ВЛИЯНИЕ ОСНОВНЫХ ПРИЧИН СМЕРТНОСТИ НА ОЖИДАЕМУЮ ПРОДОЛЖИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ ЖИЗНИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ИРКУТСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Abstract

Significance. The study on life expectancy of the population and its impact on the indicator of the leading causes of death is an important stage in the assessment and forecasting of socio-economic processes in individual administrative-territorial entities. Analysis of the dynamics in the indicator of average life expectancy provides the necessary information for developing an evidence-based demographic policy in the subject of the Russian Federation. Purpose of the study: to identify and explore the potential for increasing average life expectancy in the Irkutsk region. Material and methods. A continuous method was used to observe deaths by sex, age group, cause of death for 2005, 2010, 2019 in the Irkutsk region. We used methodology that included the indirect method of constructing tables of average life expectancy (ALE) or survival tables. We determined intensive indicators of mortality by class of causes and by individual nosological form. Based on the decomposition method we carried out calculations of ALE and the elimination reserve of the number of years of increase in life, subject to a 50% decrease in mortality rate with regard to classes 2,9,20 of the International Classification of Diseases No. 10 revision. Results. Dynamics in life expectancy among male and female population demonstrate the following: increase in life expectancy at birth among males equals to 6.6 years, and 4.2 years in females. Accordingly, the gap in life expectancy between women and men has narrowed from 14.2 years to 11.8 years. Assessment of the contribution of individual causes of death to the overall mortality and life expectancy among males and females shows that the following three classes play the leading role: diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and external causes of death. Calculation of the demographic gain (elimination reserve) shows that the class of diseases of diseases of the circulatory system is of highest significance for increasing life expectancy, while control over cerebrovascular diseases and acute myocardial infarction makes the highest contribution to increasing life expectance in the Irkutsk region Conclusion. The presented results made it possible to study age and gender characteristics of the most important demographic indicator of average life expectancy in male and female population. They are an important component in the development and substantiation of scientific programs aimed at improving demographic situation in the region.