Catastrophic Climate Change Research Articles

Contextualizing climate change education: taking nature seriously

ABSTRACT This paper argues that a proper response to the onset of potentially catastrophic human-induced climate change requires an understanding that is both broader and deeper than that which frequently informs current policies and that focusses on technological solutions and some behaviour modification. Such a technologically orientated response is seen as standing in danger of reinforcing what are argued to be the key underlying causes of anthropogenic climate change: immoderate anthropocentrism and conceiving nature essentially as purely a resource. A view of nature that seeks to characterize and respect nature’s intrinsic moral standing that is based on recognizing its inherent integrity, normativity and intrinsic value is developed. The genuinely receptive-responsive relationship with nature that emerges is argued to lie at the heart of the kind of environmental consciousness that can properly address climate change issues and that therefore constitutes a central concern of climate change education.

Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

AbstractThere is a diverging perception of climate tipping points, abrupt changes and surprises in the scientific community and the public. While such dynamics have been observed in the past, e.g., frequent reductions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last ice age, or ice sheet collapses, tipping points might also be a possibility in an anthropogenically perturbed climate. In this context, high impact—low likelihood events, both in the physical realm as well as in ecosystems, will be potentially dangerous. Here we argue that a formalized assessment of the state of science is needed in order to establish a consensus on this issue and to reconcile diverging views. This has been the approach taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 1990, the IPCC has consistently generated robust consensus on several complex issues, ranging from the detection and attribution of climate change, the global carbon budget and climate sensitivity, to the projection of extreme events and their impact. Here, we suggest that a scientific assessment on tipping points, conducted collaboratively by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, would represent an ambitious yet necessary goal to be accomplished within the next decade.

A raising alarm on the current global electronic waste situation through bibliometric analysis, life cycle, and techno-economic assessment: a review.

Electronic waste (E-waste) production worldwide is increasing three times faster than the growth of the global population, and it is predicted that the total volume of E-waste will reach 74 million tonnes by 2030. United Nations warned that unless emissions of heat-trapping gases are drastically reduced, humanity will face catastrophic climate change. We created a bibliometric analysis and discussed the life cycle and techno-economic assessments of the current E-waste situation. We found trending E-waste topics, particularly those related to industrial facilities implementing a circular economy framework and improving the recycling methods of lithium-ion batteries, and this was linked to the topic of electric vehicles. Other research themes included bioleaching, hydrometallurgy, reverse logistics, heavy metal life cycle assessment, and sustainability. These topics can interest industrial factories and scientists interested in these fields. Also, throughout techno-economic assessments, we highlighted several economic and investment opportunities to benefit stakeholders from E-waste recycling. While the rate of E-waste is increasing, consumer education on the proper E-waste management strategies, a collaboration between international organizations with the industrial sector, and legislation of robust E-waste regulations may reduce the harmful effect on humans and the environment and increase the income to flourish national economies.

Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece

The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high.

Risk-driven composition decoupling analysis for urban flooding prediction in high-density urban areas using Bayesian-Optimized LightGBM

With catastrophic climate change and accelerated urbanization, urban flooding has emerged as the most influential hazard over last few decades. Therefore, a systematic study on the assessment of urban flooding vulnerability and evaluation of multidimensional relationship between flooding indicators and inundation depth is imperatively needed. Machine learning methods have been proven to be extremely effective in predicting urban flooding susceptivity based on a multivariate data-driven approach. In the present study, a cascade modeling chain was explored consisting of integrated Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and decoupling analysis of risk-driven composition, based on a multi-factor database consisting of hydro-meteorological, underlying-surfaces, and building configurations indicators. LightGBM was verified to be reliable and robust for urban flooding vulnerability assessment. Taking Shenzhen as a case study, the results indicated that rainfall volume (TOTAL_R), rainfall duration (LTIME), percentage of impervious surface (PIS), building congestion degree (BCD) and density of buildings (DB) were mainly responsible for the increase in flooding risk, while percentage of water coverage (PW) was highly efficient in flooding mitigation. Areas with high flooding risks are concentrated in older metropolitan areas when the rainfall volume surpassed 125 mm or the rainfall duration was longer than 55h. The urban flooding vulnerability was significantly increased when the PIS, BCD, and DB were greater than 14%, 0.58, and 16 n/ha, respectively. It was recommended that adaptation strategies should be implemented in high-density areas to increase urban resilience to extreme rainfall events. The findings of this study can serve as a scientific basis and technical support for sustainable urban stormwater management.

Population, Climate Change and the Philosopher’s Message

AbstractPopulation size is a significant variable that can be addressed to help combat climate change. If global fertility rates dropped by only 0.5 births per woman, almost a third of the emissions needed to avoid catastrophic climate change could be saved. This is equivalent to the annual emissions that would be saved from doubling the fuel efficiency of cars, increasing wind energy 50-fold or improving nuclear energy three times over. It accounts for over half of the Earth’s yearly emissions. Yet, is there a way to address population size without violating human rights? To what extent should individual reproductive practices change? These are live questions. However, various philosophers claim that procreators should limit themselves to having no more than one child. Doing so, they say, strikes the most appropriate balance between protecting reproductive justice for people who want to have children and achieving a sustainable future.This paper pushes back on this claim. There are plausibly too many sexist, racist, classist and eugenic outcomes in demanding people limit their procreation to one child. Therefore, philosophers should relax their messaging about permissibility limits and be more concerned with helping people cultivate the right character to think through procreation and overpopulation.

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Disclosure on Firms' Market Value in a "Dual Carbon" Context

With the acceleration of global warming, climate change and environmental issues have become a hotspot of global concern. At present, it has become a global consensus to vigorously develop a green economy and achieve "carbon neutrality and carbon peak". In this context, as an important part of the national economy, listed companies should pay more attention to carbon emission and information disclosure to help achieve the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral". In this paper, we use a multiple linear regression model to explore the specific mechanism of the impact of carbon emission disclosure on enterprise market value. In constructing the model, we consider that factors such as asset size, operating profit margin, and cash flow ratio may affect the market value of enterprises, so we add control variables in the model and use t-test, F-test, and analysis of covariance to verify whether there is a significant difference between different groups. Descriptive statistics and Pearson's correlation coefficient were also carried out during data processing in order to observe whether there is a correlation between carbon emissions and company market value. By analysing the results of regression fitting, we find that under the background of "dual-carbon", the active disclosure of carbon emissions by enterprises can help enterprises to improve their transparency, thus enhancing the trust and recognition of consumers and investors, and thus positively affecting the market value of the enterprises, and the impact of the active disclosure of carbon emissions by enterprises with high carbon emissions is even more significant on their market value. market value is even more significant. This implies that companies should actively participate in emission reduction actions and demonstrate their action on environmental protection by proactively disclosing carbon emission information in their annual reports or CSR reports.

Critical material requirements and recycling opportunities for US wind and solar power generation

AbstractThe deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, driven primarily by concerns over catastrophic climate change, is expected to increase rapidly in the United States. Rapid increases in the deployment of wind and solar energy will translate to increases in critical material requirements, causing concern that demand could outstrip supply, leading to mineral price volatility and potentially slowing the energy transition. This study presents a detailed demand‐side model for wind and solar in the United States using dynamic material flow analysis to calculate the requirements for 15 elements: Cr, Zn, Ga, Se, Mo, Ag, Cd, In, Sn, Te, Pr, Nd, Tb, Dy, and Pb. Results show that transitioning to a completely decarbonized US energy system by 2050 could require a five‐to‐sevenfold increase in critical material flow‐into‐use compared with business as usual (BAU), with some materials requiring much larger increases. Rare earth elements (REEs) could require 60–300 times greater material flows into the US power sector in 2050 than in 2021, representing 13%–49% of the total global REE supply. Te requirements for reaching net zero by 2050 could exceed current supply, posing challenges for widespread deployment of cadmium‐telluride solar. We also investigate several strategies for reducing material requirements, including closed‐loop recycling, material intensity reduction, and changing market share of subtechnologies (e.g., using crystalline silicon solar panels instead of cadmium telluride). Although these strategies can significantly reduce critical material requirements by up to 40% on average, aggressive decarbonization will still require a substantial amount of critical material.

Community-Centred Energy Planning: Within and beyond Administrative Borders

Since its introduction in 2008, the Covenant of Mayors (CoM) has helped municipalities meet EU Climate and Energy goals and thresholds through Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Planning (SECAP). The engagement of local communities holds particular significance for smaller municipalities, which can leverage collective strategies to mutually contribute to climate change mitigation efforts, thereby optimizing results. In the realm of communities, Renewable Energy Communities (REC) have emerged as a potential tool for SECAP implementation, but although they target common objectives and constitute subsequent steps of the same planning flow, their interaction is poor. This study aimed to investigate similar tools’ integration by focusing on administrative and technical boundaries whose overlaps often hinder their interoperability. To this aim, the Italian framework was chosen due to the representation of its signatories in the CoM. Municipalities that have undertaken actions related to RECs within their Joint SECAPs have been compared through an analysis of the CoM datasets. Finally, two Italian case studies were selected to evaluate the impact of different territorial and institutional configurations on these initiatives, aiming to face climate change and achieve a green transition. This helped the authors propose practical recommendations and policy implications concerning this kind of community-centred energy planning solution as outlined in the concluding section.

Arriving at a tipping point for worldwide forest decline due to accelerating climatic change

The 2023–2024 El Niño is inducing an acceleration of global warming that is likely to far exceed 1.5 °C. The Boreal summer of 2023 provided numerous examples of catastrophic forest fires (e.g., >18 million hectares of forest burned in Canada, making the Canadian forest a clear carbon source rather than a carbon sink), a trend that has been accompanied by worldwide examples of unusual tree mortality linked to hotter droughts. It is reasonable to expect that the warming induced by El Niño could push forests in several parts of the world over a tipping point, where they will hardly be able to recover their original state. It is therefore necessary to address the meaning, realistically, of sustainable forest management in the era of accelerated climatic change. The ultimate goal of the broadly accepted silvicultural practice of maintaining forests in a state that resembles what we recognize as temperate or boreal forests is becoming more of an idealistic dream rather than an attainable goal. Thus, the time has arrived to discuss painful forest management decisions, such as anticipated thinning to reduce water competition and the gradual replacement of native local forest populations with more drought-resistant provenances and species.

Social Ecological Systems in Flux

A world in flux confronts the present generation, raising fears of systems gone awry. Whether it is the prospect of runaway climate change or the dangers of unbridled artificial intelligence, these dilemmas suggest that scientific and technological remedies have not been matched by progress in harnessing social and political capacities for collective action. Part of this impasse stems from a gap between the multidimensional nature of contemporary global crises and unidimensional modes of understanding and managing them. In this article, we describe an integrative approach rooted in the paradigm of social ecology that might enable us to tackle these challenges more comprehensively. We discuss, for example, how a social ecological perspective focuses attention not only on the carbon footprint of society but also on the social footprint of carbon. We review the tenets of social ecology and reflect on its promise for spurring new modes of collaborative research and collective action, including more effective strategies for planetary governance.

Applying the Rumsfeld Matrix: Unknown Unknown Climate Risks in an AMOC Collapse Scenario

This paper investigates scientific research using Rumsfeld’s typology to grasp uncertainties in an era of ‘catastrophic climate change and the risk landscape of a ‘2°C-3°C world’. The study highlights the importance of 'unknown unknowns' and the emergence of 'Black Swan' climate events, such as frequent 500-year droughts and discusses how adaptive strategies can be crafted today, building on the “unknown knowns” of the past, such as the Great American Dust Bowl. It emphasizes the need for a structured approach to uncertainty in water resource management, relevant for understanding climate change’s significant impact on water cycles, evident in phenomena like cloudbursts and prolonged droughts. Additionally, research into abrupt climate change, such as the potential mid-century collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed using the Rumsfeld matrix to understand research gaps and generate insights for further study.

Influence of climate factors on the global dynamic distribution of Tsuga (Pinaceae)

Throughout the Quaternary period, climate change has significantly influenced plant distribution, particularly affecting species within the genus Tsuga (Endl.) Carrière. This climatic impact ultimately led to the extinction of all Tsuga species in Europe. Today, there are ten recognized species of Tsuga worldwide, one of listed as a vulnerable species and four as near-threatened species. The genus Tsuga exhibits a disjunctive distribution in East Asia (EA), eastern North America (ENA), and western North America (WNA). It is crucial to comprehend the mechanisms underlying these distributional changes and to identify key climate variables to develop effective conservation strategies for Tsuga under future climate scenarios. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model by combining distribution data for Tsuga with abundant pollen fossil data. Our objective was to investigate the climate factors that shape the distribution of Tsuga, identify climate thresholds, and elucidate distribution dynamics in the context of significant climate changes over the past 1070 thousand years (ka). Our findings highlight the pivotal role of precipitation as the key climate factor affecting the distribution of Tsuga. Specifically, in EA, summer precipitation was the key driver, while in North America (NA), winter precipitation exerted greater importance. Moreover, we observed similarities in climatic requirements between Tsuga species in Europe and EA, and declines in summer precipitation and winter temperature were major factors contributing to the extinction of Tsuga species in Europe. Quaternary glacial and interglacial fluctuations exerted substantial impacts on Tsuga distribution dynamics. The disappearance of Tsuga species in the Korean Peninsula may have occurred during the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum). The potential suitable area for Tsuga species in EA expanded during the cold periods, while in NA, it contracted. In the future, climate change may result Tsuga distribution area contraction in both the EA and NA. Our study has identified distinct response patterns of Tsuga in various geographic regions to Quaternary climate change and offers corresponding suggestions for Tsuga conservation. In the future, it will be imperative to prioritize the conservation of natural Tsuga distributions in EA and NA, with a focus on the impacts of precipitation fluctuation on the dynamic distribution of this genus.

Investigating the fast energy-related carbon emissions growth in African countries and its drivers

Efforts to avoid the acceleration of global warming have tended to focus on countries with high CO2 emissions levels and large populations, with a high level of economic development or industrialization. African countries, which often do not conform to such criteria, are more vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence on climate-sensitive industries and their limited infrastructure and technological capacity to cope with its impacts. The long-term economic growth rates projected for Africa's rapid development period will, further, make Africa a potential emission hotspot in the near future. Here, for the first time, we built an energy-related emissions inventory for 19 African countries for 2010–2019, which addresses emissions from 47 economic sectors and 5 energy types, making it the most comprehensive of its kind. The degree of decoupling of economy and emissions, and drivers of CO2 emission changes are also examined. Most African countries experienced rapid growth in CO2 emissions, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% for fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions and 6.0% for unsustainable biomass-related CO2 emissions. Only two countries, South Africa and Tanzania, have achieved a strong decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions. Economic and population are the most important drivers of emissions, while energy intensity has been identified as a key factor in mitigating CO2 emissions, especially for those countries that have reached strong or weak decoupling. The findings from this study provide essential insights that could guide the development of low-carbon policies and strategies in Africa.

Effects of climatic factors on carbohydrate composition of soybeans in Argentina

AbstractCarbohydrates are the second largest component of soybean seeds and include soluble sugars, a major source of energy. However, some oligosaccharides such as the raffinose family of oligosaccharides (RFOs) are considered antinutritional factors. In Argentina, the soybean crop area shows high climatic variation during the seed‐filling period (R5–R7), affecting seed composition. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of climatic traits on carbohydrate (CHO) seed composition of different cultivar types. Daily air temperature and solar radiation were measured during R5–R7 in two soybean varieties: (non‐transgenic) ALIM3.14 and a commercial. Precipitation and evapotranspiration during the crop season (R1–R7) were used to calculate a hydric balance proxy. ALIM 3.14 showed a better CHO profile than the commercial soybean. ALIM 3.14 had lower stachyose and total RFOs (25.1 and 28.9 g kg−1) than the commercial cultivar (37.3 and 42.3 g kg−1), respectively. Air temperature explained variations in CHO. A decrease in sucrose was observed with the increase in mean temperature (−2.65 g 100 g−1 per °C). Sucrose/total RFO and total sugar concentration also declined with increasing mean temperature −0.10 g 100 g−1 per °C and −0.35 g 100 g−1 per °C, respectively. Soybean with desired nutritional profile for specialties, such as high sucrose concentration and low raffinose, were obtained at cool temperatures (<19.4°C) during seed filling. Producers and breeders can use this information to identify climatic variable thresholds that maximize the concentration of sugars in seeds and select traits and environments useful to improve soybean under climate warming conditions.

Temporal Changes in Tourists’ Climate-Based Comfort in the Southeastern Coastal Region of Spain

In the context of climate change, where the average temperature has risen in recent decades on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, bioclimatic indicators show an increase in thermal discomfort. This is especially relevant in regions with a clear focus on mass and seasonal sun and beach tourism, with a large number of tourists experiencing discomfort in hot and humid summer environments. The research analyses the temporal evolution (1967–2022) of the coasts of the provinces of Alicante and Murcia (Spain) using the Climate Comfort Index (CCI), divided into four different regions. Used are 14 coastal meteorological observatories divided into four regions. Trend analysis was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MKT) and Theil–Sen (TSE) tests. The results revealed a loss of climate comfort during the summer season (−0.3 to −0.4/decade), as well as an expansion of the warm period toward June and early September, with an increase of 38.7 days in “hot” thermal comfort. The increase in thermal discomfort in the summer is influenced by an increase in average temperature (0.5 to 0.7 °C/decade) and a reduction in the average relative humidity (−1.0 to −2.1%/decade) and wind speed (−0.2 to −0.9 km/h/decade). In the last 22 years (2000–2022), decreases (p ≤ 0.05) have been recorded in July and September (−0.2 to −0.4/decade), reaching “excessive heat” climatic comfort thresholds for the first time. Finally, there has been an increase in thermal comfort in winter, especially during December in recent years (2000–2022).

Fabrication of 3D silicon anode by inkjet printing: Opportunities and challenges

The pressing issue of climate change and the acceleration of global warming have prompted increased concerns about CO2 emissions and the need for sustainable energy solutions. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial in achieving a sustainable and greener future for our planet. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are the most common storage energy systems used in the fabrication of EVs. However, further advancements are needed to improve their energy density, power density, safety, and cost. One promising approach is to replace conventional graphite anodes with silicon, offering higher capacity and environmental friendliness. This study explores the fabrication of three-dimensional (3D) silicon anodes using drop-on-demand (DOD) inkjet printing (IJP), a promising additive manufacturing technique. The formulation of stable aqueous inks for LIB anodes is presented, highlighting their potential for scalable production. The article addresses the difficulties encountered in developing printable inks for DOD IJP and assesses the electrochemical performance of these ink formulations. Inks containing carbon-coated silicon nanoparticles and PEDOT:PSS result in electrodes that attained the cutoff lithiation capacity of 2000mAh gAM−1 with no observed capacity degradation over time. In contrast, anodes composed of pure silicon demonstrate a capacity decay after 75 cycles, proving the advantages of utilizing a Si/Carbon core-shell structure. The printability tests are presented, revealing the instabilities of the drop generation process, and the importance of particle surface chemistry. While it is possible to use IJP with the formulated anode inks, further optimization of the technology is necessary for practical implementation.

Analysis of pressure interval/injection and production frequency on stability of large-scale supercritical CO2 storage in salt caverns

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas, with annual emissions reaching up to 54 billion tons globally, leading to an unprecedented acceleration of global warming. In conjunction with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), which represents the most advanced and efficient technology for energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the innovative concept of CO2 storage in salt caverns, this paper investigates the industrial application potential of supercritical CO2. Herein the feasibility of large-scale storage of supercritical CO2 in salt caverns was investigated, focusing on the stability aspect associated with such storage. Specifically concentrating on the impact of upper and lower injection/production pressures and frequencies on the stability of carbon storage in salt caverns, this study utilizes numerical simulation methods to simulate the creep process that occurs in China's bedded salt formations. Numerical simulation results showed that: 1) From the perspective of salt cavern stability, the volume shrinkage, creep and damage degree of surrounding rock during operation all fall within an acceptable range. Consequently, it is feasible to implement carbon storage in these salt caverns for a during of 100 years. 2) Shortening the range of internal pressure will enhance the stability of salt cavern for carbon storage. Furthermore, different pressure intervals have an impact on the creep concentration position within the cavern, primarily resulting in a transformation between internal contraction of surrounding rock and sediment accumulation caused by floor creep by altering the lower pressure limit. 3) The injection and production frequency of salt cavern carbon storage (SCCS) is characterized by a low occurrence rate (<10 cycles). The stability of the cavern can be enhanced by increasing the injection and production frequency, nevertheless, it is important to note that internal pressure remains the primary factor influencing cavern stability compared to the injection and production frequency.

Expanding the availability of soybean oil for renewable diesel with a high oil–low protein cultivar

AbstractIt is imperative that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decrease rapidly to limit global warming and prevent catastrophic climate change. Renewable diesel fuel, made from vegetable oil, is playing an increasingly important role in reducing emissions in the transportation sector that is hard to electrify (long‐haul trucking, shipping, and aviation). Increasing the use of renewable diesel made from soybean oil will increase the competition for crop land between food and fuel. This conflict could be reduced by the development of a high‐yielding soybean cultivar producing seeds containing very high oil and very low protein concentrations. The well‐known inverse relationships between oil and protein concentrations and protein concentration and yield suggest that development of such a cultivar is possible. A high oil–low protein, high yielding cultivar dedicated to oil production would produce substantially more oil per unit area and reduce the food/fuel conflict.

Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

AbstractMany scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary‐scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard‐to‐mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non‐zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net‐zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events.