Association between ambient temperature and risk of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2011 to 2019

Abstract

ABSTRACT Previous studies on temperature and infectious diseases primarily focused on individual disease types, yielding inconsistent conclusions. This study collected monthly data on notifiable infectious disease cases and meteorological variables across 7 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases within each province, and random meta-analysis was applied to evaluate the pooled effect. Extreme hot temperature (the 97.5th percentile) was positively associated with the risk of respiratory infectious diseases with the relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.01–2.08). Conversely, extreme cold temperature (the 2.5th percentile) was negatively associated with intestinal infectious diseases and zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases, reporting RRs of 0.43 (95%CI: 0.30–0.60) and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.38–0.57), respectively. This study described the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases with different transmission routes, informing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for temperature-related infectious diseases.