Model Of Casualties Research Articles

Analyzing the seismic hazard of Jishishan earthquake based on multi-source data

Abstract. An Ms6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan County, Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Gansu Province on December 18, 2023, which is another strong earthquake event that occurred in the eastern and northeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau after the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022. To determine the spatial characteristics and human casualties of the earthquake, this paper obtains the seismic spatial information based on remote sensing data. The results show that the earthquake has thrust characteristics and is a thrust-type earthquake, in which the line-of-sight deformation of the lifting and falling rail coseismic deformation fields are mainly uplifted, 7.51cm, and 7.91cm respectively. At the same time, the PSO-BiLSTM-Attention population casualty model is proposed, and 149 people are predicted to die, which is 2 people less than the actual 151 people, indicating that the model can well estimate the post-disaster death toll and can be used for the post-disaster death population assessment.

Efficacy and safety of novel freeze-dried plasma products in a porcine combat casualty model.

Hemorrhagic shock is well documented as a leading cause of preventable fatalities among military casualties. During military operations plasma can be transfused while waiting for whole blood. This study was conducted to assess the safety and efficacy of two new freeze-dried plasma formulations in a porcine model of traumatic hemorrhagic shock. In the face of species-specific transfusion, transfusible blood products were derived from porcine sources. The efficacy of three lyophilized plasma (LP) formulations was evaluated: lyophilized plasma (LP), concentrated lyophilized plasma (CLP), and platelet-rich concentrated lyophilized plasma (PCLP). Pigs were subjected to multi-trauma and hemorrhagic shock. Ninety minutes post-shock induction, the animals were treated with one of the three lyophilized products. Monitoring included systolic blood pressure and cardiac output. Point-of-care and laboratory diagnostic tests were used to assess renal function, real-time hemostasis (ROTEM), and coagulation. Histological examinations of kidney, lung, and muscle tissues were conducted 4 h after shock induction. CLP and PCLP significantly improved systolic blood pressure and cardiac output and positively influenced base excess, creatinine, various ROTEM, and coagulation markers compared with standard LP without histologic modification. No adverse effect was associated with the transfusion of any of the plasma products throughout the experimental procedures. Both CLP and PCLP exhibit promising therapeutic potential for managing hemorrhagic shock in scenario where whole blood supplies are limited. However, the distinct physiological and coagulation characteristics of the swine model necessitate further investigation using humanized preclinical models to fully understand their clinical applicability and constraints.

A GIS-Based Damage Evaluation Method for Explosives Road Transportation Accidents

The road transportation of explosives is highly concerning due to its substantial impact on social safety. For the safety management of explosive transportation, e.g., transport route planning and emergency rescue, explosion consequence evaluation is of paramount importance. The consequence evaluation of explosion accidents is affected by many factors, especially spatial features, such as the location of transport vehicles, the distribution of buildings, and the presence of individuals around the road, etc. However, there is still a lack of quantification methods for building damage evaluation, human casualty evaluation that considers real-time population density, and efficient interactive damage evaluation methods. In this paper, we formalize three typical scenarios of damage evaluation for explosive road transportation accidents, i.e., explosion point-based, road segment-based, and route-based damage evaluation. For each scenario, we propose a Height-aware Hierarchical Building Damage (HHBD) model and a Shelter-aware Human Casualty (SHC) model for building damage evaluation and human casualty evaluation, respectively. We also develop a GIS-based interactive visualization platform that integrates multi-source geospatial data and that enables efficient geospatial computation. In addition, a case study of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation in Wuhan is demonstrated in order to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. The research results can support the decision-making process of explosive transportation safety warnings and emergency rescue.

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network.

In China, food-freezing plants that use liquid ammonia, which were established in the suburbs in the 1970s, are being surrounded by urban built-up areas as urbanization progresses. These plants lead to extremely serious casualties in the event of a liquid ammonia leakage. The purpose of this thesis was to explore the key factors of personnel protection failure through the scenario evolution analysis of liquid ammonia leakage. The chain of emergencies and their secondary events were used to portray the evolutionary process of a full scenario of casualties caused by liquid ammonia leakage from three dimensions: disaster, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management. A Bayesian network model of liquid ammonia leakage casualties based on the scenario chain was constructed, and key nodes in the network were derived by examining the sensitivity of risk factors. Then, this model was applied to a food-freezing plant in Beijing. The results showed that inadequate risk identification capability is a key node in accident prevention; the level of emergency preparedness is closely related to the degree of casualties; the emergency disposal by collaborative onsite and offsite is the key to avoiding mass casualties. A basis for emergency response to the integration of personnel protection is provided.

기업의 환경적 노력과 재무적 성과의 관계

Environmental disclosures entail costs, yet increasingly, large listed firms are making higher and better quality disclosures. The purpose of this study is to examine the link between a firm’s environmental effort and financial performance. Specifically, this study investigates the direction of the casual relationship between the environmental disclosures and return on sales in logistics industry. Drawing on literature streams in socio-political theory, legitimacy theory, resource-based view, and voluntary disclosure theory, this study develops and tests the Ganger casualty model of relationships between constructs that form the basis of the proposed theories. Conducting an empirical study of 154 Korean listed firms in logistics industry, this study provides empirical evidences for the direction of the casual relationship between environmental effort and financial performance. Empirical results of this study show that past profitability drives current environmental disclosures. Further analysis reveals that firms that make higher financial performance have higher environmental effort. These findings are consistent with the voluntary disclosure theory and the resource based view of the firm, suggesting that firms with greater economic resources make more extensive environmental disclosures which yield net positive profitability.

Effect of urban street trees on pedestrian safety: A micro-level pedestrian casualty model using multivariate Bayesian spatial approach

In the past decades, trees were considered roadside hazard. Street trees were removed to provide clear zone and improve roadside safety. Nowadays, street trees are considered to play an important role in urban design. Also, street tree is considered a traffic calming measure. Studies have examined the effects of urban street trees on driver perception, driving behaviour, and general road safety. However, it is rare that the relationship between urban street trees and pedestrian safety is investigated. In this study, a micro-level frequency model is established to evaluate the effects of tree density and tree canopy cover on pedestrian injuries, accounting for pedestrian crash exposure based on comprehensive pedestrian count data from a state in Australia, Melbourne. In addition, effects of road geometry, traffic characteristics, and temporal distribution are also considered. Furthermore, effects of spatial dependency and correlation between pedestrian casualty counts of different injury severity levels are accounted using a multivariate Bayesian spatial approach. Results indicate that road width, bus stop, tram station, on-street parking, and 85th percentile speed are positively associated with pedestrian casualty. In contrast, pedestrian casualty decreases when there is a pedestrian crosswalk and increases in tree density and canopy. Also, time variation in pedestrian injury risk is significant. To sum up, urban street trees should have favorable effect on pedestrian safety. Findings are indicative to optimal policy strategies that can enhance the walking environment and overall pedestrian safety. Therefore, sustainable urban and transport development can be promoted.

A Prediction Model of Casualties Based on Machine Learning for Selection of Fire Scenario

This study has developed a model that predicts casualties (dead and injured people) using the Classification And Regression Tree (CART). Based on the fire statistics collected over a decade, this model aims to select the appropriate risk-assessment scenarios and fire prevention and safety methods applicable on individual buildings. Our evaluation indicates that this CART model can accurately predict 48 scenarios based on 5 variables related to the types of fire, fire growth rates, and evacuation situations, and calculate the corresponding probabilities for each occurrence. This model is expected to improve future quantitative fire risk assessments.

INVESTIGATING THE CAUSAL LINKAGE AMONG ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES

The present study aims to explore the causal relationship among economic growth energy consumption and urbanization and environmental quality in ASEAN-5 countries. The current study conduct time series analysis in ASEAN-5 countries using the granger casualty model consisting data set from 1980 to 2018. The outcomes of the present study reveals that the energy consumption urban population granger cause to CO2 emission in ASEAN-5 countries. The study suggested that ASEAN-5 should reduce the utilization of fossil fuel based energy and induct robust policies towards augmenting the adeptness of renewable energy and energy-usage programs to condense redundant energy waste. Keywords: Economic growth, energy consumption, environmental quality, CO2 emission, environmental sustainability, ASEAN-5 JEL Classifications: F64, N75, O13 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11213

Developing GIS-based earthquake loss model: a case study of Baqiao District, China

Large earthquakes frequently occurred and caused substantial damage and losses in Chinese densely populated urban areas. It is worth clarifying that the existing earthquake loss assessment tools in China do not consider its special characteristics (e.g., tectonics, geology and building inventory). In this paper, an integrated framework for earthquake loss assessment in China is proposed and a geographic information system (GIS)-based system, referred to as China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System, is developed. The individual building is considered as the basic geographical unit and described in three levels (i.e., basic attributes, structural performance parameters, and functional parameters. A three-step data collection method is proposed, and the mobile GIS-based field collection tool is developed. A broad, reasonable, and upgradeable building typology is then presented for the seismic fragility assessment of building blocks. A new economic loss model and casualty model are also presented by considering the characteristics of economics and population. The proposed methodology is implemented in Baqiao District, and the estimation of economic losses and casualties under a scenario earthquake is discussed, which can provide information for urban disaster risk assessment and mitigation.

Factors influencing casualty risk in the 14th November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand earthquake

The November 14, 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes to occur in New Zealand in the past 100 years and resulted in two deaths and 618 injuries. Understanding the context and cause of casualties from earthquakes is important for informing risk reduction activities such as building codes, education of protective actions, and casualty modelling. Data on casualties (deaths and injuries) from the Kaikōura earthquake were sourced from New Zealand's publicly funded accidental injury insurance scheme. Casualties were compared to a control group of uninjured people using a case-control design. Odds ratios were calculated through multivariate logistic regression to quantify the influence of individual, seismological and contextual factors on casualty risk. Females were twice as likely to be injured than males, and injury risk increased 30% with every 10 year increase in age. People were 2.9 times more likely to be injured if they were in non-residential buildings, and injury risk increased 2.2 times for every unit increase in MMI shaking intensity. Thirty-seven percent of casualties were from falls, 44% were from actions of people during shaking and 8% were due to being hit by contents. Nine percent of people were injured after shaking stopped during evacuations, or clean-up. The results indicate that in regions with a well-regulated building industry with modern building codes such as New Zealand, casualties are dominated by non-fatal injuries, and the number of these injuries are determined by the behaviour of individuals during and immediately following earthquake shaking.

Optimization of the Casualties' Treatment Process: Blended Military Experiment.

At the battalion level, NATO ROLE1 medical treatment command focuses on the provision of primary health care being the very first physician and higher medical equipment intervention for casualty treatments. ROLE1 has paramount importance in casualty reductions, representing a complex system in current operations. This study deals with an experiment on the optimization of ROLE1 according to the key parameters of the numbers of physicians, the number of ambulances and the distance between ROLE1 and the current battlefield. The very first step in this study is to design and implement a model of current battlefield casualties. The model uses friction data generated from an already executed computer assisted exercise (CAX) while employing a constructive simulation to produce offense and defense scenarios on the flow of casualties. The next step in the study is to design and implement a model representing the transportation to ROLE1, its structure and behavior. The deterministic model of ROLE1, employing a system dynamics simulation paradigm, uses the previously generated casualty flows as the inputs representing human decision-making processes through the recorder CAX events. A factorial experimental design for the ROLE1 model revealed the recommended variants of the ROLE1 structure for both offensive and defensive operations. The overall recommendation is for the internal structure of ROLE1 to have three ambulances and three physicians for any kind of current operation and any distance between ROLE1 and the current battlefield within the limit of 20 min. This study provides novelty in the methodology of casualty estimations involving human decision-making factors as well as the optimization of medical treatment processes through experimentation with the process model.

Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru

This paper presents the application of a rigorous probabilistic framework that estimates the number, severity, and distribution of casualties over a region. A brief summary of the model is included in this paper. The application is for casualties resulting from a Mw 8.8 earthquake scenario occurring on the sub-duction fault along the coastline of Lima, Peru. The case study demonstrates an application of the casualty model, including the procedures for acquiring the required information, the selection of model parameters, and a step-by-step explanation of the model-solving algorithms. The model provides an estimate of the joint probability distribution of multiseverity casualties, including spatial and across-severity correlations. This paper also shows how the model can be useful for (1) estimating 90th-percentile casualties, (2) identifying unsafe communities and structural typologies, and (3) providing evidence to support hospital collaboration policies across different districts to increase the patient treatment reliability. Additionally, the results demonstrate that empirical fatality prediction methodologies can underestimate fatality rates in countries with scarce and outdated fatality data.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

BackgroundA comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences.MethodsAn innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.Resultsthe integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard.ConclusionThe proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Evidence of reduced vulnerability to tropical cyclones in the Republic of Korea

On average, three tropical cyclones (TCs) affect the Republic of Korea each year, causing extensive damage. To alleviate the TC-induced disasters, the Korean government has invested nearly 4% of its annual budget in recent decades in prevention efforts; however, the effectiveness of this costly program has not been evaluated. This study determined whether any evidence shows a reduced vulnerability to TCs in Korea over 1979–2010 by utilizing multi-linear regression. Homelessness, casualties, and property losses were individually examined. These explained variables were normalized into the socio-economic circumstances of 2005 before the regression to eliminate the effect of changing exposure by dealing with population and wealth at provincial levels. Three potential explanatory variables based on nationwide weather-station data were considered, including the maximum wind, maximum rainfall, and number of affected stations over each TC’s damaging period. In addition, the annual per capita income, showing a quasi-linear increasing tendency, was used as an additional explanatory variable to examine how vulnerability is altered. The results revealed that each empirical model of homelessness, casualties, and property losses can account for 47%, 57%, and 57% of each variance, respectively, which is highest when considering all four explanatory variables. Consistently negative coefficients of the per capita income terms for all damage types suggest that the vulnerability to TCs has been significantly reduced. This finding appears to be partly the result of the national prevention effort, although it also can be attributed to other unintended adaptation factors, such as building codes, industrial structures, and land use.

Multi hazard vulnerability analysis: The casualty model and its implementation

The frequent occurrence of damaging natural and technological hazards clearly demonstrates the urgent need of study of multi-hazards vulnerability assessment methods to effectively reduce the impact of multi hazards in the built envirenment. This study presents the Multi Hazard Casualty Model (MHCM). Two types of hazards will be assessed, namely earthquake and fire following earthquake. Our objective in this paper is to present the casualty model, to analyse the applicability of casualty model for the assessment of multi-hazards vulnerability of building and human with a GIS-based Analysis. Methods used in this paper are based on theoretical approach and documentation. The approach used for casualty model is based on semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis. The analytical vulnerability model use building damage and consequential triggering hazard (e. g. fire) for the evaluation of human casualties. An attempt to develop casualty model based on interactions among hazards and/or domino effects. To this task is to correlate second hazard casualties directly with triggering hazard. The focus is on indicating hazard relations to understand how potential hazards of various degrees and magnitudes might result in MHCM. It incorporated considerations for multiple and cumulative hazards occurrences into the overall assessment framework and methodology. Triggering (domino) effects, and building vulnerability are two major factors that can lead to effected casualties in MHCM. The model is implicated with data collected in a part of Shiraz City. The casualty model shows that structural failure is the primary cause of earthquake built environment casualties and that physical damage potential should be the foundation of estimation fire followind earthquake casualty. Other factors should also be integrated. In the present study has been done to present the casualty model and to analyse the applicability of casualty model for the assessment of multi-hazards vulnerability of building and human.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

Abstract. Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Web-based spatiotemporal simulation modeling and visualization of tsunami inundation and potential human response

Modeling spatiotemporal phenomena can provide insight into potential behavior of simulated objects during hypothetical events. Simulation frameworks can be a useful method of modeling these scenarios, and become more flexible when developed in a fashion that facilitates automated generation of output based on variable input parameters. By connecting a simulation framework to a web-based system, a user can assign input parameters of their choosing, run a simulation, and explore the output data in a dynamic, animated, map-based context using a standard web browser. The framework described here utilizes tsunami simulation data and user input to generate a combined web-based visualization and simulation model of human response to tsunami inundation. Input parameters pertaining to human population and community of interest are provided by the user and guide automated development of a simulation model scenario of spatiotemporal human response to a hypothetical tsunami inundation event. Simulated human movement is calculated at each time step using casualty model algorithms informed by behavioral research and variables such as water depth and road networks, while a mix of server-side and client-side code renders the mapping interface and supports user interaction within the web browser. Interactive controls included in the web-based simulation viewer allow the user to manipulate the map display and query underlying data either manually by time step or interactively while animation is underway. Although modeling of human movement has inherent limitations, integration of a formal casualty model with the automated simulation framework represents a unique quantitative approach for casualty determination and simulation modeling.

Macro Models of Casualties in Road Transport / Modelowanie Strat Osobowych W Transporcie Drogowym

Abstract To ensure that road transport safety measures are effective and efficient, forecast tools should be applied to help with strategic decision-making. Models of road safety measures provide such tools. The paper presents a proposed macro model of road accident casualties. The proposed models of road accident fatalities are built from a database covering more than fifty countries worldwide. The concepts of model design can be used for developing factor-based models to describe strategic societal risk on the road networks of selected countries worldwide. One of the concepts was applied to model the number of road accident fatalities. The analyses used Smeed’s model and its modifications developed for the needs of this analysis.

Telephone triage is not the answer to ED overcrowding

Yusuf Nagree, Peter Cameron, Andrew Gosbell and David Mountain Emergency Department, Fremantle Hospital, Fremantle, School of Primary, Aboriginal and Rural Health Care, University of Western Australia, Department of Emergency Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Emergency Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, and Policy and Research, Australasian College for Emergency Medicine, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

(A144) Health Status Casualty Model for Simulation of Crisis Management Activities (EU SICMA Project)

IntroductionThe European Project SICMA (Simulation of Crisis Management Activities) provides a modeling of the behavior of the entire Health Service System during field emergency operations, as well as the rules it operates by. The first step toward chain procedure modelling in the management of major emergencies is the representation of a traumatized patient whose health status can be followed in time during simulation. Since management of the trauma patient follows criteria of stabilization of main physiological functions, a trauma patient model was developed based on fundamental pathophysiological functions independently of specific lesion characterization. Methods: Each patient's health status was modelled according to 5 parameters (ATLS): A(airway), B(breathing), C(circulatory), D(disability), E(Exposure). Patient samples are extracted from a 10.000.000 patient database, generated by considering real anatomical lesions compatible with type and severity of considered scenarios (explosion, building collapse, fire, gunfight). Simulated lesion characteristics were then converted to pathophysiological parameters. Each physiological compensation parameter was represented by: (1) baseline value expressed as percentage of altered function; (2) function reduction rate over time, obtained by a mathematical approximation of clinical worsening. From level of function, rate of worsening and function-specific death thresholds, estimated time-to-death according to sustained damage is computed.ResultsThis model allows simulation of evolution of patient health status both in absence of medical care, but also under therapy, in terms of immediate increment of each single parameter (“temporary” treatment), and of reduction or zeroing of parameter dec14rement rate (“definitive” treatment).ConclusionThis model, based on evaluation of physiological parameters, presents an advantage over the consideration of single lesions, because simulating logical procedures that guide treatment choice in real situations can provide a more accurate assessment of casualities for those actors assigned to management of major emergencies.