Multi hazard vulnerability analysis: The casualty model and its implementation

Abstract

The frequent occurrence of damaging natural and technological hazards clearly demonstrates the urgent need of study of multi-hazards vulnerability assessment methods to effectively reduce the impact of multi hazards in the built envirenment. This study presents the Multi Hazard Casualty Model (MHCM). Two types of hazards will be assessed, namely earthquake and fire following earthquake. Our objective in this paper is to present the casualty model, to analyse the applicability of casualty model for the assessment of multi-hazards vulnerability of building and human with a GIS-based Analysis. Methods used in this paper are based on theoretical approach and documentation. The approach used for casualty model is based on semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis. The analytical vulnerability model use building damage and consequential triggering hazard (e. g. fire) for the evaluation of human casualties. An attempt to develop casualty model based on interactions among hazards and/or domino effects. To this task is to correlate second hazard casualties directly with triggering hazard. The focus is on indicating hazard relations to understand how potential hazards of various degrees and magnitudes might result in MHCM. It incorporated considerations for multiple and cumulative hazards occurrences into the overall assessment framework and methodology. Triggering (domino) effects, and building vulnerability are two major factors that can lead to effected casualties in MHCM. The model is implicated with data collected in a part of Shiraz City. The casualty model shows that structural failure is the primary cause of earthquake built environment casualties and that physical damage potential should be the foundation of estimation fire followind earthquake casualty. Other factors should also be integrated. In the present study has been done to present the casualty model and to analyse the applicability of casualty model for the assessment of multi-hazards vulnerability of building and human.