Вплив COVID-19 на смертність і тривалість життя в Україні в 2020—2021 рр.

Abstract

With the increasing intensity of movement of people between countries and continents, humanity has become more vulnerable to the spread of diseases on a global scale. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a significant shift in the mortality structure of the population and tangible losses in average life expectancy. Governments of different countries have responded differently to this challenge. Therefore, it is relevant to compare the experience of Ukraine against the other countries. The purpose of this article is to analyze and quantify the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and life expectancy in Ukraine. The novelty is an estimate of the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ukraine by different methods based on the data for the complete years 2020-2021. Methods of calculation and analysis of demographic indicators, life tables, graphic method, decomposition method, and Lee—Carter method were used. The existing definitions of excess mortality are analyzed. Based on the use of 6 methods it is determined that the pandemic led to an increase in the number of deaths in Ukraine (without Donbas and Crimea) from 92.7 to 241.5 thousand. Most estimates fall into the range of 147.5-224.2 thousand. It is shown that the biggest number of excess deaths is observed in older age groups, especially 65-84 years. The highest loss of life potential occurred in the 65-74 age group. In 2020-2021, life expectancy at birth for women decreased by 2.62 years, while for men the reduction was 1.77 years. The increase in mortality from COVID-19 resulted in a loss of 1.91 and 1.51 years, respectively. In 2020-2021, a sharp increase in mortality from respiratory diseases was recorded. It is shown that mortality from this class of diseases has a direct strong (correlation coefficient 0.91) and significant (p< 0.001) correlation with mortality from COVID-19. The relationship between these causes of death is supported by a similar effect on the age pattern of life expectancy losses. The increase in the overall male mortality rate was significantly mitigated by decrease in mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases, as well as external causes of death. Women, due to their much lower mortality rates from these classes of causes, have a markedly lower potential for improvement in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to expand and facilitate access to professional medical care and not limit it, as was done during lockdowns and quarantines.