Carter Method Research Articles

Somatotype and body composition profiles of children and adolescent male basketball players.

Somatotype and body composition (BC) are related to athletes' physical fitness and performance. The aims of this study were (a) to determine the somatotype and BC profiles of children and adolescent male basketball players and (b) to investigate the relationship between somatotype and BC. Four hundred forty-nine children and adolescent male basketball players between the ages of 7-17 participated in the study voluntarily. Somatotype scores were determined according to the Heath & Carter method, and BC was evaluated by the bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) method. Pearson correlation test was used to determine the relationship between somatotype and BC. A significant positive relationship between body mass (BM), body fat (BF), body mass index (BMI), and fat mass (FM) with endomorphy and mesomorphy scores; a significant negative relationship between body height (BH) with endomorphy and mesomorphy scores were found. In addition, ectomorphy scores were significantly positively correlated with BH and negative with other parameters. This current research shows that as age increases, BH, BM, BMI, and FM increase, and BF, endomorphy, and mesomorphy scores decrease. With increasing age, the somatotype score changes from endomorphic mesomorphy (5-7-2) to balanced mesomorphy (3-6-3). The comprehensive data presented in this study can serve as a reference value and be used as an indicator for children and adolescent basketball coaches.

Modeling and prediction of age-specific mortality rates using the Lee–Carter model

BACKGROUND: High mortality remains one of the most significant health concerns in Russia. One of the priorities of the state policy is to reduce mortality rates among the working-age population and increase life expectancy. Predicting population mortality rates serves as a valuable tool for effectively allocating the available resources. AIM: To perform mathematical modeling and prediction of mortality rates of the population of the Orenburg region using the Lee–Carter model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The age- and sex-specific mortality rates and the population size of the Orenburg region for the period 1991–2020 was used as a study base. The Lee–Carter method was applied to model and predict population mortality. By deriving key parameters, a random walk model with drift was developed, and an accuracy assessment was performed. RESULTS: The Lee-Carter model has been utilized to analyze the mortality rates of the male population in the Orenburg region. Through this modeling process, an accuracy rate of 87% was achieved, providing a reliable basis for long-term prediction. Mortality forecasts have been generated up to the year 2035, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of future trends in the region. CONCLUSION: The analysis of the results indicates that the pandemic's impact on population mortality is expected to be short-term. In the upcoming years, the mortality rate of the male population in the Orenburg region is projected to continue decreasing.

Higher-dimensional MOG dark compact object: shadow behaviour in the light of EHT observations

Consideration of extra spatial dimensions is motivated by the unification of gravity with other interactions, the achievement of the ultimate framework of quantum gravity, and fundamental problems in particle physics and cosmology. Much attention has been focused on the effect of these extra dimensions on the modified theories of gravity. Analytically examining astrophysical phenomena like black hole shadows is one approach to understand how extra dimensions would affect the modified gravitational theories. The purpose of this study is to derive a higher-dimensional metric for a dark compact object in STVG theory and then examine the behaviour of the shadow shapes for this solution in STVG theory in higher dimensions. We apply the Carter method to formulate the geodesic equations and the Hamilton–Jacobi method to find photon orbits around this higher-dimensional MOG dark compact object. We investigate the effects of extra dimensions and the STVG parameter α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha $$\\end{document} on the black hole’s shadow size. Next, we compare the shadow radius of this higher-dimensional MOG dark compact object to the shadow size of the supermassive black hole M87*, which has been realized by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaborations, in order to restrict these parameters. We find that extra dimensions in the STVG theory typically lead to a reduction in the shadow size of the higher-dimensional MOG dark compact object, whereas the effect of parameter α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha $$\\end{document} on this black hole’s shadow is suppressible. Remarkably, given the constraints from EHT observations, we find that the shadow size of the four-dimensional MOG dark compact object lies in the confidence levels of the EHT data. Finally, we investigate the issue of acceleration bounds in higher-dimensional MOG dark compact object in confrontation with EHT data of M87*.

Forecasting Age- and Sex-Specific Survival Functions: Application to Annuity Pricing

We introduce the function principal component regression (FPCR) forecasting method to model and forecast age-specific survival functions observed over time. The age distribution of survival functions is an example of constrained data whose values lie within a unit interval. Because of the constraint, such data do not reside in a linear vector space. A natural way to deal with such a constraint is through an invertible logit transformation that maps constrained onto unconstrained data in a linear space. With a time series of unconstrained data, we apply a functional time-series forecasting method to produce point and interval forecasts. The forecasts are then converted back to the original scale via the inverse logit transformation. Using the age- and sex-specific survival functions for Australia, we investigate the point and interval forecast accuracies for various horizons. We conclude that the functional principal component regression (FPCR) provides better forecast accuracy than the Lee–Carter (LC) method. Therefore, we apply FPCR to calculate annuity pricing and compare it with the market annuity price.

Effect of somatotypes on lung volumes, capacities and respiratory impedance: A pilot study.

The current morphological condition of an individual is described by a somatotype, which is a three-number scale. The endomorph, mesomorph and ectomorph components are presented in the same sequence, and each number corresponds to one of the three basic components of body composition. We recruited 50 healthy male subjects with a mean age of 24.10 ± 4.55 yrs. Somatotype was determined by the Heath and Carter method. Impulse oscillometry was performed followed by spirometry according to the European Respiratory Society (ERS) or American Thoracic Society (ATS) guidelines. Resistance at 5 Hz (R5) %pred, R20%pred, R5-R20, X5%pred, X20, area of reactance (Ax) and resonant frequency (Fres) were obtained by doing impulse oscillometry. Slow vital capacity (SVC), forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), FEV1/FVC ratio and maximum mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) were assessed by doing spirometry. Endomorphs (0.05 (0.00-0.09) vs 0.01 (0.00-0.04); P < 0.0001) and mesomorphs (0.04 (0.000.09) vs 0.01 (0.00-0.04); P = 0.002) had significantly higher R5-R20 than ectomorphs. Similarly, endomorphs (0.32 (0.07-0.82) vs 0.15 (0.08-0.35); P = 0.001) and mesomorphs (0.28 (0.17-0.64) vs 0.15 (0.08-0.35); P = 0.015) also showed significantly higher Ax than ectomorphs, Fres of endomorphs (15.37 (8.43-21.85) vs 10.08 (8.94-14.30); P < 0.0001) and mesomorphs (14.32 (10.24-20.86) vs 10.08 (8.94-14.30); P < 0.0001) were significantly high than ectomorphs. Moreover, spirometric measures reveal significant variation in which mesomorphs had significantly higher values of % predicted of FVC than ectomorphs (92.49 ± 7.211 vs 83.86 ± 7.861; P = 0.042) and the ratio of FEV1 to FVC was significantly higher in ectomorphs than in endomorphs (89.00 ± 5.80 vs 85.04 ± 5.73; P = 0.03). Peripheral airway dysfunction was observed in endomorphs and mesomorphs as compared to ectomorphs. Mesomorphs had a relatively higher FVC that may be due to their greater muscular strength.

Investigation of Carter method for locating slip surfaces and its performance on varying slope conditions

Assessment of slope internal deformation has been regarded as a crucial factor in the investigation of landslide scale and its run-out distance. The information on the ground surface is easier to obtain by generating UAV and SAR data while investigating slip surfaces beneath the ground surface is costly and time-consuming. Carter and Bentley (1985) proposed a simple method, which utilizes ground surface measurement to estimate the position and shape of the slip surface and has been applied in the field study in recent years. However, the applicability of Carter’s method has not been investigated comprehensively due to the difficulty of gathering data beneath the ground surface. In order to gather comprehensive data on slope deformation in the entire landslide process, a numerical model of the material point method (MPM) is adopted to simulate landslide failure in varied slope angle, which is 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90°. In this study, numerical simulations are conducted to investigate the performance of Carter’s method in predicting slip surfaces under different slope angles. The performance of Carter’s method was evaluated by the concordance correlation coefficient, and the results indicated that the located sliding surface by Carter’s method shows a well-predicted capability.

Research on the Carter Method for the location of sliding surfaces based on a numerical study

In order to investigate the potential location and magnitude of a landslide, the information regarding the location and shape of the sliding surface is important. However, obtaining such information through underground investigations is costly and time-consuming. A method proposed by Carter and Bentley (1985) provides an approach to predict the sliding surface based on ground surface information. With help of advanced techniques such as UAVs and SAR satellites, Carter’s method has been utilized in field sites of potential landslide areas recently. Geophysical surveys and drilling data are commonly used validation data, but the temporal and spatial resolutions of these data are rough and rare. For this problem, this study generated high temporal and spatial resolution data of landslide behaviour by a physically based model and these data were utilized to investigate the capability and limitations of Carter’s method. Firstly, a scenario of slope failure on a 30-degree slope was performed by a numerical model using the material point method (MPM). Next, Carter’s method was applied to predicted the sliding surface using ground surface data obtained from the MPM simulation, and the results were compared with the sliding surface data from the MPM simulation. Finally, we perform an error analysis using the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to assess the reliability of Carter’s method. The findings of this study contribute to understanding the capabilities and limitations of Carter’s method in landslide analysis and provide insights for improving landslide risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

The impact of weightlifting training on the somatotype of male students: a one-year study

The sedentary lifestyle of students during online learning has been linked to negative effects on somatometry, including somatotype and other anthropometric characteristics. Online education can lead to increased sedentary behavior and reduced physical activity levels, which may significantly affect the physical form and body composition of students.&#x0D; In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential of engaging in heavy athletics training to positively influence the somatotype of male students aged 18-19 years. We conducted a year-long pedagogical observation involving 47 male students from various universities in Kharkiv who had no prior experience in sports. Among them, 22 participants engaged in heavy athletics training and constituted the experimental group, while the control group consisted of students who remained inactive during the observation period. Somatometric measurements were collected using the Carter method, which assesses somatotype based on three main anthropometric components in different age groups, including height-weight ratios, bone diameters, volumetric dimensions, and skinfold thickness. The somatotype was represented numerically as a combination of these components.&#x0D; At the onset of the study, there were no significant differences in somatometric measurements between the control and experimental groups. However, after one year, the experimental group showed a considerable increase in the mesomorphic component and a decrease in the endomorphic component compared to the control group. While the ectomorphic component did not exhibit significant differences between the groups.&#x0D; The findings indicate that male students who engaged in heavy athletics training demonstrated significant improvements in their somatotype over the course of one year by increasing their mesomorphic component and reducing their endomorphic component. On the other hand, non-active peers experienced a notable increase in their endomorphic component during the same period.&#x0D; In conclusion, this study highlights the potential of heavy athletics training to positively impact the body composition of male students and emphasizes the need for further research to explore the underlying mechanisms. The results provide valuable insights into promoting physical activity among young adults during online learning and have implications for fostering healthier lifestyles among the student population.

Сorrelation between somatotypes and body fat changes in patients with liver cirrhosis

Objective. To evaluate the nature of changes in body fat composition in cirrhotic patients of various somatotypes.Materials and methods. The data of 46 cirrhotic patients and 20 volunteers were analyzed. Anthropometric examination was carried out according to methodological requirements with assessing the body composition of patients by means of bioimpedance analysis using ABC-01 Medass system (NTC Medass, Russia). Somatotypes were determined according to the Heath–Carter method. Ranks for the somatotype scale were assigned as endomorphy scores increased. Spearman rank correlation was used to identify the relationships between the variables. Differences between continuous variables were determined using the Mann–Whitney test. Statistical analysis was performed using Statistica 10 (StatSoft Inc., USA).Results. Child–Pugh scores for men and women were 9 (7.3–11.8) and 7 (6–9), respectively. Body fat percentage (BFP) of cirrhotic patients accounted for 27.7% (23.3–33) in men and 41.2% (33.6–46.3) in women. In healthy volunteers, the BFP was 21.9% (13.9–26.3) in men and 32.7% (29.3–41.6) in women. Assessment of the relationships between liver cirrhosis severity and body fat was characterized by a correlation coefficient of r = -0.47528 (p-value &lt; 0.001). A significant negative correlation was determined between the liver cirrhosis severity according to Child–Pugh scores and somatotypes (r = -0.30536, p = 0.03905).Conclusion. The results of this study emphasize the correlation between somatotypes and changes in BFP in patients with liver cirrhosis of various degrees of severity. The sum of Child–Pugh scores and endomorphic indicators demonstrated the inverse relationship, which must be taken into account when developing mathematical models of the personalized prognosis of liver cirrhosis.

Bioelectrical Impedance Vector Analysis (BIVA) and Somatotype in Female Rugby Players

Body composition (BC) determines strength, power, and agility in sports such as rugby. Not only is the study of morphology and BC essential to establish player positions, but it also allows the optimisation of competitive performance. The aim of this study was to analyse different BC models (anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA)) in a female rugby team. Their somatotype was also compared with a bioelectrical impedance vector analysis (BIVA) graph. A cross-sectional study was carried out on 19 women (8 forwards and 11 backs). Anthropometric and BIA (50 kHz, tetrapolar electrode configuration) measurements were taken using standard protocols and BC was estimated. Somatotype was calculated using the Heath–Carter method. Classic and specific BIVA were applied. Student’s t, Mann–Whitney, or Chi-squared tests were used for variable comparisons. Agreement was determined via intraclass coefficient correlations. Forwards showed a higher BMI and fat mass, but there were no differences in skeletal muscle masses. Most of the players were of an endomorphic mesomorph somatotype. Specific BIVA, but not classic BIVA, detected BC differences according to player position. Moreover, an individual’s interpretation of BIVA was consistent with their somatotype. In a female rugby team, BC and morphology are different according to position. This was detected in both the somatotype and specific BIVA. The application of BIVA (classic and specific) may yet prove to be a very useful strategy for the study of BC in sports.

The Lee–Carter method and probabilistic population forecasts

The Lee–Carter method and probabilistic population forecasts

Why the Lee–Carter model? A discussion of “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

Why the Lee–Carter model? A discussion of “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

A rejoinder to “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

A rejoinder to “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

Discussion of “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

Discussion of “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality”

Вплив COVID-19 на смертність і тривалість життя в Україні в 2020—2021 рр.

With the increasing intensity of movement of people between countries and continents, humanity has become more vulnerable to the spread of diseases on a global scale. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a significant shift in the mortality structure of the population and tangible losses in average life expectancy. Governments of different countries have responded differently to this challenge. Therefore, it is relevant to compare the experience of Ukraine against the other countries. The purpose of this article is to analyze and quantify the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and life expectancy in Ukraine. The novelty is an estimate of the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ukraine by different methods based on the data for the complete years 2020-2021. Methods of calculation and analysis of demographic indicators, life tables, graphic method, decomposition method, and Lee—Carter method were used. The existing definitions of excess mortality are analyzed. Based on the use of 6 methods it is determined that the pandemic led to an increase in the number of deaths in Ukraine (without Donbas and Crimea) from 92.7 to 241.5 thousand. Most estimates fall into the range of 147.5-224.2 thousand. It is shown that the biggest number of excess deaths is observed in older age groups, especially 65-84 years. The highest loss of life potential occurred in the 65-74 age group. In 2020-2021, life expectancy at birth for women decreased by 2.62 years, while for men the reduction was 1.77 years. The increase in mortality from COVID-19 resulted in a loss of 1.91 and 1.51 years, respectively. In 2020-2021, a sharp increase in mortality from respiratory diseases was recorded. It is shown that mortality from this class of diseases has a direct strong (correlation coefficient 0.91) and significant (p&lt; 0.001) correlation with mortality from COVID-19. The relationship between these causes of death is supported by a similar effect on the age pattern of life expectancy losses. The increase in the overall male mortality rate was significantly mitigated by decrease in mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases, as well as external causes of death. Women, due to their much lower mortality rates from these classes of causes, have a markedly lower potential for improvement in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to expand and facilitate access to professional medical care and not limit it, as was done during lockdowns and quarantines.

A New Strategy for Somatotype Assessment Using Bioimpedance Analysis: Stratification According to Sex.

Body composition assessment is a relevant element in the biomedical field, in research and daily practice in the medical and nutritional fields, and in the management of athletes. This paper aimed to operate in an Italian sample investigating the possibility of predicting the somatotype from bioimpedance analysis and comparing the predicted results with those obtained from anthropometric measurements. This observational study was conducted with retrospective data collected from 2827 subjects. The somatotype of each subject was calculated both with the Heath–Carter method and by a multiple regression model based on bioimpedance and anthropometric parameters. Somatotypes (endomorph, mesomorph, and ectomorph) were predicted with a high goodness of fit (R2 adjusted > 0.80). Two different somatocharts were obtained from anthropometric measures and bioimpedance parameters and subsequentially compared. Bland–Altman plots showed acceptable accuracy. This study could be a first step in developing a new approach that allows the detection of a subject’s somatotype via bioimpedance analysis, stratified according to sex, with a time-saving and more standardized procedure. It would allow, for example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, to minimize operator–patient contact in having measurements.

Does Dominant Somatotype Differentiate Performance of Jumping and Sprinting Variables in Young Healthy Adults?

The relationship between an athlete’s somatotype three-numeral rating and his or her athletic performance is well known. However, a direct effect of the different dominant somatotype on jumping and sprinting variables has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of dominant somatotype on sport-specific explosive variables. One hundred and twelve physically active young adults (mean ± standard deviation age: 21.82 ± 3.18 years) were somatotype-rated using the Heath–Carter method. Participants were classified as balanced ectomorph, balanced mesomorph, central, mesomorph-endomorph, and mesomorphic ectomorph. Vertical jump and linear sprint tests were performed to measure peak lower body performance and sprint variables (time, speed, and momentum), respectively. The analysis revealed that balanced mesomorph had significantly higher vertical jump (effect size (ES) = 1.10, p = 0.005) and power to body mass (ES = 1.04, p = 0.023) than mesomorph-endomorph. In addition, balanced mesomorph showed significantly superior performance in 30-m sprint time and velocity than central and mesomorph-endomorph (ES range = 0.93–1, p < 0.05). Finally, balanced ectomorph (ES = 1.12, p = 0.009) and mesomorphic ectomorph (ES = 1.10, p = 0.017) were lower in sprint momentum compared to balanced mesomorphs. In conclusion, this study has shown the importance of the interaction between subtypes and athletic performance. The knowledge gained may be important in identifying those who tend to perform well in sports with explosive power and in prescribing training programs.

A comparative study of the time of concentration methods for designing urban drainage infrastructure

Abstract The time of concentration (ToC) is an important parameter in rainfall−runoff simulation for designing and evaluating an urban drainage system (UDS). There are several lumped and distributed methods available in the literature for estimating the ToC. However, these methods lead to significantly varied values. Therefore, it is imperative to choose an appropriate and best-suited method for estimating the ToC. This study analyses eight lumped approach-based and two distributed approach-based methods for estimating the ToC in an urban area of Gurugram, a satellite city in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi in India. Considering the ToC obtained by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) method as the ‘true’ value, the Carter method among lumped methods and the SWDM method between the distributed methods results in ToC values in agreement with the NRCS method. Furthermore, to study the impact of the underestimation or overestimation of ToC on drainage, the system is evaluated in terms of variation in flood volume, duration, peak discharge, and the time to peak for different ToC values. The simulations were carried out by setting the model in SWMM, and it was found that flood volume increases by 4.25 times and the duration increases by 7.25 times if the ToC is increased from 0.1 to 6.14 h. The results infer that ToC estimation methods significantly impact the design and performance of an urban drainage infrastructure.

Effect of somatotype on the general physical fitness tests and throwing velocity on handball

Aim: The study aimed to investigate the effects of the somatotype components on handball. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 elite junior handball players. Somatotype was evaluated using the Heath & Carter method. The kinetic performance trials of the handball athletes were running speed performance over 5 m 10 m and 20 m sprints, sit and reach, standing long jump (SLJ), ball velocity, and maximum aerobic power. For the data analyses, we used Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression. Results: The endomorphic component correlated positive with all three sprint times (5 m, 10 m και 30 m sprints) (r = 0.315, p = 0.014; r = 0.367, p = 0.004; r = 0.358, p = 0.005 respectively) while negative with SLJ (r = -0.418, p = 0.001) και maximum aerobic power (r = -0.322, p = 0.012). The mesomorphic component had a positive correlation with ball velocity (r = 0.260, p = 0.045) and negative relation with SLJ (r = -0.261, p = 0.044). The ectomorphic component exhibited a negative correlation only with ball velocity (r = -0.260, p = 0.045). The ordinary least square regression models found that endomorphy and ectomorphy were prognostic factors and predicted worse performance in all of the examined motor performance indices except ball velocity and 5 m sprint, while mesomorphy was a predictor of worse performance in SLJ. Conclusions: In conclusion, according to the findings of this study, somatotype components play an important role in performance-related parameters.

Ultra-Trail Koşucularında Somatotip Rolü ve Performans

The aim of this study is to compare the somatotype of male running Ultra-trail race at different distances and to evaluate the race performance relationship. A total of 44 runners, average of age 45.64 ± 9.16 years; average of height 175.84 ± 6.18 cm; average of body weight 75.36 ± 7.46 kg, who ran distances of 13 km (n= 6), 30 km (n= 19), 66 km (n= 14) and 100 km (n= 5), participated voluntarily in the study. Heath &amp;amp; Carter method was used to determine the somatotypes of the runners. The running performance times were taken from the race results section on the organization's website. One-way ANOVA test was used to compare the running groups, and the Pearson correlation test was used for correlation analysis (p &amp;lt; 0.05). As a result, there was a significant difference in endomorph (p = 0.000) and mesomorph (p = 0.035) of the groups. Significant differences were observed between the endomorph of 13 km runners compared with 30 km (p = 0.003), 66 km (p = 0.002) and 100 km (p = 0.005) runners. It was found that those who run 13 km had more mass than those who run 30, 60 and 100 km, and as the distance increased, the endomorph and mesomorph values decreased, and the long-distance running athletes had a more linear physical structure. In Ultra Trail runs the somatotype differs according to the distance, and it can be said that the somatotype mesomorphic-ectomorph as the performance time and distance increases.