Case Notification Research Articles

Tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala)-A protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi.

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally.

Towards malaria elimination: a reflection about digital notification modules to improve malaria cases notification speed and follow-up in the Brazilian Amazon region

BackgroundHealth information systems (HIS) are a pivotal element in epidemiological surveillance. In Brazil, malaria persists as a public health challenge, with 99% of its occurrences concentrated in the Amazon region, where cases are reported through the HIS Sivep-Malaria. Recent technological advancements indicate that case notifications can be expedited through more efficient systems with broader coverage. The objective of this study is to analyse opportunities for notification within Sivep-Malaria and explore the implementation of mobile electronic devices and applications to enhance the performance of malaria case notifications and use.MethodsThis descriptive study analyses data on malaria-positive cases in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004 to 2022. Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System (Sivep-Malaria) data were used. The Brazilian Amazon region area is approximately 5 million km2 across nine different states in Brazil. Data entry opportunities were assessed by considering the time difference between the 'date of data entry' and the 'date of notification.' Descriptive statistics, including analyses of means and medians, were conducted across the entire Amazon region, and for indigenous population villages and gold mining areas.ResultsBetween 2004 and 2022, 6,176,878 new malaria cases were recorded in Brazil. The average data entry opportunity throughout the period was 17.9 days, with a median of 8 days. The most frequently occurring value was 1 day, and 99% of all notifications were entered within 138 days, with 75.0% entered within 20 days after notification. The states with the poorest data entry opportunities were Roraima and Tocantins, with averages of 31.3 and 31.0 days, respectively. For indigenous population villages and gold mining areas, the median data entry opportunities were 23 and 15 days, respectively.ConclusionsIn malaria elimination, where surveillance is a primary strategy for evaluating each reported case, reducing notification time, enhancing data quality and being able to follow-up cases through computerized reports offer significant benefits for cases investigation. Technological improvements in Sivep-Malaria could yield substantial benefits for malaria control in Brazil, aiding the country in achieving disease elimination and fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals.

Esporotricose felina: Sinais clínicos e prevenção em animais e humanos

Sporotrichosis is a mycosis caused by the fungus Sporothrix sp, which is found in plants, trees, and soil, associated with decomposing plant remains. The disease can affect various species, especially felines which, in turn, are the main transmitters of sporotrichosis to humans. Infection by Sporothrix sp. occurs through contact between injured skin and surfaces contaminated with the fungus, or scratching or biting by diseased animals. In addition to the skin manifestation, sporotrichosis can also occur in extracutaneous form, affecting multiple organs such as the lungs, lymph nodes, liver, spleen and kidneys. There is no preventive vaccine for the disease and it is treated with synthetic fungistatic agents with a broad spectrum of antifungal activity. Sporotrichosis is considered one of the most relevant mycoses in veterinary medicine and an underdiagnosed zoonosis, mainly due to the lack of control and prevention initiatives, which consequently leads to a lack of public awareness. In the states of Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro and in some cities in states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais Bahia, Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba have compulsory notification of cases. Since December 1, 2020, the notification of sporotrichosis in dogs and cats has become mandatory in the city of São Paulo. The purpose of this review is to emphasize that sporotrichosis is an emerging zoonosis that is underdiagnosed in Brazil. Information and publicity campaigns are needed to reinforce the importance of treatment and the potential for a cure, as well as effective educational measures related to public health programs for the control of human and animal sporotrichosis. Responsible pet ownership campaigns, which emphasize the importance of neutering and restricting street access, are of paramount importance for the epidemiological control of the disease. Veterinarians have a fundamental role to play in guiding the guardian, emphasizing that the lack of treatment, in addition to causing great suffering to the affected animal, can contribute to the spread of the disease, including to humans.

Association between ambient temperature and risk of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2011 to 2019

ABSTRACT Previous studies on temperature and infectious diseases primarily focused on individual disease types, yielding inconsistent conclusions. This study collected monthly data on notifiable infectious disease cases and meteorological variables across 7 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases within each province, and random meta-analysis was applied to evaluate the pooled effect. Extreme hot temperature (the 97.5th percentile) was positively associated with the risk of respiratory infectious diseases with the relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.01–2.08). Conversely, extreme cold temperature (the 2.5th percentile) was negatively associated with intestinal infectious diseases and zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases, reporting RRs of 0.43 (95%CI: 0.30–0.60) and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.38–0.57), respectively. This study described the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases with different transmission routes, informing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for temperature-related infectious diseases.

Mapping TB incidence across districts in Uganda to inform health program activities.

Identifying spatial variation in TB burden can help national TB programs effectively allocate resources to reach and treat all people with TB. However, data limitations pose challenges for subnational TB burden estimation. We developed a small-area modeling approach using geo-positioned prevalence survey data, case notifications, and geospatial covariates to simultaneously estimate spatial variation in TB incidence and case notification completeness across districts in Uganda from 2016-2019. TB incidence was estimated using 1) cluster-level data from the national 2014-2015 TB prevalence survey transformed to incidence, and 2) case notifications adjusted for geospatial covariates of health system access. The case notification completeness surface was fit jointly using observed case notifications and estimated incidence. Estimated pulmonary TB incidence among adults varied >10-fold across Ugandan districts in 2019. Case detection increased nationwide from 2016 to 2019, and the number of districts with case detection rates >70% quadrupled. District-level estimates of TB incidence were five times more precise than a model using TB prevalence survey data alone. A joint spatial modeling approach provides useful insights for TB program operation, outlining areas where TB incidence estimates are highest and health programs should concentrate their efforts. This approach can be applied in many countries with high TB burden.

Drastic reduction in the notification of acute cases of Chagas disease in the Northeast region of Brazil. Epidemiological evaluation in the period 2001–2021

Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi), is a neglected disease endemic to some Latin American countries, including Brazil. Soon after infection, individuals develop an acute phase, which in most cases is asymptomatic and may go undetected. However, when CD is detected early, notification in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), is mandatory. This study aimed to evaluate the information registered in the SINAN database and to determine the epidemiological profile of acute CD in Northeast Brazil, an endemic region, from 2001 to 2021. According to this survey, 1,444 cases of acute CD were reported in the Northeastern region of Brazil during this period. During the first six years, referred to as period 1, 90.24% of the notifications were registered, while the number of notifications significantly decreased in the subsequent years, referred to as period 2. Most individuals diagnosed with acute CD were Afro-Brazilian adults. All known routes of infection by the parasite were reported. Vector-borne transmission was predominant during period 1 (73.29%) and oral transmission during period 2 (58.87%). All nine states in Northeast Brazil reported cases in both periods. A higher incidence of disease was reported in Rio Grande do Norte (RN) during period 1, and in Maranhão (MA) during period 2. Our results show that CD remains a significant public health challenge.

Epidemiology and outcomes of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases notified in a low-resource district in Kerala, India 2017–2021 – A 5-year retrospective analysis

Objectives: Kasaragod district reports the highest drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) case notification rates in Kerala. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Kasaragod to describe the DR-TB cases notified from January 2017 to December 2021 and to identify the factors associated with unfavorable treatment outcomes in DR-TB patients. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the programmatic data from the “Nikshay portal” (a web-based patient management information system for [TB] under the National TB Elimination Program), DR-TB treatment cards, and treatment registers available with the district TB center for all the DR-TB patients notified during the study period. We described the DR-TB cases by year, local self-government area (the local administrative setup), age, gender, income level, and treatment outcomes. We compared sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical factors among the DR-TB patients with favorable (cured and treatment completed) and unfavorable (died, lost to follow-up, and treatment failure) treatment outcomes. Results: From January 2017 to December 2021, 128 DR-TB cases were notified from Kasaragod. Annual notification rates varied from 1.4 to 3.4/100,000 population with the highest notification in 2019. The proportion of new TB cases notified tested for drug sensitivity rose from 22% in 2017 to 86% in 2021. Seven of 41 local self-government areas had not notified DR-TB cases during 2017–2021. The notification was higher in inter-state border areas and the coastal belt of the district. The notification of DR-TB cases was highest among the 45–59 age group (17/100,000), followed by the 60 above group (11/100,000). Males and those living below the poverty line had higher notification rates. Among the outcomes evaluated 118 DR-TB patients, 89 (75.4%) had favorable outcomes, whereas the remaining 24.6% had unfavorable outcomes (death 18 [15.3%], loss to follow-up 7 [6%], and treatment failure 4 [3.4%]). Age more than 45 years adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–8.8), income category below the poverty line aOR 6 (95% CI 1.2–28.6), admitted at least twice during treatment aOR 9.2 (95% CI 2.8–30.3), and body mass index at diagnosis <18.5 kg/m2 aOR 3 (95% CI 1.1–10.3) were found to be significantly associated with unfavorable treatment outcomes. Conclusion: DR-TB notifications have increased in the Kasaragod district from 2017 to 2021, with a high burden among males aged 45 years and above. The favorable treatment outcome is better than the national and state average. Regular monitoring and follow-up of multidrug-resistant patients with low incomes, above 45 years, and underweight may improve the final treatment outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in a Small-Sized Municipality in Ceará State, Brazil: Temporal and Spatial Evolution.

Data on the temporal and spatial evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and local control measures and their effects on morbidity and mortality patterns in rural Brazil are scarce. We analyzed the data from case notification systems, epidemiological investigation reports, and municipal decrees in Itapajé, a small municipality in Ceará State in northeast Brazil. For spatial and spatio-temporal analyses, cases and deaths were mapped. There were a total of 3020 cases of COVID-19, recorded between April 2020 and December 2021; 135 (4.5%) died. The cumulative incidence and mortality rates were 5650.3 cases and 252.6 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively. The index case of SARS-CoV-2 in Itapajé was diagnosed in March 2020. The first peak of cases and deaths occurred in May 2020. The second wave peaked in May 2021, with the highest number of deaths in March 2021. According to the spatial analysis, the highest density of cases and deaths occurred in the central urban areas. In these areas, there were also the clusters of highest risk according to the spatio-temporal analyses. The municipal government issued 69 decrees on restriction measures, surveillance, and the maintenance of social isolation as a response to the pandemic. The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Itapajé mirrored the dynamics in large metropolitan regions, going from central neighborhoods of low socio-economic status to the wealthier peripheries.

The Role of Trust as a Driver of Private-Provider Participation in Disease Surveillance: Cross-Sectional Survey From Nigeria.

Recognition of the importance of valid, real-time knowledge of infectious disease risk has renewed scrutiny into private providers' intentions, motives, and obstacles to comply with an Integrated Disease Surveillance Response (IDSR) framework. Appreciation of how private providers' attitudes shape their tuberculosis (TB) notification behaviors can yield lessons for the surveillance of emerging pathogens, antibiotic stewardship, and other crucial public health functions. Reciprocal trust among actors and institutions is an understudied part of the "software" of surveillance. We aimed to assess the self-reported knowledge, motivation, barriers, and TB case notification behavior of private health care providers to public health authorities in Lagos, Nigeria. We measured the concordance between self-reported notification, TB cases found in facility records, and actual notifications received. A representative, stratified sample of 278 private health care workers was surveyed on TB notification attitudes, behavior, and perceptions of public health authorities using validated scales. Record reviews were conducted to identify the TB treatment provided and facility case counts were abstracted from the records. Self-reports were triangulated against actual notification behavior for 2016. The complex health system framework was used to identify potential predictors of notification behavior. Noncompliance with the legal obligations to notify infectious diseases was not attributable to a lack of knowledge. Private providers who were uncomfortable notifying TB cases via the IDSR system scored lower on the perceived benevolence subscale of trust. Health care workers who affirmed "always" notifying via IDSR monthly reported higher median trust in the state's public disease control capacity. Although self-reported notification behavior was predicted by age, gender, and positive interaction with public health bodies, the self-report numbers did not tally with actual TB notifications. Providers perceived both risks and benefits to recording and reporting TB cases. To improve private providers' public health behaviors, policy makers need to transcend instrumental and transactional approaches to surveillance to include building trust in public health, simplifying the task, and enhancing the link to improved health. Renewed attention to the "software" of health systems (eg, norms, values, and relationships) is vital to address pandemic threats. Surveys with private providers may overestimate their actual participation in public health surveillance.

Primary Health Care and Tuberculosis Detection during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Crucial Actions for Intensifying Efforts.

Tuberculosis has been considered a global emergency since 1993, and controlling it has become even more challenging since 2020 due to the health and social crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis case detection activities within primary health Care in the largest city in Brazil. This is a cross-sectional and analytical study on the provision of tuberculosis detection actions in primary healthcare units during the pandemic period. A descriptive analysis was performed for characterization, and Generalized Mixed Models were used for evaluating associations, with a Bonferroni post hoc test applied. The study sample comprised 80 health units in the municipality. There was a moderate alteration level in the provision of consultations for individuals with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis in 2020 (13.8%) and in 2021 (15.1%). Statistical significance (p < 0.05) was found between the pandemic period and detection actions, with a lower alteration level in 2022. Tuberculosis detection activities underwent changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly in 2020, which was associated with alterations in consultation and case notification provision.

Spatial-temporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in Shandong Province, China, 2016–2022

BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) signals a recurring risk in Eurasia in recent years owing to its continued rise in case notifications and the extension of geographical distribution. This study was undertaken to investigate the spatiotemporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of HFRS transmission in Shandong Province.MethodsThe epidemiological data for HFRS, meteorological data and socioeconomic data were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, and Shandong Statistical Yearbook, respectively. The spatial-temporal multicomponent model was employed to analyze the values of spatial-temporal components and the heterogeneity of HFRS transmission across distinct regions.ResultsThe total effect values of the autoregressive, epidemic, and endemic components were 0.451, 0.187, and 0.033, respectively, exhibiting significant heterogeneity across various cities. This suggested a pivotal role of the autoregressive component in propelling HFRS transmission in Shandong Province. The epidemic component of Qingdao, Weifang, Yantai, Weihai, and Jining declined sharply at the onset of 2020. The random effect identified distinct incidence levels associated with Qingdao and Weifang, signifying regional variations in HFRS occurrence.ConclusionsThe autoregressive component emerged as a significant driver in the transmission of HFRS in Shandong Province. Targeted preventive measures should be strategically implemented across various regions, taking into account the predominant component influencing the epidemic.

Deployment of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System during the 2022-23 mpox outbreak in the United States-Opportunities and challenges with case notifications during public health emergencies.

Timely case notifications following the introduction of an uncommon pathogen, such as mpox, are critical for understanding disease transmission and for developing and implementing effective mitigation strategies. When Massachusetts public health officials notified the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a confirmed orthopoxvirus case on May 17, 2023, which was later confirmed as mpox at CDC, mpox was not a nationally notifiable disease. Because existing processes for new data collections through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System were not well suited for implementation during emergency responses at the time of the mpox outbreak, several interim notification approaches were established to capture case data. These interim approaches were successful in generating daily case counts, monitoring disease transmission, and identifying high-risk populations. However, the approaches also required several data collection approvals by the federal government and the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the use of four different case report forms, and the establishment of complex data management and validation processes involving data element mapping and record-level de-duplication steps. We summarize lessons learned from these interim approaches to inform and improve case notifications during future outbreaks. These lessons reinforce CDC's Data Modernization Initiative to work in close collaboration with state, territorial, and local public health departments to strengthen case-based surveillance prior to the next public health emergency.

Gaps in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis: a review of reported cases, South Africa, January 2020-June 2022.

Congenital syphilis (CS) is preventable through timely antenatal care (ANC), syphilis screening and treatment among pregnant women. Robust CS surveillance can identify gaps in this prevention cascade. We reviewed CS cases reported to the South African notifiable medical conditions surveillance system (NMCSS) from January 2020 to June 2022. CS cases are reported using a case notification form (CNF) containing limited infant demographic and clinical characteristics. During January 2020-June 2022, healthcare workers supplemented CNFs with a case investigation form (CIF) containing maternal and infant testing and treatment information. We describe CS cases with/without a matching CIF and gaps in the CS prevention cascade among those with clinical information. During January 2020-June 2022, 938 CS cases were reported to the NMCSS with a median age of 1 day (interquartile range: 0-5). Nine percent were diagnosed based on clinical signs and symptoms only. During January 2020-June 2022, 667 CIFs were reported with 51% (343) successfully matched to a CNF. Only 57% of mothers of infants with a matching CIF had an ANC booking visit (entry into ANC). Overall, 87% of mothers were tested for syphilis increasing to 98% among mothers with an ANC booking visit. Median time between first syphilis test and delivery was 16 days overall increasing to 82 days among mothers with an ANC booking visit. Only 37% of CS cases had accompanying clinical information to support evaluation of the prevention cascade. Mothers with an ANC booking visit had increased syphilis screening and time before delivery to allow for adequate treatment.

Tuberculosis Case Finding in Kulon Progo District, Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Passive versus Active Case Finding Using Mobile Chest X-ray.

Active-case finding (ACF) using chest X-ray is an essential method of finding and diagnosing Tuberculosis (TB) cases that may be missed in Indonesia's routine TB case finding. This study compares active and passive TB case-finding strategies. A retrospective study of TB case notification was conducted. Data between 1 January and 31 December 2021, was used. The population in this study were TB cases notified from Kulon Progo District health facilities, including those found through routine activities or active-case findings. A total of 249 TB cases were diagnosed in Kulon Progo in 2021, and 102 (41%) were bacteriologically confirmed. The TB patients' ages ranged from 0 to 85 years (median 52, IQR 31-61). The majority of cases were male (59%, 147/249) and mostly among people aged 15-59 (61.4%, 153/249). The proportion of clinical TB diagnoses among cases found from active-case findings was 74.7% (68/91) while the proportion among passive-case findings was 50% (79/158). Active-case finding contributed 91 (36.5%) TB cases to the total cases detected in Kulon Progo in 2021. The use of chest X-rays in active-case findings likely contributed to the detection of a higher proportion of clinical TB than in passive-case findings.

Evaluation of a population-wide, systematic screening initiative for tuberculosis on Daru island, Western Province, Papua New Guinea

BackgroundA population-wide, systematic screening initiative for tuberculosis (TB) was implemented on Daru island in the Western Province of Papua New Guinea, where TB is known to be highly prevalent. The initiative used a mobile van equipped with a digital X-ray device, computer-aided detection (CAD) software to identify TB-related abnormalities on chest radiographs, and GeneXpert machines for follow-on diagnostic testing. We describe the results of the TB screening initiative, evaluate its population-level impact and examine risk factors associated with TB detection.MethodsThrough a retrospective review of screening data, we assessed the effectiveness of the screening by examining the enrolment coverage and the proportion of people with TB among screened subjects. A cascade analysis was performed to illustrate the flow of participants in the screening algorithm. We conducted univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with TB. Furthermore, we estimated the number of additional cases detected by the project by examining the trend of routine TB case notifications during the intervention period, compared to the historical baseline cases and trend-adjusted expected cases.ResultsOf the island’s 18,854 residents, 8,085 (42.9%) were enrolled and 7,970 (98.6%) had chest X-ray interpreted by the CAD4TB software. A total of 1,116 (14.0%) participants were considered to have abnormal CXR. A total of 69 Xpert-positive cases were diagnosed, resulting in a detection rate of 853 per 100 000 population screened. 19.4% of people with TB had resistance to rifampicin. People who were in older age groups (aOR 6.6, 95%CI: 1.5–29.1 for the 45–59 age group), were severely underweight (aOR 2.5, 95%CI:1.0-6.1) or underweight (aOR 2.1, 95%CI: 1.1–3.8), lived in households < 5 people (aOR 3.4, 95%CI:1.8–6.6) and had a past history of TB (aOR 2.1, 95%CI: 1.2–3.6) were more likely to have TB. The number of bacteriologically confirmed TB notified during the intervention period was 79.3% and 90.8% higher than baseline notifications and forecasted notifications, respectively.ConclusionThe screening project demonstrated its effectiveness with the high Xpert-positive TB prevalence among the participants and by successfully yielding additional cases of bacteriologically confirmed TB including rifampicin-resistant TB. The results and lessons learnt from the project should inform future TB screening initiatives in Papua New Guinea.

IJCM_256A: Trend in Tuberculosis Notification in Solapur district: Analysis from 2015 to 2022

Background: India contributes approximately 25% of the missing cases of tuberculosis (TB) globally. Even though ~50% of patients with TB are diagnosed and treated within India’s private sector, few are notified to the public healthcare system. India’s TB notification policy mandates that all patients with TB are notified through Nikshay (TB notification portal). We undertook this study to assess how mandatory notification has influenced the number of TB cases reported in the Nikshay portal from the private sector from Solapur district between 2015 and 2022. Objective: To evaluate the contribution of mandatory notification in enhancing TB notification in Solapur district between 2015 and 2022. Methodology: This study employed a quantitative observational approach, using record-based data extracted from the laboratory register and the Nikshay portal. The analysis period spanned from 2015 to 2022, allowing for an in- depth evaluation of TB notification trends before and after the implementation of the mandatory notification policy in 2018. Data was compiled and analysed using MS-Excel. Frequencies, means, and proportions used to effectively describe tuberculosis (TB) case notifications in both the private and public sectors were used. Results: Between 2015 and 2022, Solapur district experienced a variable but overall increasing trend in TB notification rates. In 2015, the TB notification rate was 58.15 per 100,000 population, which increased to 90.69 by 2022. The annual presumptive TB examination rates showed significant growth over the years. In 2015, the rate was 628 per 100,000 population, which escalated to 1965 by 2022. Conclusion: This rise is indicative of enhanced TB case detection, especially after the implementation of the mandatory notification policy and increase in presumptive TB examination rates is attributed to the rising use of advanced diagnostic methods such as CBNAAT and TrueNAT.

IJCM_286A: Will India able to bend the curve? TB Elimination in India by 2025

Background: Tuberculosis in India is a major public health problem. The National Strategic Plan 2017-2025 aims to achieve a rapid decline in burden of TB, morbidity and mortality while working towards elimination of TB in India by 2025. By proper care and treatment of TB patients, the battle against TB can be won. In the current scenario, forecasting of Tuberculosis incidence and annual case notification rate could help policy makers in planning an effective intervention at the right time keeping in mind the target for TB elimination. Objectives: 1) To study the trend of Tuberculosis in India. 2) To forecast the incidence and annual case notification rate due to Tuberculosis in India for next 3 years. Methodology: Data regarding the incidence and annual case notification rate were collected from the annual reports of Tuberculosis published by Central TB Division, Government of India. Data from the sources were collected in a data extraction sheet and entered in MS excel. Gretl software was used for data analysis. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used to select the best fitted model for available time series data and using the selected model incidence and annual case notification rate were forecasted for next 3 years. Results: The study showed an upward trend in incidence and annual case notification rate in the sampling and post sampling period. According to the forecast, for the year 2025 the incidence of Tuberculosis will be 28.36 lakhs (95%CI- 26.4886, 32.8556) and annual case notification rate will be 178 (95%CI- 144, 211). Conclusion: There is an upward trend of Tuberculosis incidence and annual case notification rate in India in forecasted period. To achieve the set targets, the policy makers need to plan and implement more effective interventions at the right time.

Epidemiology of and programmatic response to tuberculosis in Solomon Islands: analysis of surveillance data, 2016-2022.

To identify progress and challenges in the national response to tuberculosis (TB) in Solomon Islands through an epidemiological overview of TB in the country. A descriptive analysis was conducted using the national TB surveillance data for 2016-2022. Case notifications, testing data, treatment outcomes and screening activities were analysed. The number of case notifications was 343 in 2022, with an average annual reduction of the case notification rate between 2016 and 2022 of 4.7%. The highest case notification rate was reported by Honiara City Council (126/100 000 population) in 2022. The number of people with presumptive TB tested by Xpert® rapidly increased from zero in 2016 to 870 in 2022. Treatment success rate remained consistently high between 2016 and 2022, ranging from 92% to 96%. Screening for HIV and diabetes mellitus (DM) among TB patients in 2022 was 14% and 38%, respectively. Most patients (97%) were hospitalized during the intensive phase of treatment in 2022; in contrast, during the continuation phase, the proportion of patients treated at the community level increased from 1% in 2016 to 63% in 2022. Despite an increase in household contact investigations, from 381 in 2016 to 707 in 2021, the uptake of TB preventive treatment (TPT) was minimal (7% among eligible child contacts). This epidemiological analysis in Solomon Islands reveals both notable achievements and challenges in the country's TB programme. One major achievement is a potential actual reduction in TB incidence. Challenges identified were potential underdetection of cases in rural areas, suboptimal community-based care, and insufficient contact tracing and uptake of TPT. It is crucial to address these challenges (e.g. by optimizing resources) to advance the national TB response.

Cross Sectional Study on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis among the District of Sudhnuti, Azad Jammu and Kashmir

Globally, tuberculosis (TB) is a major health risk that is mostly caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a member of the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Complex (MTC). Ten million cases of tuberculosis and 1.3 million deaths from the disease occur each year, making Mycobacterium tuberculosis one of the leading causes of death globally. Pakistan is ranked fifth among high-burden countries for tuberculosis (TB) and is expected to rank fourth for the prevalence of multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. As a result, tuberculosis poses a serious threat to public health in Pakistan. Tuberculosis is a common occurrence in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Aims: The current study aimed to find out the prevalence of tuberculosis in the defined population. Study Design: The study was conducted in the District and Tehsil Headquarters Hospitals of District Sudhnuti AJK. Place and Duration of Study: Samples were collected from all the District and Tehsil headquarters hospitals of Sudhnuti district from January 2019 to December 2019. Methodology: Samples of sputum from suspected cases were gathered from district Sudhnuti hospitals and TB centers from January 2019 to December 2019. All the suspected cases were examined by sputum smear microscopy and then bacteriologically positive cases were further confirmed by GeneXpert. All positive cases were examined for multi-drug resistance by using GeneXpert. Results: In the current study during the year 2019, 201 TB cases were reported from district Sudhnuti out of which 107 (53.23%) were males and 94 (46.76%) were females. The value of P=0.51 which is &gt;0.05 is insignificant shows that Tuberculosis has no selective effect on a specific gender. Pulmonary cases were 131 in number with 81 bacteriologically positive and 50 clinically diagnosed negative cases. Extra Pulmonary cases were 70 in number with 1 bacteriologically positive and 69 clinically diagnosed negative cases. Only 2 (0.99%) MDR cases were diagnosed and the case notification rate during 2019 was 66. Conclusion: The current study shows that males are slightly more prone to TB in district Sudhnuti AJK as compared to females. Individuals with age &gt;64 are more susceptible to TB when compared to individuals with age &lt;15. The CNR during 2019 is 66 which is far away from the WHO set criteria. The CNR indicates that there is a need for improvement in the surveillance system.

Tuberculosis case notifications and outcomes in Peruvian prisons prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national-level interrupted time series analysis

Tuberculosis case notifications and outcomes in Peruvian prisons prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national-level interrupted time series analysis