Applying the Rumsfeld Matrix: Unknown Unknown Climate Risks in an AMOC Collapse Scenario

Abstract

This paper investigates scientific research using Rumsfeld’s typology to grasp uncertainties in an era of ‘catastrophic climate change and the risk landscape of a ‘2°C-3°C world’. The study highlights the importance of 'unknown unknowns' and the emergence of 'Black Swan' climate events, such as frequent 500-year droughts and discusses how adaptive strategies can be crafted today, building on the “unknown knowns” of the past, such as the Great American Dust Bowl. It emphasizes the need for a structured approach to uncertainty in water resource management, relevant for understanding climate change’s significant impact on water cycles, evident in phenomena like cloudbursts and prolonged droughts. Additionally, research into abrupt climate change, such as the potential mid-century collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed using the Rumsfeld matrix to understand research gaps and generate insights for further study.