Arizona Case Study Research Articles

A 43-year Evaluation of a Prescribed Fire: an Arizona Case Study

We evaluated the effects of a prescribed fire in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest intermittently over 43 years. Changing climatic (precipitation) conditions spanned this evaluation with a sequential pattern of annual precipitation regimes above average, average, and below average (drought conditions) encompassed. The original objective of the fire to consume three-fourths of the litter and duff layers to reduce the water-holding capacities of these layers was initially met. Although nearly 50 % of the basal area of the pre-fire tree overstory was lost in the burn, basal area was approaching 90 % of the pre-fire level 43 yr following the fire. We attributed the lack of ponderosa pine reproduction after 43 yr to the litter and duff layers returning to pre-fire conditions. Annual herbage production increased for a while following the fire but then decreased with the increasing tree overstory and litter and duff layers following the burn. Within the context of the changing climatic (precipitation) conditions encountered, the results of this evaluation indicate that prescribed burning at intervals less than the 43 yr evaluation period are required to sustain the effects of this prescribed fire.

Structured Public Involvement in Context-Sensitive Noise Wall Design Using Casewise Visual Evaluation

The research team extended its structured public involvement (SPI) protocol to the field of context-sensitive noise wall design. Subject to a minimum sound attenuation capacity, noise walls must present a pleasing visual aspect to their user communities including residents, commuters, and others. This paper details the casewise visual evaluation (CAVE) methodology and discusses its application to a context-sensitive noise wall design in Arizona. The research team designed a fuzzy logic nonlinear modeling process, CAVE, that predicts group preference for specific designs even when such designs have not been created. CAVE offers significant advantages over current visual assessment methods such as the visual preference survey. Key noise wall design parameters, including height, topological variation, color value, plant coverage, and plant complexity, were identified by landscape architecture experts. Group preferences were gathered rapidly, anonymously, and fairly from a focus group by using electronic polling technology to evaluate digital images of samples and potential designs. Highest preference was achieved with berm-type walls combining medium-value, smooth stone featuring a basic pattern with undulating topographic variation and a higher degree of plant complexity. A range of nonlinear preference variations in response to changes in value and plant complexity were noted. Other preferred designs were documented for this context-specific Arizona case study. The advantages of the SPI process using CAVE and obstacles in its implementation are discussed.

Structured Public Involvement in Context-Sensitive Noise Wall Design Using Casewise Visual Evaluation

The research team extended its structured public involvement (SPI) protocol to the field of context-sensitive noise wall design. Subject to a minimum sound attenuation capacity, noise walls must present a pleasing visual aspect to their user communities including residents, commuters, and others. This paper details the casewise visual evaluation (CAVE) methodology and discusses its application to a context-sensitive noise wall design in Arizona. The research team designed a fuzzy logic nonlinear modeling process, CAVE, that predicts group preference for specific designs even when such designs have not been created. CAVE offers significant advantages over current visual assessment methods such as the visual preference survey. Key noise wall design parameters, including height, topological variation, color value, plant coverage, and plant complexity, were identified by landscape architecture experts. Group preferences were gathered rapidly, anonymously, and fairly from a focus group by using electronic polling technology to evaluate digital images of samples and potential designs. Highest preference was achieved with berm-type walls combining medium-value, smooth stone featuring a basic pattern with undulating topographic variation and a higher degree of plant complexity. A range of nonlinear preference variations in response to changes in value and plant complexity were noted. Other preferred designs were documented for this context-specific Arizona case study. The advantages of the SPI process using CAVE and obstacles in its implementation are discussed.

Effective Post-PLRA Settlement Models: A Case Study of Arizona's Protective Segregation Lawsuit

Effective Post-PLRA Settlement Models: A Case Study of Arizona's Protective Segregation Lawsuit

The Impact of Indian Casinos on State Lotteries: A Case Study of Arizona

Gambling is a rapidly growing industry with competing private, public, and Native American tribal interests. To examine the effects of this competition, the authors outline a simple econometric model for assessing substitution between lottery games and other forms of gambling. They estimate the model to examine whether an expansion in Indian casino gaming in Arizona is associated with a decline in lottery revenues. The findings imply that there is indeed a substitution effect.

Fuzzified effect of ENSO and macrocirculation patterns on precipitation: an Arizona case study

A fuzzy rule-based model (FRBM) is developed to analyse local monthly precipitation events conditioned on macrocirculation patterns and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A case study in Arizona is presented to illustrate the methodology. The inputs of the FRBM are those Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values which have high absolute lag correlation with monthly Arizona precipitation and the frequencies of all circulation patterns (CPs) in a given month; the output of the model is an estimate of local monthly precipitation. After analysing the basic properties of the precipitation events, fuzzy rules are constructed, and then the results are interpreted and compared with those of a multivariate linear regression model. Using two goodness-of-fit criteria, first, the root mean squared error (RMSE) and then the correlation between the model results and the observed values, the FRBM is found to perform better than the multiple linear regression model for the Arizona case investigated. The results show that the FRBM can provide a good basis for future work to downscale general circulation model results to study local precipitation under climate change. The results of using only SOI lags or CP frequencies as inputs, which are also presented here, clearly show how much the results are improved using both inputs jointly instead of only one. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society.

A multi-objective fuzzy classification of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns for precipitation modeling

A multi-objective fuzzy rule-based classification (MOFRBC) technique is applied in order to cluster and classify daily large scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and analyze the relationship between the CPs and local precipitation. The methodology is illustrated by means of an Arizona case study. For this purpose, three indices are calculated to measure the information content of the clustering method in terms of predicted precipitation. A thorough sensitivity analysis is provided to gain more understanding on the robustness of MOFRBC model. Furthermore, it is shown that extending the daily premises to two-day and three-day sequences of CPs improves the information content of the classification. The results are also compared with the original subjective clustering. For the Arizona case study MOFRBC seems to be a competitive technique with the advantage that the physical aspects can be better represented by fuzzy rules (which tend to mimic the human way of decision making) than by objective methods.

Politics and implementation of criminal justice policy among county justice agencies: an arizona case study

In this get-tough-on-crime era there is an emphasis on arresting, prosecuting, and sentencing people who engage in illegal behavior. But a large percent of those arrested are never brought to trial because they have not been served with warrants commanding them to appear for trial. This is a classic case of implementation failure. It is a structural rather than a bureaucratic problem that cannot be resolved because of the way American county government and politics are structured. This study describes the situation in Maricopa County, Arizona, discusses recommendations for alleviating it and the implications for implementation theory.

Linkage between the occurrence of daily atmospheric circulation patterns and floods: an Arizona case study

The daily occurrence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) is linked with the partial duration series of floods, using a case study in Central Arizona (USA) to illustrate the approach. The probabilistic linkage is evaluated by means of two performance indices, relating flood occurrence, observed CP occurrence before floods and purely random count of CPs. Three seasons (summer, autumn and winter) are distinguished, and CPs are grouped into two flood-producing groups year round, and two more such groups in winter. Floods in five watersheds, whose areas range from 900 to 15 000 km 2, are analyzed for the period 1940–1980. The number of days N to be considered before the flood day is investigated using the first performance index, yielding a value of 1–3 days. The two performance indices appear to measure the linkage in a suitable way, especially in the autumn and winter seasons. The first index, measuring the ratio of percentage of floods explained by the two (or four) groups of flood-producing CPs to the percentage of CPs in the population, is well above 1.5. The second index, measuring the probability of at least k days out of N with CP type i before the flood day, is considerably greater than the corresponding binomial or Bernoulli value. Results for summer, when precipitation stem from convective storms, are not as clear-cut. In any case, this method makes it possible to study the effect of non-stationarities in the time series of CPs, and results should improve when daily precipitation or at least daily flows are considered.

Investigating the Context of State-Level Policy Formation: A Case Study of Arizona’s Bilingual Education Legislation

This study presents the application of a set of concepts devised by Mitchell, Marshall, and Wirt (1985) for investigating the distinctive cultures of state educational policy-making. In this study, an interpretation of the events leading to the passage in 1984 of Arizona’s new bilingual education legislation is developed, primarily from interviews with key actors. The central question addressed is whether a more comprehensive or mandatory law could have been achieved in Arizona.

Investigating the Context of State-Level Policy Formation: A Case Study of Arizona's Bilingual Education Legislation

Investigating the Context of State-Level Policy Formation: A Case Study of Arizona's Bilingual Education Legislation

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ANALYTIC APPROACHVERSUSSIMULATION / Sédimentation des réservoirs en cas de l'incertitude: méthode analytique contre la méthode par simulation

Abstract Two methods are presented of estimating accumulated sediment yield stemming from erosion in a semiarid climate during a given time span, and the methods are compared from the viewpoint of the economic consequences evaluated within a Bayesian framework. The design of reservoirs requires the estimation of the random sediment volume Z accumulated over the lifetime of the project. An analytic and a simulation method are used to estimate the density function of Z and to calculate an economically optimal sediment storage space D*. A case study in Arizona, USA, is used to illustrate the methodology for the typical situation when only rainfall records are available. Both methods prove to be superior to the traditional procedure leaning on mean values. For the example considered, the two methods yield commensurate results. It appears that, in a semiarid basin, the effect of parameter uncertainty on both Z and D* may be considerably higher than that of natural uncertainty.

Book Review: Water Supplies and Economic Growth in an Arid Environment: An Arizona Case Study

Book Review: Water Supplies and Economic Growth in an Arid Environment: An Arizona Case Study

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:The Environmental, Economic and Social Significance of Drought. Edited by J. V. LOVETTLivestock and Meat Marketing. By JOHN McCoy.Water Supplies and Economic Growth in an Arid Environment; An Arizona Case Study. By MAURICE M. KELSU, WILLIAM E. MARTIN and LAWRENCE E. MACK.Dissent on Development: Studies and Debates in Development Economics. By P. T. BAUERThe Theory of the Firm. Edited by G. C. ARCHIBALD.Making Decisions. By D. V. LINDLEY.

BOOK REVIEWS

Book review in this ArticleDynamics of Fluids m Porous Media, by Jacob Bear.Quantitative Methods for Preliminary Design of Water Quality Surveillance Systems, by Charles G. Beckers, Stanley G. Chamberlain, and G. Paul GrimsrudWater Supplies and Economic Growth in an Arid Environment, an Arizona Case Study, by Maurice M. Kelso, William E. Martin and Lawrence E. Mack.

Some Environmental Effects of Rural Subdividing in An Arid Area: A Case Study in Arizona

Abstract Graded roads which are commonly associated with rural land developments have created some rather serious effects on the environment of the arid and semi-arid regions of the United States. This type of development is particularly serious since it destroys the land's meager plant-cover and thereby exposes the dry soil to the wind. This exposed surface provides a potential source of accentuated dust pollution. Field observations show that rural subdividing may be a source of much of the dust which becomes airborne, causing air pollution beyond the natural quantity resident in the atmosphere. The problem could be alleviated somewhat by constructive land-use regulation which restricts the development of graded roads, thereby reducing the sources of accentuated dust pollution in unpopulated regions in rural areas of the arid zone. Field observations show that this practice of rural subdividing has been allowed to continue in spite of the undesirable effects upon the land.