Abstract
BackgroundA comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences.MethodsAn innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.Resultsthe integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard.ConclusionThe proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.
Highlights
Despite immense efforts invested in disaster risk reduction around the world, earthquakes continue to claim a heavy toll and remain the deadliest natural disaster worldwide, as demonstrated in recent events such as the 2010 Haiti and 2015 Nepal earthquakes [1,2,3].Dense urban population centers are known as highly vulnerable in this context [4]
Meta-analysis of risk factors related to injury and death in earthquakes
Age was the strongest factor increasing the risk of death in earthquakes, followed by socioeconomic status, physical disability and gender
Summary
Despite immense efforts invested in disaster risk reduction around the world, earthquakes continue to claim a heavy toll and remain the deadliest natural disaster worldwide, as demonstrated in recent events such as the 2010 Haiti and 2015 Nepal earthquakes [1,2,3].Dense urban population centers are known as highly vulnerable in this context [4]. Data gathered from epidemiological studies, demonstrates repeatedly that certain risk factors such as gender, age, and physical disability increase vulnerability to earthquakes’ adverse consequences. This increase is more dramatic in developing countries that lack the resources to support and augment disaster preparedness and response efforts, adding socioeconomic status as another risk factor in this regard [5,6,7]. A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences
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