessing indicators

Indicators can be used for identifying, simplifying and quantifying agri-environmental aspects of sustainability. They offer us a way to proceed from the theoretical definition of sustainability to more practically oriented approaches. This study examines agricultural systems with a view to identifying the points and levels at which the sustainability of these systems can be assessed. The agri-environmental indicators are presented within the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Although suitable for ecological indicators, this framework is not highly relevant for economic and social indicators, which were thus studied from a more general theoretical perspective. As the concept of sustainability includes a number of different value-laden definitions, the setting of indicators should be seen as an ongoing re-evaluation rather than a technical process of measuring certain parameters. The need to refine the assessment methods was recognised in several subthemes of agricultural sustainability. A major shortcoming was found to be the lack of tools for evaluating qualitative phenomena such as landscapes and animal welfare. Likewise, in economics and the social sciences, much needs to be done to promote understanding of the interactions between these disciplines and environmental processes. Moreover, the basic framework of the assessments requires further examination, for instance, when interpreting the indicator results, when dealing with uncertainty and when seeking to identify cause-effect chains, even though these questions are no longer purely matters of indicator methodology.;

Georg Simmel and Erving Goffman: Legitimators of the Sociological Investigation of Human Experience

By originating and developing the sociological investigation of human experience, Georg Simmel and Erving Goffman have shifted social phenomena at the edge of awareness to the center of attention, and have legitimated their study for contemporary sociologists. Both Simmel and Goffman describe these subtle social phenomena by distinguishing their perceptual boundaries and crossover elements, pointing out their common features when their statuses differ, and reversing their traditional location in means-end and cause-effect chains. But Durkheim's influence on Goffman's basic conceptions of interaction, individual, and society differentiated his interpretation of these social phenomena from Simmel's. Moreover, Simmel's and Goffman's explanations of these social phenomena evolve in different directions, revealing the antithetical goals toward which spiritual transcendental Simmelians and cynical reductive Goffmanians would lead sociology.

Contamination by persistent chemicals in food chain and human health

Persistent polluting chemicals are, by definition, substances which have long half-lives or disappearance rates in the environment, mainly due to their chemical stability, but often also caused by unfavourable conditions for environmental/biological mineralisation processes to take place. DDT, lindane, dieldrin, HCB, and PCB are well known examples of chemicals which can be found in various parts/compartments of the environment, and in living organisms including man.The early findings in 1950s and 1960s of the persistent chlorinated pesticides in birds and fish populations in North America and Europe were obviously the results of deliberate and extensive use of these chemicals in agriculture and industry. The findings were confirmed and substantiated by national and international monitoring programmes, and it became clear that many field observations of threatened species convincingly could be correlated to the increasing levels of contamination.Still more man-made chemicals have been drawn into the field of interests as widespread pollutants, and the geographical areas in which contamination takes place have become ever larger. The threat to groundwater ressources from infiltration of pesticides into soils, and the alarming reports on contamination of mothers milk are to-day well-known examples. They are described from many parts of the world. Similarly, the food chain biomagnification of several pesticides and of PCB which were already described from Great Lakes region in North America in the 1960s and from the Baltic Sea area in Europe in the 1970s has since then been followed by identical observations in the Danube basin in Eastern Europe and in Indian provinces during the 1980s.Scientifically, we are to-day able to describe many of the fundamental processes, including environmental transport and transformation, as well as exposure, uptake and metabolic patterns for many of the persistent man-made chemicals.Accordingly, we are reasonably well informed of the most obvious cause-effect chains which govern the process of increasing pollution. We understand and can often for most of the chemicals predict the hazards of the environment as well as to man. In spite of this experience, and contrary to belief created by our scientific knowledge, the problem of contamination is still increasing. This includes the frequency of reported accidents and damages from all over the world. It is obvious, therefore, that the question becomes a matter of concern for the global society and a call for world-wide attention through international bodies develops into a matter of urgency.

Control of macroalgae blooms in the Lagoon of Venice

The present work is part of the program financed by the Italian Government to save Venice and its lagoon. The aim of the program is the identification, design and construction of the interventions needed both to protect the territory from flood events and to improve the quality of the ecosystem. This paper reports on the progress of the work concerning the second point. Extensive blooms of macroalgae of the type Ulva rigida leading to anoxia in large parts of the Venice lagoon are rapidly reducing the quality of the ecosystem and affecting its use as a natural resource for fishing, acquiculture and recreation. The uncontrolled eutrophication of the lagoon is caused mainly by the presence of high loads of nutrients and the particular morphological and hydro-dynamic setting of the lagoon. Overlaying techniques using GIS capabilities were adopted to assess the relative importance of the physical and chemical factors for each part of the lagoon and the most vulnerable areas were identified. To formalize the cause-effect chains in the Venice lagoon an ecological model was set up based on a fine-grid hydrodynamic flow field. The ecological model focused on the life cycle of the macroalgae. It includes the processes of overwintering, growth and decomposition as well as the horizontal transport due to wind and the circulation induced by the tide. Combined use of the GIS and the model has allowed the definition of the most promising strategies based on the present understanding of the functioning of the ecosystem.

Interaction and learning in mathematics classroom situations

An analysis of one ten minute episode in which three seven year-old students engage in collaborative small group activity is presented to explore the relationship between individual learning and group development. Particular attention is given to the establishment of a taken-as-shared basis for mathematical activity and to the attainment of intersubjectivity. From a perspective which treats communication as a process of active interpretation and mutual adaptation, learning as it occurs in the course of social interaction is characterized as a circular, self-referential sequence of events rather than a linear cause-effect chain. In addition, the relationship between individual learning and group development is such that the students can be said to have participated in the establishment of the situations in which they learned.

Integral Risk Analysis as a Supporting Framework for Water Quality Management

The prevention of pollution in a marine ecosystem such as the North Sea has traditionally been approached from two angles i.e. (1) by controlling the disturbance at source and (2) by monitoring the quality of the marine environment and act when deleterious effects occur. These approaches are loosely based on the precautionary principle and on the concept of assimilative capacity, respectively. Although in principle different approaches, they are similar in practice as they both accept, rightly or wrongly, a certain input of pollutants to the marine environment. There remains however, a stubborn lack of information as to what qualitative and quantitative relationship exists between the input(s)/sources and consequently the distrubance or effects in the marine environment. Environmental stress in a marine ecosystem becomes visible when the dynamics of its elements deviate from their normal cycles or fluctuations. These observable end-effects are often the initial reason for concern, i.e. long after the process of disturbance is underway. It has always been difficult to interpret these mostly complex signals and relate the observations to primary causes. In order to handle the diversity of information and signals in the cause-effect chain between input(s)/sources and disturbance, the development of a comprehensive logic framework is needed.

A decision support system for conflict analysis on environmental effects of energy conversion

Environmental aspects play an important role in the complex decision process of energy production. In this article we describe an Environmental Assessment System (EASY) that functions as a decision support system to actors or groups of actors involved in the decision process. The system contains two dimensions: one for information processing and one for evaluation. The information processing dimension deals with the representation of real world phenomena by means of impact analysis (cause-effect chains). The evaluation dimension deals with evaluation of a set of alternatives at each level of the cause and effect chain. The potentials for use of EASY in situations of conflict between (groups of) decision makers are discussed by means of two examples.